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Vash01
02-25-2012, 06:40 AM
The Oscars are less than 2 days away. We don't yet have a predictions thread, I believe, so here are my predictions.

(Here is the list of nominees:
http://oscar.go.com/nominees)

Best picture:
Should: Descendants
Will: Artist (I am in the minority here)
Dark horse: Hugo

Best Director:
Should:Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Will: Hazanavicius(sp?) (Artist)
Dark horse: Payne (Descendants)

Best lead actor:
Should: Jean Dujardin (Artist)
Will: George Clooney (Descendants)
Dark horse: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Best lead actress:
Should: Meryl Streep (Iron lady)
Will:Viola Davis (The help)
Dark horse: Michelle Williams (My week with Marilyn)

Best Supporting actor:
Should and will: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Dark horse: None

Best supporting actress:
Should & will: Octavia Spencer (The help)
Dark horse: Berenice Bejo

Best original screenplay:
Should: A separation
Will: Midnight in Paris
Dark horse: Artist

Best adapted screenplay:
Should:The descendants
Will:Hugo
Dark Horse: Moneyball

Cinematography:
Should & will: Artist
Dark horse: Tree of life

Editing:
Should: Girl with the dragon tattoo
Will:Descendants
Dark horse: Artist

Art direction:
Should: Hugo
Will: Artist
Dark horse: Midnight in Paris

Costumes:
Should:Midnight in Paris
Will: Artist
Dark horse: Midnight in Paris

Music:
Should: Midnight in Paris
Will: Artist
Dark horse: Tree of life

Make up:
Should & will: Iron lady
Dark horse: Harry Potter

Best foreign film:
Should & will: A separation (it's the only one I have seen)

mrinalini
02-25-2012, 08:15 AM
So far, I've seen Meryl, Viola and Rooney, and Meryl was light years better than the other two. Not that Viola and Rooney were bad, but their roles just weren't challenging enough and were fairly one-dimensional (especially Rooney's). I'm appalled that Mara was even nominated, but I guess that's what happens when TPTB have anointed you as the next hot young thing. I've heard that Glenn wasn't actually that great in her film and Michelle seems to be mostly under the radar, so IMO the Oscar should and will go to Meryl. My, did she ever capture the bleakness and quiet desperation of the aged in what was otherwise a very mediocre film.

Other WTF moments are 'The Tree of Life' and 'Midnight in Paris' getting so many major nominations. The former film is one of the biggest pieces of pretentious crap I've seen in a long while, and the latter is so lightweight and is far from Woody Allen's best. It must be a really weak year for movies if those two films can be nominated for Best Picture.

Oh, and I agree about 'A Separation' - I haven't seen its contenders but it's a lovely film and should win. How refreshing it is to see a film that portrays Iranian society in an empathetic light at a time when Iran is being so demonized. But then, all the Iranian films I've seen have simply glowed with humanity - I urge everyone who hasn't to go see 'The Color of Paradise', or 'Rang-e Khoda' (it's on YouTube); it had this normally stoic viewer in tears at its very moving conclusion.

BigB08822
02-25-2012, 08:50 AM
One dimensional seems to win Oscars lately...Sandra Bullock for the Blind Side? Really?

soxxy
02-25-2012, 01:25 PM
Mark Wahlberg claims to "know" the winners: :)

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/02/24/oscars-the-artist-win-mark-wahlberg_n_1299178.html

For those who don't wish to be spoiled by Marky Mark, my predictions:

Best Picture - The Artist
Best Actor - Jean Dujardin
Best Actress - Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius
Best Original Screenplay - Woody Allen

my little pony
02-25-2012, 03:04 PM
One dimensional seems to win Oscars lately...Sandra Bullock for the Blind Side? Really?

ita

the help was very lifetimey, i dont feel the love at all. but it is very much like the blind side so i guess it will do well.

Grannyfan
02-25-2012, 03:07 PM
Some stuff I was reading yesterday from an entertainment site claims that The Artist
is suffering some backlash because of Dujardin's appearance on Saturday Night Live. I didn't see the show so I don't know what he did.

Buzz
02-25-2012, 03:09 PM
Of all those movies mentioned I have only ever seen Moneyball and The Help.

sliver98
02-25-2012, 03:14 PM
If i had a vote it would be Williams hands down for best actress the most difficult and expansive role of the 5, Streep is stuck in an awful movie that does not deserve any awards and the help was a hallmark lifetime movie of the week full of cliches plus Davis seemed to be channeling the superior performance of Whoopi Goldberg in the color purple. Anyway i predict Davis will win things can get very Politically correct at these awards shows nowadays.

michiruwater
02-25-2012, 03:15 PM
I agree with the OP, I would pick either The Descendants or Tree of Life over The Artist for best picture. I know TOL has no chance, so of the two frontrunners I would absolutely pick The Descendants.

I don't think Clooney will win, though - I think Dujardin will. Both did excellent jobs in their respective films, however, and I would be fine with either nabbing the BA. That said, Clooney already had one and I'll be surprised if he doesn't continue to get nominated for the rest of his career (in multiple categories), whereas this may be the only shot for Dujardin.

I preferred Streep to Viola Davis, but, again, I'd be fine with either.

