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Yazmeen
04-13-2012, 03:39 PM
We can argue the medals and their "meaning" and the importance of the competition, and who placed higher and whose "fault" it was that we didn't get the three spots, but the basic point was that none of these ladies have earned us three spots, not just Alissa.

And again, my main point: we just don't have a truly consistent US lady who we can count on to reach the World/Olympic/International podium and get those coveted spots like we could with Kwan and Cohen. Period. You knew when Michelle and Sasha went there was more likely a chance of a medal than no medal. You can argue Ashley's/Caroline's comeback, Gracie Gold's season, etc. till the cows come home, but we just don't have a consistent lady who is even highly likely to repeat as National champion (or become a new Nat'l champion) right now based upon their OVERALL results/history. And it's hard to say if we have one coming up. I bring this up because of the "OMG, Alissa is coming back, we're DOOMED!!!!" postings. Good grief, we can't say Alissa back in the mix will doom three spots again any more than we can say Ashley Wagner is a lock to skate well enough to go back to Worlds next year. Alissa coming back means Alissa will skate again. And we'll see what happens when it happens.

And for the record, I don't think the US or any other country "deserves" any number of Worlds' spots. And we didn't LOSE a spot. Our skaters simply didn't earn it. There's a difference there. (And please spare us the "blame game" of whose "fault" it was each year that we didn't get that spot, especially when we can't say for sure that another skater in the current crop had the consistency to "win it back" if they had gone instead of that inconsistent headcase, ad nauseum).

And before you think I'm an Alissa apologist, for the record, I think USFS should have pulled her after Challenge Cup and sent Zhang just based on the lack of fitness Alissa was demonstrating at the time. But they didn't have a procedure for doing so and sending the skater who demonstrated the best potential fitness/skating for the competition at that time (meaning passing over Zawadksi).

Iceman
04-13-2012, 06:02 PM
well, USFSA, would do well to come up with some alternative rules for choosing its world team
for the year before Sochi.

kwanfan1818
04-13-2012, 06:17 PM
The only rule changes USFS might consider are mandatory monitoring for US #2 and 3 or, in a non-Olympic year, using 4C's as a skate-off, which doesn't necessarily intersect their new spread-the-wealth strategy for 4C's.

They already have the rules in place to take prior performance into consideration, but, with one exception, Meissner over Hacker,to render the rules meaningless by making current US Nats standings 99.9999% of the selection weighting.

PDilemma
04-13-2012, 06:18 PM
well, USFSA, would do well to come up with some alternative rules for choosing its world team
for the year before Sochi.

If they do, and skip all over the Nats results to choose a World Team, then said team does not do well in one or more disciplines, then people will be here ranting about how they should not have changed the selection criteria.

No one will be happy with team selection until the U.S. is bringing medals home in something more than dance again. And given the skaters competing, I don't know that it will happen at all. I'm not sure it matters who is on the world team. The fact is no one is consistently that good. Especially in ladies. Changing the selection criteria is not going to change that.

RD
04-13-2012, 06:37 PM
No selection method is perfect, or is going to please everybody.

But IMHO it's clear that the current one just isn't that efficient any more...not since the NJS system took effect, anyway.

ETA:


Good grief, we can't say Alissa back in the mix will doom three spots again any more than we can say Ashley Wagner is a lock to skate well enough to go back to Worlds next year.

This is true- but Czisny is developing a very unfavorable track record at Worlds that would possibly even validate sending someone with NO Worlds experience (but that has done well elsewhere) over her. 15th, 11th, 5th, 22nd. A skater of her caliber really should be doing MUCH better than that. But she has lacked the toughness- and there's no indication that she will suddenly develop it.

MacMadame
04-13-2012, 07:16 PM
well, USFSA, would do well to come up with some alternative rules for choosing its world team
for the year before Sochi.

I don't think the problem is the rules. I think the problem is we don't have enough strong, consistent skaters to send.

jlai
04-14-2012, 12:11 AM
If they do, and skip all over the Nats results to choose a World Team, then said team does not do well in one or more disciplines, then people will be here ranting about how they should not have changed the selection criteria.

