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robinhood
01-31-2013, 01:02 PM
Just rewatched Ross and Max's LPs. Notice that neither did a 3 jump combo. Would they consider doing them after the 1st 3x? 3x-2t-2t after their 1st 3x respectively. They are going to need every point available to them at Worlds.

Max is doing a 3T/half loop/3S sequence that this year is considered as a 3 jump combo

Comparing Max PCS to Fernandez I have to say, that while it's true that Javi needs a lot of crossovers to gain speed too, his skating is very smooth and fluid. His posture is much better than Aaron's and he's a better spinner at this point (though not being a very good one, he gets the levels and has adecuate rotation speed). And as Varbar said he's much better packaged in his programs and has an understanding of the music much greater than Aaron's at this point

jlai
01-31-2013, 03:06 PM
For those who think Farris should go to worlds. I like Farris, but no way was Farris gonna beat Max with that skate at US nationals.

Re skating skills. Farris has a smooth glide but his edges are not deep, now if it is Brown landing 2 3As, then yes he should beat Max and go to worlds. But all the folks who are well rounded skaters just didnt get the jumps done

mgobluegirl
01-31-2013, 03:56 PM
I love Farris' skating, but he looked really slowwwwww in his FS at nationals.

olympic
01-31-2013, 04:02 PM
Max is doing a 3T/half loop/3S sequence that this year is considered as a 3 jump combo

Comparing Max PCS to Fernandez I have to say, that while it's true that Javi needs a lot of crossovers to gain speed too, his skating is very smooth and fluid. His posture is much better than Aaron's and he's a better spinner at this point (though not being a very good one, he gets the levels and has adecuate rotation speed). And as Varbar said he's much better packaged in his programs and has an understanding of the music much greater than Aaron's at this point

Thank you! I didn't know that! So, they are indeed maximizing points.

Vagabond
01-31-2013, 04:07 PM
Assuming the US judges were consistent in inflating Miner's PC and Aaron's PC by a similar number of points, one could easily conclude international judges might well give Max a PC mark of around 71 for his free skate at Nationals and why wouldn't they so long as a slow and messy Verner who popped just about all his jumps at Europeans could score around 71 on the program components?

Your assumption is faulty. The judges were not consistent.


Aaron's components for the short averaged 6.728 (factored comp score 33.64), while for the LP, they averaged 7.948 (factored comp score 79.48). So if he had been scored the same for the LP as he was for the SP, his score would be 12 points lower.

However, those around him had an improvement from the SP to the LP in their PCS as well. The judges were PCS-happy that night. Miner's went up by about 6 points, Abbott by about 6, Farris by about 7. So, stripping away the across-the-board inflation, Aaron gained about 6 points. The numbers show that you are correct; he would not have won without that extra boost.

Now, it's certainly possible that if Aaron whips out two quadruple salchows in the Free Skate, the ISU judges will turn into a bunch of fangirls and start throwing panties high PCS marks at him, but I wouldn't count on it.

barbk
01-31-2013, 04:11 PM
Now, it's certainly possible that if Aaron whips out two quadruple salchows in the Free Skate, the ISU judges will turn into a bunch of fangirls and start throwing panties high PCS marks at him, but I wouldn't count on it.

More likely that if he skates a blinder in the SP that his PCS scores will magically jump in the LP if he does even decently in the LP.

nylynnr
01-31-2013, 04:28 PM
I believe Abbott's planned jumps were not updated with the new jump layout for Nationals:

Planned Jumps (GP season) --> Executed Jumps (Nationals)
Triple Lutz --> Quad Toeloop (under-rotated)
Quad Toeloop --> Triple Lutz
Triple Flip --> Triple Axel + Double Toeloop
Triple Axel --> Triple Axel
Triple Axel+Double Toeloop --> Triple Flip
Triple Lutz+Triple Toeloop+Double Loop --> Triple Lutz + Triple Toeloop
Triple Loop --> Double Loop + Double Toeloop
Triple Salchow --> Double Salchow

ETA: Here are the jumps he did in his last practice run through the day before the FS:
4T fall, 3Lz, 3A2T, stopped for a bit, 3A, 3F, 3Lz2T2T, 2Lo, 3S2T

He mentioned the doubled Salchow in his press conference but not the doubled loop that proved costly as well.

That jump content leaves a myriad of ways for Jeremy to have won his fourth title, or the silver medal. Landing a clean quad in the free, as he did last season, would have set the matter to rest. With the number of quads being done at Europeans, not to mention what Patrick Chan and the Japanese skaters are capable of producing, a U.S. skater is not going to be sent to worlds on the basis of skating skills and the hope that a clean quad (as well as more jump content in the second half of a FS) will appear at the final event of the season. Great as Abbott absolutely is, it's just common sense.

