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euterpe
02-08-2012, 03:38 PM
They have just had Russian Junior Nationals. Had Russian and American junior nationals been one competition, then Gracie would not have even made the podium as these were the scores:-

1. Julia Lipnitskaya - 191.92
2. Polina Shelepen - 182.54
3. Elena Radionova - 178.94
4. Gracie Gold - 178.92

Notice that Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Korobeynikova did not even compete at Russian juniors. Had they done, then Gold would probably have ended finishing 7th.

As I understand it, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya will all be going to junior worlds. Hence, can't see Gold coming away with a medal.

Those are all inflated Nationals scores. If you use ISU Seasons Best scores, Gold doesn't drop off the medals:

183.05 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU JGP Trofeo W. Lombardi 2011
182.89 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee E. Bompard 2011
172.69 Gracie GOLD USA ISU JGP Tallinn Cup 2011
169.75 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2011

And those are all Seasons BEST scores (except for Gold, who won the only JGP she entered). Here are some others:

172.51 LIPNITSKAYA, JGP Poland
159.95 SOTNIKOVA, Cup of China
157.61 SHELEPEN, JGP Roumania
153.40 SHELEPEN, JGP Latvia
149.87 KOROBEYNIKOVA, JGP Roumania
139.62 KOROBEYNIKOVA, JGP Australia

The Russian girls are human beings just like anyone else.

Sylvia
02-08-2012, 03:46 PM
A few more junior international scores from this season...

Top 4 ladies at JGP Final in December 2011:
1 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS 179.73 1 1
2 Polina SHELEPEN RUS 162.34 2 2
3 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA RUS 151.18 5 3
4 Zijun LI CHN 146.53 6 4

Top 3 ladies at Youth Olympic Games (January 2012):
1 TUKTAMISHEVA Elizaveta RUS 173.10 1 1
2 SOTNIKOVA Adelina RUS 159.08 2 3
3 LI Zijun CHN 157.70 3 2


Did I understand correctly that Liza won't go to Junior worlds because she is too tired?
Russia named their Junior World team ladies as of February 8: Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva, and Julia Lipnitskaia. I assume Polina Shelepen is the first alternate and will be ready to go, if needed.

Judge Dred
02-08-2012, 05:17 PM
Those are all inflated Nationals scores

They may not be ISU scores, but the fact of the matter is they are their most recent competitions, they are their home nationals, and they are therefore comparable. Gracie would therefore not have medalled. Looking at Gracie's LP from nationals, it certainly would not have won her medal at Russian juniors. The fact that she has a lower score only goes to support that.

love_skate2011
02-08-2012, 05:24 PM
the russian national scoring system is different and don't they have sort of bonus. If Gracie competed there she would have finished second if she skated clean above the 183. mark ahead of Shelepen.

Sylvia
02-08-2012, 05:29 PM
Well I for one am looking forward to see these all talented young ladies compete in the same competition in Minsk later this month! :) Let's hope it will be as exciting as we fans are anticipating!

ETA: I don't believe the Russian nationals scoring system gives out bonus points for certain technical elements (such as triple-triples by the ladies) any more.

UDelpairs2012
02-08-2012, 05:33 PM
Both Liza and Adelina essentially bombed in the long at the Youth Olympics. Wich is a testament to how good Liza is compared to Jr girls...she bombed and still won!

Judge Dred
02-08-2012, 05:41 PM
the russian national scoring system is different and don't they have sort of bonus. If Gracie competed there she would have finished second if she skated clean above the 183. mark ahead of Shelepen.

As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.

Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!

love_skate2011
02-08-2012, 05:49 PM
As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.

Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!

Gracie was not clean on her LP at Nationals but if you compare I know all nationals inflate their scores but if she skated clean in the US scoring she would have reached above the 180 mark and if you compare that in russian results she may have finished 2nd or maybe 3rd.

Badams
02-08-2012, 05:54 PM
I (example, John Kennedy would never have been elected with the name Mortimer Snerd)

That was the name of my very first cat. :) Mortimer Snerd.

UDelpairs2012
02-08-2012, 05:55 PM
As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.

Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!

The only flaw in your reasoning that there is only a slight difference is that Gracie's JGP score is 172.69 and her Nationals winning score is only 6 points higher at 178.92. where as Julia went from 179.73 at the JGPF all the way to 191.92 at nationals that seems a bit extreme!

rfisher
02-08-2012, 06:10 PM
Fortunately, all the speculation will be moot in a couple of weeks when they can skate before the same panel of judges on the same ice. That's what will count.

Judge Dred
02-08-2012, 06:13 PM
The only flaw in your reasoning that there is only a slight difference is that Gracie's JGP score is 172.69 and her Nationals winning score is only 6 points higher at 178.92. where as Julia went from 179.73 at the JGPF all the way to 191.92 at nationals that seems a bit extreme!

If you watch the programs, you will work out why. The main reason is that Gracie's skated much less well at nationals compared to the grand prix. If she had skated as she did at nationals at the grand prix, her score would have been in the mid 160's. The grand prix may have been a one off in which everything went right for her. The consistency problem will always be her main obstacle and that was the problem she came up against again at nationals (which was what happened last season). Big jumps = lack of consistency. Same thing happened to Harding, Bonaly, and most of the other big jumpers. Problem is that that is her main asset at the moment. Its not as if she can scale back for consistency and make up for it with artistry/PCS (like Kostner) as she is not that developed yet in the artistry/PCS department. Unlike the other juniors therefore, all she can do is go for the big jumps and hope for the best

olympic
02-08-2012, 06:14 PM
Fortunately, all the speculation will be moot in a couple of weeks when they can skate before the same panel of judges on the same ice. That's what will count.

But, it's fun to speculate ;)

Anyway, who are your picks to medal? Let us know, so we can all anticipate who will bomb :P

rfisher
02-08-2012, 06:18 PM
But, it's fun to speculate ;)

Anyway, who are your picks to medal? Let us know, so we can all anticipate who will bomb :P

Just for that: Gold for Gold :EVILLE: mwhahahahahahaha.

I like all 3 of the young Russian skaters equally.

kwanatic
02-08-2012, 06:45 PM
I'd love to see Adelina pull it together and skate well. She had a flawed but solid debut on the GP (3rd in both of her assignments) before winning nationals and then bombing at the YOG but finishing 2nd. It's been a good year for her medal-wise, but last year she was undefeated so it's a bit off of her standard. Her confidence seems to have taken a hit but I really hope she gets it back. She is my favorite of the Russian ladies: gorgeous lines and presentation, extension, attitude, huge jumps and that certain spark. I'm dying to see her get some better choreography though (her SP is very nice but her LP leaves a lot to be desired).

If she nails her jumps, she's pretty much unbeatable. Liza has better lutz technique but Adelina's jumps are much bigger, her spins are better, her ice coverage is better and she leaves a better overall impression on the ice. Julia's difficulty isn't as high nor are her skating skills...but in another year or two, she'd be the main challenger for Adelina (though I hope Julia ditches the Morosov choreography and finds someone else).

Just like last year, this year's jr worlds will be more entertaining than senior worlds IMO. The talent is so deep on the junior level: the Russian Triumvirate (Adelina, Liza, Julia), Zijun Li of China is wonderful (great speed, tight jumps with good ice coverage, the best spins in the field behind Julia, and a lovely lyrical style to her skating); then we have the famed Gracie Gold as well.

The competition is going to be fierce. I have no idea who will medal but I'd like to see Adelina and Zijun on the podium...no telling how it will shake out though.