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feraina
02-26-2012, 10:48 PM
This may all be true. But with her Season score would probably qualify on her own for at LEAST one spot. And the USFSA could arrange to give her a second one at Skate America.

There might be too many worthy U.S. ladies needing host pick next year to worry about Rachael, though. Caroline will almost surely get a host pick next year if she doesn't get two foreign invitations. Vanessa Lam and Samantha Cesario will probably both move up to seniors. Probably Leah Keiser as well. Probably also Gracie Gold if she medals at JW. And don't forget Courtney Hicks.

Internally, a lot of strong ladies from GP host countries are moving up to senior level next year: Polina K, Polina S, and Julia L from Russia, Zijun Li from China, Risa Shoji from Japan. Given the reduced number of GP entries, what it means is that a significant number of the GP-eligible US ladies will get zero or only one assignment, and will be therefore be looking to SA.

Passing over Alissa for Caroline for 4CC shows that USFSA *is* looking at the future and well aware of nurturing future talents on the rise. And even though the marketing in 4CC played the Rachael card strongly, in the end she was not sent.

ETA: Sorry, Bek, I thought you were talking about Rachael.

Sylvia
02-26-2012, 10:54 PM
But Leah Keiser hasn't competed on the JGP yet.

We have an ongoing JGP to GP speculation discussion thread here :): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=82622

ETA: Or it may be time to bump up this 2012-13 US assignments (early) speculation thread again: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=82275

bek
02-26-2012, 11:33 PM
There might be too many worthy U.S. ladies needing host pick next year to worry about Rachael, though. Caroline will almost surely get a host pick next year if she doesn't get two foreign invitations. Vanessa Lam and Samantha Cesario will probably both move up to seniors. Probably Leah Keiser as well. Probably also Gracie Gold if she medals at JW. And don't forget Courtney Hicks.

Internally, a lot of strong ladies from GP host countries are moving up to senior level next year: Polina K, Polina S, and Julia L from Russia, Zijun Li from China, Risa Shoji from Japan. Given the reduced number of GP entries, what it means is that a significant number of the GP-eligible US ladies will get zero or only one assignment, and will be therefore be looking to SA.

Passing over Alissa for Caroline for 4CC shows that USFSA *is* looking at the future and well aware of nurturing future talents on the rise. And even though the marketing in 4CC played the Rachael card strongly, in the end she was not sent.

ETA: Sorry, Bek, I thought you were talking about Rachael.

No I wasn't talking about Rachael; I was kind of saying that I thought if the US gave anyone a host pick Gold would be one of the first in line-if she continues to look like the current form she's in. She's by far the best/seemingly most consistent jumper (Agnes isn't very consistent although we haven't seen much of Gracie yet), and is one of the few that can compete at least technically with the coming Russian babies. I think she probably will medal at Junior Worlds if she skates well-maybe even win. The Russians politiking wise have a lot more to politik for...

pinky166
02-27-2012, 12:35 AM
There might be too many worthy U.S. ladies needing host pick next year to worry about Rachael, though. Caroline will almost surely get a host pick next year if she doesn't get two foreign invitations. Vanessa Lam and Samantha Cesario will probably both move up to seniors. Probably Leah Keiser as well. Probably also Gracie Gold if she medals at JW. And don't forget Courtney Hicks.

Internally, a lot of strong ladies from GP host countries are moving up to senior level next year: Polina K, Polina S, and Julia L from Russia, Zijun Li from China, Risa Shoji from Japan. Given the reduced number of GP entries, what it means is that a significant number of the GP-eligible US ladies will get zero or only one assignment, and will be therefore be looking to SA.

Passing over Alissa for Caroline for 4CC shows that USFSA *is* looking at the future and well aware of nurturing future talents on the rise. And even though the marketing in 4CC played the Rachael card strongly, in the end she was not sent.

ETA: Sorry, Bek, I thought you were talking about Rachael.

Leah Keiser will likely do JGP as she hasn't competed there yet and is only 14 and won't be senior ISU championship eligible next season anyways. If Cesario moves up, she will do senior Bs I'm fairly certain. She doesn't have a high enough WS to get a GP invite as her only international competitions have been 3 JGP events, with 4th, 3rd, and 3rd place finishes at each, and only her score at one of those was high enough to really warrant a GP invitation. Courtney Hicks if healthy will likely return to the JGP considering her only international events have been JW and one JGP so her WS isn't very high, and she doesn't have nationals results to give her a boost in politiking (neither does Cesario). Even Mirai may be at risk for only getting one GP invitation, though she should be alright. Gracie will likely do GP, though if she doesn't medal at JW she may need a host spot at SA to get a 2nd event, as her SB will be good for one invite but with her lack of international experience, with no medal at JW her WS will be quite low and it will be difficult to get 2 events off the bat.

Zijun will likely move up, but I think that will just mean Zhu and/or Geng will no longer be sent to CoC because obviously Zijun is way better than both of them. Zijun's medals on the JGP and YOG, WS, and SB score should be enough to get her at least one invite the normal way, and a second spot can be given in the form of a CoC host pick if she doesn't already get another one elsewhere.

