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pinky166
10-22-2012, 09:28 PM
I really wish Aaron or Farris was given SA instead of Razzano...I don't care what Nationals results say, they are clearly much better skaters, and have the potential to go places in the future. For Farris it would have been a way to give him a second GP and a skater with the technical abilities of Aaron really deserves at least one assignment. It's silly to see Aaron competing at qualifying competitions and Farris skating at JGPs where they are so clearly above most of the rest of the field. But I guess USFS will do what it wants, maybe they want to make sure Farris and Aaron stick around for Pyeongchang...

judgejudy27
10-22-2012, 09:33 PM
I agree that Lysacek, Weir, and Abbott are skaters of the past, but where Sochi is so close, and most of the guys who appear to have real potential to go places in the future (in my opinion, Dornbush and Farris, as well as maybe Brown and Messing), USFS might favor the old guys just figuring that the young talented kids still have a shot at 2018, while for Johnny, Jeremy, and Evan, Sochi is clearly their last hope.

What is the point of that!?! Lets all concede the obvious, the US has no real medal shot in Sochi for the men with anyone, barring a drastic and unlikely quick huge improvement by one of the youngsters. So with that in mind it is better to send skaters who could be contenders for 2018 to gain some experience, credence with the judges, and early momentum. That is more fruitful than sending Evan, Jeremy, and Johnny to the Olympics to come 8th, 10th, and 13th and wave goobye just for the sake of it. With the vets having no medal opportunity and the Olympics not deciding spots for Worlds the next year, there is no benefit to sending them over the up and comers all things equal, even if the up and comers also probably have no medal opportunity.

Vash01
10-22-2012, 09:47 PM
IMO Ross Miner has a better chance than Dornbush, who totally unimpressed me at the last US nationals.

If Jeremy can get over his injury, he should still be the favorite for at least the USN title.

It's hard to say at this time what Evan and Johnny are capable of. I assume Johnny has a little more motivation to prove himself than Evan does.

pinky166
10-22-2012, 10:51 PM
What is the point of that!?! Lets all concede the obvious, the US has no real medal shot in Sochi for the men with anyone, barring a drastic and unlikely quick huge improvement by one of the youngsters. So with that in mind it is better to send skaters who could be contenders for 2018 to gain some experience, credence with the judges, and early momentum. That is more fruitful than sending Evan, Jeremy, and Johnny to the Olympics to come 8th, 10th, and 13th and wave goobye just for the sake of it. With the vets having no medal opportunity and the Olympics not deciding spots for Worlds the next year, there is no benefit to sending them over the up and comers all things equal, even if the up and comers also probably have no medal opportunity.

I agree, but clearly USFS has a different agenda. Look at their host picks for SA, Lysacek and Razzano? Instead of any one of Farris, Aaron, or Messing? Mahbanoozadeh finally got assigned but only as a last minute replacement. Clearly they are more invested in skaters like Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Rippon, and Miner compared to any of the guys I just mentioned despite being younger, stronger jumpers, and more likely to be competitive in the future. Farris's score at JGP Lake Placid, with one less step sequence, was way higher than any of the American guys at Skate America, as was Aaron's score at US Classic. So I guess what I'm saying is, here's an example of two guys who could have done very well for themselves at SA, 3rd place not being out of possibility if they skated up to the standard they have shown in some recent competitions, and yet the USFS chooses not to assign them. I think that's a pretty clear indication that USFS wants these kids to wait their turn because I guess they don't recognize the value in sending a talented youngster to Worlds and Olympics and having them place 10th, if they can send an old, past-prime veteran instead and have them also place 10th. Idk. It's dumb but I think, assuming they recognize the talent, there's a reason USFS is keeping Max Aaron and Keegan Messing out of the GP and convincing Josh Farris to stay on the JGP another season..

pinky166
10-22-2012, 10:54 PM
IMO Ross Miner has a better chance than Dornbush, who totally unimpressed me at the last US nationals.

If Jeremy can get over his injury, he should still be the favorite for at least the USN title.

It's hard to say at this time what Evan and Johnny are capable of. I assume Johnny has a little more motivation to prove himself than Evan does.

