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Iceman
01-04-2013, 04:51 PM
The US has only one man in the top ten season world rankings, Miner. Dornbush ranks 11th. Believe it or not, even Kevin Reynolds
outranks Abbott. Imo the US's best chance for getting three spots for the OLympics is Evan, assuming he is in top form, and Miner or Dornbush.

Sylvia
01-04-2013, 04:56 PM
ISU Season Rankings are boosted with Senior B competitions (top 5 finishers receive ranking points) added to Senior Grand Prix comps. (top 8 finishers receive points).

ETA::
2 GP & 1 Sr B: Dornbush, Miner, Weir
2 GP: Abbott, Rippon
1 GP & 2 Sr B: Mahbanoozadeh (replaced Lysacek at SA)
1 GP & 1 Sr B: Razzano
2 Sr B: Aaron, Messing
1 Sr B: Carriere, Dolensky

pinky166
01-05-2013, 09:46 PM
I'm not holding my breath for Dornbush. I'm really big fan of his skating, but I'm not convinced he's not a headcase. Jeremy is obviously one too, but at least his PCS will allow him to outscore a Dornbush bomb even if he himself bombs. If Ricky earns the spot, by all means he should be sent, when he's "on", I enjoy his skating more than Miner's and think he could outscore Miner internationally too, it's just a question of will he deliver. Ross does not have the consistency with the quad yet, but apart from Aaron no one else really does either, and he is capable of landing a nice one at least and his 3a is very consistent as are most of the rest of his jumps at this point. Ross is probably the safest bet, the question is, who is the best person to send with him? I would almost say Aaron merely due to his jump consistency and impressive content, but, he really does not have much international experience, and I do worry about him receiving Voronov/Nan Song-like treatment, in other words his PCS will be low, and if he skates a jam packed program nearly perfectly, it won't matter and he'll be able to score pretty well anyways just due to TES but once a mistake or two is made, the scores go crashing into mediocrity and at that point an almost meltdown from Abbott, error-ridden Dornbush, or standard performance Farris might be able to score higher. So in that sense, Jeremy is probably the most logical second candidate, because on the off-chance he does deliver at Worlds, he'll be able to place way higher than any of our other men can really hope for.

I also really like Messing but consistency is not his friend and I think his tendency to tank his FS won't go unnoticed by the USFS, so unless he really rocks Nats, I'm not sure he's even the 2nd longshot, I think realistically Farris and Mahbanoozadeh, maybe Rippon depending on how inflated his PCS are and if he can land that 3a cleanly, could place ahead of him. But the talent is certainly there and if he DOES deliver, I expect big scores.

I also wonder how high a clean FS from Farris could score, just because it seems like he always gives up a bunch of points, but with the extra step sequence and the strength of his jumps and spins, if he hits, lands his jumps, and gets the level 4s on spins and steps he's capable of, idk I think he could rack up a pretty high TES. You are probably right though, he and Brown still being age eligible for juniors is a huge asset to the USFS because not only does it give them very good odds to max out JGP slots the following season and keep 3 men's spots on that team, but it also gives them more flexibility for maxing out post-Nationals international assignments among the top men in this very deep field we have. I don't think there's any way Josh goes to Worlds this season, but I do wonder about 4CC if he were to place say 3rd or 4th (which I'm not expecting, but depending on Dornbush and even Abbott such an outcome might not be completely bonkers) - but more likely they'd pass on him and send the next person in line (assuming its not Brown or Choate - the only other senior men still eligible for JW), judging from how they sent Agnes and Christina to JW instead of 4CC after placing 4th and 5th at senior nats in 2011, then Christina again in 2012 after again being 5th.

In any event, I am curious about 4CC after Japan went with the top 3 for 4CC instead of mixing it up, I wonder if USFS might potentially do the same, esp. because Alissa apparently complained about wanting to go to 4CC but not getting sent last year when she was 2nd at Nats...

Sylvia
01-05-2013, 10:22 PM
Quads landed successfully (called rotated and -2 GOE & higher) in international competition this fall and/or at U.S. Sectionals in November:

3: Aaron 4S+2T in SP & 4S in Salt Lake Sr B; 4S+3T in Midwestern Sectionals FS
2: Dornbush 4T+2T in Finlandia SP; 4T in GP Russia SP
2: Messing 4T (-2 GOE) in Nebelhorn FS; 4T (-1 GOE) in Pacific Sectionals SP
1: Miner 4S in NHK Trophy FS
1: Farris 4T in Lake Placid JGP FS
1: Razzano 4T in Skate America FS
1: Mahbanoozadeh 4T (-1 GOE) in Salt Lake Sr B SP
1: Mroz 4T (-2 GOE) in Midwestern Sectionals FS

More stats on attempts, including summer comps, etc. to come later.