Vagabond
01-31-2013, 04:34 PM
More likely that if he skates a blinder in the SP that his PCS scores will magically jump in the LP if he does even decently in the LP.

Well, we're talking about two ISU competitions here, Four Continents and Worlds. He isn't going to be such an unknown quantity at Worlds as he will be at Four Continents. I think that even if he skates comparably at both events, he may be treated differently at Worlds from Four Continents.

I will say that I don't think there's any particular reason that the judges should necessarily single him out for favoritism. Theare are other skaters who can do two or even three quadruple jumps in their Free Skate but who have much better skating skills than he does.

And, by the way, I did enjoy his Free Skate at Nationals, even if his edging and stroking left something to be desired.

pinky166
01-31-2013, 05:00 PM
Except Farris was getting those PCS in junior competitions which generally give out lower PCS. I will bet if you put him up against the other guys at the same senior international competition, his PCS will come out ahead for simiar performances.

And your second point is exactly why I think USFS was stupid to hold him back in international juniors this season. They thought it's already too crowded on top and Farris and Brown are better served staying in juniors. However, besides Miner, none of the big boys have consistently delivered solid performances this season. Their bet on Dornbush (and Mroz a few years back) just didn't materialize like they thought it would and now it's too late to consider Farris because he didn't even do senior GPs. At least Aaron did some senior internationals.

Still, I think Farris and Miner would serve US men's team well with keeping the 2 spots and a great developmental plan for next season and especially for post-Sochi.

This is true, but again, with Farris attempting only one quad between his two programs, if he wants to have a shot at beating out guys like Max, he needs to make his programs very strategic and COP savvy, and at Nationals, the FS layout wasn't that much. He has 5 jumps in the 2nd half which is good, but again, there are just little changes that I think he could handle that would boost the BV and might have made the difference in 2nd vs 4th at Nationals. For example, his layout at nationals was:

3a-3t
4t
3lz-2t
x 3a
x 3f (e)
x 3lo
x 3f-2t-2lo (e)
x 3s

and improvement that should still be well within his capability would be

3a-3t
4t
3lz
x 3a
x 3lz -2t
x 3lo
x 3f-1/2lo-3s
x 2a

Or something like

3a-3t
4t
3lz
x 3a
x 3lz-1/2lo-3lo
x 2a
x 3f-2t-2lo
x 3s

His 3a is a good jump for him, but I understand why he might not want to put both of them in the 2nd half of his program, with the second layout though, he could tinker with trying both 3a in the second half if it's something he thought he could do. And I'm not that worried about Josh anyways because his quad actually does look pretty good, and I think it's just a matter of time before it becomes a consistent jump for him, he's at least getting around on the jump which is promising. But anyways, figure skating under COP is all a numbers game and skating smart. That's why Morozov's students do so well. Josh has a good shot at making the Sochi team regardless of his staying a junior this season (which I actually think helped improve his confidence and consistency so it may be a blessing honestly), but unless the 4t becomes a money jump for him and fast, he's got to be more strategic in his program choices. Losing one spin level in the FS is fine, but getting level 2 on a step sequence and putting 2 flips in a program when there's a good chance you get edge calls on them, and putting 2 combos early in the program when one of them is a 3lz-2t he can easily do late in the program is just not how you milk COP. And we all know Josh is capable of doing a nice 4t, but for ANY guy that can not rely on the quad to pad their scores, the thinking needs to be, how can I construct my program to close the gaps on guys who can and will likely land multiple quads if I end up falling on my quad? And that's where COP-saavy layouts come into play.

Anyways, I also agree with those who say Farris' speed could be improved. With more speed, his 4t consistent, and a more strategic layout, I think he could definitely be US champion, maybe even by next season. A more well-known choreographer could also help, Josh has nice clean long lines, good flexibility, and has become pretty handsome, and I think a top choreographer could show this off more in his programs. His Rach is lovely but doesn't do much to make him stand out, which for someone as talented as him could really make a big difference in terms of being competitive in seniors. He's so young that I'm not worried at all, but all the more reason he doesn't need to be going to Worlds this season. I don't think Max will disappoint, and I'm hoping the good Nationals result will give Josh more confidence and momentum going into JW and next season which will hopefully translate to good results. He's come a long way and is an exceptionally good skater for his age, but he is only barely 18. None of the 3 guys who placed ahead of him at Nationals were not really close to as good as him when they were the same age, and I can't help but wonder if Dornbush had wound up 4th instead of 2nd at Nats in 2011, and gone to JW instead of Worlds where he wound up placing the highest of all the men which built up expectations, if he might not be a more steady competitor now...

luenatic
01-31-2013, 05:38 PM
and improvement that should still be well within his capability would be

Or something like

3a-3t
4t
3lz
x 3a
x 3lz-1/2lo-3lo
x 2a
x 3f-2t-2lo
x 3s

...

