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View Full Version : U.S. Ladies [#5]: All That Glitters Is Not Gold



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kwanatic
11-20-2012, 03:35 PM
I do think she's been working on it but you know that old adage "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"...that applies to Ashley right now. She's scoring very well with her current content. Given her scoring trend in the SP right now, I don't think she'd be that far behind as long as she skates cleanly. Julia hit all of her tricks and Ashley was less than a point behind her. I see the SP scores at the GPF being very crowded if everyone skates cleanly. That means it will come down to the LP and Ashley is the standard for clean LPs right now. She's always been a strong LP skater so this isn't new, but given that so many usually have problems in the LP this is yet another advantage for Ashley.

In short, at least for the Final, as long as she keeps doing what she's doing she'll be fine. But I do think we'll see some tougher content for worlds...

jlai
11-21-2012, 05:21 AM
I think if she had one consistently she would have thrown it in already. and it's not that simple to obtain a "harder jump" combination.

No, but nothing at stake at GPF, other than mental factors. She doesn't need to win the gpf to be taken seriously at nationals or later competitions. Why not try one?

re: triple triple. Too early to say whether she needs it for worlds. Too often what happens earlier in the season doesn't predict what happens later.

But Ashley could try a triple triple or 2a-3t once in an international with low stakes, like the gpf. That way if she needs it later she has it.

cbd1235
11-21-2012, 06:21 AM
No jinxing, Marco :P

Of all the skaters who I think could beat Ashley: It will be interesting to see where Kostner and Kim are - Kim hasn't competed competitively since '11 Worlds, and before that '10 Worlds. At '11 Worlds, she was beaten by Ando w/o a 3-3. Kostner has conquered many demons, but can she take the pressure of defending her crown? Also, will she add a Lutz back to her reportoire and how would she handle that w/ hardly any comps leading up to Worlds? Asada can be magical but she doesn't seem to do the 3x or a 3-3, either. Plus, she got nailed w/ UR's at CoC. I think NHK might tell us a little more.

I don't think Tuktamysheva, Korpi or Suzuki can beat Ashley in the short-term. Tuk skated lights out in Paris and was still nearly 11 pts. adrift of Ashley. Suzuki is in the twilight of her career. She's doing well for herself, is a great package of artistry, but I personally don't think she will keep up the intensity for much longer. Korpi is beloved by the judges but technically doesn't have the chops to beat Ashley IMO.

Sotnikova is a question mark. Ashley beat her, but she's been spectacularly bad this season. I can't compare her potential to Ashley yet.

Two thumbs up for you :D

Triple Butz
11-21-2012, 04:38 PM
But Ashley could try a triple triple or 2a-3t once in an international with low stakes, like the gpf. That way if she needs it later she has it.

She has tried it several times over the past two and a half seasons and I'm sure she does spend time practicing it. She's only done it cleanly without a 2ft and/or > once (CoR 2010) so she's getting better points by doing a 2a/2t with good GOE. I wonder if she would consider doing a 3t+2a+SEQ...it may be more feasible. Though, in the grand scheme of things it isn't going to boost her score more than a point or two. Then again, she may get another PCS bump for doing 7 triples instead of 6.

olympic
11-21-2012, 05:41 PM
She has tried it several times over the past two and a half seasons and I'm sure she does spend time practicing it. She's only done it cleanly without a 2ft and/or > once (CoR 2010) so she's getting better points by doing a 2a/2t with good GOE. I wonder if she would consider doing a 3t+2a+SEQ...it may be more feasible. Though, in the grand scheme of things it isn't going to boost her score more than a point or two. Then again, she may get another PCS bump for doing 7 triples instead of 6.

Good point about the 3t - 2x seq. I'm of the mind set that anything helps - if she squeezes another couple of points out of a 3t over a 2t, then that will only help her in a tight competition. The 2x sequences are easy for Ashley. After all, she does the 3l - 2x seq. just fine late in her LP. But, maybe that 2x-3t will eventually happen.

BTW, I'm curious as to why she switched around the 3sal and the 3flutz from her 'Black Swan' LP layout': The 3sal comes earlier and the 3flutz later. Considering she flutzes, the change-up doesn't seem to give her a scoring edge (normally, a 3z in the 2d half of the program would be beneficial cuz it's worth more...

Coco
11-21-2012, 07:26 PM
Well, I think that the .10 bonus on the lutz negates some of the deduction for the inside edge.

I wish she'd learn to do a proper lutz takeoff and use 2z-3t until she has a true 3z. This would give her practice on doing 3t on the back of a jump combination. If she put this in place of her current 3z, she'd have to omit the 2t from the 2a-2t. I believe the impact to her TES would be a loss of 1.18. She could make some of that back if she added a difficult feature or two to the 2a. I think she's capable of that because 2a is a strong jump for her and her legs are fresh at the beginning of the program. Also, if she's able to show better technique on the 2z-3t than she is on the 3z, she'd be gaining back the guaranteed loss of 1.0 in GOE.