Shoji's been a little hot and cold this season but she has a pretty good WS and SB from her JGP experience and JW last season, so she should be able to get 1 GP invite on her own and then a host spot at NHK, as even when she URs her jumps she's stronger than Ishikawa who was given the host spot this season. Her SB is also higher than Imai's and she has a chance to improve upon that at JW. If she medals at JW or even does not medal but just puts up a high score, then she may be able to get two GP invites without one being a host pick, opening up that host spot for someone else (perhaps Imai). Sato and Miyahara are both very young and will likely do another season on the JGP, especially because neither has gone to a JGPF yet and Risa has already gone to two. Risa is likely 4th in line to get GP assignments after Mao, Akiko, and Kanako. Haruka's results have been a bit blah this season so I wouldn't be surprised if she only gets 1 GP in favor of Risa getting 2.

Russia's ladies field will be crazy deep, I know this season the top 6 US ladies were each given 2 GPs each, but in Russia even if the same happens, Tuktamysheva, Leonova, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, Korobeynikova are likely locks for 2, meaning the last 2 spots would be fought for by Shelepen, Biryukova, Makarova, and Agafonova (whom I assume does not want to do a 4th season on the JGP)...craziness! They are all worthy of 2 spots each (except for maybe Makarova..:shuffle: sorry).

love_skate2011
02-27-2012, 07:24 AM
Even Mirai may be at risk for only getting one GP invitation, though she should be alright. Gracie will likely do GP, though if she doesn't medal at JW she may need a host spot at SA to get a 2nd event, as her SB will be good for one invite but with her lack of international experience, with no medal at JW her WS will be quite low and it will be difficult to get 2 events off the bat.

Sato and Miyahara are both very young and will likely do another season on the JGP, especially because neither has gone to a JGPF yet and Risa has already gone to two. Risa is likely 4th in line to get GP assignments after Mao, Akiko, and Kanako. Haruka's results have been a bit blah this season so I wouldn't be surprised if she only gets 1 GP in favor of Risa getting 2.

Russia's ladies field will be crazy deep, I know this season the top 6 US ladies were each given 2 GPs each, but in Russia even if the same happens, Tuktamysheva, Leonova, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, Korobeynikova are likely locks for 2, meaning the last 2 spots would be fought for by Shelepen, Biryukova, Makarova, and Agafonova (whom I assume does not want to do a 4th season on the JGP)...craziness! They are all worthy of 2 spots each (except for maybe Makarova..:shuffle: sorry).

I think 2 Senior GP for Gold would be good for her next season :)
given by then her SB would go up and with her as a lock for JW podium

Zijun will be going seniors also not sure about Shoji she has been struggling so they could put her to GP for another season also Miyahara already competed in JGP and will continue

last 2 spots would likley be given to Shelepen and Biryukova with Agafonova might still be competing in JGP next season :shuffle:( she is still 15 and is still in need of polishing ) for only getting bronze in most of her assignments and not getting into JGPF.

Jammers
02-27-2012, 11:32 AM
Why do people keep saying Gracie is a lock for the podium at JW? :eek:

DORISPULASKI
02-27-2012, 12:44 PM
Because they want to jinx her? I think the field is deep enough at Jr Worlds that no one can count on being a lock except for Julia.

love_skate2011
02-27-2012, 01:05 PM
I don't think jinx because if someone said she is a lock for Gold that is a jinx
lock for podium just means she can either finish 1st - 3rd. same for Julia

can't say the same for as Adelina she has been a hit or miss this season
Gold has a bigger SB at JGP than Shelepen , Shelpen mostly gets 1 fall from her programs and underotates while Gold has superior jumps , good spins and has a very mature skating compared to most other junior skaters and has been the most consistent of all junior skaters. so its justified most people see Gold will be at the podium.

with that said. what the outcome is after junior worlds
hope she does go to GP , staying junior at 17 years old for another season will not e good for her.
( even Shelepen and Korobeynikova are transitioning ) plus it will buy time for the international judges
to familiarize with Gracie until 2014

Autumn_girl
02-27-2012, 01:45 PM
Gold has superior jumps , good spins and has a very mature skating compared to most other junior skaters and has been the most consistent of all junior skaters.

Not at all. First, her only international competition was JGP and her LP wasn't perfect there, she popped a jump IIRC, while Julia, for example, won two JGP events and JGPF and had no falls and/or popped jumps at all. Don't get me wrong, Gracie is really good and is one of the main contenders for a medal, but she is not tested yet, other girls, who are the same age or younger, have a lot more international experience than her

kwanatic
02-27-2012, 02:06 PM
I do think Gracie's in the medal hunt, but if all of the top ladies skate their best I can't see Gracie finishing higher than 3rd. I've said it before if Adelina goes clean, she'll win. Her jumps are difficult and massive, she has the best presentation of any of the junior ladies, her speed is wonderful and her spins are solid. Her only problem is she's been a bit hit-or-miss this season.