I don't understand why Octavia Spencer is winning everything. I don't think her role stretched any limitations or was terribly difficult. She was funny, yes, but Chastain was better in most of her supporting roles (her performance in Tree of Life is the one that should have been nominated) and Bejo was absolutely outstanding in The Artist with a much more difficult role that few could have pulled off. I'd pick Bejo for the Oscar.

Plummer was fantastic in Beginners. No argument for me there. That movie was totally underrated.

I would pick Malick for Best Director. If not, I would be fine with either Allen or the guy with the impossibly long name who did The Artist. Both were wonderful. I think if Allen didn't have the reputation he (justifiably) has, Midnight in Paris would be getting far more recognition.

I would absolutely pick Tree of Life for both Score and Cinematography as well. But, obviously, I really loved that film.

I will say, for once I am glad that there are three films in particular (Tree of Life, The Descendants, and The Artist) that, to me, were really outstanding this year - and I haven't seen Huge yet but intend to today. I can't remember the last year that I thought more than 1 or 2 were really great. Maybe the year that There Will Be Blood, Atonement, and No Country For Old Men came out, but my opinion of No Country has faded some since then.

Jenna
02-25-2012, 04:46 PM
So far, I've seen Meryl, Viola and Rooney, and Meryl was light years better than the other two. Not that Viola and Rooney were bad, but their roles just weren't challenging enough and were fairly one-dimensional (especially Rooney's). I'm appalled that Mara was even nominated, but I guess that's what happens when TPTB have anointed you as the next hot young thing.

Well I, for one, throught Rooney Mara was brilliant in TGWTDT. She fully deserved her nomination and I wouldn't mind if she took home the statue tomorrow night. My second choice would be Viola Davis, followed by Streep, then Glenn, and then Michelle.

Vash01
02-25-2012, 04:49 PM
I agree with the OP, I would pick either The Descendants or Tree of Life over The Artist for best picture. I know TOL has no chance, so of the two frontrunners I would absolutely pick The Descendants.



I would absolutely pick Tree of Life for both Score and Cinematography as well. But, obviously, I really loved that film.
n.


I am sorry, but I did not pick Tree of life for best picture. IMO it is the worst movie on the best picture list, and one of the worst movies I have seen this year. IMO Mallick should not have been nominated either; somehow the academy seems to love his type of direction. I know it's a love or hate type movie. I actually considered walking out of TOL. The only good thing about it was the acting and none of the actors got the Oscar nom for this movie (they got it for others). I even thought the cinematography was poor. It was overdone and it tortured my eyes. I preferred the subtle cinematography of Artist, Midnight in Paris, and quite a few other movies, including The girl with the dragon tattoo. The one thing I loved about TOL was the music- it was wonderful. I won't mind it if it wins the Oscar for score.

Vash01
02-25-2012, 04:53 PM
Well I, for one, throught Rooney Mara was brilliant in TGWTDT. She fully deserved her nomination and I wouldn't mind if she took home the statue tomorrow night. My second choice would be Viola Davis, followed by Streep, then Glenn, and then Michelle.

I thought Mara fully deserved her nomination, based on her brilliant performance. I don't know if she deserved it more than Tilda Swinton or not because I have not seen her movie (we need to talk about Kevin). As much as I liked Viola Davis, I don't think her role was as challenging as Meryl's or Michelle's. IMO Meryl deserves this Oscar, but I don't think she will get it. Oscar for lead actress has a history of going to undeserving performances, in the last 10 years or so (Sandra Bullock, Julia Roberts, Gwyneth Paltrow- although she won more than 10 years ago). At least this year all the leading actress performances were phenomenal, so no one is undeserving this year.

Jenna
02-25-2012, 04:56 PM
Well yes, Viola's role was simpler. Probably the simplest of the whole field, but she delivered it extremely well. We'll see..

Lorac
02-25-2012, 06:28 PM
I have a feeling that Meryl will get it mainly because so much emphasis this year has been placed on the fact it is close to 30 years since she last won an oscar and she really should have won more than 2 when you look at her body of work. She is very good in the movie but the movie itself is pretty bad!! Michelle Williams had the better performance this year IMHO but I never saw the Help so can't comment on those performances. I also think the Artist will sweep 3 of the big 4 - actor, director and film - though I did think the Descendents was a better overall movie. Christopher Plummer will and should win for Beginners. And I really have no opinion for the Best supporting actress role.

Vash01
02-25-2012, 06:37 PM
Last night Pierce Brosnan interviewed David (not sure of his last name; sounded like Carther...?), who claimed to have a 90% success rate in his Oscar predictions. His predictions were- Artist for best pic, best director, but Clooney for lead actor, and Viola for lead actress.

One thing that has puzzled me lately is that the SAG awards which are a good predictors of Oscars in the actor/actress category, have had some surprise selections, like Sandra Bullock (how on earth...?), but she won the Oscar. They gave the award to Streep for Doubt but she did not win the Oscar (Winslet won, as expected). This year they picked Viola. It could go to any of the three top actresses in this category- Viola/Meryl/Michelle. I wish I had seen Albert Nobbs to be able to comment on Glenn Close's performance. Is she the dark horse?

(ETA to correct the typo in Albert Nobbs)