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View Full Version : Can Ashley Wagner win world championship in 2013?



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Marco
10-15-2012, 03:57 AM
Sure she can, if the frontrunners make costly mistakes (pops, falls). But she will need to skate strongly throughout the season to 'deserve' high PCS at Worlds, and will need a clean and consistent 3/3.

mag
10-15-2012, 04:21 AM
Assuming a 3/3 is necessary to win (and I don't know if it will be) Ashley doesn't actually need a consistent 3/3, she would just need to land one (or 2) at Worlds. Skaters do sometimes have the skate of a lifetime at the most opportune moment. Jeff Buttle had that kind of freeskate at Worlds in 2008, Sarah Hughes in SLC, even Takahashi and Tran at Worlds last year. Clearly, consistency is preferred; but it isn't a requirement.

Marco
10-15-2012, 08:07 AM
Assuming a 3/3 is necessary to win (and I don't know if it will be) Ashley doesn't actually need a consistent 3/3, she would just need to land one (or 2) at Worlds. Skaters do sometimes have the skate of a lifetime at the most opportune moment. Jeff Buttle had that kind of freeskate at Worlds in 2008, Sarah Hughes in SLC, even Takahashi and Tran at Worlds last year. Clearly, consistency is preferred; but it isn't a requirement.

She will need it in both the short and long. (her 2axel3toe isn't any more consistent either - I say drop the axeltoe, just work on the fliptoe for both the short and long so she doesn't need to train 2 tricks)

Vash01
10-18-2012, 02:02 AM
Sure she can, if the frontrunners make costly mistakes (pops, falls). But she will need to skate strongly throughout the season to 'deserve' high PCS at Worlds, and will need a clean and consistent 3/3.

I am wondering how Yu na's return would affect Ashley (and the rest of the skaters). Yu na may be rusty but she has good jump technique and she is the best natural artist. I don't see Ashley beating her. She can beat any of the other skaters if she skates clean, and others make mistakes.

sk8ingcoach
10-31-2012, 08:54 PM
She could easily do it. But not if others skaters skate clean. Ladies such as Suzuki, Kostner, yuna, elizaveta could all beat her but they have to skate clean. Ashley has consistency on her side while others don't. But if the others pull of 2 clean programs I think they could even push her off the podium

judgejudy27
10-31-2012, 09:50 PM
She could easily do it. But not if others skaters skate clean. Ladies such as Suzuki, Kostner, yuna, elizaveta could all beat her but they have to skate clean. Ashley has consistency on her side while others don't. But if the others pull of 2 clean programs I think they could even push her off the podium

Personally I think a clean Ashley this year could easily beat even a clean Suzuki or Elizaveta, and possibly a clean Kostner if she is still doing the same jump content. Meanwhile Yu Na would not have to skate clean to beat a clean Ashley, she could afford atleast several mistakes and still do. It is kind of funny how you say it, all those skaters needing to skate totally clean to beat Ashley but certain to do so if they do, as if they are all equal. I hope you dont think the scoring potential of Suzuki is the same as Yu Na Kim for instance, LOL!

FunnyBut
10-31-2012, 10:05 PM
I'd say she has some chance to win, but so do many other ladies. Ashley could win, but so could any of Adelina, Akiko, Kaetlyn, Carolina, Alena etc. The door is that wide open. Ashley has shown herself to be remarkably consistent and prepared this season, so that works in her favor, and she should garner some higher PCS this season as a 'proven skater'. The flutz and lack of a consistent 3-3 work against her.

olympic
10-31-2012, 10:39 PM
Personally I think a clean Ashley this year could easily beat even a clean Suzuki or Elizaveta, and possibly a clean Kostner if she is still doing the same jump content. Meanwhile Yu Na would not have to skate clean to beat a clean Ashley, she could afford atleast several mistakes and still do. It is kind of funny how you say it, all those skaters needing to skate totally clean to beat Ashley but certain to do so if they do, as if they are all equal. I hope you dont think the scoring potential of Suzuki is the same as Yu Na Kim for instance, LOL!

