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bardtoob
10-11-2012, 12:29 PM
I don't know, but she did impress me at last year's nationals.

olympic
10-11-2012, 01:50 PM
It's possible, yes. Is it likely? No. There are so many other factors that we have to watch over the course of the season which may end up being obstacles -

1. Current world champ Kostner is not competing the GP series this year and must return to defend her title. Will she withstand the nerves and shake off any 'rust'? Will she have all her jumps? I think the blow up in talent this year will put more pressure on her.

2. The power duo from the last quadrennial of Mao and YuNa are back: Mao in good form per the LP at the Japan Open (where coincidentally, she was still beaten by Wagner). YuNa was invincible at one time not too long ago, but I think she'll be just one of a few at the top this time around.

3. Russian babies are moving on up - (1) Sotnikova is good, but by no means a world beater that some were touting, yet still a threatening presence. (2) Tuktamysheva seems to have hit a rut with injury according to other reports. Will she overcome all that? (3) Lipnitskaya, though, looks like a real wunderkind. Which begs the question:

4. Will world silver-medalist Leonova even make the team with the aforementioned 3 making waves? She's a scrapper! ETA to add - I saw the post above that Lipnitskaya is not eligible for Worlds this year, so Leonova should have an easier road for now.

5. Korpi and her inflated marks are back with a vengeance. Will she get ridiculously high marks at Worlds for SWP?

6. Other JPN ladies - I think Ando will be a non-factor, but Suzuki might get in the thick of it.

I think the aforementioned ladies will all be medal threats and that's a big surge in competitive ladies, the biggest I've seen in a while! I count approximately 8 ladies that could theoretically be on the podium. But, unlike certain other talented US ladies, Wagner doesn't wilt in competition and thrives on competition. That is very refreshing to see and could be meaningful when she goes head-to-head with all the above.

ETA- U.S Nationals were mentioned above. GETTING to Worlds shouldn't be a problem for Wagner: She controls her own destiny IMO (barring injury).

Gold seems to be the reasonable choice right now to be the other US lady. She is heavily supported by the USFSA and has the biggest potential. Because Zawadzki could probably be in the medal hunt at Worlds ... after the SP. She's that good, but she's almost always a near-disaster in the LP, her performance at the US B comp nothwithstanding. The door has almost closed on Nagasu. She's had opportunities but never made it happen. However, I do see a concentration this year in just the 2 comps I've seen that's been lacking. She might spoil if there are problems with those ranked ahead of her. Finally, the only other US lady that should be considered is Czisny. She will begin her season at NHK, but I think the mountain is too high for her to climb this year for many reasons - she's normally a headcase and has a really wild resume of results from great to horrible, she's getting a late start due to surgery, and she doesn't have the natural jumping ability that the aforementioned have. It will be really tough for her to get on the team this year.

Alex Forrest
10-11-2012, 02:23 PM
5. Korpi and her inflated marks are back with a vengeance. Will she get ridiculously high marks at Worlds for SWP?


Skating While Pretty? :lol: Funny. hehe I hope that's what it means, I got it right away.

leafygreens
10-11-2012, 03:02 PM
If everyone skates cleanly at Nationals will she even make the team with Czisny, Nagasu, and Gold, and only 2 spots.

Predicting Czisny's hip surgery will make her a non-factor & Nagasu distant 3rd with a couple of headcase errors.

Also predicting the two slots will be Wagner + Gold. There is already so much USFS hype over Gold she will be PCS'd if her jumps fail. Wagner has proven herself last year so they'll give her a slot again this year barring a meltdown. I don't forsee a meltdown with her newfound confidence. If she makes it through SP she can fall in the LP and still be top 2.

YES, Ashley can win WC when she is at her best and I hope she wins. If she makes one error she will get docked big time, though.

This is the year to send two non-headcase skaters so we can get 3 slots for Olys.


A title should be earned with the skate and how that skater and their competition do. Reputation counts for something, but pre-determining a win smacks of 2002.

In a perfect world...

lowtherlore
10-11-2012, 03:13 PM
Skating While Pretty? :lol: Funny. hehe I hope that's what it means, I got it right away.

