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Vagabond
11-26-2012, 03:33 AM
IINM, Brandon Mroz finished third at Midwestern Sectionals with a Total Score of 200.32.

Sylvia
11-26-2012, 04:39 AM
If anyone has an IceNetwork subscription, I recommend watching Max Aaron's and Alex Johnson's performances at Midwestern Sectionals earlier this month. Their FS protocols: http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2013/68388/SEGM029.html
I was looking at this protocol again and realized that Aaron didn't receive the 10% bonus for his 3Lo at the end of his Mids FS. His jumps were 4S+3T (16.35 points with the added + GOE), 2S, then 6 jumping passes in the second half: 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3A, 3Lz+1Lo+3S, 3F(e), 3Lo (5.10 Base Value should have been 5.61, which would have bumped his Total BV over 80 and TES score over 90). Alex Johnson's FS protocol is also impressive, numbers-wise (Brandon Mroz and William Brewster are the other 2 qualifiers from Mids to Nationals).

pinky166
11-26-2012, 06:00 AM
LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

His PCS were quite good at his senior Bs. I know people think that Max and Keegan especially have a lot of work to do PCS wise, but looking at international scores, there PCS are pretty strong, and with the exception of Jeremy, most of our current guys are getting comparable PCS internationally (among Dornbush, Miner, Rippon, Farris, etc). I know their skating maybe looks messy or not particularly artistic, but speed and power can often translate to strong PCS even if said skater lacks refinement (case in point - Gracie Gold).

Anyways it sounds like Farris gave up on really pushing to make the Sochi Olympic team when he stayed junior this season (be it his own choice or someone else's), of course, if there are 3 spots on the team and Evan and Johnny are likely out of the picture, that could change. He said he wanted to go to JW again this year though and hopes to win. Maybe he is just being realistic and doesn't want to get his hopes up, but it at least seems like he's not really expecting to get to senior Worlds this season, though I'd doubt he'd turn down the opportunity if offered though. I would be surprised if he's top 2 anyways, but I do think maybe 3rd-5th is possible, meaning he could get 4CC and JW, which I really think would be best for him this season. If the Sochi team has 2 spots, he likely won't make that team and will focus on 2018, but if we do get 3 spots, and he does well at JGPF, Nats, and 4CC and/or JW, then that would set him up nicely and he could have a legitimate shot.

I'm interested to see how the JGPF goes first. Josh seems more consistent this season but he admitted to struggling with nerves at the JGP in Slovenia, where unlike Lake Placid there was a deep field, most notably Han Yan but also Boyang Jin who has a quad and Keiji Tanaka who has potential to be really good if he ever puts it together. Regardless, he held it together, won, put out a clean SP and a respectable FS, but the free was not as good as it could have been, he's definitely capable of a lot better. He's the 1st qualifier in the JGPF, but Kovtun earned a higher score at one event, has 3a and 4t, and will be skating at home. If Kovtun skates well at the final, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get huge scores like 80 for SP and 150-160 for FS. If all the guys were to skate their best, Josh would probably win, but at the last two JGPFs he had some problems, much like he's had at Nats since becoming a senior. These upcoming competitions should give us a better idea of how strong and reliable a competitor he has or hasn't become and then along with everyone else we should get a better idea of what's likely to go down between now and Sochi.

The way I see it at this point, the "contenders" for the World/Olympic team can be divided as follows, 3 groups with 2 subgroups in each. Just my opinion, feel free to comment and voice yours:

Likely:
Abbott
Miner
--------------------------------------
Lysacek (if returns and on-form)
Dornbush

Possibly:
Aaron
Farris
-------------------
Mahbanoozadeh
Rippon
Messing

Unlikely, but possible:
Weir (if actually goes through with comeback)
Brown (provided he's having success with 3a in competition)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mroz (just because he can do a lot of quads)
Razzano
Carriere
Johnson

aftershocks
11-26-2012, 06:13 AM
Re Adam: I thought he looked more loose and relaxed in his fp at NHK than he did at CoR, plus he landed both 3-axels with what seemed like a slight two-footing on the first one and landing a bit forward on the second, but still he looked more confident going into them and he made the revolutions. I also like his change of costume for the fp at NHK. He brought a bit of sparkle back on his top, and the black gave him a nice profile on the ice. He seemed much more comfortable with the program, and I thought he deserved higher PCS scores.

If Adam continues to improve and is strong at Nationals, it will be so interesting to see what happens. I think Adam has beautiful artistry but he needs a consistent 3-axel plus the quad has also become essential. I don't know if Adam has been working as much on training his quad for this season, as he has been trying to master proper technique on his 3-axel. It's too bad that the judges seem to ignore superb PCS quality if they feel a skater is not as consistent technically.

apatinar
11-26-2012, 10:36 AM
I really hope that the world team is Miner and Farris. I am really tired of seeing Abbott and Alissa on TV every week making different excuses for why they didn't skate well. I just hope this nightmare era of them being at the top of US skating will end soon so that we can have some skating stars who can compete well..

pinky166
11-26-2012, 02:27 PM
I'm still hoping Dornbush can bounce back at Nats, I prefer him to Miner but Miner is definitely a lot more consistent at this point. As for Farris I want to see how he does at the JGPF next week first. If he can pull a Dornbush and win in a dominant fashion, that could help him going into Nats, especially because like the year Dornbush won, there are no senior men in the GPF. But if he doesn't win or even medal, or wins but only because it's a splatfest, then maybe JW is the best thing for him this season. Time will tell. Though I will say he rebounded really well at JW after not skating well at Nats last season, so a lackluster JGPF could lead to a similar result come Nats in January (and honestly, regardless of Worlds, I'd like to see him skate well at Nationals just to see where he ends up when he isn't bombing). Of course it would be nice if he could skate well at both comps, but I feel like there isn't much pressure on him going into JGPF, so his skating there may speak to his relative consistency.