Ashley skates very aggressively and continues to impress me with her continued improvement in both jumps and spins. Also, she is less 'wind-up toy' and offering more passion in her performances which is great for PCS.

So, I do think a clean Ashley could beat some of the premiere skaters w/ her current jump content, such as Asada, Suzuki, Leonova, Tuktamysheva and perhaps Sotnikova. Tuk and Sotnikova are hard to read right now as they are still growing and quite new to Senior ladies. I will also say that Asada looks good thus far, but Ashley still beat her when Asada had a home-court advantage

But in order to compete and beat Kim and Kostner, she will undoubtedly have to step it up even more by perhaps adding a 3-3 in the SP and somehow maximizing even more elements in the LP. I really don't know where Kim is competitively, though. If she is rusty from all the time off, then Ashley probably could catch her, too. If she is ready, then Ashley should be ranked behind her

jlai
10-31-2012, 10:40 PM
Before Ashley can win any more major titles she has to survive the US lady champ jinx in recent history and stay injury free.

sk8ingcoach
11-01-2012, 02:21 PM
Personally I think a clean Ashley this year could easily beat even a clean Suzuki or Elizaveta, and possibly a clean Kostner if she is still doing the same jump content. Meanwhile Yu Na would not have to skate clean to beat a clean Ashley, she could afford atleast several mistakes and still do. It is kind of funny how you say it, all those skaters needing to skate totally clean to beat Ashley but certain to do so if they do, as if they are all equal. I hope you dont think the scoring potential of Suzuki is the same as Yu Na Kim for instance, LOL!



Oh of course I don't think it is the same scoring potential. Yuna can make mistakes and still beat her yes. Obviously Ashley's technical is slightly higher over suzuki and kostner. But I believe if they skated clean, the higher components of Suzuki and kostner would push them to beat Wagner

judgejudy27
11-01-2012, 06:57 PM
Oh of course I don't think it is the same scoring potential. Yuna can make mistakes and still beat her yes. Obviously Ashley's technical is slightly higher over suzuki and kostner. But I believe if they skated clean, the higher components of Suzuki and kostner would push them to beat Wagner

I dont agree at all regarding Suzuki. She just skated a clean long at Skate Canada and had the exact same PCS (basically) as Osmond, a juniorish skater who fell and stumbled. Wagner with increased support from the USFSA and momentum will probably start getting higher PCS than Suzuki who will quickly become an afterthought of the Japanese Skating federation if Asada skates at all well (or Ando comes back at some point).

Kostner is alot tougher call. My personal opinion is I dont think will get away with her current jump content any longer. With all the youngsters coming up doing harder jumps, especialy the Russians 3/3s (granted I know Wagner doesnt have a solid 3/3 but still tries more jumps than Kostner) the judges will be much more harsh on her if she doesnt atleast add the triple lutz back I believe.

sk8ingcoach
11-01-2012, 07:54 PM
I dont agree at all regarding Suzuki. She just skated a clean long at Skate Canada and had the exact same PCS (basically) as Osmond, a juniorish skater who fell and stumbled. Wagner with increased support from the USFSA and momentum will probably start getting higher PCS than Suzuki who will quickly become an afterthought of the Japanese Skating federation if Asada skates at all well (or Ando comes back at some point).

Kostner is alot tougher call. My personal opinion is I dont think will get away with her current jump content any longer. With all the youngsters coming up doing harder jumps, especialy the Russians 3/3s (granted I know Wagner doesnt have a solid 3/3 but still tries more jumps than Kostner) the judges will be much more harsh on her if she doesnt atleast add the triple lutz back I believe.




You are wrong. Yes Ashley was good at Skate America but her components were inflated because the comp is in America, the same happened last year with Alissa receiving huge components over kostner.

Osmond also got inflated components at skate Canada. Akiko Suzuki did not skate clean at skate Canada, she firstly had to pull up from 5th in the short which would have effected her components for long. She did a single loop in free and all her other jumps were not at her usual standard. I believe that if Suzuki and Wagner were to both have perfect short and long programs, that Suzuki would win because of her superior skating skills and other components.

