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pinky166
10-12-2012, 09:41 PM
If Yuna is there, then I don't think Ashley has a chance of winning. But if not, then she has a decent chance of winning. I'm just worried that she'll mess up the SP, as usual.

Yuna couldn't beat a 3-3 and 3flip less Miki Ando at 2011 Worlds, and Miki made a mistake in her FS too, landed only 5 clean triples. And Yuna did not bomb there either, just made a few errors. I don't think Yuna is as invincible as you think. Not after all this time off...

judgejudy27
10-12-2012, 11:48 PM
Yu Na was at about 55% of her potential at the 2011 Worlds, and still very nearly won, granted a really weak Worlds but still. The Yu Na from Vancouver probably wins the 2011 Worlds by about 40 points, and the field hasnt improved that much (if any) since then, so she obviously needs to be nowhere near her Vancouver level. At even 80% of her potential she is virtually unbeatable amongst the current field, maybe less depending how the Russian babies develop, Asada comes back, and Wagner keeps developing.

Maofan7
10-13-2012, 12:29 AM
Ashley Wagner on her Olympic dreams (http://www.fitsugar.com/US-Figure-Skater-Ashley-Wagner-Trying-2014-Olympics-25405259)

Roxanne
10-13-2012, 05:36 PM
Yuna couldn't beat a 3-3 and 3flip less Miki Ando at 2011 Worlds, and Miki made a mistake in her FS too, landed only 5 clean triples. And Yuna did not bomb there either, just made a few errors. I don't think Yuna is as invincible as you think. Not after all this time off...

That's just because Ando gets ridiculously high PCS. Ashely doesn't get that kind of PCS yet. I think Yuna could make quite a few mistakes and still beat Ashley.

pinky166
10-13-2012, 08:12 PM
That's just because Ando gets ridiculously high PCS. Ashely doesn't get that kind of PCS yet. I think Yuna could make quite a few mistakes and still beat Ashley.

Historically Ando didn't get such high PCS though, it was only once she built up her reputation through being consistent, winning a lot of medals, and attempting ambitious content that her PCS got so high, and then once that happened, she lightened up her content but was still consistent and the high PCS stayed which is why she was able to win Worlds (and pretty much everything else that season) in 2011. Miki is for sure a talented jumper but beyond that her skating was never super special IMO, but she did everything else well enough (strong SS, decent speed, could tick off the positions to get level 4s on her spins, pull off level 3 footwork convincingly), was attractive physically, and had her age work toward the advantage of creating a "sophisticated lady" image on the ice rather than some teenybopper, so if Ashley can perform consistently in competitions and go for ambitious content this season, her results and thus PCS will likely rise, and that means in the Olympic season, as long as she can stay consistent, she might not even need really ambitious content to win a medal at the Olympics and/or Worlds. She too is a strong jumper and does everything else sufficiently, 3-3s are definitely possible for her, her body may be muscular but is considered appealing in skating, facially she's beautiful, and she does appear sophisticated with her new programs, especially compared to all the Russian teens on the scene. Basically Ashley needs to prove she's not a head case this season and I think as long as she does that she should be good to make Worlds and, if she can keep it up through next season, the Olympics in 2014, and depending on how consistent/good she skates, medaling in either venue is a definite possibility.

judgejudy27
10-13-2012, 08:42 PM
I think it would be a huge mistake to equate the 2011 Worlds with what would be required of a skater to win at the 2013 Worlds and 2014 Olympics. The young Russian jumping beans are age eligible now, Kim is coming back and hopefully more motivated than she was in 2011 where has since admited she didnt even really want to be there, and Asada seems to be returning to form finally.

Wyliefan
10-13-2012, 08:47 PM
I'd vote yes, but I don't want to jinx her. Move along, skategods, nothing to see here . . .

smarts1
10-14-2012, 12:39 AM
Historically Ando didn't get such high PCS though, it was only once she built up her reputation through being consistent, winning a lot of medals, and attempting ambitious content that her PCS got so high, and then once that happened, she lightened up her content but was still consistent and the high PCS stayed which is why she was able to win Worlds (and pretty much everything else that season) in 2011. Miki is for sure a talented jumper but beyond that her skating was never super special IMO, but she did everything else well enough (strong SS, decent speed, could tick off the positions to get level 4s on her spins, pull off level 3 footwork convincingly), was attractive physically, and had her age work toward the advantage of creating a "sophisticated lady" image on the ice rather than some teenybopper, so if Ashley can perform consistently in competitions and go for ambitious content this season, her results and thus PCS will likely rise, and that means in the Olympic season, as long as she can stay consistent, she might not even need really ambitious content to win a medal at the Olympics and/or Worlds. She too is a strong jumper and does everything else sufficiently, 3-3s are definitely possible for her, her body may be muscular but is considered appealing in skating, facially she's beautiful, and she does appear sophisticated with her new programs, especially compared to all the Russian teens on the scene. Basically Ashley needs to prove she's not a head case this season and I think as long as she does that she should be good to make Worlds and, if she can keep it up through next season, the Olympics in 2014, and depending on how consistent/good she skates, medaling in either venue is a definite possibility.

^ THIS. This is what I meant last season when I said that if a US lady was pacing to get on the team for Sochi (and even be a medals contender), they needed to step up their game last season so that the international panel could give some credence to a US skater.

aftershocks
10-14-2012, 06:38 AM
Ashley at JO:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJMDkYMfy7c&feature=channel&list=UL

I love her confidence and attack! The costume color looks better on her in the video than in the still pics I first saw. Excellent showing for Ashley in her first outing of the season. Hope she builds and builds. :)

briancoogaert
10-14-2012, 08:38 AM
Ashley at JO:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJMDkYMfy7c&feature=channel&list=UL

I love her confidence and attack! The costume color looks better on her in the video than in the still pics I first saw. Excellent showing for Ashley in her first outing of the season. Hope she builds and builds. :)
And that's the kind of music that suits her well. I like this program !
Her attack on the jumps is better at the end of the program. Her 3Flip is weird, lol.

aftershocks
10-14-2012, 08:49 AM
^^ Yes, as someone mentioned in the JO thread in GSD, the significant thing is she landed that odd 3flip, whereas earlier in her career, she likely would have fallen.

Onward and upward, Ashley!

briancoogaert
10-14-2012, 08:52 AM
Right ! But IMO, if she wants her PCS to improve, she will have to do clean performances, I mean, with clean landings. :)

aftershocks
10-14-2012, 09:00 AM
Yes, clean helps, but this is great for start of season for Ashley. Just a slight miscue on 3flip, but fully rotated. I don't check protocols so I don't know all the details of her scoring and generally I don't care so much re judges' opinions. ;) Re PCS, judges hold that down or raise it up truthfully based on things other than skaters' actual performances, IMHO.

She was happy with the marks, in first place among ladies. :)


ETA:

In GSD Ashley blog thread, there is a link (doesn't seem to work) re a new article by Sarah Brannen posted on the Boston2014 website.

Also, Ashley's official site:

http://www.figureskatersonline.com/ashleywagner/

bardtoob
10-14-2012, 02:22 PM
I would describe Ashley at the JO this year as having taken it to the next level. Her program is well constructed, she seems very fit, and her jump technique seems better in the air and during the landings (ie not falling).

blue_idealist
10-15-2012, 02:42 AM
I think she'll win if other frontrunners such as Mao, Akiko, and Carolina make mistakes, but she needs them to make mistakes because her PCs are often a bit lower IIRC (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!).