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haribobo
02-18-2012, 04:02 PM
Well, some will only get to senior B's instead of GP. But anyway, who is likely to move from juniors to seniors next season internationally?

MEN- Possibly Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, and Yan Han but not definitely. Tim Dolensky and Philip Warren are aging out. I believe Artur Dmitriev Jr., Liam Firus, and Ryuichi Kihara are also. Zhan Bush will be at Jr. Worlds but already was doing senior B's this year so I imagine he'll be on the GP series.

LADIES- Possibly Polina Shelepen and Samantha Cesario, and maybe Julia Lipnitskaya. It's probably about time for Vanessa Lam, Risa Shoji, Zijun Li, and Polina Korobeinikova to think about moving up also. Not sure about Gracie Gold's plans, she has only done 1 JGP event so far.

PAIRS- I haven't really been keeping track except I do know that Duarte/Grafton are aging out and Sui/Han have been doing both senior and junior. Are Davankova/Deputat and Petaikina/Kurduykov old enough for senior GP?

johndockley92
02-18-2012, 06:39 PM
Some of these people need to post scores high enough to be assigned to a senior grand prix.

jlai
02-18-2012, 06:44 PM
I'm hoping Joshua and Jason can and will move up. US has a contingent of talented novice men that could use a JGP--Shum, Spencer Howe, and perhaps even Jimmy Ma all could use one, though USFS seldom goes down that far in the novice list. But with some US junior men aging out perhaps the kiddies have a shot.

Jayar
02-18-2012, 07:01 PM
Philip Warren hasn't a prayer for a GP.

Triple Butz
02-18-2012, 07:40 PM
On this subject, what's with the ISU's recent rule that discounts junior event points for senior GP selection? Are they trying to hold back young talent?

Sylvia
02-18-2012, 07:44 PM
^^^ Can you elaborate further or do you have a link?

Generally speaking, it's hard for the U.S. Junior men's medalists who are JGP age-ineligible to get a Senior B -- 2011 Junior champ Max Aaron (a respectable 5th at 2011 Junior Worlds got him to #36 on the 2010-11 SB scores list) only got Nebelhorn, while 2011 U.S. silver and bronze medalists Alex Zahradnicek and Alex Aiken didn't receive an international assignment this season. The 2012 U.S. Junior men's silver and bronze medalists, Timothy Dolensky (going to Junior Worlds) and Philip Warren are currently #49 and #63, rexpectively, on the SB list.

pinky166
02-20-2012, 05:43 AM
Philip Warren hasn't a prayer for a GP.

Shame he missed out on JW. If he skated like he did at nationals there, then he'd likely place well and do enough to at least get a senior B or something.

Currently, Brown, Farris, and Yan are all in the Top 24 SB list, so that makes them eligible for GP assignments yes? Of course after Worlds they could fall off that list, but they could also post new SBs at JW that could keep them on it. I think if these three all medal at JW and stay in the top 24 SB list, they will move up to the GP, and possibly even get 2 assignments (Yan would for sure with CoC, and one of the Americans could be given SA to get a 2nd assignment if they don't already have two). Whoever doesn't medal will likely stay on the JGP for another season, and even if Jason Brown medals, if he still doesn't have his 3a ready he could benefit from another season on the JGP.

I really hope Josh Farris delivers at JW because I really think he is ready for the senior ranks when he skates well, his 3a is solid, he's started trying 4t in competition, spins are great, and his skating is very mature and elegant for one so young. Plus the international judges love him. But he is also probably the one most likely to fall off the podium at JW of these three because he isn't always the most consistent. However, if he's clean, I think he is the clear winner, especially if he goes for the 4t in the FS. Yan is strong technically but is not as artistic or mature as Farris, or as strong in the spins. Jason is similarly artistic and a good spinner, and also has pizazz, but does not match Josh in content. Bush is a jumping machine but doesn't have much else. He can get on the podium or even win if the others make mistakes, but his PCS will make it harder for him to get to the podium.

