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aftershocks
12-07-2012, 01:59 AM
^ It seems to me that Ross gets pretty good to average height on his jumps. Maybe Ricky gets a bit more height on his. It's hard to tell exactly. But I'm not sure that explosive power necessarily equates to having great altitude. It must be a combination of factors involving body type, bone structure and muscle strength perhaps (and maybe something else) that determines how high skaters can jump. And if they don't jump very high, then they probably have to rotate quickly (particularly for 3-axel and quad) in order to land jumps successfully. Proper rhythm and technique are probably also essential, along with confidence and belief you are going to land the jumps.

It's great to see Jason Brown cleanly landing his 3-axel at JGPF. Jason is a wonderfully talented skater with great rhythm, style and musicality, but he doesn't seem to get great height on his jumps, which is probably one reason why it has taken him awhile to perfect his 3-axel technique. His success with 3-axel seems to depend upon jumping high enough to make that extra half revolution and land cleanly with no double-footing. Joshua probably gets better height on his jumps than Jason.

BTW, I think Ross and Richard (and of course, Jeremy) have great programs this season and should all do well if they perform to their capabilities. Of the U.S. men, I also enjoy Armin's and Keegan's programs this season. Adam seemed more comfortable in his new programs at NHK Trophy. I'm also eager to see at Nationals, Stephen Carriere, Jonathan Cassar, Doug Razzano, Alexander Johnson, Sean Rabbit, Scott Dyer and Grant Hochstein. Max A. will obviously be high in the standings with his great jumping ability, and hopefully Brandon M. will have a good showing as well and rediscover his confidence.

olympic
12-07-2012, 06:08 PM
^ It seems to me that Ross gets pretty good to average height on his jumps. Maybe Ricky gets a bit more height on his. It's hard to tell exactly. But I'm not sure that explosive power necessarily equates to having great altitude. It must be a combination of factors involving body type, bone structure and muscle strength perhaps (and maybe something else) that determines how high skaters can jump. And if they don't jump very high, then they probably have to rotate quickly (particularly for 3-axel and quad) in order to land jumps successfully. Proper rhythm and technique are probably also essential, along with confidence and belief you are going to land the jumps.

It's great to see Jason Brown cleanly landing his 3-axel at JGPF. Jason is a wonderfully talented skater with great rhythm, style and musicality, but he doesn't seem to get great height on his jumps, which is probably one reason why it has taken him awhile to perfect his 3-axel technique. His success with 3-axel seems to depend upon jumping high enough to make that extra half revolution and land cleanly with no double-footing. Joshua probably gets better height on his jumps than Jason.

BTW, I think Ross and Richard (and of course, Jeremy) have great programs this season and should all do well if they perform to their capabilities. Of the U.S. men, I also enjoy Armin's and Keegan's programs this season. Adam seemed more comfortable in his new programs at NHK Trophy. I'm also eager to see at Nationals, Stephen Carriere, Jonathan Cassar, Doug Razzano, Alexander Johnson, Sean Rabbit, Scott Dyer and Grant Hochstein. Max A. will obviously be high in the standings with his great jumping ability, and hopefully Brandon M. will have a good showing as well and rediscover his confidence.

I think outside of the Abbott, Miner, Dornbush triumvirate, the ones to really watch for w/ a shot at the podium and perhaps the team (should any 2 of the triumvirate bomb) would be Max A., and Keegan. Even a good showing by Joshua at Nats, though, would still send him to just Junior Worlds unless he was just completely out of this world performance-wise. Something tells me that Adam is slowly getting better but I don't know if it's enough and the complete lack of even an attempt at a quad could do him in.

Max is the best of the bunch quad-wise, followed by Ross and Ricky. I think Ricky has tried and landed more, but also splatted a lot more. Maybe Jeremy will have one by Nationals.

