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olympic
01-30-2012, 04:53 PM
Now that Nationals is over, I rank it this way -

1. Ice Dance - should happen barring any out of the ordinary acts of G-d! D/W will get at least Silver and S/S have improved from the GP season and will in a worst - case scenario finish around 6th

2. Men - 50/50. Abbott and Rippon are probably the best bet the US could ever muster. Abbott's renewal and beautiful skating make him a legitimate medal threat. But, Abbott would have to medal and Rippon would need a top 10 finish. Doable, but not certain. The men are just so deep in talent this quadrennium!

3. Ladies - 50/50. Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men, but Czisny and Wagner didn't quite bring it the way Abbott and Rippon did at Nats. With Miki and Yu Na out, the way should be clearer but Czisny's hiccups during the season and Wagner still needing a touch more refinement and reputation make it questionable. Alissa could skate par for the course and get around 4th behind Mao, Carolina and Akiko. Then Ashley could get 9th. They probably can do it, but who knows ... predicting ladiezzzz drives me nuts!


4. Pairs - Probably not. Depth as in the Men's field means D/C and M/B won't do it. M/B needs more exposure as it is.

berthesghost
01-30-2012, 05:08 PM
Dance is a given. D/w should be no lower than 2nd and its hard to believe s/s will drop from 3rd to 12th.

Men's is the likeliest to regain that 3rd spot, but rippon is a total wild card. Can he make top 10 is the big question.

Ladies is as doomful as ever. Possible, but not all that probable IMO.

Paris, no way no how. Two new inexperienced teams? Not gonna happen.

museksk8r
01-30-2012, 05:35 PM
3 spots is certainly possible in all the US disciplines except pairs. The US pairs need much more finesse than they currently display to guarantee 3 spots.

Ashley and Alissa need a combination of 6th and 7th, 5th and 8th, 4th and 9th; not impossible for the two of them to do.

genevieve
01-30-2012, 05:55 PM
Dance - a given

Men - extremely likely

Ladiez - "Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men" really? We haven't had 3 ladies' spots in several years. I think it's very doable, but it's been a hard row to hoe for our ladies for quite a while.

Pairs - :rofl: :rofl: god love'em. (I do hope that MBMB are able to get some decent international experience from this)

Jammers
01-30-2012, 07:10 PM
It's really a disgrace that the Ladies haven't had 3 spots since 2008. What are we Canada?

museksk8r
01-30-2012, 07:12 PM
It's really a disgrace that the Ladies haven't had 3 spots since 2008. What are we Canada?

Not even close. The US would never consider deciding not to send an age-eligible, healthy National Champion to compete at Worlds.

olympic
01-30-2012, 07:25 PM
...Men - extremely likely

Ladiez - "Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men" really? We haven't had 3 ladies' spots in several years. I think it's very doable, but it's been a hard row to hoe for our ladies for quite a while.



Just curious. Why do you think it's 'extremely likely' the US will get 3 spots back for the Men?

Re ladies, the field is not that deep this year: Yu Na, Lepisto and Miki are out, the Russian babies are not age eligible, the Sr. Russian ladies didn't really do that well at Euros and they are leaving home some of their better talent (Biryukova, Shelepen). Kanako is really up and down, Kiira is also not skating all that hot. It just seems that on paper, Alissa and Ashley should be able to do it. But, my post is cautious due to the freakish events of the past 2 World championships

judgejudy27
01-30-2012, 08:00 PM
Dance- Yes

Men- Good chance, but both Abbott and Rippon are unpredictable. Abbott has to shoot for a medal which he is capable of but wont attain without skating very well. Rippon can shoot for a top 7 or so. If one or both underperform though, it wont happen.

Ladies- Average chance. Czisny like Abbott is capable of medaling, but seems less likely than him to rise to that occasion right now. Wagner's chances are about as iffy as Rippon I would say.

Pairs- No. Just no.

TwizzlerS
01-30-2012, 08:36 PM
ITA with everyone about Dance and Pairs.

The problem with predicting Men and Ladies is that in the first case, the US team is stronger but so is the field. In the latter, the US team is weaker and so is the field. I'm not sure, but I think kind of levels the playing field. That is, the chances of securing 3 slots next year are about the same for both Men and Ladies.

judgejudy27
01-30-2012, 08:48 PM
I think the men and ladies are totally in the hands of the U.S skaters though in that if all 4 do what they are capable of, I cant imagine them not getting 3 spots back. If only 1 of 2 in each do, then it is dicey.

moebius
01-30-2012, 11:18 PM
Just because a skater hasn't been skating well doesn't mean that they won't do well at Worlds and vice versa.

Jammers
01-31-2012, 12:06 AM
I still can't believe how Mirai and Rachael blew it in 2010. Between the two of them they had only 7 combined after the SP and only had to skate decently in the LP to get 13 or less to get those 3 spots back. It really was inexcusable.

RD
01-31-2012, 12:20 AM
I think dance should be a given barring injuries, etc...I don't know about men- but not pairs or ladies.


Re ladies, the field is not that deep this year: Yu Na, Lepisto and Miki are out, the Russian babies are not age eligible, the Sr. Russian ladies didn't really do that well at Euros and they are leaving home some of their better talent (Biryukova, Shelepen). Kanako is really up and down, Kiira is also not skating all that hot.

But Czisny hasn't been skating well either. That's a MAJOR problem for us because Wagner is probably ~6th at best, and if she has an off-night she could easily be 10th or lower. Czisny OTOH can contend for a medal if she hits.


I still can't believe how Mirai and Rachael blew it in 2010. Between the two of them they had only 7 combined after the SP and only had to skate decently in the LP to get 13 or less to get those 3 spots back. It really was inexcusable.

I know. And there was tibiagate last year. Sometimes one gets the feeling it's just not meant to be.

judgejudy27
01-31-2012, 12:28 AM
Rachael was never going to skate well enough to give the U.S 3 spots back last year. Sending her to Worlds over Nagasu was a huge mistake, and I say that even seeing how Nagasu has flamed out this season.

RD
01-31-2012, 12:40 AM
^ I think healthy Flatt could have managed 8th. Still, the past is in the past and the present is how Czisny and Wagner are going to do. At least let's see how the latter does at 4CCs...then we might have a better idea.