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View Full Version : Was It A Mistake To Send Czisny & Abbott to the Challenge Cup?



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kwanette
03-12-2012, 10:30 PM
Czisny and Abbott wanted to go to Challenge Cup IIRC, USFS did not "make" either of them though. Jeremy was still ailing at the time of 4CC and Alissa was not selected to skate there, so this seemed like a good alternative for the both of them in that it gave 1.) Jeremy more time to heald and 2.) Alissa (well and Jeremy) a chance to compete before Worlds. If one or both of them are injured I'd rather know now so they can be replaced then at Worlds if injuries cause them to bomb and cost us 3 spots. So yeah. USFS is not to blame.

Anyways I'm not that worried, Jeremy did not skate well here, but his score is still Miner's SB score, so replacing him (unless he's injured) does not make much sense. His PCS are holding him up when the jumps don't work out so well, and if his jumps work better at Worlds, he will do quite well. Ross has been consistent this season, but if he skates well, he scores what Jeremy got here or maybe a little higher, if he is a little off, then he'll likely score lower than Jeremy did here in which case we'd be better off sending Jeremy (unless he's still injured).

As for Alissa, her PCS won't hold her up when she makes that many mistakes, and they also drop more with her mistakes than Abbott's, but anyways, first alternate is Zaawadzki - not Gold, Zhang, or Nagasu, and well we've seen how Agnes usually skates in her FS this season, at one of her GPs the score was lower than Alissa's bomb here, and even her SB is only 104, which Alissa can manage with a sub-par skate for her (just not a complete bomb like here), so idk how smart replacing her is, unless she's injured. If Alissa happens to skate well, there's a very good chance for 3 spots next year, if she doesn't skate well, I'm not convinced Agnes would score much higher/if at all. So might as well send Alissa because at least if she skates well she has a chance at a medal, which Zawadzki realistically doesn't.

The way I see it, Jeremy could place like, anywhere from 2nd-12th at Worlds. Ross realistically would probably score from 6th-12th, maybe even more like 8th-15th, so Jeremy is the bigger gamble but there's a chance he gets a much better placement. The same goes for Alissa, 2nd-15th is her range for Worlds. Zawadzki would be like 6th-15th realistically, so again Alissa is the bigger gamble but with the chance for better results.
Misunderstood.

triple_toe
03-13-2012, 01:06 AM
Jeremy's tweet sounds like he's either sucking up to the USFSA or trying to tell the fans to chill out. Although I'm kind of not too concerned about him because he did manage to at least pull in on most of his jumps. This may be wishful thinking on my part but it seemed like he was fairly casual about setting up for the performance and wasn't putting too much effort into doing amazingly. I hope.

MR-FAN
03-13-2012, 01:41 AM
How anyone can think doing the Challenge Cup for those 2 was a mistake is beyond me...

they haven't competed since US Nationals, which was what, 6 weeks ago? They've been training since, and are pretty much at the same shape as they will be in a couple of weeks for worlds. They just competed at a low-stress competition is Europe a couple of weeks before worlds, and bombed. Thank GOD they went to the Challenge Cup!!!

Guess what folks, chances are had they not gone, these would've been their performances at the worlds championship. And all we'd be hearing during the off-season would be what a terrible mistake not going to a pre-worlds competition was. Both had a chance to test their training and preparation, and got a wake-up call. For the next couple of weeks, you better believe that they'll be gearing towards salvaging themselves in Nice.

Alissa wanted to test a new layout for her LP that felt more comfortable during practice sessions, and realized competition ice is a different ball game. I hope she and her team resort back to her old layout and forget about the 2axel-3toe combo till next season. I was thrilled she was upping the ante this season technically, but after an injury and 4 disapointing - borderline disastrous - performances in a row, she needs to get through a basic 6 triples and a double axel program to to end her season. It took a full season of consistent performances for the judges to finally reward her in the PCS department. she's 1 bad performance away from the judges giving up on her. She took A LOT from her appearance at the Challenge Cup

And Jeremy, tested the quad in the SP, didn't go well at all. That's what he wanted to test before Worlds. I bet his team will be rethinking his SP strategy for days to come. And lessons were learned for the LP as well. Don't switch the flip and the lutz. Add the combo to the first 3axel if you land it. Get a 3-3 as soon as you can before you tire out. It's good to get this message before Worlds.