I also think Brandon is circling the bowl quite frankly. He seems to want to do nothing else other than use the rink as an X-Sport venue to try (and miss) really hard quads

pinky166
12-07-2012, 08:22 PM
I know Josh hasn't tried the quad that many times, and is likely to just go to JW unless he's like top 2, but quad-wise, he at least seems to be good at rotating the jump. He landed a clean one in Lake Placid, then got full rotation on the one he fell on at the JGPF, and last year at Nationals he tried the quad and fell, getting a <, but it was a close call and pretty close to rotated. So really I think his quad success ability rate is up there with Ross, Armin, and well these days, even Jeremy, and ahead of Adam when Adam was trying the 4s because it was << every time. I guess though, if Josh were to place say 3rd or 4th at Nats, and two of the junior men (say Chen and Omori or Moeller) were to skate really well), he could be given 4CC and then passed on for JW in favor of sending the younger guys (presuming Brown is the 3rd entrant), but idk if USFS would do that.

Max has the edge on quad success over everyone, that's for sure, and behind him I'd put Dornbush and Messing, then the guys I listed (Miner, Mahbanoozadeh, Farris, Abbott), and then idk if there's anyone else who will try it, Razzano maybe and Weir or Lysacek if they show up, but those guys probably have even less success with it than the guys in that bigger middle group.

The one thing that makes it difficult to predict though, is that although Richard and Keegan have some of the more successful 4ts of the bunch, they are also more prone to little mistakes than the other guys. Their scores can be all over the place.

The "safest" team to send to Worlds would likely be Aaron and Miner, if both skate well at Nationals. However, it's tough because while this team could probably comfortably earn 2 spots, they wouldn't have much of a chance to get 3.

To get 3 spots, Jeremy or a on-form Lysacek need to be on the team, IMO, and skate well. But then the issue becomes, if they don't skate well, 3 spots won't likely be earned, and their placements could be lower than if someone like Max was sent, so if Jeremy gets sent but doesn't really earn it at Nats, then doesn't skate well at Worlds, should Max have skated great at Nats and miss out on Worlds b/c USFS thought Jeremy was the best shot at getting 3 spots, then a break-out opportunity for Max was missed out on in an attempt to get 3 Olympic spots which might not be gotten anyways. And if there are only 2 spots, a trip to Worlds with a good showing could have put Max as a frontrunner for one of them, whereas if he's passed over his chances are likely to be slim.

Any way you look at it, it's going to be a tough call. I understand the value in giving young, promising guys a chance if veteran skaters are underperforming, dealing with injuries, and feeling their age, but at the same time, getting 3 spots for the Olympics would increase the chances of an up-and-comer or two to make the team, and to get 3 spots, we probably need someone like Jeremy or Evan on the team, but if someone else skates better, than they really should get sent instead, but politics and reputation play such a big role that it's just a crap shoot.

aftershocks
12-07-2012, 08:26 PM
I think outside of the Abbott, Miner, Dornbush triumvirate, the ones to really watch for w/ a shot at the podium and perhaps the team (should any 2 of the triumvirate bomb) would be Max A., and Keegan. Even a good showing by Joshua at Nats, though, would still send him to just Junior Worlds unless he was just completely out of this world performance-wise. Something tells me that Adam is slowly getting better but I don't know if it's enough and the complete lack of even an attempt at a quad could do him in.

Max is the best of the bunch quad-wise, followed by Ross and Ricky. I think Ricky has tried and landed more, but also splatted a lot more. Maybe Jeremy will have one by Nationals.

I also think Brandon is circling the bowl quite frankly. He seems to want to do nothing else other than use the rink as an X-Sport venue to try (and miss) really hard quads

^ Yes, I tend to agree with you on your major points. Re Brandon: I think he needs guidance from a different coach, perhaps an infusion of new ideas and a fresh approach. So glad for Joshua that he found what he needed for his further development in coaches Christy Krall and Damon Allen, without having to leave the Colorado training environment.

