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johndockley92
03-29-2012, 06:31 PM
Does anybody else think it's possible that with two inspired programs, Alissa and Ashley can move up to 8th and 5th? I'd love to see them move up and do well. Hopefully this can happen.. Go US ladies!! :encore:

Skittl1321
03-29-2012, 06:34 PM
No, unfortunately, I don't think it is possible.

I think both can move up in the standings, but I don't think a perfect program by Alissa would be able to move up that high, even with a melt down by other skaters.

kwanatic
03-29-2012, 06:41 PM
Ashley, yes...Alissa, I'm a bit doubtful.

In a perfect world, Alissa would enter the LP and say "I have nothing left to lose; I'll go balls-to-the-wall!" but after the way she completely FOLDED in the SP today, I don't know how strong her resolve is going to be. She's been fragile all year long and it's been getting progressively worse culminating in what we saw today. All we can pray for now is that she manages to get into the top 10...but with the way she's been skating even that might be a stretch.

Ashley, OTOH, isn't that far out of medal contention and she's known for being a very strong LP skater. Depending on how others skate, there is a possibility that she could sneak into 4th or even 3rd place. I don't believe Alena will hold up for a medal in the LP and I'm doubtful about Kanako too. I think Carolina and Akiko will do well and if Mao plays it safe, she will do well too. Depending on how the top skaters perform, Ashley has a shot and is likely to leapfrog in the standings. Her SP is good but her LP is great and if she can pull a 4CC-like performance off she will score in the 120-125+ range and (depending on how others do) that could be enough to get her to the podium.

But the stars would have to align completely to get that third spot. Alissa would have to make it to 10th place (at the very least) and Ashley could be no lower than 3rd, which puts the pressure on Ashley to be perfect b/c for every placement Ashley is down, that means Alissa has to move up...and I don't see her moving that far up unless she can perform perfectly...also others would need to make mistakes.

It's just not a good situation at all. Maybe next year...then we can send Gracie Gold and she will single-handedly win us all three spots. As a matter of fact she'll be so good the ISU will award the US 4 spots!

smarts1
03-29-2012, 07:05 PM
Alena and Kanako will definitely tank. Kanako hasn't had a good LP all season and Alena never deals well with the pressure of being in medal contention. Ksenia will suck in the LP as she has all season long, and Elene shouldn't be a problem for Ashley to overtake. So Ashley probably will end up in 4th or so (and higher if Mao, Carolina, and Akiko make mistakes) if Ashley skates the LP like she has all season.

That means Alissa would have to pull up to at least 9th to get our three spots back... It's possible. Only 2 points separate her from 12th place, and about 6.5 points separate her from Kexin Zhang in 9th place after the SP, so it's possible if Alissa can skate like she did a year ago at US Nationals or even last year at Worlds... We'll have to see.

Tesla
03-29-2012, 07:19 PM
I think it's possible. Highly improbable and not very likely, but possible. Stranger things have happened, though I can't think of any at the moment. :o

kwanatic
03-29-2012, 07:21 PM
I think it's possible. Highly improbable and not very likely, but possible. Stranger things have happened, though I can't think of any at the moment. :o

Alena won the SP.

smarts1
03-29-2012, 07:30 PM
^ And she got better PCS and Akiko and Mao. Even if they faltered, they skate so much better than Alena's gross skating!

query5
03-29-2012, 08:23 PM
no-- i would love for that to happen but i don't think so.

both ladies would have to have to skate lights out in long program and hope for some screw up.
alissa can move up to top 10 easily with a decent skate.because of who is in front of alissa

ashley maybe up to 5th with a decent skate however she might move up to 7th possibly 6th without help.
but to 5th and 8th--need help.
with mao, kanako, caroline kostner, akiko, alena, ksenia, they have to have some screw ups to happen.
ashley only 3 points away
however alissa is 8-10 points away.
hard to do for alissa especailly after her skating season so far, and her being front end skater.

kwanatic
03-29-2012, 08:28 PM
I think Ashley's task is a bit easier than what Alissa will have to accomplish. As much as I love Kanako, I don't think she's going to maintain her position. Alena and Ksenia will probably drop off as well. With a solid skate Ashley can move up to 5th pretty easily. Alena is typically a 3rd-5th place finisher...but it's rare that she's competing under the pressure of leading an event, so who knows how she'll hold up.