Jayar
02-20-2012, 07:19 AM
Shame he missed out on JW. If he skated like he did at nationals there, then he'd likely place well and do enough to at least get a senior B or something.

His world ranking doesn't have any bearing on his ability to get a Senior B. He will have to skate well in summer competitions-- he is certainly on the radar with his 3rd place finish in San Jose. A Grand Prix would be a miracle-- his only shot is Skate America, and he will be late in a long list of skaters. Abbott is likely going to get an invite to SA, and if Weir is serious about a comeback, then he probably has a good shot. The third spot will go to one of Rippon, Miner, Mahbanoozadeh, Razzano, Carriere, Messing, Aaron, Brown, Dornbush, Farris, or Dolensky.

love_skate2011
02-20-2012, 11:57 AM
Well, some will only get to senior B's instead of GP. But anyway, who is likely to move from juniors to seniors next season internationally?

MEN- Possibly Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, and Yan Han but not definitely. Tim Dolensky and Philip Warren are aging out. I believe Artur Dmitriev Jr., Liam Firus, and Ryuichi Kihara are also. Zhan Bush will be at Jr. Worlds but already was doing senior B's this year so I imagine he'll be on the GP series.

LADIES- Possibly Polina Shelepen and Samantha Cesario, and maybe Julia Lipnitskaya. It's probably about time for Vanessa Lam, Risa Shoji, Zijun Li, and Polina Korobeinikova to think about moving up also. Not sure about Gracie Gold's plans, she has only done 1 JGP event so far.

PAIRS- I haven't really been keeping track except I do know that Duarte/Grafton are aging out and Sui/Han have been doing both senior and junior. Are Davankova/Deputat and Petaikina/Kurduykov old enough for senior GP?

Men: Tomothy Dolensky, Dimitriev, Zhan Bush are aging out for juniors
Han Yan I believe will go to seniors next season, Brown and Farris could stay another season. I see long term potential for Brown for Farris he could turn into another Dornbush or Miner, forgettable although I would love to be proven wrong

Ladies: Samantha Cesario, Vanessa Lam, Polina Shelepeen, Korobeynikova,
Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Gold if she goes ahead with seniors. Lipnitskaya can go to GP next season but not senior worlds yet

Ice Dance: Sinitsina/Zhiganshin may go seniors next season

Pairs: probably Sui/Han and Bobak/Beharry
Davankova is 14 years old now and Deputat is 19 so they can go to gp seniors next season and still compete at jgp

pinky166
02-20-2012, 05:12 PM
Men: Tomothy Dolensky, Dimitriev, Zhan Bush are aging out for juniors
Han Yan I believe will go to seniors next season, Brown and Farris could stay another season. I see long term potential for Brown for Farris he could turn into another Dornbush or Miner, forgettable although I would love to be proven wrong

Ladies: Samantha Cesario, Vanessa Lam, Polina Shelepeen, Korobeynikova,
Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Gold if she goes ahead with seniors. Lipnitskaya can go to GP next season but not senior worlds yet

Ice Dance: Sinitsina/Zhiganshin may go seniors next season

Pairs: probably Sui/Han and Bobak/Beharry
Davankova is 14 years old now and Deputat is 19 so they can go to gp seniors next season and still compete at jgp

How is Miner forgettable? He's done extremely well for himself this season, exceeding everyone's expectations by medaling at a GP, Nationals, and 4CC. Dornbush is in a bit of a rough spot now but I wouldn't call him forgettable either. I'm more worried about Brown's future than Farris's at this point to be honest, as Farris has a consistent 3a and has started trying the 4t in competition, and Brown has not done 3a in competition yet and I haven't heard anything about him even training a quad. Brown I fear could be the next Rippon, who lucked out this season and made it to Worlds, but with Miner's recent success I think the USFS will start to put him ahead of Rippon starting next season, Rippon doesn't get great marks internationally anyways and Miner is on the upswing. USFS already prefers Dornbush to Rippon Ricky just gave it away when he bombed nats. Brown has all the other qualities but it doesn't matter if he can't get a consistent 3a or a quad. Farris's issues are mostly stamina in the LP/consistency, which are more easily learned than a 3a or 4t, both of which he has already mastered with good technique. The rest of Farris's skating is strong as well.