Ross may be given an edge to Dornbush due to the consistency he's shown in the past, but I feel like it's contingent upon the consistency of his 4s this season. Between the two, whoever has a more consistent quad (unless they completely self-destruct in competitions despite of this) will have the edge at Nationals. Right now, Dornbush's 4t seems more reliable than Miner's 4s, and he's trying 2 in his FS, so I'd say he's heavy edge for now, but that could change.

olympic
10-22-2012, 11:02 PM
IMO Ross Miner has a better chance than Dornbush, who totally unimpressed me at the last US nationals.

If Jeremy can get over his injury, he should still be the favorite for at least the USN title.

It's hard to say at this time what Evan and Johnny are capable of. I assume Johnny has a little more motivation to prove himself than Evan does.

But, if you looked at Dornbush at Glacier Falls and Finlandia, I would think he'd definitely have the edge unless, as Pinky said, Miner suddenly has a consistent 4S.

I agree that if Jeremy ever went clean he'd cream the competition, but whether it's injury or in his head, it's always something that derails him from being king of the hill

Nomad
10-23-2012, 12:37 AM
I think Dornbush can take the title this year if he puts together two clean programs and executes all his planned elements.

judgejudy27
10-23-2012, 12:45 AM
I agree that if Jeremy ever went clean he'd cream the competition, but whether it's injury or in his head, it's always something that derails him from being king of the hill

He has done this at Nationals and creamed the competition and could easily do it again this year. As for the World level that window has passed, too bad as he could have had Evan's World and Olympic Golds, but he had better put it all together at a Worlds or Olympics sometime extremely soon if he even wants to eke one bronze there before retiring (the max he would ever get now even with his best effort, and even then only if certain people miss).

Jammers
10-23-2012, 12:45 AM
We need to send the young kids to Sochi for the experience. Forget about Weir and Evan they have both gone to two Olympics they don't need another shot. Besides look at what going to the Olympics in 2006 did for Lysacek. He was only 20 and nearly got on the podium. From that moment on he knew he could compete with anyone in the world. Kids like Farris can only get better from the Olympic experience.

judiz
10-23-2012, 01:23 AM
It's amazing (to me) how everyone is ready to hang Dornbush the title at Nationals based on one good skate at Finlandia, We have no idea if the Richard from Finlandia will show up at Nationals or if it will be the one from last year who finished in 13th place. Too early guys to make podium predictions.

aftershocks
10-23-2012, 01:36 AM
^^ It's just speculation based on personal opinions. :) And I don't think everyone is "hanging" (do you mean handing?) Dornbush the title -- just answering the posed question. It is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Richard could win Nats if he skates great in both sp and fp (with cleanly landed quads) -- no easy feat, but possible. It's not unheard of for someone with talent to place low one year and then totally break out the next. If not for Richard's boot problems at 2012 Nats, he likely would have been more of a factor. Plus, don't forget that Richard won the fp at 2011 Nats.

I'm willing to bet it will end up being one of the veterans and a strong up-and-comer who performs well who end up making the World team (and Richard fits the latter category). But of course you are right that podium predictions are always iffy. And that is the case whether the predictions are made this early in the season or a few hours before the event. ;)

Nomad
10-23-2012, 01:36 AM
This is FSU. It's never to early to make podium predictions. I predict that Weir will finally win that elusive pewter medal that is missing from his collection.

aftershocks
10-23-2012, 01:42 AM
^^ :lol: Well, it would definitely be a step in the right direction for his comeback. Still, Weir could just as easily win silver for the second time, or bronze for the third time (if I have his stats correct ;)). He could also win pewter or come in fifth. I think the odds for a 4th gold for Johnny are less. Predictions are always fun while waiting for the new season, and now for the next GP to begin. :)

judiz
10-23-2012, 01:46 AM
I'm looking forward to a very competitive nationals, as always it's whoever delivers the goods that night who walks away with the title. Dick Button use to say Nationals was the hardest competition because you were competing against your friends and countrymen whereas at the grand prix, you were competing for your country.

As we've seen in the past, a skater could podium at all the grand prix events and then crash at Nationals or you can have a dark horse like Weir win it as he did in 2004 after crashing and burning the year before. Weir didn't even participate in the grand prix that year, he earned his trip to nationals by winning sectionals.

ChibiChibi
10-23-2012, 01:58 AM
I think clean Evan without a quad will win over Ricky with three quads (SP+FS). Ricky is a great skater, but he is no where near the level of Evan in every aspect of skating (well, maybe except his quads when he lands them)...and I saw Evan skates not too long ago...