Funny. I find Korpi’s skating better than what the timidly uttered “SWP” would insinuate. Cover her face, still I would find her stroking stronger and faster, her jumps fundamentally sound and well rotated, if not always consistent, than, say, those of Asada.

Vash01
10-11-2012, 04:40 PM
IMO Mirai has more talent than Ashley. If she could get her act together this year, she could make the world team, but I think the USFSA should select 'safe' meaning consistent skaters this year. So the GP series will be very important for all the US ladies.

Maofan7
10-11-2012, 04:55 PM
If the overall level of skating across the board were to remain as it is now, then yes she definitely has a chance. However, if Yu Na and Mao are able to return to the form that they had at the last Olympics, and/or if the Russian newbies/Kostner and others were to up their levels to where Yu Na, Mao, Joannie were at in 2010, then she will have difficulty even making the podium without mistakes from others, unless she also ups her level. As Ashley has been improving at a considerable rate over the last 12 months, I think she could well improve a lot further and be in with a chance of a medal, possibly even the Gold.

I think that by the time of 2013 Worlds, the standard across the board will have risen considerably compared to 2012 Worlds. It usually does with just a year to go until the Olympics.

Vash01
10-11-2012, 04:58 PM
Here is a question for everyone: What does Ashley have to do (where does she have to improve) to make herself a championship contender?

bardtoob
10-11-2012, 05:39 PM
5. Korpi and her inflated marks are back with a vengeance. Will she get ridiculously high marks at Worlds for SWP?

Yes. Don't underestimate the power of pretty.

leafygreens
10-11-2012, 05:53 PM
If the overall level of skating across the board were to remain as it is now, then yes she definitely has a chance. However, if Yu Na and Mao are able to return to the form that they had at the last Olympics, and/or if the Russian newbies/Kostner and others were to up their levels to where Yu Na, Mao, Joannie were at in 2010,

They won't (predicting). Yu Na couldn't even win a WC one year after taking a break. Joannie will not be in the same shape and Kostner is unpredictable with her lack of a certain triple.


I think that by the time of 2013 Worlds, the standard across the board will have risen considerably compared to 2012 Worlds. It usually does with just a year to go until the Olympics.

Which would make it even more impressive if she won this year or even medaled. I think she can do it if she keeps the same fire as in 4CC's.

lmarie086
10-11-2012, 07:41 PM
Here is a question for everyone: What does Ashley have to do (where does she have to improve) to make herself a championship contender?

IMO, it's the following: add a 3-3, continue to develop consistency, continue to develop her SS, flesh out the choreography to S&D, and win or medal at a GP.

Ashley has been one of my favorite US ladies since her first senior season-I've been rooting for her chance at the top for so long!

As for the top of the Worlds podium, I'll won't bet on her, but I definitely wouldn't bet against her. You can tell she wants it, that's for sure, and I think that's going to go a long way in her continued growth over this season.

aliceanne
10-11-2012, 07:52 PM
I agree with those who say it is possible but not likely. Late bloomers are rare in skating but they do happen. Arakawa and Kostner are examples.

As far as the young ones are concerned, so many of them fall victim to puberty and injury nowadays the slate may be wiped clean by Sochi.

briancoogaert
10-11-2012, 07:56 PM
I agree with those who say it is possible but not likely. Late bloomers are rare in skating but they do happen. Arakawa and Kostner are examples.
Serious question I wonder myself : do you really consider Kostner as a late bloomer ? I mean, even if she has achieved her best results at 25, she was 3rd at Junior Worlds and 4th at Euros at 15, 3rd at Worlds 2 years later.

caseyedwards
10-11-2012, 08:02 PM
She gained her greatest consistency by abandoning the lutz and taking It easy really but kostner was not really a late bloomer, almost world champ in 2008, very close.

Wagner can do well sure if she can cleanly land jumps and get higher pcs, her model is leonova

Karpenko
10-11-2012, 08:28 PM
I think she can, and I also predict she will be on the podium this year. She's only getting better and this would be her year to really capitalize on her momentum IMO.