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View Full Version : Peaked too soon. Programs at their best that should have won OG



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gingercrush
05-10-2012, 01:49 PM
God I love Harding's Loops. I'm sure she could have done Triple Loop-Triple Loop. I actually wonder whether Harding would have benefited from Figures still being included.

l'etoile
05-10-2012, 02:05 PM
Definitely Debbie in '88 and Michelle Kwan in both olympic years. With her ability, two OG didn't look implausible at all.

kwanatic
05-10-2012, 02:32 PM
Michelle's Nagano performance would have won in any other year. No she wasn't as free as she was at nationals but her performance was clean and well-presented. Tara just ended up with the luck of the draw (skating order) and was able to have a strong performance as well.

I maintain my belief that had the skating order been reversed, Michelle would have won b/c instead of all of the 5.9s in presentation she would have had several 6.0s in there as well. But b/c she was skating early in the group, they had to leave room. Tara would have beat her on the technical mark (as she should have) but Michelle's presentation score would have been higher and she'd have won...But, the past is the past. I'm over the bitterness of it but I still believe the difference b/w gold and silver came down to the skating order that year.

essence_of_soy
05-10-2012, 03:11 PM
God I love Harding's Loops. I'm sure she could have done Triple Loop-Triple Loop. I actually wonder whether Harding would have benefited from Figures still being included.

There are several theories that support this.

Harding had a solid international reputation and if she had been chosen over Yamaguchi in 1989 to go to Worlds, chances are she would have won the event.

Her figures were stronger than Ito, and she was landing a triple lutz combo in the short from 1988 onwards.

Also, had she not been sick at US Nationals in 1990 and made the team, again, Harding could have won the world title with a strong all round skate.

Regarding her triple loop, apparently she could land a quadruple loop in practice.

PashaFan
05-10-2012, 04:12 PM
Even though she never got close to an Olympic Gold medal or podium, Sussana Poykio's Munich program was so beautiful. It's a pity she could not have taken it further.
She really did skate to a difficult subject with true emotion.
If only she had been a faster & more consistent skater :(

UGG
05-10-2012, 04:41 PM
Agree with MK for 2002. Her Free Skate at 2002 nationals would have been enough for at least 2nd place.

In 1998-I believe MK's Nationals free skate was better than Tara's Olympic free skate, but with her skating first, not sure how it would have been marked? Do you think she would have gotten 6.0's that early? Or would Tara have just been marked lower on the 2nd mark?

judgejudy27
05-10-2012, 07:03 PM
Agree with MK for 2002. Her Free Skate at 2002 nationals would have been enough for at least 2nd place.

In 1998-I believe MK's Nationals free skate was better than Tara's Olympic free skate, but with her skating first, not sure how it would have been marked? Do you think she would have gotten 6.0's that early? Or would Tara have just been marked lower on the 2nd mark?

Regarding the latter I think she would have just received more 5.8s for technical merit in that case. It is quite possible/probable no matter how well she skated no judge would go higher than 5.8, 5.9 without a triple-triple and skating first. Tara only received 5.9, 5.9 from 4 judges so that might not have been enough, and yes some of the judges who gave her 5.9, 5.9 may have just come down to 5.9, 5.8. The marks are merely a tool to place skaters where they think thy deserve after all.

Vash01
05-12-2012, 06:50 AM
Midori Ito's 1991 Trophy Lalique performance

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjxDB62eqzM

olympic
05-14-2012, 06:12 PM
I love Boitano, but I have a feeling that Orser's '88 LP performed at its best (minus the 3f step-out) would've won Olympic Gold. ETA - I now see that this thread is for programs that peaked too soon. Not sure if BO skated a better version of his LP earlier in the season ... )

Kwan in '98 and '02. Her national LP's both seasons would've clinched it and made her a double Oly Gold Medalist. It would be interesting to compare '02 Kwan Nats LP w/ Slutskaya's '01 GWG LP (I think that was Slute's best attempt at Tosca?)

Not sure if this would qualify, but if Yamaguchi's '92 Nats LP vs. Tonya Harding's '91 SA LP vs. Midori Ito's '91 TL / '92 Oly performance (can't remember which one was better) were to have been skated at the same time, who would've won.

essence_of_soy
05-14-2012, 08:37 PM
I love Boitano, but I have a feeling that Orser's '88 LP performed at its best (minus the 3f step-out) would've won Olympic Gold. ETA - I now see that this thread is for programs that peaked too soon. Not sure if BO skated a better version of his LP earlier in the season ... )

Not sure if this would qualify, but if Yamaguchi's '92 Nats LP vs. Tonya Harding's '91 SA LP vs. Midori Ito's '91 TL / '92 Oly performance (can't remember which one was better) were to have been skated at the same time, who would've won.