Julia Lipnitskaia is having an awesome season. She has excellent presentation for a 13/14 year old and her spins are ridiculous. She has a 3t-3t in her SP and two 2a-3ts in her LP which does put her on the lower end in terms of technical content (Sotnikova, Shelepen and Gold both have 3-3s in their LPs) but Julia can make up points with the GOEs on her spins.

Given the titles and international experience that those ladies have and due to the fact that Gracie is a newcomer to the junior level scene, she'd have to nail everything and probably need someone to mess up in order to beat one of the aforementioned ladies. IMO at their best, Gracie can't beat them. It'd be close but little things like presentation, interpretation, spins, reputation, etc. is where she doesn't stack up high enough.

This will be her first big event with real competition. Every other competition she's entered this year has basically been a cakewalk for her...we haven't had to see her fight, so I'm really interested to see how she'll handle the pressure of an intensely competitive atmosphere.

bek
02-27-2012, 02:39 PM
I don't think jinx because if someone said she is a lock for Gold that is a jinx
lock for podium just means she can either finish 1st - 3rd. same for Julia

can't say the same for as Adelina she has been a hit or miss this season
Gold has a bigger SB at JGP than Shelepen , Shelpen mostly gets 1 fall from her programs and underotates while Gold has superior jumps , good spins and has a very mature skating compared to most other junior skaters and has been the most consistent of all junior skaters. so its justified most people see Gold will be at the podium.

with that said. what the outcome is after junior worlds
hope she does go to GP , staying junior at 17 years old for another season will not e good for her.
( even Shelepen and Korobeynikova are transitioning ) plus it will buy time for the international judges
to familiarize with Gracie until 2014

Most consistent-I don't think so. We haven't seen Julia fall ONCE this season. And Julia has had much greater competition than Gracie... Gracie fell at Junior Nationals, and had a mistake at Sectionals.

Gracie hasn't faced the kind of competition the baby Russians are use too.

pinky166
02-27-2012, 04:30 PM
Why do people keep saying Gracie is a lock for the podium at JW? :eek:

I know seriously. With the field as deep as it is, Gracie would already have to skate very well to MAKE the podium. If everyone were to skate her best, she likely would make the podium, but honestly, it's like everyone's assuming Sotnikova will bomb and that Shelepen, Gao, Li, Shoji, Miyahara, Lam, etc are incapable of beating Gracie even if she bombs. That's simply not true. The field is crazy deep and if Gracie makes the podium it will be a huge accomplishment. The field last year wasn't quite as deep and Courtney Hicks only managed to finish 6th after everyone was going all gaga over her. Do I think Gracie is capable of medaling at JW? Yes. Do I think, if all goes smoothly that she likely will medal at JW? Yes. Do I consider her a "lock" for the podium? Absolutely not. There's about 10 really talented girls in this field who could make the podium with a pair of good skates or finish nowhere near the podium if things don't go so well.

Sylvia
02-27-2012, 04:35 PM
Only one person in this thread has mentioned the word "lock"; the majority of people posting here disagree with that person.

pinky166
02-27-2012, 04:36 PM
I think 2 Senior GP for Gold would be good for her next season :)
given by then her SB would go up and with her as a lock for JW podium

Zijun will be going seniors also not sure about Shoji she has been struggling so they could put her to GP for another season also Miyahara already competed in JGP and will continue

last 2 spots would likley be given to Shelepen and Biryukova with Agafonova might still be competing in JGP next season :shuffle:( she is still 15 and is still in need of polishing ) for only getting bronze in most of her assignments and not getting into JGPF.

Shoji will probably move up to GP in the fall, she will be 16 by then and she's already done JGP for two seasons and made the JGPF both times. Sure she has been struggling a bit recently, but her SB and WS are good, and if she waits another year, she will likely have more competition for spots as Miyahara and Sato move up. Risa skated well at her GPs and at nationals, and Haruka Imai was able to get 2 GPs this season after struggling last season and this season again she is struggling, her SB is well below Shoji's and that is from senior competitions. Hopefully Risa does better at JW, if she can score around 150 or higher and make the top 10 I think she should do GP next season. She has the SS for seniors and all her triples and difficult content, the URs maybe were more of an issue this season because she was going through puberty, hopefully it will get better. She should be able to get 1 assignment on her own and then the 2nd can be NHK. She is stronger than the likes of Ishikawa, Fujisawa, and Nishino who will likely get the spot(s) if she stays junior another year, and arguably she is stronger than Imai too who seems to be bombing every FS this season.

Jammers
02-27-2012, 10:01 PM
In a way though i feel that Gracie since she has weathered her growth spurts is a bit ahead of someone like Julia at least for Sochi. Julia still has the body of a little girl and those jumps might not be there in the coming years while Gracie had kept her jumps. In another year or two Julia might be struggling like Adelina and she can't afford to struggle with the Russian depth in Ladies. Things might change in the next couple years.