It's a definite possibility for Ashley to move up...given Ashley's pattern of solid LPs I'd say it's very likely that she'll move up a few spots. Then she'll have to contend with the top names and that's where it will get tougher. If she can give a solid performance like she did at 4CC, I think she'll have a good shot at 4th or better.

RD
03-29-2012, 08:33 PM
Nope.

Wagner- she is generally known as a freeskater. I was a bit worried about the pressure she would have been under had she done better in the SP, so hopefully being a little lower in the standings relaxes her and inspires her to just go out and skate like she has something to prove. That said, it's not a given by any means that she will go clean or even have a strong skate.

That said, a 4CC-level skate could pull her up to 4th, and possibly even 3rd if Leonova or Asada slips up.

Czisny- forget it, man. She obviously hasn't shaken off whatever's been bothering her at Challenge Cup. Thing is, she looked fine in warmup so I don't think it's anything major like injury (although I guess you never know)...it's probably just nerves. She choked again, and choked BIG. After Wagner's slip-up, we needed Czisny to make a statement and she laid an egg instead. ARGH!

smarts1
03-30-2012, 01:20 AM
Either way, even if most of the skaters in the top 10 attempted triple-triples, this was a pretty subpar worlds SP. Almost everyone below the top 2 made at least one jump error.

museksk8r
03-30-2012, 02:29 AM
I think it's possible. Highly improbable and not very likely, but possible. Stranger things have happened, though I can't think of any at the moment. :o

Miki Ando beat Yu-Na Kim to the 2011 World title.

Yu-Na Kim placing 7th in the 2010 Worlds SP.

The 2006 Olympics original dance event where seemingly every couple suffered one freak fall after another.

The Russians' numerous mistakes in this year's Worlds pairs SP.

Patrick Chan winning a GP event with 4 major falls over Oda and Rippon who had much cleaner execution relatively speaking.

Kimmie Meissner handily and easily beating Sasha Cohen to the 2006 World title.

Emanuel Sandhu, king of inconsistency, upsetting Evgeni Plushenko, king of consistency, to win the 2003-2004 season GPF title.

Fusar-Poli/Margaglio beating Anissina/Peizerat to the 2001 World title.

Alexei Urmanov beating Viktor Petrenko, Kurt Browning, and Brian Boitano, who all imploded in the SP (what are the chances?), to win the 1994 Olympics.

Chen Lu failing to qualify for the 1997 Worlds LP after winning gold in 1995 and silver in 1996.

Nobunari Oda, the great jumper, failing to qualify for the 2010 Worlds LP after singling every jump attempt in the SP.

Alena Leonova beating Carolina Kostner and Mao Asada to win this year's Worlds SP.

Sarah Hughes repeating her Skate Canada ways at the 2002 Olympics, beating both Irina Slutskaya and Michelle Kwan to take gold.

Strange things happening are synonymous with this slippery sport.

smarts1
03-30-2012, 02:55 AM
Btw who is that new guy commentator on Universal Sports? He knows absolutely nothing! Where has Terri gone?

essence_of_soy
03-30-2012, 03:30 AM
Either way, even if most of the skaters in the top 10 attempted triple-triples, this was a pretty subpar worlds SP. Almost everyone below the top 2 made at least one jump error.

In a way Czisny is pretty lucky this happened. Otherwise with her 3 jumping errors, she may not have made the free program cut at all.

berthesghost
03-30-2012, 03:50 AM
When was the last time a worlds lp final warm up group was us lady free? 1994? 2008? Looks like another 2 lady team again next year.