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View Full Version : How should USFS handle Worlds selections?



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skfan
04-01-2012, 04:19 AM
US nationals are known to have overgenerous callers who don't ding URs, flutzes, etc etc adequately, and judges who save the highest PCS for the last skaters.

On top of that, US saves the top short program skaters #1-3 as the last three skaters in the long program. That means a considerable advantage in skating order and PCS, more so than ISU competitions (in which short program winners can skate first in the last group of 6, like Leonova in Nice).

If I were an inconsistent skater, all I needed was pull off a good short that places top 3, and I would be getting decent PCS because I would be skating in the last 3 in the last flight. Even if I land only 3 triples and skate cautiously. So if I were incosnistent, I'd put considerable effort in training the short because that matters so much at US nationals.

If you notice, in the men's event at US nationals, the short program winner --who skates last for the last few years -- has always won the event. There's also some generous marking for Agnes Z, Flatt, and Czisny who skated last in 2012, 2011 and 2009 also.

On top of that, I also think US skating fans are sentimental, and sometimes we feel for the skaters who have been around so long, want them to succeed so badly, that when they do skate well, we (skating jduges are fans too) throw them huge marks. e.g. Zhang at this nationals. Wang should have beaten Zhang, Agnes, and even Czisny in the free skate if their faces were blanked out and we didn't know who's skating.



I think past competitions have some weight but only the one closest to worlds should count (like GPF or 4CC). Czisny did well at her 2 GPs but that had no relation to how she skated at worlds, as results indicated. The downward trend started at GPF and went on from there.

Same for Vanessa Lam. She had good JGP but a combination of poor JGPF and so so nationals should have taken her out of the running for junior worlds. (And her poor showing at JW shows it).


i could live with angela wang beating all those skaters you mentioned in the LP. but i'd be lying if i didn't say i wouldn't be nervous if she ended up top 2, because... i don't recall her skating clean at regionals or sectionals... lower pressure events. and really she was so far out of it after the SP she had nothing to lose in the LP.

but since i'm an advocate of fair judging and no more test skates--just use nationals as the test skate, unless monitoring reveals some things are afoot, etc-- i will have to bite my nails and send her if she ends up top 2. even if odds are she'll get lowballed like dornbush and miner were last year. at least at our own nationals, be fair, even if the international judges are marking by reputation.

even if angela skates well and is NOT rewarded at worlds, it would start to build her international credibility. so not all is lost, even if she gets lowballed her first year in this hypothetical example.

mag
04-01-2012, 04:32 AM
Agree, I can understand holding up a skater to GET to nationals, but can never understand holding up a skater once they're there....

So, let me get this right, you think it is okay for judges to mark something other than what is put on the ice at Regionals or Sections, but once people get to Nationals they should stop and mark only what they see. Hmmm, interesting philosophy - it is okay to be dishonest some of the time, just not all of the time, or at times when you disagree. Okay, I get it.

For the record, that kind of judging plan is likely to make things worse, not better. It would be better for judges to judge, to the best of their ability, exactly what is put on the ice at all times. I also think a random short and long program draw would go a long way to helping judges use the PCS categories correctly. (Of course, that would really annoy the television stations!)

manhn
04-01-2012, 05:04 AM
It seems like every American lady since 2006 has been written off to die at some point in their career. Is there one who has missed that curse? The US has someone placed 4th in the World behind three ladies who may not ever land on the podium again (no disrespect to any of them, but it's true). It's not that bad.

It seems like every American man since 2002 has been written off to die at some point in their career. Even your reigning Olympic gold medalist! Your best current male skater happens to be a bit of a headcase. Unfortunately, it can happen. Look at Japan with Kozuka and Oda. Now, you may not have the depth of Japan (instead, you have an excellent dance team--it all evens out), but your depth is not so bad. Despite the three spots that Canada and France earned, the US is behind only Japan in terms of depth in the men's field.

Your dance program is extremely strong. And your pairs is not so shabby.

bek
04-01-2012, 05:21 AM
It seems like every American lady since 2006 has been written off to die at some point in their career. Is there one who has missed that curse? The US has someone placed 4th in the World behind three ladies who may not ever land on the podium again (no disrespect to any of them, but it's true). It's not that bad.

It seems like every American man since 2002 has been written off to die at some point in their career. Even your reigning Olympic gold medalist! Your best current male skater happens to be a bit of a headcase. Unfortunately, it can happen. Look at Japan with Kozuka and Oda. Now, you may not have the depth of Japan (instead, you have an excellent dance team--it all evens out), but your depth is not so bad. Despite the three spots that Canada and France earned, the US is behind only Japan in terms of depth in the men's field.

Your dance program is extremely strong. And your pairs is not so shabby.

Yes I think its very likely the three world medalists will not be on the world podium, but I don't see anything that makes me think Wagner is more likely than the other three to podium at the coming Worlds or Olympics. And for me the problem with the US men is while we have fairly good male skaters, we don't really have any great jumpers. Well the one who looked like he could a great jumper (Dornbush) seems to be coming apart at the seams)

I mean does Jason Brown really compare to a Hanyu? I don't think soo. Jason has nice presentation skills but his jumps are no where near the quality of Hanyu's and Hanyu has beautiful presentation of his own.

