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taf2002
03-20-2012, 01:06 PM
Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68


Under current rules, those jumps (a sequence, not a combo) would not have received all those points. I'm not sure about the 3t but the 3s was horribly UR.

fsfan22
03-20-2012, 01:25 PM
Lipinski did a 3 flip and kwan did a 3 toe solo jump in the short- We are all forgetting the horrid edge call on Lipinski's lutz edge and she had 3 between both programs.


Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....

Michelle's Lutz was definitely a 'flutz' too ... although not as obvious as Tara's. Louis is also right in that Michelle's Flip was also a 'lip'. I think she corrected the Flip after time, but it was definitely a 'lip' at the 98 Olympics.

gkelly
03-20-2012, 02:13 PM
Under current rules, those jumps (a sequence, not a combo) would not have received all those points.

Under 2012 rules it's a three-jump combo: 3T+1Lo+3S
Are you still thinking 2004-2010 rules?


I'm not sure about the 3t but the 3s was horribly UR.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pKT4e9sjYI&t=4m01s

I'd prefer a clearer video with slow motion, but it looks OK to me -- not 90 degrees UR, much less "horribly."

Dilng
03-20-2012, 05:43 PM
I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.

When I've done this in the past :) , I figure out their average value per jumping pass and multiply by 7. The tricky question is whether or not MK's 3 loop 2t series counts as a series or as two jumping passes. Obviously, she wouldn't have wasted a jumping pass on a 2t, and if she'd repeated a 3loop w/o doing it in combo/series, it would have been devalued by .2 anyway.

Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68

I don't think there was anything wrong with ladies scoring in '98. I think of it as the day the sport became, well, a sport. If those skates had been performed anytime prior, Kwan would have won, but not since.

I think they would have been even after the SP, because Tara's 1.50 advantage from doing a 3f would have been balanced by less GOE on jumps.

It's kind of pointless/unfair to compare spins and steps as skaters basically do what they have to under any system.

:respec: ITA!!!

alchemy void
03-20-2012, 06:30 PM
I think Lipinski clearly wins over Kwan.

What's fascinating for me, is just below that.

Butyrskaya had a great SP that would have put her right in the mix with MK and TL. However, the LP was a different story. 5 shaky triples, no combinations, two jumping passes of 2toe. Definitely 5th in the freeskate, for me, behind Slutskaya and Gusmeroli.

Slutskaya had a great COP friendly LP. 5 strong triples, superior spins, a triple triple after the halfway point, decent transitions into some of the jumps. Even with a double lutz in the SP I think she easily wins bronze as that SP was one of her best stylistically and filled with content: footwork into the loop, tano axel, spins, good transitons, etc.

Gusmeroli's LP was definitely 4th for me. Her popped lutz in the SP keeps her below Butyrskaya overall though. But that LP is an overlooked masterpiece: great theme, elements, choreography, and tons of trnasitions.

So I'd guess something like this in the SP
Kwan, Lipinski, Butyrskaya all relatively close

Gap

4. Bonaly
5. Slutskaya
6. Malinina (great TES, terrible PCS) or Lu (great PCS, terrible TES)
8. Gusmeroli

LP
1. Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Gusmeroli
5. Butyrskaya
6. Chen Lu or Malinina
8. Sokolova
9. Bonaly, Lavrrnchuk, etc

Overall
1.Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Butyrskaya
5. Gusmeroli
6. Malinina
7. Lu (i think her TES would be so low)
8. Sokolova
9. Bonaly

gkelly
03-20-2012, 07:12 PM
We could get a more accurate result for the short program than for the long, since the minimum requirements are pretty much the same now. No worries about maximum number of jumps or spins.

Count all the spiral sequences as transitions or as Choreo spiral sequence? Either way, it'll be more fair than trying to impose 2004-2010 spiral sequence level rules on 1998 spiral sequences.

I expect all the step sequences to be level 1 (so GOE will prevail), and

We could have an FSU judging game and find out how we would call and judge those short programs.

That still doesn't tell us how a panel of 1998-trained judges or 2012-trained judges would have judged it, or how the skaters would have designed their programs with their 1998 skills if they'd known they'd be judged by 2012 rules.

But if we trust the FSU volunteer tech panel, we can get a good sense of how the base marks would have worked out.

After that, will the GOEs and PCS come down to how many Kwan fans or Lipinski fans or Butyrskaya fans etc. volunteer to judge? Or can we get enough posters to try to judge impartially even if their favorite skater is involved?

Aussie Willy
03-20-2012, 09:11 PM
BTW, Bonaly would have done much better under the IJS because she actual "skated" proper quite well in the SP and the TES base value of a 3T/3T is higher in the COPs than 3Lz/2T although everybody in Nagano was claiming it was a lesser combination and the same can be said for her 3S preceded by steps vs 3T preceded steps ... Everybody was saying it was easier but the COPs says otherwise. I actual think this performance of Caravan was her undisputed best performance ever.
She still did not have quality skating skills and whilst that program might have been one of her best ones, she really didn't have any finese or great quality to her movement.

attyfan
03-20-2012, 09:24 PM
I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.
...


I'm not all that knowledgeable about the details of the CoP, so I am curious as to why you think this is so. Is there a particular requirement of the CoP that would prevent her spin from being recognized?

gkelly
03-20-2012, 09:51 PM
I'm not all that knowledgeable about the details of the CoP, so I am curious as to why you think this is so. Is there a particular requirement of the CoP that would prevent her spin from being recognized?

Yes. There's no reward under IJS just for doing a spin in the opposite direction from the skater's usual spin direction. The reward is to spin in both directions in the same spin. That's one feature toward a higher level for that spin -- if there's also one other feature, the spin would earn level 2; if there are three or four features in total it would earn level 3 or 4.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AVOsh2Y5FE&t=2m40s
Kwan does a layback counterclockwise, then a crossover before stepping into a camel clockwise, and then toe turns before stepping into a sit/upright combination counterclockwise. So it's three separate spins and they would all be level 1.

She would need to step directly from one spinning foot to the other to change direction, without too large a break in the spinning action or too large a distance between the spinning centers on each foot.
(More recently, Rachael Flatt often used the reverse direction feature under IJS and sometimes had the two parts of the spins called as separate spins because of a too-large gap.)

If Kwan had done reverse camel directly into the combination it could have been level 2 if the Y position as she executed it is considered a difficult variation. There were no other possible features in that sequence of spins under 2012 rules even if all three spins had been combined into a single combination.

Then there's the issue of 2012 rules allowing a maximum of three spins total and requiring that one of them have a flying entrance. By doing four, five, or six shorter spins separately, as was not unusual at the time, several of them would not count at all under today's rules.

The rules were different then. If Kwan had known then what the rules are now, she probably could have designed a spin to use the change of direction feature without significant need to develop new skills. The same, of course, is true of most of the other skaters in that event.

Sasha'sSpins
03-20-2012, 09:55 PM
:rolleyes: Please don't speak for me or others.

Nor me.


I speak for fairness.

Right.

and melodrama!

:lol:


Tara may have had faster spins, but Michelle spun in BOTH directions... Tara had one hard jumping pass but likely would have had edge calls. Michelle had one wonky landing but fully rotated. The quality and basics of MK's skating were so above and beyond Tara's, and that's where she should have won IMO. It's pretty obvious MK had bad luck because of the skate order. In IJS the SP would have counted towards MK's total score, but under 6.0 she basically went into the FS starting over and tied with Tara, so the SP has to be judged as well to use IJS. It's the same debate over and over, but we all know who the real winner is. Like everybody said at MK's induction ceremony, "She would have won in any Olympics BUT that one" -- Also Scott saying "These would have been 6.0s had she been the last skater" -- I think that tells everyone that something was wrong with the ladies' scoring in 98.

"WE all know'? Like fenway2 said, please don't speak for me either.

My opinions on the Lipinksi/Kwan Olympic showdown aren't formed by biased sentimental speeches spoken at induction ceremonies. Also, please do not assume that I would ever think everything Scott Hamilton has to say is Bible. The man all but said during the men's 2002 FS that Timothy Goebbel actually had a chance at beating Alexei Yagudin after the Russian's FS. :rofl: During Yagudin's skate he said Alexei was being 'conservative' although he qualified his comments after by admitting Yagudin had just competed 2 quads in his program. The man is a clown. :rolleyes:

Speaking for MYSELF, on the night I gave Tara the Olympic title over Michelle. She just seemed to sparkle out there while nailing her jumps including 2 difficult jump combos that Kwan did not have. Michelle seemed to skate not to lose while Tara seemed to skate just for the joy of it-and to win.

Back OT under COP likely Kwan would have the edge based on Lipinski's low jumps, URs and wrong edges on several of her jumps. Likely she would have outscored Lipinski PCS as well. On the other hand...


Not sure the PCS would have gone all Kwan's way either... Tara was on fire and I still think of that performance as one of the best in the history of women's figure skating. Tara would also have had some "late in the program" jump bonuses.

I clearly think of Tara as the better spinner, under COP it's all about getting the levels - not being elegant!

^^^^^
...THIS!

Sasha'sSpins
03-20-2012, 10:00 PM
She still did not have quality skating skills and whilst that program might have been one of her best ones, she really didn't have any finese or great quality to her movement.

