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krenseby
01-29-2012, 11:47 PM
Do you guys think it's possible for Ashley to get good scores at this year's Worlds? It would be sad if she would skate brilliantly and yet be scored poorly! I don't think she deserves to be treated as damaged goods, as someone unworthy of contending for a top 5 finish.

Marco
01-29-2012, 11:55 PM
Which is why it is smart to send her to 4CCs for further exposure, some PCS and ISU points accumulation, and hopefully an ISU championship medal.

At Worlds, I don't expect her to beat Asada, Suzuki and Kostner. As for the rest, Czisny, the Russians and Korpi have been up and down, so Wagner can certainly contend for a top 5. But she has to be absolutely spot on and bring out the big tricks. A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. She is no Asada.

If all goes well for her, she should expect mid 7s for PCS as maximum.

BittyBug
01-30-2012, 12:04 AM
A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. :huh: Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."

euterpe
01-30-2012, 12:14 AM
At Worlds, I don't expect her to beat Asada, Suzuki and Kostner. As for the rest, Czisny, the Russians and Korpi have been up and down, so Wagner can certainly contend for a top 5. But she has to be absolutely spot on and bring out the big tricks. A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. She is no Asada.

If all goes well for her, she should expect mid 7s for PCS as maximum.

Here's what Ashley scored in her bronze-medal winning FS at SC:
110.98 56.50 55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18

1.8 points wouldn't necessarily bury her, but it could be enough to leave her out of the final group for FS.

However, Ashley hasn't been trying any 3/3s this season. If she's still double-footing her jumps, I'd be concerned that 3/3 attempts would result in URs, downgrades or even falls. She already is getting dinged for flutzing.

Nomad
01-30-2012, 12:14 AM
I think if she puts two clean skates together she could possibly make the top five. I hope that winning the national title will give her the confidence to do that.

judgejudy27
01-30-2012, 12:18 AM
International judges dont really like her up to now to be honest. Even her good results ae with mediocre scores and others performing poorly. However up until this year she was frequently underrated by National judges even when she skated fairly well, and that changed this year. Hopefully as U.S Champ she has a whole new street cred and if she can back it up with performance will be rewarded.

newbatgirl
01-30-2012, 12:21 AM
Ladies at Worlds can be a splatfest. I don't think you can say that anyone who has medaled on the GP is truly out of the top five range. Anything can happen. Crossing my fingers that Ashley and Alissa skate as cleanly as possible, and score well enough to earn three spots.

judgejudy27
01-30-2012, 12:22 AM
I still believe Alissa can definitely medal if she skates cleanly. Heck she beat a good Kostner at Skate America with falls and majors errors, although that was probably only due it being in the U.S.

Proustable
01-30-2012, 12:25 AM
Depends. Can she skate well at Worlds?

krenseby
01-30-2012, 12:56 AM
Depends. Can she skate well at Worlds?

I meant assuming that she skates either her best or really well, will that get her somewhere? Will the judges reward her for skating well?

aliceanne
01-30-2012, 01:06 AM
She will if she follows her plan to:

1. Add a triple/triple to her SP
2. Not get any edge calls
3. Land her triples cleanly on one foot.
4. Not fall

In the past number 3 has been the biggest challenge. Even at the 2010 Nationals where she pulled up from 12th to third, she landed most of her jumps with her feet still crossed. This year I only noticed that one jump where she scraped her foot checking out.

As to whether she will medal will depend on how some of the others skate. There are better jumpers and better artistic skaters. I thought her choreography was a little off in the long. In the middle right where the music swells to it's most dramatic crescendo it appears she takes a rest break.

berthesghost
01-30-2012, 01:19 AM
Do you guys think it's possible for Ashley to get good scores at this year's Worlds? It would be sad if she would skate brilliantly and yet be scored poorly! I don't think she deserves to be treated as damaged goods, as someone unworthy of contending for a top 5 finish.Seriously, the excuses and "wuz robbed" claims have stared already, and she hasn't even bought her plane ticket yet. :rolleyes:

I'm off to marinate my hat, as I'll be eating it should Ashley "skates brilliantly" at worlds. :lol: sorry, but nothing in her 5 years of pretty consistant skating has shown anything of kind will happen.

Nomad
01-30-2012, 01:23 AM
I think she can. And I think that if she does, she'll get good marks - she's never finished lower than 5th at any GP, which is more than a lot of the ladiezz can say. Nobody's been consistent this year; Asada, Suzuki, and Koster look good for the podium, but a recharged Alissa or Leonova could be a spoiler. As for the other ladies, Korpi, Gedevanishvili, Korobeinykova or even Makarova could keep her out the top five. Or not. she really needs to go out there and hit everything.

iarispiralllyof
01-30-2012, 01:25 AM
i'm rooting for her. I think her spiral is the highlight of her black swan lp. her layback is pretty. i think the ending was anticlimactic though

judgejudy27
01-30-2012, 01:25 AM
As to whether she will medal will depend on how some of the others skate. There are better jumpers and better artistic skaters.

Better spinners too. Better basic skaters. I like Ashley and was thrilled she won Nationals but she really isnt good enough to control her own destiny vs the Worlds best even if she were more liked by the judges. She isnt one of the very best if they all have their best day. She isnt a Czisny or Nagasu really. Hopefully she can have one of her best days, and capatilize if some of the better skaters dont.