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pinky166
11-26-2012, 06:09 PM
I think Hanyu has the right idea with doing footwork into the quad and the 3-3 later on. I think the quad in combo is too much pressure maybe, although I don't know if the footwork is even harder to accomplish for some?

For Hanyu this is smart, but idk, it seems like most guys are going for a quad in the SP now regardless of how consistent it is. Dornbush's quad seems fairly consistent so I get him trying it in the SP I guess, but I don't really understand why Abbott, Miner, and Mahbanoozadeh are going for it in the SP when their respective quads are really not that consistent yet. I think they'd be smarter to go for a clean skate with a 3-3 in the SP and save the quads for the FS. Of course, if a skater is prone to edge calls on his 3f or 3lz, and doesn't feel as comfortable doing a 3lo, or the 3a is not so consistent that a quad could help balance out potential issues on that jump, or doesn't have great spins, I can see putting the quad in just to have a better odds should it work, but otherwise, I'm a bit confused. Seems like SP scores in the 60s and low 70s are very common this season among the men, whereas when most were going for the 3-3, scores were more commonly mid 70s-80s.

aftershocks
11-26-2012, 08:49 PM
I'm still hoping Dornbush can bounce back at Nats, I prefer him to Miner but Miner is definitely a lot more consistent at this point... What do people think about a Miner and Dornbush World team? ...

I enjoy both Miner and Dornbush, but IMHO, Miner has always been more consistent. But Ricky won Junior GPF with a great fp to Sherlock Holmes 2010 - 2011. That fp was effing brilliant and it enhanced Ricky's strengths and his reputation. But Ricky's Latin-themed sp from 2010 -2011 was just so-so and he didn't skate that sp as consistently as he did his fp. Ross also had a Latin-themed sp in 2010 - 2011, which he always skated with panache and humor (although some critics seemed to disregard Ross for being "a lightweight" and "not having enough difficulty.") I've always enjoyed Ross' skating so I think most of those types of criticisms are groundless. Sure Ross needs to work on his presentation skills, but he ain't too bad in that aspect either (Ross' Tom Dickson programs this season are awesome). Richard has good programs this season too (I love his sp!), but he is apparently trying to rebuild his confidence, and along with other U.S. men, find consistency on quads.

I doubt the World team will be Miner and Dornbush, since there are only two spots. I don't care how many problems Jeremy has encountered this season and in the past, he is the reigning U.S. National Champion for a reason. On his best day, Jeremy Abbott should blow away Kozuka, Fernandez, Amodio, Brezina, Machida, Mura, et al, with his great technique and superlative artistry, and he would certainly challenge Chan, Dai, and the precociously talented but immature Hanyu.

Re quads: Jeremy landed a gorgeous quad at 2012 Nationals, so he is capable of landing them. I'm not sure why he changed the entrance on his quad this season after he was finally successful last season with a different entry.



I agree about Abbott though, I think his time has past. Sure, Contesti and KVDP were able to pull out the occasional good competition (or usually it was just one program) in their final years, but mostly it was a lot of bombing and disappointing scores, we are seeing that from Verner and Joubert this season, Johnny during his brief comeback, and now Jeremy. He's so much better than what he's been putting out, but between being 28 and his natural inconsistency, and everyone pushing for quads, it's just, he seems like a shadow of his former self. He still scores well when he hits, but unfortunately that isn't very frequently these days...

To each their own viewpoints. But IMHO Samuel Contesti and Kevin van der Perren are in no way comparable to Jeremy Abbott in terms of skating skills, artistry and all-around talent level. Kevin is a great jumper and he seems to be a very sweet and attractive person who has a deep love for skating. Contesti was generally entertaining on the ice and was often able to maintain a level of technical consistency, but his scores never netted him major podium placements because his overall skating is average. Kevin and Samuel were the best in their respective countries and could go to Worlds every year, barring injury, since they had little to no competition domestically.

Jeremy Abbott is 27 (he'll be 28 next June), and he is still in good shape (despite this season's back problems), and he is at his peak artistically. I don't see where you get the idea that Jeremy is "a shadow of his former self." Yes, Jeremy lacks consistency under competition pressure (and this season under physical-related pressures), but what he has achieved as an artist on the ice ultimately can not be measured in podium placements and CoP scores.