Max has more of a variety of quads, correct? And I wonder has his consistency on them improved, as he didn't have a necessarily great showing at Nationals 2012. Max needs a lot of work on his presentation skills too, so I'd be surprised if he made the team over Ross, Richard or Jeremy (but true again that anything can happen). :)

I think Ricky looked really good at the beginning of the season at his first two comps, but he seemed to tail off a bit in consistency and confidence during the GP. Hopefully, he will be stronger and more confident at Nationals.

Ross seems to have been building confidence on his quad sal, so I hope something has kicked in re his successful landing of that jump and his overall wonderful fp performance and third place at NHK.

I'm so looking forward to Nationals in January. Meanwhile, enjoy the holiday season.

aftershocks
12-07-2012, 09:31 PM
...
The "safest" team to send to Worlds would likely be Aaron and Miner, if both skate well at Nationals. However, it's tough because while this team could probably comfortably earn 2 spots, they wouldn't have much of a chance to get 3.

To get 3 spots, Jeremy or a on-form Lysacek need to be on the team, IMO, and skate well. But then the issue becomes, if they don't skate well, 3 spots won't likely be earned, and their placements could be lower than if someone like Max was sent, so if Jeremy gets sent but doesn't really earn it at Nats, then doesn't skate well at Worlds, should Max have skated great at Nats and miss out on Worlds b/c USFS thought Jeremy was the best shot at getting 3 spots, then a break-out opportunity for Max was missed out on in an attempt to get 3 Olympic spots which might not be gotten anyways. And if there are only 2 spots, a trip to Worlds with a good showing could have put Max as a frontrunner for one of them, whereas if he's passed over his chances are likely to be slim.

Any way you look at it, it's going to be a tough call. I understand the value in giving young, promising guys a chance if veteran skaters are underperforming, dealing with injuries, and feeling their age, but at the same time, getting 3 spots for the Olympics would increase the chances of an up-and-comer or two to make the team, and to get 3 spots, we probably need someone like Jeremy or Evan on the team, but if someone else skates better, than they really should get sent instead, but politics and reputation play such a big role that it's just a crap shoot.


Hi pinky. The highlighted portion of your comments is on target. However, I don't think it's necessarily true that Jeremy not performing well with whoever accompanies him (unlikely to be Lysacek since he has an injury) means they would place lower than Max. I think Max would be a good third place option to send if there were 3 spots. With only 2 spots, and it being a Worlds debut for Aaron, he would be under enormous pressure and even should he skate well and land quads, his PCS and overall marks as a newbie IMO would still place him lower than Jeremy (whether Jere's on or off a bit).

I also disagree with you re Aaron and Miner being the "safest" option, because what is meant by "safest" in any case. USFS like all feds, judge and make selections on the basis of how skaters perform at the qualifying event, how they have performed over the course of the season, whether they have in general good international results, and truthfully whether or not they are in good favor politically or at the least considered to be highly talented with the potential to be competitive at Worlds. Aaron would absolutely have to skate lights out with clean quads and some semblance of better presentation, while other top contenders fail dramatically, IMO, in order to make the team. Max is fairly unknown on senior international circuit, and it's not as if he won't have more opportunities going forward to further develop and build his rep internationally. In general, all of the U.S. guys are trying to develop solid consistency on their quads, which they all need to do in order to build more rep internationally. The key at Nationals is going to be overall strengths and performance level that each competitor demonstrates.

At the moment, and based on their strong programs and at least good to fair competitive showings on the GP this season, obviously Jeremy, Ross and Richard are going to be the ones to beat. I'm not sure Lysacek will compete at Nationals (after his recent injury problems). I hope Johnny performs well (that would be nice to see), but I'm not sure he'll be strong enough to make the team. Again, anything can happen. It will be nice to see whoever makes the team skate great and be well-rewarded at Worlds.