I agree about Abbott though, I think his time has past. Sure, Contesti and KVDP were able to pull out the occasional good competition (or usually it was just one program) in their final years, but mostly it was a lot of bombing and disappointing scores, we are seeing that from Verner and Joubert this season, Johnny during his brief comeback, and now Jeremy. He's so much better than what he's been putting out, but between being 28 and his natural inconsistency, and everyone pushing for quads, it's just, he seems like a shadow of his former self. He still scores well when he hits, but unfortunately that isn't very frequently these days.

What do people think about a Miner and Dornbush World team?

Wyliefan
11-26-2012, 02:56 PM
I really hope that the world team is Miner and Farris. I am really tired of seeing Abbott and Alissa on TV every week making different excuses for why they didn't skate well. I just hope this nightmare era of them being at the top of US skating will end soon so that we can have some skating stars who can compete well..

:confused: Alissa? Don't look now, but she hasn't skated all season.

icellist
11-26-2012, 03:11 PM
I'm fine with a combination for the Worlds team of...

Jeremy Abbott
Ross Miner
Richard Dornbush
Joshua Farris

Who knows what the golden duo for 3 spots is...

gkelly
11-26-2012, 03:51 PM
Well, the three spots will depend not only on how well the US guys skate but also on what the other guys do. There are well over 10 skaters who could end up in the top 10.

pinky166
11-26-2012, 04:31 PM
Interesting how Armin is all but out of these conversations for Worlds/Olympics even though he was 4th last year and has had more success with his quad than some of the other guys, also, his 3a finally seems to be consistent now. His pesky little injuries this fall have taken a toll on his skating, I feel like. If he's fully healthy by Nats, he could be in the mix too I think.

Also with so many guys messing up the SP this season, I wonder if btwn now and Sochi things will change and more men will take the quad out of the SP and go for a clean SP. I doubt we'll see a lot of men reverting to quadless FS like was common in 2010, I bet they will continue to go for 1, 2, or even 3 quads there along with 1 or 2 3as, but idk, seems like a clean SP with no quad can usually score better than a flawed one with a quad.

dawnie
11-26-2012, 04:42 PM
What do people think about a Miner and Dornbush World team?

This is what I'm hoping for, with Farris and Aaron as alternates. I agree with those that said who cares about 3 spots at this point. Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir are no guarantees to get the 3rd spot back so might as well start promoting the new guys, not the old ones.

haribobo
11-26-2012, 04:45 PM
I think Hanyu has the right idea with doing footwork into the quad and the 3-3 later on. I think the quad in combo is too much pressure maybe, although I don't know if the footwork is even harder to accomplish for some?

olympic
11-26-2012, 04:47 PM
I took a glance at the ISU best list for this season. The US men aren't in such bad shape as I thought.


1. 262.35 Patrick CHAN CAN

2. 261.03 Yuzuru HANYU JPN

3. 253.94 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP

4. 251.51 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN

5. 251.44 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN

6. 238.34 Nobunari ODA JPN

7. 236.92 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN

8. 235.37 Ross MINER USA

9. 230.68 Takahito MURA JPN

10. 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT USA

When you only include the top 3 JPN men (which will be the case at Worlds), Ross and Jeremy are 6th and 7th respectively. That totals 13 pts. and 3 spots if things just keep going like this. Of course, Brezina and Amodio have really underperformed thus far and we can't rule them out but the US isn't doing too badly (for some reason, in my mind, it was worse)

Sylvia
11-26-2012, 04:50 PM
Whoa, olympic! can you please reformat your post?

ETA:

FWIW, here are the top 3 FS international scores among the U.S. men so far this season:
168.80 Dornbush (Finlandia) 92.12 TES
161.96 Miner (NHK Trophy) 86.74 TES
156.58 Aaron (Salt Lake Sr B) 83.58 TES

Next, these are the 9 men who've scored 140+ in a FS internationally, ranked by their TES score:
Dornbush (NHK Trophy) 78.29 TES
Mahbanoozadeh (Salt Lake Sr B) 76.43
Carriere (Nebelhorn) 75.93
Farris (JGP Lake Placid) 75.49
Rippon (NHK Trophy) 75.22
Messing (Nebelhorn) 74.52
Miner (Skate Canada) 73.91
Dornbush (Rostelecom Cup) 73.89
Messing (Cup of Nice) 71.33
Aaron (Cup of Nice) 71.01
Miner (Salt Lake Sr B) 69.09
Abbott (TEB) 63.75

Top Domestic FS scores:
157.70 [should be 158.21] Aaron 89.58 TES [should be 90.09] (Midwestern Sectionals)
151.42 Dornbush 76.16 TES (Glacier Falls)
151.39 Alexander Johnson 75.23 TES (Midwestern Sectionals)
Also, Jason Brown (TES unknown) and Grant Hochstein (74.25 TES) have scored over 140 in club competition exhibition free skates (eta: Brown also scored 149.09 in his Regionals FS exhibition in October, TES unknown).

Maybe I'll get around to breaking down short program scores similarly later...

olympic
11-26-2012, 04:54 PM
see above. Sorry!