As they have in the past, USFS will probably base their World team selections on who goes 1, 2 in January. Going into Nationals, Jeremy is the defending U.S. Champion, and the highest placing U.S. man at 2012 Worlds (and he has previously placed as high as 5th at Worlds), plus his PCS scores are highly competitive and if he hits his programs he will challenge the top men internationally. Lots of variables are involved re Jeremy achieving at least another top five position at Worlds, but there would be even more variables with probably lesser overall payoff if the proven veteran and the best male skater in the U.S., Jeremy Abbott, does not make the World team.



Interesting how Armin is all but out of these conversations for Worlds/Olympics even though he was 4th last year and has had more success with his quad than some of the other guys, also, his 3a finally seems to be consistent now. His pesky little injuries this fall have taken a toll on his skating, I feel like. If he's fully healthy by Nats, he could be in the mix too I think...

Armin M's name is and has been generally mentioned by posters, but there hasn't been a huge amount of discussion about him in particular, likely due to the fact he wasn't at his best at his only GP this season, Skate America. So, perhaps as you said, "his injuries this fall have taken a toll on his skating," and I would add on his confidence as well. Training the quad is not easy, especially if you are injured and if you are limited in the number of early season int'l comp opportunities to get your programs out there. So many U.S. guys have talent, but they are hampered by the competitive depth in the U.S., which makes it hard to gain exposure much less make a mark internationally. Talent, hard work, being in favor politically, staying injury-free, good coaching environment, various other intangibles, as well as a boat-load of luck are all necessary ingredients (as well success breeding success).



... Seems like SP scores in the 60s and low 70s are very common this season among the men, whereas when most were going for the 3-3, scores were more commonly mid 70s-80s.

Under IJS/ CoP, it's fairly unpredictable as to what judges will do in terms of scoring across competitions, let alone across seasons.

pinky166
11-26-2012, 09:07 PM
Well, you're right about Jeremy, it just seems unfortunate to the other guys that Jeremy could feasibly have lots of problems at Nationals, be sent over other guys skating better based on reputation scoring, be sent to Worlds, and then tank there. If he skates really well at Nationals I have no issue with him being sent, as obviously all you mentioned is true, but if it's an Alissa like situation comparable to the ladies event last season, I hope he does not get held up and someone more deserving (and consistent) misses out on a Worlds berth because of it. As for Jeremy being at his artistic peak, I'm not sure about that, he certainly isn't way past it, but I think artistically, and probably technically too, his peak was more 2009-2011 roughly. But maybe that's just me. Also, Jeremy is definitely hands-down, head and shoulders better than Contesti and KVDP ever were, but that doesn't mean his position now isn't similar to that of those two the past few seasons. Skating is tough on the body...

aftershocks
11-26-2012, 09:25 PM
^^ Sure skating is def tough on the body.

Well, they didn't do Jeremy any favors at 2011 Nationals, when they clearly could have. He had performed very well on the GP that season, but they gave him no favors for his mis-steps in his Nationals fp. If anything, Ryan B was favored to win, and he did despite several jump-landing problems in his fp. I'm glad for Ryan that he won, but I do think Jeremy should have edged Ryan in the sp. Jeremy missed making the World team by .19 in 2011, and I don't think it was very wise that they left Jeremy off the team that year.

In any case, USFS is probably not going to "hold up" any one of the guys this January. I just hope they are going to be fairly objective and realistic going in, but this is figure skating. ;) I think in many ways Jeremy is considered the favorite as the defending National champion (and he's clearly a skater who can obtain high PCS scores to match his technical abilities -- he just needs to be in shape mentally and physically to land his jumps under pressure), and if he wins Nationals, he absolutely must also be fully prepared to challenge at Worlds. IMO, Jeremy's peak artistically is now and forever. :swoon:

Ross has certainly raised his stock with his second consecutive NHK Trophy bronze (particularly in a deep field this year), and especially with successfully landing his quad in the fp. I hope Ross' success at NHK will fuel him to a great showing at Nationals. Of course, Dornbush, Farris, Rippon, Messing, Aaron, Mahbahnoozadeh, Razzano, Carriere and others will also be in the mix. If Johnny is healed in time and feeling more fit, he might also do well, but at this point I doubt he would make the team.

Sylvia
11-26-2012, 10:23 PM
Sarah and Drew's latest Inside Edge blog (http://web.icenetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121126&content_id=40416548&vkey=ice_news) for IceNetwork is a Sectional champions roundup - here's an excerpt:

[Max] Aaron, who is coached by Tom Zakrajsek, will be working with Pasquale Camerlengo after Thanksgiving, enhancing his components and working on transitions.