ETA: Okay, so I just saw the thread that Johnny won't be competing at Nationals, so scratch my above reference to him competing there.

pinky166
12-08-2012, 12:15 AM
When I said safest, I meant most likely to skate well, I didn't mean highest scoring. I just feel like the bomb potential of Max and Ross would be less than that of Jeremy and Richard. But you are right in that Max has really no senior international reputation, and even as a junior, he did not have the results someone like Farris has had (won a silver and bronze medal at events a couple years ago, but was only 4th at the final and 5th at JW) to help boost his rankings and reputation higher. It's true the start order would be early, the PCS could be low, and we saw at Nationals last year in the FS, even the domestic judges were willing to give him meh PCS marks when he didn't have a great FS (and it wasn't even a meltdown). The more I think about it, the more I think you are right. I'd just like to see him get some ISU competition so he can get a SB score and finally get a GP or two next season. Maybe 4CCs is more realistic. It really is a shame skaters of Max and Keegan's calliber have never gotten GP assignments to date, but I guess between not dominating as juniors and boosting WS that way or getting a top 25 SB the year they aged out, host spot was really the only option. It's a shame senior Bs don't count for a ISU SB score..

Proustable
12-08-2012, 01:19 AM
Hmmm....... ideally, this year's US Nationals resembles the 2008 Canadian nationals, where losing the title lit a fire in the leading man that he took all the way to worlds. Replace Chan with Miner and Buttle with Abbott (okay, ideally, Abbott wins Nationals and excels at Worlds, but I'd be okay if it were just at Worlds).

Jammers
12-08-2012, 01:53 AM
Hmmm....... ideally, this year's US Nationals resembles the 2008 Canadian nationals, where losing the title lit a fire in the leading man that he took all the way to worlds. Replace Chan with Miner and Buttle with Abbott (okay, ideally, Abbott wins Nationals and excels at Worlds, but I'd be okay if it were just at Worlds).
The problem is Abbott will face a much deeper field then Buttle did back in 2008 even if he makes it to Worlds.

Jammers
12-08-2012, 01:54 AM
Hmmm....... ideally, this year's US Nationals resembles the 2008 Canadian nationals, where losing the title lit a fire in the leading man that he took all the way to worlds. Replace Chan with Miner and Buttle with Abbott (okay, ideally, Abbott wins Nationals and excels at Worlds, but I'd be okay if it were just at Worlds).
The problem is Abbott will face a much deeper field then Buttle did back in 2008 even if he makes it to Worlds. Also it will take a quad just to make the podium unlike 2008.

pinky166
12-08-2012, 04:45 PM
So after the GPF, I'm just, sigh, frustrated. The scores of Chan, Dai, and Hanyu with errors is just making it hard to imagine how the US men are going to be able to bridge that gaping score gap that currently stands. Two quads and two 3as is only really looking like a possibility for Aaron and an on-Dornbush, but they don't have the PCS, and Ricky's mistakes aren't going to help his shoot up either, and Max is virtually unknown on the ISU stage. We need to figure out how to crack the code and master CoP the way the Japanese and Chan, and even an "on" Fernandez have, so we can reemerge as a dominant Nation in the men's field. I'm just not sure what it will take or how to go about doing it.

NadineWhite
12-08-2012, 06:35 PM
I haven't yet watched the men, and don't plan to, but I immediately looked up the scores to see who won.

If I were the USA men I would be shaking in my boots, literally, because this Olympics is going to be way different than the last one. Expect more than 1 man (Evgeni Plushenko) to land quads left & right this time out. The Japanese men, Patrick Chan, and Javiar Fernandez make it look like child's play.

No matter how good Jeremy Abbott skates, and imho he skates the very best of any man in history (tied with John Curry that is), he *will not* medal without a quad, period, let alone a 3axel.

Of course skating at the Olympics is a whole other ballgame, but seriously expect at least a couple of those men to hit their quads.