So was it a mistake? Heeells no! A blessing in disguise if you ask me

museksk8r
03-13-2012, 02:31 AM
That's the spirit, MR-FAN!

For Jeremy, the 4toe attempt should be saved for the LP, and if he has a good one to open his program, then he can make the decision to tack on a 3toe to the end of it. The SP is just too risky to attempt the 4 combination when he hasn't been attempting it in the SP all season long.

Ideal Abbott SP jump layout:

3flip+3toe
3Axel
3Lutz

If pristine clean, he could potentially score 85 points with this content and with the fact that he has a top quality program that the judges have taken a liking to all season long. Scores tend to go up at Worlds, particularly if a skater skates his/her best and the judges like the program.

Ideal Abbott LP jump layout:

4toe+3toe
3Axel+2toe
3flip
x3Axel
x3Lutz
x3loop
x3Lutz+2toe+2loop
x3Salchow

Ideal Czisny SP jump layout:

3Lutz+2toe
3loop
2Axel

Ideal Czisny LP jump layout:

3Lutz+2toe
2Axel+2toe
3flip
x3loop+2toe+2loop or 3toe+2toe+2loop
x3Lutz
x3loop
x3toe

geod2
03-13-2012, 03:04 AM
Ideal Czisny LP jump layout:

3Lutz+2toe
2Axel+2toe
3flip
x3loop+2toe+2loop
x3Lutz
x3loop
x3toe


Ideal only if she skates it clean.
She has done only one program with 6 triples attempted (Skate America, months ago) and got negative GOE on every one of them (plus a she fell on the 3F).
Of the 25 Triples she has attempted in 5 competitions this season she received:
- negative GOE on 18 of 25
- under-rotation/DG calls on 10 of 25.

Sadly, but realistically, she doesn't have what it takes to skate 6 clean triples. Period.

Even though Alissa wants to medal at Worlds (and who wouldn't?) her best strategy is to build a program that she can skate clean.
That would be 5 triples attempted and completed. Don't take a chance on a fall that will detract from the rest of program and shake her confidence.
OK that only gets her to 4th-7th. There's a very good chance that Ashley will do well enough that between her and Alissa the U.S. gets 3 spots back again.
Alissa going for 6 triples is too risky...the (not very) possible upside gain is easily trumped by the downside risk.

If she takes the pressure off herself and skates a clean beautiful 5 triple (maybe 2 2As) LP she can walk away from Worlds
with her head held high and no regrets whatever her placement.


-

UGG
03-13-2012, 02:10 PM
Ideal only if she skates it clean.
She has done only one program with 6 triples attempted (Skate America, months ago) and got negative GOE on every one of them (plus a she fell on the 3F).
Of the 25 Triples she has attempted in 5 competitions this season she received:
- negative GOE on 18 of 25
- under-rotation/DG calls on 10 of 25.

Sadly, but realistically, she doesn't have what it takes to skate 6 clean triples. Period.

Even though Alissa wants to medal at Worlds (and who wouldn't?) her best strategy is to build a program that she can skate clean.
That would be 5 triples attempted and completed. Don't take a chance on a fall that will detract from the rest of program and shake her confidence.
OK that only gets her to 4th-7th. There's a very good chance that Ashley will do well enough that between her and Alissa the U.S. gets 3 spots back again.
Alissa going for 6 triples is too risky...the (not very) possible upside gain is easily trumped by the downside risk.

If she takes the pressure off herself and skates a clean beautiful 5 triple (maybe 2 2As) LP she can walk away from Worlds
with her head held high and no regrets whatever her placement.


-

I agree. Her goal should be to skate clean. She cannot take big risks because in her case, if she fails she ends up 10th or worse. It's not like she is Kwan or Cohen who, on their worst day, would probably end up 4th.

wonderlen
03-13-2012, 03:11 PM
Alissa should just stick to 5 triples program period. Ever. She never skated clean program and landing 5 will be great for her. If she lands all her jumps with no fall or DG, she can def add up more points with her nonjumps elements (currently on senior level, no ones can milk out these points like her) and she can easily get 120+ or more.