"The whole point is to stay with the other guys in components: Jeremy [Abbott], Adam [Rippon], Ross [Miner], Ricky [Dornbush]," Aaron said. "I don't like playing the catch-up game. I know I have the technical mark; if I can stay with them in components, and get close to 100 points in the technical mark, I know I will be with those men. I don't necessarily want to be known for just jumping."
...
[2nd place Mids finisher, Alexander] Johnson, who trains with Tom Dickson, has been taking several dance classes every week and really working on his skating skills.

"It has allowed my jumping and spinning to improve, as well as the second mark," he said. "If you have a strong basic skating background, it allows more freedom of movement and choreography. A lot of times, people think the component is what you do with your face or your arms, but it's so much more. It's how you move your body; it's the ability to gain flow from one crossover and glide effortlessly across the entire rink."
There are also quotes from Keegan Messing, Stephen Carriere, and the 2012 U.S. junior silver medalist Tim Dolensky (he skated with a stress fracture in his left ankle at Easterns and did not qualify for Nationals).

mathil
11-26-2012, 10:26 PM
I think Hanyu has the right idea with doing footwork into the quad and the 3-3 later on. I think the quad in combo is too much pressure maybe, although I don't know if the footwork is even harder to accomplish for some?

Hanyu doesn't do a quad combo, but he said in one of his interviews that the entrance to his 3-3 is so 'dangerous' that he'd rather do another quad. I guess it really depends on the skater.
About footwork into the solo quad, I guess doing it or not doesn't matter much, considering that those who don't do it don't get dinged for it even if it should be a requirement (see Kozuka at SA for example).

Marco
11-27-2012, 04:08 AM
A Miner + Dornbush world team would also work, but IMO Dornbush really hasn't skated / placed solidly at the bigger comps since 2011 Nationals to warrant more support. If I were the US Fed I would be nervous to back him up again after last year's 4CCs fiasco, unless he really brought it at Nationals. On the flip side, despite bombing last Nationals, Farris actually skated / placed very well in each of his outings this season and past.

All 3 have reliable 3axels (which unfortauntely can't be said for Abbott), so I guess it comes down to who has the most reliable quad. I also feel nervous for Dornbush for completely botching his 3/3 combo at his GP this season AFTER landing the quad and 3axel.

luenatic
11-27-2012, 04:46 AM
Dornbush may need to work on his posture. I think his jump suffers from the posture. It's very hard for him to check the landing when his head is so far forward before the take off. Until then, his jumps will probably be about 50/50 success rate.

aftershocks
11-27-2012, 05:00 AM
A Miner + Dornbush world team would also work, but IMO Dornbush really hasn't skated / placed solidly at the bigger comps since 2011 Nationals to warrant more support. If I were the US Fed I would be nervous to back him up again after last year's 4CCs fiasco, unless he really brought it at Nationals. On the flip side, despite bombing last Nationals, Farris actually skated / placed very well in each of his outings this season and past.

All 3 have reliable 3axels (which unfortauntely can't be said for Abbott), so I guess it comes down to who has the most reliable quad. I also feel nervous for Dornbush for completely botching his 3/3 combo at his GP this season AFTER landing the quad and 3axel.

^^ ITA, but also more importantly Ross is more consistent than Richard and Jeremy, but Jeremy has more artistry, experience, and a higher profile than Ross and Richard. Joshua is a proven up-and-comer with a quad and 3-axel in his arsenal, but he has no experience on the senior circuit so he has less experience and profile than Ross, Richard and Jeremy. So, it remains to be seen who will perform to their best, and we'll see. On paper, I'm thinking Ross and Jeremy for the World team.

Unfortunately, anyone who goes to Worlds for the first time will be unlikely to get the marks they deserve no matter how well they perform (and it isn't easy to perform well under pressure your first time at Worlds). Johnny, Ross, and Richard did perform well in their Worlds debuts but were not given the marks. An exception: Evan didn't perform all that well in 2005 but was given the marks and the bronze, so go figure!

I hope all the skaters in all disciplines have great skates at Nationals, and Worlds too!