Cheylana
01-05-2013, 10:35 PM
All good observations. Now I will make one of my own.

The USFSA will pick whomever earns it, just like they did back in 2011 when they left Jeremy Abbott off the team (not to mention Adam Rippon) and instead sent two unproven youngsters and a showman with quads galore! :cool:

Despite the fact that Jeremy Abbott is my favorite, I would not say he is a lock for the team, no way. He is not a Michelle Kwan, or even an Evan Lysacek. He still has no World or Olympic medals to his name, nor do any of the others competing at Nationals this year.

Therefore, it honestly is anybody's game, they ALL have a shot at it, young, old, junior, senior, it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that they bring their *A* game. :hat1:
I agree. I don't see the judges giving Abbott any particular benefit of the doubt, because the only thing he has done consistently is lay eggs at the big events. :shuffle:

PeterG
01-05-2013, 11:08 PM
I agree. I don't see the judges giving Abbott any particular benefit of the doubt, because the only thing he has done consistently is lay eggs at the big events. :shuffle:

1st - 2009 Grand Prix Final
5th - 2010 Worlds
3rd - 2007 FCC
3rd - 2011 FCC

I could only dream of laying those kinds of eggs... :sigh:

centerpt1
01-05-2013, 11:20 PM
Plus, last two Worlds he went to, he was the highest scoring US males single skater. Abbott not at his best is still better than the (US) rest.

That may be changing though. I think it depends on how his back is doing now. He doesn't skate well when he's injured.

Cheylana
01-06-2013, 12:11 AM
1st - 2009 Grand Prix Final
5th - 2010 Worlds
3rd - 2007 FCC
3rd - 2011 FCC

I could only dream of laying those kinds of eggs... :sigh:
I'll give you the GPF, but I don't consider FCC a big event. I'm talking about pressure-cooker events when something is really at stake.

The 5th place was an anemic effort at a depleted post-Olympic Worlds; add back in Lysacek, Plushenko, Lambiel, Weir, etc. and he would have been 8-9th at best (in other words, his usual).

I'm a fan of his skating, but I'm not blind to the fact that he has virtually no head for competition, and his competitive record to date falls far short of his talent, which is too bad.

pinky166
01-06-2013, 12:56 AM
I'll give you the GPF, but I don't consider FCC a big event. I'm talking about pressure-cooker events when something is really at stake.

The 5th place was an anemic effort at a depleted post-Olympic Worlds; add back in Lysacek, Plushenko, Lambiel, Weir, etc. and he would have been 8-9th at best (in other words, his usual).

I'm a fan of his skating, but I'm not blind to the fact that he has virtually no head for competition, and his competitive record to date falls far short of his talent, which is too bad.

I basically agree. Jeremy's results are more indicative of how good of a skater he is...if he put it together, he easily could be a World and Olympic Medalist (maybe not now as the quad is so crucial, but definitely before), but the closest he's come is 5th in a weak field missing a bunch of top guns. As for 4CC, I do think it is a pretty big event, but it's not like he's ever won, two bronzes sort of shows the same things as his Worlds showings. GPF is also an interesting event because the field is so small and qualifying events can be unevenly stacked, so while it's a big deal he won, to do so he only needed to beat 5 other skaters, and while these are theoretically the 5 best skaters in the World at the time, qualification oddities and uneven events, withdrawals, etc. can make it so that sometimes, a few of the skaters at the GPF aren't really the top 6 best in the World but got lucky with events/qualification stats/conveniently had a SOTL at a GP event, etc. Like Machida this year, he's really a 2nd or 3rd tier skater, but he made the GPF. In any events, Worlds is a big event with a lot of good entrants so a good placement there is harder to achieve and more indicative of one's competitiveness compared to the GPF. Jeremy is just SO good that his results are frustrating...his scores and placements are generally pretty decent, but for the most part, he's gotten these scores and placements skating about 50% of his capabilities, so that's more the issue. A Jeremy bomb sure might score about as well as a decent effort from most of the other guys, but if we're expecting Jeremy to basically bomb, in that sense, it makes sense to give the others a shot as the outcomes are likely to be similar...but it's just that these other guys aren't capable of the kind of scores and placement Jeremy could get if he were to simply deliver at Worlds. So that's why it's tricky.

aftershocks
01-06-2013, 09:55 AM
1st - 2009 Grand Prix Final
5th - 2010 Worlds
3rd - 2007 FCC
3rd - 2011 FCC

I could only dream of laying those kinds of eggs... :sigh:


I'll give you the GPF, but I don't consider FCC a big event. I'm talking about pressure-cooker events when something is really at stake.

The 5th place was an anemic effort at a depleted post-Olympic Worlds; add back in Lysacek, Plushenko, Lambiel, Weir, etc. and he would have been 8-9th at best (in other words, his usual).