Jammers
02-20-2012, 05:59 PM
How is Miner forgettable? He's done extremely well for himself this season, exceeding everyone's expectations by medaling at a GP, Nationals, and 4CC. Dornbush is in a bit of a rough spot now but I wouldn't call him forgettable either. I'm more worried about Brown's future than Farris's at this point to be honest, as Farris has a consistent 3a and has started trying the 4t in competition, and Brown has not done 3a in competition yet and I haven't heard anything about him even training a quad. Brown I fear could be the next Rippon, who lucked out this season and made it to Worlds, but with Miner's recent success I think the USFS will start to put him ahead of Rippon starting next season, Rippon doesn't get great marks internationally anyways and Miner is on the upswing. USFS already prefers Dornbush to Rippon Ricky just gave it away when he bombed nats. Brown has all the other qualities but it doesn't matter if he can't get a consistent 3a or a quad. Farris's issues are mostly stamina in the LP/consistency, which are more easily learned than a 3a or 4t, both of which he has already mastered with good technique. The rest of Farris's skating is strong as well.
Why would Jason be training for a quad since he hasn't even done a 3axel in competition yet? I think he's a better all around skater then Farris and if and when he gets the jumps he will jump up to near the top of the list of US men. Didn't Patrick Chan take awhile to get his 3xel too? Now look at him. He didn't rush to get his quad either and it worked out for him. Not saying that Jason will be as good as Chan but he alreday has better skating skills then most of the top Senior men.

Proustable
02-20-2012, 09:03 PM
Brown's coach did mention that he was having trouble with the 3A; Chan won Canadian Nationals with this skate at 17 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9LSJIzuQU), same age as Brown is now. If you asked me to wager, I'd go with Farris. Landing a 3A and a 4T puts him in good stead for next season, and ramps up the TES at world juniors.

victoriaheidi
02-20-2012, 10:41 PM
Ladies: Samantha Cesario, Vanessa Lam, Polina Shelepeen, Korobeynikova,
Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Gold if she goes ahead with seniors. Lipnitskaya can go to GP next season but not senior worlds yet


Ok, I'm pretty confident that everyone on there except for the American ladies is a lock. The US ladies may not be. In the cases of Gold and Lam, JW is key. In the case of Cesario, it's going to take some serious summer success to prove that she merits the host pick. Otherwise, I see her going to Senior B's next fall. Honestly, I feel like she's in a bind until she makes it to Nationals.

haribobo
02-20-2012, 11:22 PM
In the case of Cesario, it's going to take some serious summer success to prove that she merits the host pick.

A lot of us felt that she would have been a good pick for Skate America after her amazing skate at Liberty this year, but she chose to do junior events instead so Joelle had a pretty clear path to the spot. If Samantha shows up this summer in the same form as she was last summer, I don't really know why she shouldn't be considered for SA- unless of course she goes the junior route for ANOTHER year. She did medal at both her JGP's which puts her into Team Envelope C, and qualified for Nationals, so its not as if she has no accomplishments to her name. And her season's best score is pretty high up there also, so she may end up with a GP spot even if its not Skate America. I'd love to see her avoid injury for a whole season also, but this is not a skater to be ignored either way.

yfbg722
02-20-2012, 11:46 PM
Pairs: probably Sui/Han and Bobak/Beharry
Davankova is 14 years old now and Deputat is 19 so they can go to gp seniors next season and still compete at jgp

Sui/Han could actually do two more years on the JGP circuit. Han's birthday is listed as August 6, 1992 on their ISU bio. Unless there are some rule changes, this team could easily earn a record as the team with the most Jr. Worlds titles. According to another forum, they are set to tie the record this year. Natalia Krestianinova/Alexei Torchinski won three years in a row (90, 91, 92). Sui/Han could conceivably earn five titles before they age out.

Bobak/Beharry also have another year of eligibility. Beharry's birthday is listed as November 28, 1991.