ETA:
I disagree that Jeremy's 3-axel is not reliable. He has good technique on it -- when he misses which is not often, it must be due to nerves or lack of focus, or the yips. So, it's not like he has technical problems with his 3-axel, in the way that Adam does.

pinky166
11-27-2012, 05:21 AM
Max Aaron has a consistent 3a and quad (and a 4s which is worth more at that), which is why I think he's a contender. Ross and Joshua have consistent 3a and have both shown they are capable of landing a clean rotated quad with +GOE at an international competition, but each has only done that once, and haven't been attempting quads for that long anyways. Jeremy's 3a isn't quite as consistent as these two and his quad rate isn't great either, but he has the highest PCS of the bunch which helps boost his status. As for Dornbush, he actually has a decent success rate with the 4t, but considering his 3a is not super consistent (it used to be, but after last season appears to still be hit and miss) AND he's prone to botching his SP combo, his consistency with the quad (compared to the others) gives him less of an edge than it might appear on paper. So really, it's a gamble any way you slice it, and even more so when you move on to include other skaters not in this group. 3 spots in this deep of a field is going to be hard to garner is just sort of the reality. If Evan was back and in his 2010 form, or Jeremy was consistent, I'd feel better, but alas..

aftershocks
11-27-2012, 05:28 AM
^^ Yes, ITA in general. Only thing is that Max has yet to be consistent at senior Nationals with his jumps, which are his strongest weapons. And the other thing is that in general skaters who appear at Worlds for the first time in front of senior International judges do not tend to be given the marks they deserve when they skate clean. For those who do score well as first timers and medal, a la Gachinski and Lysacek, it is probably a combination of genuine talent, and huge doses of politics and luck.

Marco
11-27-2012, 07:58 AM
Dornbush may need to work on his posture. I think his jump suffers from the posture. It's very hard for him to check the landing when his head is so far forward before the take off. Until then, his jumps will probably be about 50/50 success rate.

Thanks for pointing that out. I never noticed that it might be a burden. Is it worse for the quad? Sure his posture is weird, but his triples are generally extremely solid. I have always thought his issue with the quad is due to the genuine difficulty of the quad itself instead of a technical issue.

Marco
11-27-2012, 08:05 AM
^^ ITA, but also more importantly Ross is more consistent than Richard and Jeremy, but Jeremy has more artistry, experience, and a higher profile than Ross and Richard. Joshua is a proven up-and-comer with a quad and 3-axel in his arsenal, but he has no experience on the senior circuit so he has less experience and profile than Ross, Richard and Jeremy. So, it remains to be seen who will perform to their best, and we'll see. On paper, I'm thinking Ross and Jeremy for the World team.

I absolutely think Miner is THE first choice for Worlds, very much like Flatt in 2009. Not a medal contender yet, but gets enough of the job done that he can secure the second spot and help make a run for the third.

I would love to be proven wrong, but I have a feeling this is another year where Abbott would be left in the dust at Nationals. His issue with the 3axel might not be technical, but he is just too inconsistent with it, and he inclines to pop all the time which is deadly. And this season even his easier triples are not always there. Abbott is a great skater, but he hasn't gone to that stage where he gets huge scores despite multiple errors. I am not that convinced that a mediocre skate from him can still score more than a solid skate from a Miner, Dornbush or Farris.

casken
11-27-2012, 08:30 AM
I am not that convinced that a mediocre skate from him can still score more than a solid skate from a Miner, Dornbush or Farris.

Internationally, Abbott (justifiably IMO) still commands PCS for mediocre skates that other US skaters aren't reaching, even with solid skates. I don't think that will change at worlds.

However, as we saw in 2011, the US judges have no problem throwing out unrealistic PCS for skaters who stand up on a few more jumps, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's off the world team again this year either. I'm figuring it will be Miner and Dornbush.

Abbott's usually good for at least one or two truly great performances a season, so hopefully Nationals and then Worlds is it.

Marco
11-27-2012, 09:16 AM
Internationally, Abbott (justifiably IMO) still commands PCS for mediocre skates that other US skaters aren't reaching, even with solid skates. I don't think that will change at worlds.

However, as we saw in 2011, the US judges have no problem throwing out unrealistic PCS for skaters who stand up on a few more jumps, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's off the world team again this year either. I'm figuring it will be Miner and Dornbush.

Abbott's usually good for at least one or two truly great performances a season, so hopefully Nationals and then Worlds is it.

Abbott usually scores low 8s while Miner scores mid 7s. That's about 5 points in total PCS difference in the free skate. Between popping jumps and losing spin levels, Abbott's PCS advantage is quickly lost.

It's no good for him to have only one truly great performance per season. In 2009 it was GPF and he was subpar at Nationals and Worlds. In 2010 it was Nationals and he was subpar at Olympics and Worlds. In 2011 it was 4CCs and it meant he didn't make the world team. In 2012 it was Nationals again and he was again subpar at Worlds.