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Marco
11-25-2012, 05:30 PM
I guess the World team will consist of the 2 men among Abbott, Farris, Miner, Dornbush and perhaps Rippon who land the most quads and 3axels at Nationals. The others are a bit low in the world rankings and that would mean skating too early in the short program. The US Fed must be extremely clueless as to who to support, with none of the senior men making GPF.

I say take a chance with Farris and Miner. Give them a little cushion. If they skate solid enough at Nationals, then send them to 4CCs (with Abbott or Dornbush) and then to Worlds. The chance of dropping to one spot is not that high, and there really isn't another combination that has a high chance to bringing back the 3rd spot anyways. Abbott almost always peaks around Nationals or 4CCs and pops too often.

dots
11-25-2012, 08:55 PM
My picks are Ross Miner/ Jeremy Abbott.

IMO USFSA will be picking the two skaters that could/have potential to score a 70+ SP and 160+ LP.

My dark horse is Joshua Ferris.

Max Aaron and Keegan Messing have done great without having GP spots, but realistically they are in the same boat as Richard Dornbush.


Unfortunately (and I'm pretty sure about this!) Adam Rippon, Armin Mahbanoozadeh, Johnny Weir, and Evan Lysacek are out of contention for the world team.


For the world team

Miner/Abbott

or

Miner/Ferris.

For 4CC: (Abbott will skip it to rest I'm sure)

Miner and a combination of Ferris/Messing/Dornbush/Aaron.

aftershocks
11-25-2012, 08:55 PM
I hope you're right. I have faith in Ross. I'm not so sure about Jeremy... I'm making a bold prediction here: Ross and Farris for 2013 World team.

Well, how they all perform at Nationals in January will be the major factor determining who will make the World team. On the basis of overall program quality and performance results re the GP this season, I am pulling for Jeremy and Ross to make the World team in 2013.

I do think it is important for the U.S. men to bring back 3 spots for next season. That will provide another spot and more opportunity for perhaps an up-and-comer like Joshua to gain experience for the next cycle (post Sochi), if Joshua is lucky enough next year to grab a third spot at Nationals. It's important to review everything in addition to looking at who has performed strongly on the senior GP circuit. In making judgments, I think taking a "long term" approach to selecting the World team this season is a rather risky strategy.

Just because Jeremy has had some physical problems this season (and has also suffered from inconsistencies under pressure) does not mean he isn't talented and competitive with the best men in the world, IMHO. Jeremy has two of the best programs among all men this season, and his artistry surpasses Chan's and is at the least competitive with Dai's, if not superior to his as well. Of course, Jeremy needs to meld technical consistency with his unparalled artistry. Sure, Jeremy will also need to perform like he is the front-runner at Nationals, but I still have faith in Jeremy.

I agree with olympic that Richard is very talented too and will be in the mix competitively at Nationals, as should Adam if he can master his jumps and feel more comfortable with his new programs. I really like Richard's sp and he has a competent fp as well. However, Richard seems to still be working on building his confidence under pressure. Joshua, IMO will do well to perform to his abilities and get into bronze medal position at Nationals, but I think more likely it will be a victory for Joshua simply to make the top five at Nationals after his poor showing at Nationals 2012. If Joshua does well at Nationals 2013, he should probably be sent to 4CCs, and then try to win Junior Worlds. Mahbahnoozadeh and Razzano might also successfully land quads at Nationals, so it's not a slam dunk that Aaron and Farris will be leapfrogging over everyone.

While Max Aaron is a good quad jumper, he needs to work on many other areas of his skating and presentation skills, IMO. Keegan Messing has more charisma and entertaining programs than Aaron, but Messing also still needs a chance to build confidence and reputation and to work on consistency. It would be a mistake, IMO, to send junior skaters and up-and-comers who have never performed on the senior GP circuit to Worlds. Even should they skate clean, they will be low-balled. In 2011, Ross had made appearances on the senior GP circuit and Richard was the junior GPF champion and they both skated cleanly at Worlds 2011, but were completely low-balled in the marks because of their unknown factor (even with quads I doubt they would have been given the marks they deserved due to lack of reputation and high profile with the ISU judges).

No matter what happens, I'm looking forward to a strong competition at Nationals in the singles events. In a way, the fact no U.S. guys made GPF is fine. They should focus on working hard to prevail at Nationals and peak at Worlds (those who are selected to go ... again I'm hoping it's Ross and Jeremy and that they perform to their absolute best at Worlds and bring back 3 spots for next season).

museksk8r
11-25-2012, 09:18 PM
Anyways. I say Worlds team, at this point, should be Miner and Aaron.

LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

centerpt1
11-25-2012, 09:20 PM
I hope Jeremy is able to heal up, lose weight, and be on top of his game come Nationals. Sure looks doubtful at the moment, though. I hope he's well enough to get some quad practice in.

I do think Ross and Jeremy would give the highest placement potential at Worlds, but , still getting the 3 spots back is unlikely.

aftershocks
11-25-2012, 09:29 PM
LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

^^ ITA.

Aaron has a lot of work to do before he can make a breakthrough at Nats to even be selected for senior GPF (forget about Worlds).

Farris is incredibly talented but I'm sure his sights are set on honing his skills, doing well at Nationals and making a statement at Junior Worlds to set himself up for a good senior GP showing next season. Realistically, Olympics 2018 is probably Farris' ultimate goal.


I hope Jeremy is able to heal up, lose weight, and be on top of his game come Nationals. Sure looks doubtful at the moment, though. I hope he's well enough to get some quad practice in.