Impossible.

First, 3lz-1/2lo-3lo is physically impossible. Unless a skater can land the 1/2 lo on BO edge and rotate and jump the 3lo in the different direction and different foot. Ain't gonna happen. May be you're thinking of the plain 3z/3lo?
Second, FP can only have one 3-jump combo. 3lz-1/2lo-3lo (even if a super human can do such freaky thing) and 3f-2t-2lo in the FP will disqualify the second 3-jump combo.

carriemarie
01-31-2013, 06:20 PM
Seeing the event live my first impressions were Aaron first, Farris second. Max Aaron stands around a lot but he flies around the rink and although his PCS are lacking his program was electric that night. Miner was quite good and Jeremy was just frustrating to watch at the end. I have no problem with Aaron going to Worlds this year. The USFS needs to look past Sochi to 2018 for our men and set us up properly. There is very little chance a US man will be a factor in Sochi, so let's just move on and get our young guys out there. I don't think it is unrealistic for Aaron to make Fernandez-like improvements over the next couple of years. I don't find his basics bad and his speed is great. Before Nationals he was a middling Senior Man and not much of a factor, so his programs were set up with technical fire power to break into the last group, IMO. The strategy was to get him noticed on domestic soil and next year will be about international success. Is he our best hope for the next quad? I don't know, but I see him having great long term potential and its useless to send Jeremy out again and again with no real results. Personally, I like Farris and Johnson, and I wouldn't count Dornbush out just yet. I am not much of a fan of Brown and I think Armin and Messing need to really re-think their strategies. There was a lot of nice performances in men and I am going to wait to see how worlds pans out.

luenatic
01-31-2013, 06:42 PM
I don't know what Dornbush can do to be consistent. He reminds me of Trifun Zivanovic. I think Dornbush's problems with his jump is his posture. He's so far forward before the take off. But hey, Trifun was US Silver medallist!

pinky166
01-31-2013, 07:13 PM
Impossible.

First, 3lz-1/2lo-3lo is physically impossible. Unless a skater can land the 1/2 lo on BO edge and rotate and jump the 3lo in the different direction and different foot. Ain't gonna happen. May be you're thinking of the plain 3z/3lo?
Second, FP can only have one 3-jump combo. 3lz-1/2lo-3lo (even if a super human can do such freaky thing) and 3f-2t-2lo in the FP will disqualify the second 3-jump combo.

No 3lz-1/2lo-3lo is a jump sequence, so he could still do a 3-jump combo. 3f-1/2lo-3s counts as a 3 jump combo because the free leg doesn't touch the ice between the 3 jumps. For the 3lz-1/2lo-3lo, the free leg comes down to take off for the 3lo so it gets counted as a sequence, gets 80% of BV, and does not count as a 3 jump combo. I was more thinking the 3f-1/2lo-3s as a combo anyways, because it would really only alter the last two jumping passes, and the 3 jump combo that's a 3-3 seems to be popular for the men as of late and brings in a lot of points if done well. In this video from summer 2011, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdynmH7vpRc he does a 3f-1/2lo-3lo sequence at 02:18, which is why I suggested the 3lz-1/2lo-3lo sequence as a possibility because he has tried it in the past (and it actually looked decent there even with the stepout, and his jumps have improved a whole lot since then). He doesn't really need to change his layout anyways, it's just more if he's really trying to get higher onto the US Nationals podium next season or win JW this season with Kovtun and Yan having huge quads (and may even try 2 in the FS) and comparable PCS, tweaking a jump layout is a good way to get more points without having to obtain a brand new skill or rely so heavily on the execution of a certain difficult element.

pinky166
01-31-2013, 07:19 PM
I don't know what Dornbush can do to be consistent. He reminds me of Trifun Zivanovic. I think Dornbush's problems with his jump is his posture. He's so far forward before the take off. But hey, Trifun was US Silver medallist!

Dornbush was consistent in 2010-2011, though. I think his sudden thrust into being a contender at a young age and the attention and expectations, pressure that came with it, coupled with his boot problems last season, illness/injuries this season, and focusing a lot on the quad have hurt his consistency the past two seasons. But I tend to think he can probably regain it, as he does not seem to have the nervous disposition of a classic "headcase type" that makes you wonder if they are ever going to be reliable. He's been reliable in the past and he still has all the tricks, and is pretty young so I don't worry about the injuries continually creeping up on him at least not for a few more years. It might just take a little more time for him to regroup and emerge as a strong competitor again, but once he does, he can likely do very well.

PrincessLeppard
01-31-2013, 07:25 PM
Are they still counting sequences as only 80% of BV? :wall: