View Full Version : 1998 Olympics Ladies FS Under COP

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03-19-2012, 11:34 PM
IMO whatever TES advantage Lipinski had by having the 3-3s would be offset by definite negative GoE on her horrible flutzes and 0 GoE at most for her roller skater 2As in both programs. Lipinski may have spun faster, but Kwan had better positions on everything except the layback. Kwan also had the better spirals.

03-19-2012, 11:48 PM
Tara may have had faster spins, but Michelle spun in BOTH directions... Tara had one hard jumping pass but likely would have had edge calls. Michelle had one wonky landing but fully rotated. The quality and basics of MK's skating were so above and beyond Tara's, and that's where she should have won IMO. It's pretty obvious MK had bad luck because of the skate order. In IJS the SP would have counted towards MK's total score, but under 6.0 she basically went into the FS starting over and tied with Tara, so the SP has to be judged as well to use IJS. It's the same debate over and over, but we all know who the real winner is. Like everybody said at MK's induction ceremony, "She would have won in any Olympics BUT that one" -- Also Scott saying "These would have been 6.0s had she been the last skater" -- I think that tells everyone that something was wrong with the ladies' scoring in 98.

03-19-2012, 11:59 PM
It's the same debate over and over, but we all know who the real winner is.
:rolleyes: Please don't speak for me or others.

03-20-2012, 12:05 AM
Also, what about the SP? The elements were the same for all, so Lipinski wouldn't have had the tech advantage she had in the FS. Could someone have gotten a big lead after the SP? It's been so long and I'm going by memory but didn't Lipinski have a more difficult solo triple? She may have even done a triple lutz-double loop for her combo too. Or am I confusing that element with Irina and Sarah in 2002? Regardless I thought Kwan was overall superior in the short to all the ladies. In the long, not so much.

03-20-2012, 12:08 AM
Lipinski did a 3 flip and kwan did a 3 toe solo jump in the short- We are all forgetting the horrid edge call on Lipinski's lutz edge and she had 3 between both programs.

03-20-2012, 12:24 AM
I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.

When I've done this in the past :) , I figure out their average value per jumping pass and multiply by 7. The tricky question is whether or not MK's 3 loop 2t series counts as a series or as two jumping passes. Obviously, she wouldn't have wasted a jumping pass on a 2t, and if she'd repeated a 3loop w/o doing it in combo/series, it would have been devalued by .2 anyway.

Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68

I don't think there was anything wrong with ladies scoring in '98. I think of it as the day the sport became, well, a sport. If those skates had been performed anytime prior, Kwan would have won, but not since.

I think they would have been even after the SP, because Tara's 1.50 advantage from doing a 3f would have been balanced by less GOE on jumps.

It's kind of pointless/unfair to compare spins and steps as skaters basically do what they have to under any system.

03-20-2012, 12:25 AM
:rolleyes: Please don't speak for me or others.

I speak for fairness.

03-20-2012, 12:29 AM
and melodrama!

03-20-2012, 01:02 AM
and melodrama!

03-20-2012, 01:21 AM
Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....

The big loser would be Lu Chen, where almost every jump would be < or <<.

I wonder if bronze would be Slutskaya or Butyrskaya. Hard to say.

03-20-2012, 02:03 AM
Kwan would have had a huge lead after the SP, much larger than just being 1st in the 6.0 "control your own destiny" scenario. I think she might have come in 2nd in the LP by less than her lead in the SP, therefore winning in a Scott Hamiliton sort of way . . . but this is just the same old debate in a new form.

Would Butyrskaya have fared better in the sp under COP than uder 6.0? She was the only one with a clean lutz on the correct edge, and did it in combo with a double loop, which puts her ahead of Kwan and Lipinski. She also did a more difficult solo jump compared to Kwan, and a higher quality solo jump compared to Lipinski.

I tend to think Slutskaya would have medaled overall. She had two mistakes between the sp and lp, but would have gained GOE points back for the spins, the arm over the head variation on the double axel and excellent solo triple loop right out of the three turns in the sp, and well as doing a triple/triple combo in the lp past the halfway mark.

I think Chen Lu would have done way worse considering all her lutzes would probably be called UR and many of the other jumps, as well as spins, were a bit below par.

03-20-2012, 03:23 AM
^ I see the PCS and lead building opportunity as the biggest factor. It does so much for even skaters that fall. Presentation marks were neither as helpful nor as forgive under the 6.0 system.

It is true that the TES is very debatable and Kwan did not have the highest in Nagano. A lot of factors would've been removed if Kwan had done the 3F preceded by steps, as she did at Nationals and was capable of doing since 1995 Worlds. Actually, it still irritates me that she didn't because I'm inclined to believe that it would have helped her under either system, removing doubt of her dominance ... same old stinking debate.

BTW, Bonaly would have done much better under the IJS because she actual "skated" proper quite well in the SP and the TES base value of a 3T/3T is higher in the COPs than 3Lz/2T although everybody in Nagano was claiming it was a lesser combination and the same can be said for her 3S preceded by steps vs 3T preceded steps ... Everybody was saying it was easier but the COPs says otherwise. I actual think this performance of Caravan was her undisputed best performance ever.

03-20-2012, 03:57 AM
Just jumps wise:

Tara had 6 jumping passes.

Michelle had 8 jumping passes.

If COP were around, undoubtedly they'd both have seven passes, so this whole discussion is kindof moot.

Tara looses points for edge calls on both lutzes (but again, if COP were around, she'd probably had done two flips instead). I think her 3-3 was good. Her flip was a true flip and the only well-landed 3 flip in the final group that night. Her axel was small (but Carolina and Julia Lip. also have similar technique on axel and they never get -GEO for it...).

Michelle probably looses points for edge calls on her lutzes or her flip, or maybe even both the lutzes and flip (like Nagasu, as Louis said). She probably would have turned her 3 loop-turn-2 toe sequence into a true combination. (Note: She often did this turn in between jumps earlier in her career.) One wonky landing on the flip and maybe an underrotated 3 loop?

Either way, they are the top two skaters! :)

03-20-2012, 08:53 AM
Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....
Uber ? No. But I don't understand what you say. Her Flip is a flip (on the CBS video, it's clearly an inside edge), and her second Lutz is not questionnable, IMO. The first one would have had a e or a !.
Anyway, for sure, all Tara's lutzes would have been e, without any doubt.
Michelle's second Loop is complete for me, but without slomo, I can't say. The same for Tara's second Loop.
So, I don't see how Tara's jumps are cleaner, when Tara has two e, and maybe a <, against Michelle's ! and maybe <. Plus, Michelle clean jumps were fabulous (Salchow, Toe, Loop, Axel), bigger than Tara's jumps. ;)

03-20-2012, 11:38 AM
Not sure the PCS would have gone all Kwan's way either... Tara was on fire and I still think of that performance as one of the best in the history of women's figure skating. Tara would also have had some "late in the program" jump bonuses.
I clearly think of Tara as the better spinner, under COP it's all about getting the levels - not being elegant!