In Orser's case, his best performance of The Bolt was at the 1988 World Championships in Budapest. I believe he earned several 6.0s for artistic impression as well, and won the free skate ahead of Boitano.

Regarding Harding vs Yamaguchi vs Ito, each skater had 7 triples planned. Yamaguchi's program was the most choreographically detailed, but Harding's was probably the most exciting. Ito changed the music from the second half of her program prior to Albertville.

It would have been a fantastic event if all three skaters had performed at their best. But the competition was skated pretty poorly, and Yamaguchi won the short program in France, while Ito and Harding missed their combinations.

Anyway, I believe their jump content was:

Harding at SA
triple axel
triple lutz
triple toe / double toe (planned triple toe)
triple loop
triple flip
triple salchow/double toe
axel (planned double)

Yamaguchi at US
triple lutz / triple toe (turn between both jumps)
double axel
triple flip
triple toe
triple loop
triple salchow
triple lutz
double axel

Midori Ito at TL
triple lutz / triple toe
triple axel / double toe
double flip (planned triple)
triple flip (planned triple lutz)
single loop (planned triple)
triple loop (unplanned)

judgejudy27
05-14-2012, 10:07 PM
I think Harding would have won if they had their best performances of the season since she was the only one who had done a clean LP that season.

At U.S Nationals Kristi still took a big step between her triple lutz-triple toe combination, which would be a big deal as that was a huge combination for her technically without a triple axel. It is possible the judges even viewed her Albertville performance stronger technically than they would have her U.S Nationals since even with the mistakes she did that combnation perfectly, and combined with the late 2nd triple lutz seemed to give her very high technical value.

Ito had some mistakes in her Lalique performance too, a big popped single loop and another one somewhere, even though it was still excellent.

Harding at Skate America was flawless in the LP so probably would have won as long as she was top 3 in the short.

If they all skated cleanly it is less certain though.

judgejudy27
05-14-2012, 10:12 PM
Although Orser's best performance was at the 88 Worlds, I think even his 87 Skate Canada performance might well have won in Calgary. He came awfully close to winning considering all the small mistakes he made and the lesser technical content of his program that night.

olympic
05-15-2012, 06:19 PM
....If they all skated cleanly it is less certain though.

OT, but I think all cleanly in all phases, it would've been 1. Ito, 2. Harding, 3. Yamaguchi

Ito had a touch more going for her on the 2d mark than Harding, so even if Harding went jump-for-jump with Ito (which was still possible but a stretch, because Ito even w/o 2 3x's in her performance was opening with a 3z-3t and 3x-2t), Ito would've still won IMO.

Outside the US, I think a clean Harding w/ a 3x and a planned 3-3 would probably have been able to come out ahead of Yamaguchi. World judges scored Harding better than National judges. Still, a clean Yamaguchi might've garnered tie-breaker points on the 2d mark cuz she was considered an artist. Who knows.


Regarding the latter I think she would have just received more 5.8s for technical merit in that case. It is quite possible/probable no matter how well she skated no judge would go higher than 5.8, 5.9 without a triple-triple and skating first. Tara only received 5.9, 5.9 from 4 judges so that might not have been enough, and yes some of the judges who gave her 5.9, 5.9 may have just come down to 5.9, 5.8. The marks are merely a tool to place skaters where they think thy deserve after all.

Good Analysis. If MK had not had toe problems during the season, she may have done a 3t-3t instead of 2 3loops. But, a 3loop is considered a tougher jump. Wouldn't it just balance out?

Vash01
05-15-2012, 08:34 PM
Berezhnaya-Sikharulidze's SP and LP at the 1998 GPF would have won them the OGM in 1998- particularly the LP. It was gorgeous.

Vash01
05-15-2012, 08:36 PM
Michelle's Nagano performance would have won in any other year. No she wasn't as free as she was at nationals but her performance was clean and well-presented. Tara just ended up with the luck of the draw (skating order) and was able to have a strong performance as well.

I maintain my belief that had the skating order been reversed, Michelle would have won b/c instead of all of the 5.9s in presentation she would have had several 6.0s in there as well. But b/c she was skating early in the group, they had to leave room. Tara would have beat her on the technical mark (as she should have) but Michelle's presentation score would have been higher and she'd have won...But, the past is the past. I'm over the bitterness of it but I still believe the difference b/w gold and silver came down to the skating order that year.

ITA. I have said the same thing ever since that happened.