And both French men finished ahead of our two, which is not a good sign for us.

mag
04-01-2012, 05:33 AM
...And both French men finished ahead of our two, which is not a good sign for us.

But you at at least ONE lady who seems to want to win. Some of us, just north of you, would love to have that. Furthermore, there is a fairly steep drop off in level up here right after Patrick. If you read the papers up here, you'd could be led to believe that the future of men's skating in Canada will rest with a 13 year old boy coached by Joanne McLeod :yikes:

(30 years ago who would have thought that today North America's deepest field would be ice dance?)

pinky166
04-01-2012, 06:03 AM
Nationals and international results, and then a local skate off IF THERE IS REASON TO HAVE ONE. This season, there for sure was.

Ladies:

1.) Ashley was a given, then her 4CC win solidified she was the best skater in the US right now. Leave her out of the speculation. She's going.

2.) Caroline was 4th at Nats, but arguably could have placed 2nd or 3rd. She proves her medal there was not a fluke by skating wonderfully at 4CC and winning bronze.

3.) Agnes was 3rd at Nats and named 1st alternate for Worlds, but her FS was a mess and she arguably should have been 4th. Then at 4CC, she again delivers a messy FS and finishes (way) behind Zhang.

5.) Gracie Gold competed as a junior all season, but wins Nationals in a dominating fashion and goes on to win silver at JW with solid marks in a very deep field. Her TES in particular, is very strong, and at 2 high pressure events in a row, she showed she could deliver. She is not on the alternates list, but had a senior FS choreographed, and her technical abilities exceed all the US senior ladies and should not go unnoticed.

4.) Alissa wins silver at Nats and gets the 2nd Worlds spot, but it was controversial, IMO she was a bit held up, and it was a toss up over who placed 2nd, 3rd, and 4th there. Then she bombed Challenge Cup.

In this situation, the 2nd World entrant doesn't look to be in a good place to compete, the 2nd alternate clearly outshone the 1st alternate at 4CC, a big international event, and the Junior National champ comes out and kicks butt at JW, posting impressive scores and showing incredible technical content. I'd say, hold a test skate with Alissa, Agnes, Caroline, and Gracie IF SHE WANTS TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SENIOR WORLDS, and whoever skates the best there joins Ashley at Worlds.

For the men, there was also reason to hold a test skate.

1.) Jeremy was incredible at Nationals, but then not so great at Challenge Cup. His PCS hold him up though, and he has the highest scoring potential, so he should probably still be sent.

2.) Adam finishes 2nd at Nationals and earns the 2nd World team birth. Then he goes to 4CC and his marks are nowhere near what he got at Nationals, despite posting a SB.

3.) Ross is 3rd at Nationals and just misses out on the World team. His fall season was solid though, winning a bronze at NHK, and holding it together at Nationals showed his competitive nature. Then at 4CC he holds off Adam for a medal, and his marks are closer to what he got at Nationals than Adam's. He earns a SB and further solidifies he is reliable and a good competitor.

4.) Joshua was 16th at Nationals after having a meltdown in the SP then getting hosed for PCS in the FS due to skating in an early group. Up to that point, he had been having quite a good season, posting impressive numbers on the JGP, particularly in the SP. All his SPs before Nationals had been clean and scored very well. His 3a is solid with good technique and flowout and his 4t attempt at Nationals was pretty close. Then he goes to JW and posts a score that edges Rippon on the SB list, wins the silver medal, and misses out on the title, won by a phenom, by less than half a point. He is just 17 and has real promise for the future, and the international judges clearly like his skating, plus you can assume his scores would be even higher at a senior event.

In this situation, I'd have Jeremy do a monitoring session: if he skates well, then his spot is secured, but if he tanks, he goes to a test skate with Adam, Ross, and Joshua. If Jeremy is good at monitoring, whoever skates best at the test skate joins him at Worlds, if he has to go to the test skate, the top 2 at the test skate go to Worlds.

In some situations, I think going by Nationals results is fine, but in this case, there were some pretty unexpected results in post national international competitions that should have got the attention of the USFS.

jjane45
04-01-2012, 06:09 AM
Nationals + international results. Just look at Japan. They've manged three tickets in both singles disciplines for several years in a row.

It's only logical.

Doesn't Japan announce worlds team after nationals, like in December?
Do they have monitoring of any sorts?

l'etoile
04-01-2012, 08:43 AM
Doesn't Japan announce worlds team after nationals, like in December?
Do they have monitoring of any sorts?

There are three falls in determining who's going to 4cc or Worlds in Japan.

1. Nationals
2. International results before Nationals
3. Japanese Federation's own consideration

And I think at Nationals, like any other countries, JSF would have more keen observation on skaters to make sure whether it's reasonable enough who's to where. They usually announce 4cc and World team members week or so after the Nationals. I'd say that week is a consideration/discussion period for them.

Libertango
04-01-2012, 11:01 AM
There's one thing that should not be done : test skates!