So happy for her success, but this has to be one of the worst flutzes ever. Never at any time is she even on the outside edge of the non-landing foot. They should call it a flip. What's scary is that they could call it a flip w/in the rules, I believe. And you know that's going to happen at the worst possible moment.

I wonder why she's doing 3l+2a+seq instead of 3l2t. 3l3t is within reach for her, so I'm not sure why she's doing the much trickier 3l+2a+seq as it's riskier, imo, instead of working on the loop-toe combo. And it's only worth .24 more, if my math is right.

I GUESS WE'LL NEVER KNOW :)

emma1227
11-21-2012, 09:57 PM
Completely agree, some great juniors coming up as well.
I think we will do well in Sochi. Let's hope we can send three girls.
It's the Renaissance of American Ladies. Good to see! Seems that Wagner, Gold, Gao and Zawadski ( and maybe Nagasu) are ready to compete and win over anybody. So excited for Nationals, Worlds etc.

smarts1
11-21-2012, 10:06 PM
Well, I think that the .10 bonus on the lutz negates some of the deduction for the inside edge.

I wish she'd learn to do a proper lutz takeoff and use 2z-3t until she has a true 3z. This would give her practice on doing 3t on the back of a jump combination. If she put this in place of her current 3z, she'd have to omit the 2t from the 2a-2t. I believe the impact to her TES would be a loss of 1.18. She could make some of that back if she added a difficult feature or two to the 2a. I think she's capable of that because 2a is a strong jump for her and her legs are fresh at the beginning of the program. Also, if she's able to show better technique on the 2z-3t than she is on the 3z, she'd be gaining back the guaranteed loss of 1.0 in GOE.

So happy for her success, but this has to be one of the worst flutzes ever. Never at any time is she even on the outside edge of the non-landing foot. They should call it a flip. What's scary is that they could call it a flip w/in the rules, I believe. And you know that's going to happen at the worst possible moment.

I wonder why she's doing 3l+2a+seq instead of 3l2t. 3l3t is within reach for her, so I'm not sure why she's doing the much trickier 3l+2a+seq as it's riskier, imo, instead of working on the loop-toe combo. And it's only worth .24 more, if my math is right.

I GUESS WE'LL NEVER KNOW :)

The 3 Loop-2 Axel sequence is actually 0.5 more. I suspect they put it back in this season because skaters receive criticism for using the same jump layout and content. On top of that, it seems that that sequence has received more positive GOEs than her doing simply a 3 Loop-2 Toe. The higher GOE that combo got was probably 0.4, whereas the 3 Loop-2 Axel sequence has gotten even more than 1 point this season.

And I don't know why everyone makes such a big deal out of her flutz and thinks that it's absolutely necessary for her fix it. She's doing perfectly fine with it and doesn't even receive more than 0.7 in deductions so I don't see why she should leave it out of her program until "it's fixed". At this level, I'm not sure skaters can completely fix their jump edges.

cbd1235
11-21-2012, 10:22 PM
Ashley's lutz was borderline real last year. The odd time she would actually do it off an outside edge! I'm disappointed that it has gotten noticeably worse this year :/

BmcC102
11-21-2012, 10:45 PM
I agree with smarts1. The flutz issue is SO small! There are so many men and ladies who don't do their flip or lutz on the right edge. She is now doing one lutz a competition, in the second half of the program, where it receives bonus. It's such a BIG jump with a great landing, who gives a rats @ss if it's not perfect on take-off? She's getting the deduction, that's enough for me. :rolleyes:

jlai
11-21-2012, 11:16 PM
I'd love for Ashley to kick some ass at worlds, but I think all the confident talk from Wagner's camp lately is almost asking for...a jinx from Skategod, esp considering how things can change by March. Hopefully things will go her way though

RD
11-21-2012, 11:20 PM
^ that's my biggest fear...you just don't know what can happen in the next few months...

mgobluegirl
11-21-2012, 11:51 PM
I'd love for Ashley to kick some ass at worlds, but I think all the confident talk from Wagner's camp lately is almost asking for...a jinx from Skategod, esp considering how things can change by March. Hopefully things will go her way though

But what's fresh about the confident talk is that it's backed up by really hard work and training. She's not saying anything bad about others, or even comparing herself to other skaters, she just says that she feels good with herself and where she is with her skating. I don't think it's a bad outlook to have.

jlai
11-22-2012, 02:08 AM
There's nothing inappropriate about her words. I just think there's no telling what will happen in three months, and she'll look rather foolish if all this talk sets her up as her favorite and she doesn't do well at nationals or worlds (if she qualifies). Which, actually, happens quite often (favorites not medalling).

I like Ashley and adore all her programs this year; I do worry about tempting fate; that's all. :)

victoriaheidi
11-22-2012, 04:19 AM
We're within 100 posts of thread #7! I think we should call it swagner or something. Nothing about gold/Gold! :p