I think her game play should be skate what you can and let the dices fall where they may. Honestly neither Mao, Kostner has yet to skates completly clean program so far and even thou Ashley attempts more triples than her, she does give up points away with her scratchy landings....so its all even out.

olympic
03-13-2012, 04:15 PM
I think Alissa could do -

3z-2t
2x
3f
x-3z (or 3t - if the lutz is still a huge issue)
x-3t-2t
x-3l
x-3l-2t-2l

I think 6 triples is doable, as long as no 3-3, no 3sal, and no 2x-3t. She can leave out a 2d 3z if it's a big problem and just do a 3t

Cheylana
03-13-2012, 05:02 PM
Didn't Alissa stand up six triples at the 2010-11 GPF? Or am I remembering wrong?

Ziggy
03-13-2012, 05:07 PM
I'm wondering why ANY of the top skaters would have done this event so close to Worlds.

To try things out?

Jammers
03-13-2012, 05:48 PM
The whole system is a crap shoot, Dornbush had a better fall season than Mahbanoozadeh and beat him in the FS at nationals so they decided to forgive him the SP bomb there and make him 1st alternate for 4CC. They also made a gamble sending 16th place finisher Farris to JW and he ended up winning silver, placing ahead of 9th place nationals finisher Brown, with a huge score, and came super close to winning the title. In that situation, the gamble paid off, you could have said Warren was more "deserving" of the spot based on the way he skated at Nats, but no way would he have come in 2nd in that field had he been sent. Ricky skating well will beat Armin skating well internationally, USFS knows that, so they sent him. They probably thought his SP at nats was a fluke, turns out he was actually in a bit of a rut, so while it sucks for Armin, his GOOD performances at nats probably seemed like a fluke because he was so lackluster on the GP. What it comes down to is, none of the other US men, if skating clean, can top a clean Abbott in international competition, and of the US ladies, the only ones who, if skating clean, can top a clean Alissa in international competition are Ashley, who is already going to Worlds, and Mirai, who was not solid at nationals and has been off her game a bit this whole season. So they might as well send Jeremy and Alissa to Worlds, if they bomb there, the USFS will take note and I'm sure invest more attention in younger skaters with more potential for the future coming up through the ranks next season.

I don't think Ashley would beat Alissa internationally if both skated clean. In fact Mirai would probably beat Ashley if both skated clean as we've seen when Mirai actually does put it all together the judges do usually reward her too.

viennese
03-13-2012, 05:48 PM
I'm wondering why ANY of the top skaters would have done this event so close to Worlds.

I wondered the same - even after Kostner's strong skate.

What's the rationale behind having top skaters peak twice in 3 weeks?

In years past, when some National championships, Grand Prix Finals, plus Europeans were all scheduled in January-February, skaters, coaches and fans noticed a weariness creeping in by the time World came around in March. Isn't this the reason that GPF is now in December?

Frau Muller
03-13-2012, 06:01 PM
I don't think Ashley would beat Alissa internationally if both skated clean. In fact Mirai would probably beat Ashley if both skated clean .....

Not so sure about that. Ashley presents herself in a more confident manner (speed, facial expression, choreographic accents, etc.). There's more to PCS than some pretty, well-centered spins.

Wyliefan
03-13-2012, 06:02 PM
I don't think Ashley would beat Alissa internationally if both skated clean. In fact Mirai would probably beat Ashley if both skated clean as we've seen when Mirai actually does put it all together the judges do usually reward her too.

Not when Mirai pulls that emotionless zombie act that she's been doing lately. (I still can't get used to seeing that from her. She used to be such a fun skater.)

Seerek
03-13-2012, 06:42 PM
I think in the case of Carolina Kostner, it was a good idea to test out the new jump layout for the LP at least once before Worlds, since she's dropping a more dependable easier element for a more difficult element that is getting better in consistency as the season progresses.