No one will be happy with team selection until the U.S. is bringing medals home in something more than dance again. And given the skaters competing, I don't know that it will happen at all. I'm not sure it matters who is on the world team. The fact is no one is consistently that good. Especially in ladies. Changing the selection criteria is not going to change that.

I don't think USFSA will ever not consider nationals. Whether there should be a little leeway is another matter.

US doesn't have skaters like Kwan, but right now, no one does. The margin of error is smaller for the US team at worlds but Russia managed quite well with the ladies they sent two years in a row, even though they aren't arguably better than the US ladies. I think timing, luck, momentum and federation decisions and the little things matter when the margin of errors is small. But that's just my opinion

I'll be happy with skaters doing fairly well within their abilities, spots or no spots, podium or no podium. In fact, I suspect the majority of fans will be fairly contented with that too (though the argument turning up instead might be "shouldn't this US lady medal after skating like that?" :D ) . If skating the best within one's abilities isn't important, all the other federations with no podium hopes will not even care whom they send.

To me, worlds is a big stage where young girls get a chance to realize their potential. And they don't get that many chances at this. So I think world selection does matter because it impacts these young girls greatly (and that may in turn affect their college decisions...).

haribobo
04-14-2012, 02:59 AM
No selection method is perfect, or is going to please everybody.

But IMHO it's clear that the current one just isn't that efficient any more...not since the NJS system took effect, anyway.

This is true- but Czisny is developing a very unfavorable track record at Worlds that would possibly even validate sending someone with NO Worlds experience (but that has done well elsewhere) over her. 15th, 11th, 5th, 22nd. A skater of her caliber really should be doing MUCH better than that. But she has lacked the toughness- and there's no indication that she will suddenly develop it.

:respec:

This represents exactly where I'm at on this thing also. Alissa is just the perfect storm of a skater. Best spins in the whole world that she never messes up on, and wonky jump technique that she somehow managed to get under control for a whole season and various other times throughout her career, and a graceful style and reputation that gets the marks internationally. I think the general feeling at Nationals was- its insane to leave a strong World medal contendor (and current National champ, GP medalist, and 5th place Worlds 2011 finisher) off your team just for having an off day on her lutz, in comparison to Zhang (12th place at Nationals 2011, 6th place SA, midpack GP finishes the year before), Zawadzki (bombed FS and midpack GP finishes 2 years running), and Gao (5th at CoC and a dismal 10th at CoR). If any of these 3 had come into Nationals with a stronger season behind them, I could see more potential for dumping Alissa, but even then it would've been close. The fact is, 2012 Worlds Alissa never would've medaled at US Nationals, and 2012 US Nationals Alissa probably would've hit top 10 at Worlds.

The political climate post-Worlds is such that USFS is going to be looking to see which other ladies can do well enough to challenge Alissa at Nationals. She's not as easily dumped as Rachael, because when she lands those jumps, Alissa is really first rate with the right programs. The PCS are dispensed in such a way that a total newcomer such as a 2011-12 Angela Wang or Leah Keiser would really never be able to defeat an Alissa at Nationals barring a total disaster skate. But, I'm sure the judges at 2013 Nats will be looking to keep any ladies who have medaled or even generally done well on GP (and even JGP) in PCS range of Alissa. Whether instructed to or not, I think judges do have the idea in their heads now that Alissa is not to be fully trusted, but she'll still end up on the podium if she skates well, otherwise the judges aren't doing their jobs properly...

What is also funny, is that based on how this season played out, I'd be willing to bet that if Zhang and Czisny were to essentially repeat their jumping performances from 2012 Nats during 2013 Nats, assuming their GP seasons next year go about the same- Zhang would suddenly get a bunch more benefit-of-the-doubt PCS scores that would put her above Alissa.

RD
04-14-2012, 04:14 AM
...and that is where discretion in world team selection could come in handy/come into play. In the event that she is 2nd, for example, invoke past competitive history, skip over her and send #3 instead.

In retrospect, I wonder if she should have WD from GPF when she got injured. At least she had that excuse, but after Worlds where she was arguably worse? "I don't know what happened." !!!