I do think Ross and Jeremy would give the highest placement potential at Worlds, but, still getting the 3 spots back is unlikely.

Fair enough, but it's not out of the question. Performing to their best, anything can happen with Worlds placements for Ross and Jeremy. Surely at their best, they could manage to place 4th or 5th (Jeremy) and anywhere from 6th to 8th (Ross), and both have the potential to place higher with landing quads successfully and should other skaters with higher-rep and over-rated PCS make mistakes.

toddlj
11-25-2012, 10:28 PM
LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

I don't necessarily agree. When Mroz was sent to worlds, the judges seemed surprisingly willing to reward him for jumps despite all of his other shortcomings.

Vagabond
11-25-2012, 10:30 PM
LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

At this season's Cup of Nice, Max Aaron scored 75.95 in the SP, with PCS of 35.83, and that was with a fall, which should have had some negative effect on his second mark. At Worlds last season, the twenty-fourth-placed man in the SP had a score of 57.22, and a score of 75.95 would have earned ninth place. You can say what you will about how Senior "B" events have softer judging than ISU Championships, but I think that if he does go to Worlds this season, he'll make the Free Skate.

aftershocks
11-26-2012, 01:04 AM
Of course anything can happen, and there's really no telling what fs judges will do. I think it's generally true that they tend to reward successful jumping (technical abilities) over presentation skills which are more subjective. IOW, if a skater has great jumping ability and is fairly consistent, their PCS tends to be higher whether or not they are any great shakes (or "great skates" ;)) artistically.

In any case, it seems to me that most fs judges feel absolutely "entitled" to do whatever they so please within the bounds of IJS system and political trends channeled from ISU PTB, and the respective feds PTB.

In regard to Max Aaron, he has potential to move up and do well at Nats and perhaps eventually have success at major senior international events. Right now, I think he's still working out the kinks, especially from what I see in these links. Now, if anyone has more recent and better links to better performances from Max, I'd love to catch a glimpse of why he's so highly regarded by some as a top contender to make the World team.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPYM62pUwoA Aaron sp GF

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jpTHpmS_vA Aaron fp GF

Sylvia
11-26-2012, 01:45 AM
If anyone has an IceNetwork subscription, I recommend watching Max Aaron's and Alex Johnson's performances at Midwestern Sectionals earlier this month. Their FS protocols: http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2013/68388/SEGM029.html

mag
11-26-2012, 02:26 AM
Max Aaron is the current quad master among the US men. He wasn't on the GP this season because he placed 8th at '12 Nationals. However, he has done extremely well in "B" competitions this autumn. He won SLC international with a 231.27 score beating both Armin & Ross. He placed 2nd at Cup of Nice with a 219.62.
I don't see Farris as being ready to jump to the podium at Nationals as yet. Better for him to go to Jr. Worlds & win & have a shot at a spot on the GP next year. My gut is telling me it will be Miner & Abbott going to Worlds this year. Too soon to predict for the Olympic team altho I do think that Ross will make it. He keeps improving step by step, competition by competition.

One more time, just for fun, placements at Nationals do not affect GP assignments except SA host pick. GP spots are based on international scores from the previous season.

Vagabond
11-26-2012, 02:34 AM
Of course anything can happen, and there's really no telling what fs judges will do. I think it's generally true that they tend to reward successful jumping (technical abilities) over presentation skills which are more subjective. IOW, if a skater has great jumping ability and is fairly consistent, their PCS tends to be higher whether or not they are any great shakes (or "great skates" ;)) artistically.

In any case, it seems to me that most fs judges feel absolutely "entitled" to do whatever they so please within the bounds of IJS system and political trends channeled from ISU PTB, and the respective feds PTB.

In regard to Max Aaron, he has potential to move up and do well at Nats and perhaps eventually have success at major senior international events. Right now, I think he's still working out the kinks, especially from what I see in these links. Now, if anyone has more recent and better links to better performances from Max, I'd love to catch a glimpse of why he's so highly regarded by some as a top contender to make the World team.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPYM62pUwoA Aaron sp GF

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jpTHpmS_vA Aaron fp GF

Watch those videos again. He skates with tremendous speed and power, which aren't everything but can translate into high marks for Skating Skills and, since judges consider the Skating Skills mark before the other Program Components, higher overall PCS than one might expect, at least when the skater lands his jumps.

These videos (apparently taken or at least posted by our very own UMBS Go Blue) were shot from a fixed, elevated vantage point that makes it easier to see how fast Aaron skates. That's something you can't always tell from a broadcast feed, which uses a variety of vantage points, mostly at or close to rink level.

aftershocks
11-26-2012, 03:18 AM
^^ Well, of course Max Aaron is a talented skater with some great assets including jumps, speed, and ice coverage. He needs to develop better artistry, musical interpretation, and consistency. Maybe he should switch coaches (as did Joshua) in order to have any chance of greatly improving in the latter categories.

Right now I don't get IceNetwork, so I can't check out Aaron's most recent performances. As far as the posted GF vids, Aaron was inconsistent on his jumps and to me did not show much improvement artistically, albeit he was at an early season comp. I like his music and costume. Perhaps he will have a better Nationals in January 2013 than he did in 2012.

judiz
11-26-2012, 03:19 AM
Nobody has mentioned Brandon Mroz, not a fan of his but wondering if he is still skating?

aftershocks
11-26-2012, 03:20 AM
AFAIK, Brandon is still skating this season.