I'm a fan of his skating, but I'm not blind to the fact that he has virtually no head for competition, and his competitive record to date falls far short of his talent, which is too bad.


I'm with PeterG! If Jeremy Abbott is a "consistently egg-laying at big events" kinda skater, then I think dose is some mighty fine egg-laying results. Ha! Perhaps he'll lay some golden eggs in the near future.

The way Jeremy oozes across the ice, deftly painting masterpieces as a three-time U.S. National Champion, he sure knows how to crack those eggs, so I'm not gonna get too hung up on whether or not he has a "head for competition." He does have a mighty fine head on his shoulders, and a rockin' bod too. If figure skating was so d**n easy, we'd all be out there "laying eggs." As it is, most figure skaters never have the opportunity to find out if they even have eggs in them worthy of hatching. :lol:

Go Jeremy! Go Ross! Go all you U.S. guys and ladies! May pigs fly and chickens scatter! :rollin:

olympic
01-06-2013, 03:32 PM
Quads landed successfully (called rotated and -2 GOE & higher) in international competition this fall and/or at U.S. Sectionals in November:

3: Aaron 4S+2T in SP & 4S in Salt Lake Sr B; 4S+3T in Midwestern Sectionals FS
2: Dornbush 4T+2T in Finlandia SP; 4T in GP Russia SP
2: Messing 4T (-2 GOE) in Nebelhorn FS; 4T (-1 GOE) in Pacific Sectionals SP
1: Miner 4S in NHK Trophy FS
1: Farris 4T in Lake Placid JGP FS
1: Razzano 4T in Skate America FS
1: Mahbanoozadeh 4T (-1 GOE) in Salt Lake Sr B SP
1: Mroz 4T (-2 GOE) in Midwestern Sectionals FS

More stats on attempts, including summer comps, etc. to come later.

I think it's just as important to note their trends in completing Quads-

It appears based on the chronology of the season that Aaron, Messing, Miner and Mroz have done better w/ the quad as the season progressed.
It appears that Dornbush, Farris, Razzano and Mahbanoozadeh have fared worse as the season progressed (although Farris has a legitimate excuse: The allergic reaction at JGPF). Dornbush is perhaps not doing worse, just really uneven.

Sylvia
01-06-2013, 03:34 PM
I think nagging injuries are a legitimate excuse as well and not all skaters talk about them publicly (Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh may have, IIRC). Neither Razzano nor Mahbanoozadeh attempted any quads at their last competition, Ice Challenge, in November. ETA that Armin opened his FS with a 2T so a quad likely was planned.

ETA:

Quad stats for Max Aaron:
Broadmoor SP Only (June): 4S fall (in Jumps comp. he landed a 4S+2T+2Lo & a 4T)
Liberty (July): 4S fall in SP; landed 4S (-1 GOE) in FS
Glacier Falls (Aug.): 2S+1T in SP; 4S< fall in FS
Salt Lake Senior B (Sept.): 4S+2T in SP, 4S in FS
Cup of Nice (Oct.): 4S fall in SP; 2S in FS
Midwestern Sectionals (Nov.): 4S fall in SP; 4S+3T in FS (+1.75 GOE, 16.35 points!)

Ross Miner:
Liberty (July): 4T< fall in SP; 4S fall in FS
Cranberry Open SP only (Aug.): 4S fall
(In a Champs Camp article in late Aug., he mentioned landing a 4S in at least one of his programs before officials there.)
Salt Lake Sr B (Sept.): 4S< fall in SP; 2S in FS
Skate Canada (late Oct.): 4S fell out/hand down (-3 GOE, 7.50 points); 2S in FS, followed by 7 of 8 planned triples landed
NHK Trophy (Nov.): 2S in SP; 4S landed in FS, 7 triples landed total

Richard Dornbush:
LA Open (July): It was posted that he missed both 4T attempts in his FS, don't know if he tried it in SP (no detailed protocols available to check)
Glacier Falls (Aug.): 4T (+1.50 GOE, 11.80 points) in SP; 4T (-1.25/9.05 points), 4T+SEQ fall in FS
Golden West (Sept.): 4T fall in SP; fell on both his 4T attempts in FS
Finlandia (Oct.): 3T in SP; landed 4T+2T, fell on 2nd 4T, then landed 7 of 7 planned triples in FS
Rostelecom Cup (Nov.): 4T (+1.29 GOE, 11.59 points) in SP; fell on 4T in FS, followed by 7 of 8 triples landed
NHK (Nov.): 4T fall in SP; 2T, 4T fall in FS, then landed all 7 planned triples afterwards