It is the same with Kostner, if she were to skate 2 clean programs ( even without a lutz) she would beat Wagner because of positive GOE and superior components.

pinky166
11-01-2012, 11:19 PM
Suzuki has never gotten huge component scores to begin with and I think she suffers a little bit from 3rd skater syndrome, despite placing better than Mao and Kanako in recent events. Mao has her history, Olympic silver, and being recognized as Yuna's main challenger in her prime going for her, as well as sometimes the 3a, and Kanako is young and has done well for herself in seniors overall despite recently having issues with URs. Akiko on the other hand is 28, and while she's done very well recently, I think the Japanese Fed and maybe the judges are a little hesitant to invest in her too heavily and dish out huge component scores just because they sense she won't be around for much longer. This is disregarding Miki, who was arguably the top Japanese lady before she took last season off and is just another person to add to the mix and diminish Akiko's strengths as a skater. Also, Akiko is prone to making mistakes in the SP and always having a few miscues in the FS such as popping a jump or two, and I think this hurts her scores. You never really expect her to go completely clean, and usually she doesn't, so her strong but not huge scores make sense. If she were to skate totally clean she might score quite a bit higher, I think.

Ashley OTOH is the top US lady at the moment and has been consistently rotating all her jumps in the FS for a while now, which has helped build up her PCS. Unlike Akiko you don't assume she will pop a jump or two in her FS and when she goes out and lands all her jumps and skates with attack, its pretty impressive, even if she isn't going for a 3-3 or 2a-3t just because a clean skate leaves a strong impact on the judges and audience. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Ashley beat Akiko at Worlds honestly, because Ashley has beaten Mao a couple times now, and it hasn't been the situation where Mao has bombed. The judges would likely place Mao ahead of Akiko with comparable skates too, Mao just sometimes comes undone in the FS and gives up too many points in tech that it would be wrong to place her ahead of Akiko with just a couple errors. But the fact that Mao skated well at 4CC and Japan Open and Ashley beat her most times makes me think Ashley can beat Akiko, because I think internationally and in Japan, Mao is still considered to be above Akiko, she just has to skate well to confirm it.

judgejudy27
11-01-2012, 11:45 PM
You are wrong. Yes Ashley was good at Skate America but her components were inflated because the comp is in America, the same happened last year with Alissa receiving huge components over kostner.

Osmond also got inflated components at skate Canada. Akiko Suzuki did not skate clean at skate Canada, she firstly had to pull up from 5th in the short which would have effected her components for long. She did a single loop in free and all her other jumps were not at her usual standard. I believe that if Suzuki and Wagner were to both have perfect short and long programs, that Suzuki would win because of her superior skating skills and other components.

It is the same with Kostner, if she were to skate 2 clean programs ( even without a lutz) she would beat Wagner because of positive GOE and superior components.

LOL we will see later in the year who is wrong but I confidently predict a clean Wagner will never lose again to Suzuki, regardless how Suzuki skates (if she makes mistakes she might lose again to Suzuki). Suzki's career has already peaked with her World bronze last year.

All you point out is that Wagner and Osmond are backed by strong federations while Suzuki really is not, since even after last year she isnt the Japanese fed. favorite and never will be.

sk8ingcoach
11-02-2012, 08:38 AM
LOL we will see later in the year who is wrong but I confidently predict a clean Wagner will never lose again to Suzuki, regardless how Suzuki skates (if she makes mistakes she might lose again to Suzuki). Suzki's career has already peaked with her World bronze last year.

All you point out is that Wagner and Osmond are backed by strong federations while Suzuki really is not, since even after last year she isnt the Japanese fed. favorite and never will be.


Wagner and Osmond are backed by their federations because all the other US and Canadian Ladies suck. Suzuki isn't backed as strongly because they have so many other string skaters.

For sure at the way things are going that Ashley will beat Suzuki at worlds, but only because Suzuki probably won't put togetHer 2 clean programs where as Ashley probably will.