Susan M
04-14-2012, 05:19 AM
I don't think USFSA will ever not consider nationals. Whether there should be a little leeway is another matter.
The USFS does have leeway. I couldn't find the rule for Worlds, but when selecting the Olympic team, the selectors were supposed to consider results from
- Current Nationals
- Most recent GP Finals
- Prior year World Championships
- Prior year 4 Continents
- Prior year World Junior Championships
- Most recent JGP Finals

So, if they follow the same rule when selecting the World team, they could have looked at Czisny's GPF splatfest and held that against her. Really, though, it's not like our other skaters looked any better.

This multi-criteria approach exists only in theory. It is there so that, in Olympic years, Nationals is not officially the "Olympic Trials", as that would trigger a whole mess over TV money. As Kwanfan pointed out, in fact the selectors rely on Nationals results to select the team nearly all the time. In Olympic years, they do sometimes deviate from Nationals results in naming the World team, especially when the last Olympic team member has been around a while and the next candidate is an up and comer. (Example: Paul Wylie & Mark Mitchell in 1992. Ok, that's a long time to look back to find an example. There have probably been more recent examples, but I remembered that one off the top of my head. Was Meissner named to the 2006 World team from the start?)

RD
04-14-2012, 07:14 AM
I think Czisny looked ok after Nationals. Perhaps she should have skated-off with either Zawadzki or Zhang at 4CC for the WT spot, and that may or may not have avoided the Challenge Cup mess that ensued.

demetriosj
04-14-2012, 02:00 PM
:respec:


The PCS are dispensed in such a way that a total newcomer such as a 2011-12 Angela Wang or Leah Keiser would really never be able to defeat an Alissa at Nationals barring a total disaster skate. .

This is a big problem with COP, but I guess it serves the same purpose as the artistic scores under 6.0-

which is to enable the judges to hold up whoever the heck they darn well please.....

Jammers
04-14-2012, 03:26 PM
The problem with US Ladies at Worlds and internationally is that they haven't been taught to be strong jumpers. The US has to get away from the pwetty princess syndrome and start teaching these girls to land their jumps as well as all the other basic skills. I mean c'mon if Leonova and Makarova can get 3 spots for the Russians the last two years there is no excuse for the US. Makarova is average at best and Leonova isn't exactly Slutskya.

Vagabond
04-14-2012, 03:46 PM
But the poster is right- there IS a lot of support for Czisny within the community, much more than there was for Flatt last year. People rightfully put the heat on Rachel after what she did, but many of these same people are giving Czisny a pass/complaining about negative comments on her? Go figure. Anything to defend their favorites :lol:

Is it really so hard for you to figure out?


as transcribed from audio recordings by U.S. Figure Skating:

Saturday's long program: ``I was in a lot of pain. I have a stress fracture in my tibia. That was not too much fun. I tried to do the best I could at this point with how I was feeling. Unfortunately, it wasnít very good and certainly wasnít close to my best. I tried to push through it. I didnít find out what it was until last Friday so there wasnít really much time to do much. I came here and tried to do what I could. . .Iíll take a month off to let this thing heal.''

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/sports_globetrotting/2011/05/coach-why-flatt-skated-at-worlds.html

In 2011, Flatt competed knowing that she had a tibia fracture and admitted that she "didn't find out what it was" until the Friday before Worlds, implying that she knew she had some sort of serious injury well before that. The sportsmanlike thing to do under the circumstances would have been to get the problem diagnosed sooner and withdrawn so that another skater could get the chance to compete. Even withdrawing on that Friday would have been better than competing with an injury about which she didn't tell the Federation.

There has been no indication that Czisny had an injury that affected her performance had Worlds. She reportedly struggled in most of her practice sessions in Nice, but struggling in practices during Worlds Week isn't a reason -- or an excuse, for that matter -- not to compete.

Iceman
04-14-2012, 05:14 PM
Alissa didn't regain her national title and was struggling at the Challenge Cup too and at Worlds. Something had gone awry and the USFSA should have consulted with her and her coach to find out exactly what was going on and if it could be remedied before worlds.