Keegan Messing:
Liberty (July): no quad attempt in SP (he won) or FS
Glacier Falls (Aug.): 4T<<+2T (-1.40 GOE, 4.00 points); 4T< fall in FS
Nebelhorn (Sept.): did not attempt quad in SP; landed a flawed 4T (-2.14 GOE, 8.16 points out of BV of 10.30) in FS
Cup of Nice (Oct.): clean SP with no quad attempt (80 points); 4T< fall in FS
Pacific Sectionals (Nov.): 4T (-1 GOE) in SP (80 points); landed a flawed 4T (-2.75 GOE, 7.55 points) in FS

Armin Mahbanoozadeh:
Vail (July): landed 4T in both SP & FS, according to reports
Salt Lake Sr B (Sept): landed 4T (-1 GOE, 9.30 points) in SP; 4T fall in FS
Skate America (Oct.): 4T fall in SP; 4T< fall in FS
Ice Challenge (Nov.): did not attempt 4T in SP; opened FS with 2T

Douglas Razzano:
Golden West (Sept.): 2T in SP; opened FS with 3T
Skate America (Oct.): 4T< fall in SP; landed 4T in FS
Ice Challenge (Nov.): clean SP with no quad attempt; opened FS with 3T

Joshua Farris:
JGP Lake Placid (late Aug./early Sept.): landed 4T (+1 GOE) in FS
JGP Slovenia (late Sept.): after opening 3A fall in FS, landed 3T
JGP Final (early Dec.): 4T fall in FS

Brandon Mroz:
Broadmoor SP Only (June): 4Lo fall
Liberty (July): 4Lo< fall (5.4 points out of BV of 8.4) in SP; landed a flawed 4Lo (-2 GOE, 10 points out of BV of 12) in FS
Glacier Falls (Aug.): 1Lo in SP; 4Lo<< fall in FS
Midwestern Sectionals (Nov.): 4T< fall in SP; landed a flawed 4T (-2 GOE, 8.30 points) in FS

Jeremy Abbott:
Skate America (Oct.): 4T< fall in both SP and FS
TEB (Nov.): clean SP with no quad attempt (81 points); 4T<< (-1.9 GOE, 2.2 points) in FS

pinky166
01-06-2013, 08:17 PM
I think it's just as important to note their trends in completing Quads-

It appears based on the chronology of the season that Aaron, Messing, Miner and Mroz have done better w/ the quad as the season progressed.
It appears that Dornbush, Farris, Razzano and Mahbanoozadeh have fared worse as the season progressed (although Farris has a legitimate excuse: The allergic reaction at JGPF). Dornbush is perhaps not doing worse, just really uneven.

Armin definitely was dealing with injuries this fall, he tweeted and I think a couple articles mentioned him having a sprained ankle around Skate America. As for Farris, he did rotate the attempt at the GPF despite the allergic reaction and benadryl, and the 4t he landed in Lake Placid was a beauty (+1s and +2s for GOE), as for Slovenia, he didn't attempt the quad after unexpectedly falling on his opening 3a, usually his money jump which he does in combo with 3t, so I think that was more of a spur of the moment decision where his hip may have been out of alignment from the rough fall and he didn't want to risk falling again on the quad, especially where he had another 3a coming up late in the program that he knew he had to do in combination to get credit for. So there's not much data to judge from there, but rotating both attempts and landing one of them very well speaks to a decent mastery of the jump. I think Armin, too, has a pretty decent/consistent 4t and that the injuries just affected him this fall more than he maybe wants to mention publicly just so as to not sound like a complainer making excuses. Dornbush yeah, he's hot and cold, but considering he plans 2 4t in his FS, you would think that the jump is quite consistent for him at least in training.

Ross I expect will take the 4s out of his SP at Nats unless he's really got it down pat now. I doubt Jeremy will go for the quad in his SP at Nats, and if he does, I don't expect him to land it (or if he lands it, knowing him he might botch the 3a or combo instead anyways), meaning that Dornbush may be the only man of real concern going for a quad in the SP, and he has yet to skate a clean SP this season so Ross going for a clean SP is likely a safer bet than going for the 4s and risk popping it or falling (esp if a < or << accompanies the fall). Max will go for the quad in the SP but last season even with that 4s he only scored a 76 and Ross without a quad, and the miscue on the combo, still placed ahead. Keegan may go for 4t in the SP as well, but I think the highest he's scored for his SP this season is 80 which Ross at Nats can probably top with just a clean, quadless SP this season. And who knows, if Abbott and Miner opt out of trying the quad in the SP and others like Dornbush, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh, Mroz, Razzano (the only other men in the field that I would think might try a quad in the SP, apart from Aaron whose 4s is so consistent I think he will go for it regardless) get word of it, I wonder if they might follow suit and forego the quad in the SP to increase the odds of skating clean.

centerpt1
01-06-2013, 08:38 PM
It may come down to who is least injured , or at least who does best with what injuries they have.

skatesindreams
01-06-2013, 08:44 PM
It may come down to who is least injured , or at least who does best with what injuries they have.

So true!