Therefore, imho the USA men have to concentrate on the *Team Event*, that's the only way they're going to earn an Olympic medal of any kind. If they can skate good enough to earn a bronze I'll be more than happy, overjoyed in fact! :saint: :respec: :encore:

My only worry, whom will be good enough to earn that second spot at the Olympics? Will Max Aaron finally concentrate on his presentation (like his exquisite little sister Madeline). Will Keegan Messing finally get it all together (my personal favorite pick for that second spot). Or will Ross Miner come in like Frank Sinatra and do a Lysacek? Oops, one more, the young gun Joshua Farris, good presentation combined with all the technical goods, including a quad and triple axel, makes him a threat.

Final analysis of moi: whomever wants it the most will work like heck between now & then to get their shot at the Olympics; may the best man/men win!!!!! :kickass:

pinky166
12-08-2012, 10:38 PM
I'm curious to see how the US men respond to the widening gap btwn the Japanese + Chan and sometimes Fernandez. I know the ladies situation is different with the technical expectations being a lot lower, but seeing how Ashley was able to make things happen with drive and determination, I wonder if any of the US guys will step up the plate, and say enough of the Japan-Chan domination, and just fight like hell to get those quads and build up consistency to make the judges finally pay attention and dole out big marks. I don't doubt it could happen, but it's hard to say who, my money isn't on Jeremy btwn his age, fragile competitive mindset, and injuries, but most of the other guys are pretty young still so it will be interesting to see. Very excited for Nationals.

Proustable
12-09-2012, 05:38 AM
The problem is Abbott will face a much deeper field then Buttle did back in 2008 even if he makes it to Worlds. Also it will take a quad just to make the podium unlike 2008.

Yes. Wishful thinking and all that jazz on my part.

spikydurian
12-09-2012, 07:01 AM
Final analysis of moi: whomever wants it the most will work like heck between now & then to get their shot at the Olympics; may the best man/men win!!!!!
That's it for Sochi 2014. Only those with the extra.. ie quads will have a shot at the medals. But I think all is not lost for the USA. Between now and Sochi 2014, someone may be able not only have quads but up every aspect of their skating skills, and this/these skater/s can challenge for medal. I think a handful of them can do it. Good luck to the American men.

olympic
12-09-2012, 03:14 PM
So after the GPF, I'm just, sigh, frustrated. The scores of Chan, Dai, and Hanyu with errors is just making it hard to imagine how the US men are going to be able to bridge that gaping score gap that currently stands. Two quads and two 3as is only really looking like a possibility for Aaron and an on-Dornbush, but they don't have the PCS, and Ricky's mistakes aren't going to help his shoot up either, and Max is virtually unknown on the ISU stage. We need to figure out how to crack the code and master CoP the way the Japanese and Chan, and even an "on" Fernandez have, so we can reemerge as a dominant Nation in the men's field. I'm just not sure what it will take or how to go about doing it.

IDK anything except the result that I see. I think the problem in the U.S. has been the lack of a gifted U.S. skater w/ mental fortitude.

Jeremy is definitely a big talent. Like others have alluded to, he would medal at Worlds if he would just pull it together. But, something finally struck me while watching him in the K & C at TEB: He was there and seemed happy with 227 pts. I was like 'Dude, you were just beaten by the no. 6 man from Japan! That's NOT good. I don't care if it's an improvement over SA, because generally you should be doing much better. Save for a few exceptions, you've been underperforming your whole Senior career.' Maybe he's simply not as ambitious or hungry as an Ashley Wagner. In that case, he'll never reach the podium at Worlds or Olympics. Though he has been fortunate in that he hasn't been left behind because no other US man has stepped up. But, being left behind would probably not give him a jolt anyway. He got spanked at '11 Nationals, was off the team, but it didn't really motivate him to change anything afterwards.

I think what is riveting about US men right now is that we have a ton of talent that never consistently delivers and hasn't for the past few years. Combine that with the Lysacek and Weir side shows and it's a big mess.