Bonaly did not know how to skate between her jumps. She looked like she was skating on double runners. I saw no edge quality out there on her best nights. She telegraphed jumps from across the rink, stopped, braked, turned then launched herself into jumps landing in a jerky manner most of the time. She muscled every thing. She had some interesting artistic choices except for her attempt to copy Usova and Zhulin's Vivaldi "Four Season's" FD in one of her FS programs, even down to some of their movements which was laughable in the extreme. :rolleyes: That being said-I did like watching Bonaly in exhibition.

Vagabond
03-20-2012, 10:07 PM
CoP would not have been kind to Surya Bonaly at the 1998 Olympics.

She was short of rotation on one of her spins in the SP. In the FS, she underrotated her triple flip and triple loop, fell on her 3T-half loop-3S combo (and may have underrotated the salchow), two-footed a few of her jumps (requiring negative GOE), turned her 3T+2R into a 3T+1R, did an illegal element, and telegraphed several of her jumps (requiring a reduction in GOE). And she would not have done very well on PCS.

That said, neither Bonaly nor her rivals skated with CoP in mind. If CoP had been around when she first took up competitive figure skating, she might have been an entirely different skater. Given her physical strength, I think she would have at the very least been more consistent in fully rotating her jumps and would have been less prone to telegraphing. She probably would have worked more on improving her skating skills, as she did to some degree after she turned professional.

Aussie Willy
03-20-2012, 10:12 PM
That said, neither Bonaly nor her rivals skated with CoP in mind.
Of course they didn't. It didn't exist then. :)

Cheylana
03-20-2012, 11:45 PM
I'm not sure about the 3t but the 3s was horribly UR.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pKT4e9sjYI&t=4m01s

I'd prefer a clearer video with slow motion, but it looks OK to me -- not 90 degrees UR, much less "horribly."
Yeah, I don't see any "horrible" underrotation. :confused:

I'm not sure who would have prevailed, but I tend to think all of Tara and Michelle's jumps, including Tara's triple-triple combos and sequences, would have been ratified. I think the calling is less strict at the Olympics, probably to appease the once-every-four-years crowd. The callers were pretty generous at the last Olympics - so long as the skaters (especially the top-level skaters) landed the jumps on one foot and rotation was close, they mostly got the benefit of the doubt (thinking especially of Evan and Mao's 3As here). There were some exceptions (Rachael, Daisuke) but Michelle and Tara were the two most recent World Champions going into Nagano and the frontrunners for gold; I bet they would have been spared.

judgejudy27
03-21-2012, 07:16 PM
I think Lipinski clearly wins over Kwan.

What's fascinating for me, is just below that.

Butyrskaya had a great SP that would have put her right in the mix with MK and TL. However, the LP was a different story. 5 shaky triples, no combinations, two jumping passes of 2toe. Definitely 5th in the freeskate, for me, behind Slutskaya and Gusmeroli.

Slutskaya had a great COP friendly LP. 5 strong triples, superior spins, a triple triple after the halfway point, decent transitions into some of the jumps. Even with a double lutz in the SP I think she easily wins bronze as that SP was one of her best stylistically and filled with content: footwork into the loop, tano axel, spins, good transitons, etc.

Gusmeroli's LP was definitely 4th for me. Her popped lutz in the SP keeps her below Butyrskaya overall though. But that LP is an overlooked masterpiece: great theme, elements, choreography, and tons of trnasitions.

So I'd guess something like this in the SP
Kwan, Lipinski, Butyrskaya all relatively close

Gap

4. Bonaly
5. Slutskaya
6. Malinina (great TES, terrible PCS) or Lu (great PCS, terrible TES)
8. Gusmeroli

LP
1. Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Gusmeroli
5. Butyrskaya
6. Chen Lu or Malinina
8. Sokolova
9. Bonaly, Lavrrnchuk, etc

Overall
1.Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Butyrskaya
5. Gusmeroli
6. Malinina
7. Lu (i think her TES would be so low)
8. Sokolova
9. Bonaly

I think Maria would have definitely won the bronze over Irina under COP. Irina's SP with a double lutz-double toe would have had her way behind. She may not have even made the final flight under COP. Her LP was very good but PCS would have been pretty low, enough for a shaky Maria to hold her big short program edge.

Lu Chen would have never medaled under COP. Her TES would have been very low in both programs, even though everyone was thrilled under 6.0 to see her mostly stand up all the jumps after a couple of years of disaester, and actually attempt and land more triples than Maria or Irina in the LP which under 6.0 made her appear atleast competent technically, but under COP the poorly executed jumps, the URs which would have been downgraded, and the poor spins, would have killed her.