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Wyliefan
01-30-2012, 04:18 AM
Can she really lose the double-foots in time? I wonder. You all know how I uber her, but I will admit that that double-foot has dogged her for AGES. I'm glad she's trying to fix it, but it may take more time than she's got before Worlds.

IceAlisa
01-30-2012, 04:19 AM
Yes, I too think it's a lot to accomplish in a short time but at least she is headed in the right direction and is aware of the work to be done.

Marco
01-30-2012, 04:26 AM
Wagner can be as high as fifth or as low as tenth.

Barring major disasters, Kostner, Asada, Suzuki and Czisny will beat her.

She will pretty much have comparable PCS and GOE to Leonova, Korpi, Elene G and Murakami (i.e. low to mid 7s). Between the five of them the placements will really depend on the night.

Polina K is rather consistent but her PCS is the lowest, being the third Russian. I am not worried about her beating Wagner. Nor do I worry about Makarova or Phanuef (or Lacoste) going clean.

If Wagner places in the lower half of the top ten, she will need Czisny to medal in order for US to retain that spot - which isn't impossible, but difficult given how Czisny has skated so far this season.

skfan
01-30-2012, 04:33 AM
Wagner can be as high as fifth or as low as tenth.

Barring major disasters, Kostner, Asada, Suzuki and Czisny will beat her.

She will pretty much have comparable PCS and GOE to Leonova, Korpi, Elene G and Murakami (i.e. low to mid 7s). Between the five of them the placements will really depend on the night.

Polina K is rather consistent but her PCS is the lowest, being the third Russian. I am not worried about her beating Wagner. Nor do I worry about Makarova or Phanuef (or Lacoste) going clean.

If Wagner places in the lower half of the top ten, she will need Czisny to medal in order for US to retain that spot - which isn't impossible, but difficult given how Czisny has skated so far this season.


just to make it clear, i am pro-wagner--i want ashley on the world team because she's the american with the prettiest layback position. but you really think she's got the same PCS potential as korpi? if korpi is clean, korpi is going to get kostner level PCS. even if ashley is clean with 3f-3t in the short. if ashley has the same PCS as leonova, it'll mean polina K has taken over as russia's #1, and i'm guessing with polina's much bigger (when successful) 3f-3t vs ashley's yet-to-be-seen 3f-3t (where i'll be praying for a tech specialist not to detect a two-footed landing or UR), polina could get better PCS than ashley too.

i only see murakami and elene G in the ashley ballpark for PCS. i want to be optimistic, really, but i'm not seeing it.

Marco
01-30-2012, 05:04 AM
Korpi, Elene G and Leonova all beat Wagner on PCS at NHK Trophy 3 months ago. However, the scoring was pretty close.

If Wagner could medal at 4CCs and deliver a strong performance, her PCS can definitely catch up.

euterpe
01-30-2012, 05:30 AM
Wagner's PCS scores are lower than Leonova, Korpi and Gedevanishvili. The only skater she outranked consistently in PCS this season is Murakami.

61.82 7.64 7.50 7.79 7.75 7.96 LEONOVA Worlds 2011
61.13 7.68 7.46 7.64 7.64 7.79 CZISNY Worlds 2011
60.08 7.54 7.25 7.54 7.61 7.61 MAKAROVA Worlds 2011
60.01 7.46 7.18 7.61 7.57 7.68 LEONOVA CoR
59.94 7.61 7.32 7.50 7.46 7.57 ASADA Worlds 2011
58.86 7.32 7.07 7.43 7.43 7.54 KORPI Euros
58.62 7.39 7.11 7.32 7.39 7.43 KORPI CoR
58.42 7.54 6.86 7.43 7.32 7.36 LEONOVA NHK
58.06 7.32 6.93 7.29 7.32 7.43 KORPI Worlds 2011
57.61 7.32 6.86 7.36 7.21 7.25 GEDEVANISHVILI Euros
57.60 7.14 7.00 7.11 7.39 7.36 KORPI NHK
56.62 7.14 6.89 7.11 7.04 7.21 MURAKAMI Worlds 2011
56.33 7.32 6.75 7.07 7.00 7.07 GEDEVANISHVILI NHK
55.71 7.04 6.57 7.11 6.96 7.14 LEONOVA Euros
55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18 WAGNER SC
55.32 7.04 6.61 7.04 7.00 6.89 WAGNER NHK
54.01 6.96 6.61 6.61 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI CoC
53.88 7.04 6.25 6.82 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI TEB
52.12 6.68 6.21 6.50 6.57 6.61 LEONOVA SC
50.97 6.64 6.04 6.43 6.29 6.46 GEDEVANISHVILI Worlds 2011
49.46 6.39 5.96 6.29 6.14 6.14 GEDEVANISHVILI SA

Frau Muller
01-30-2012, 12:55 PM
The "2-foot issue" is so passe. OF COURSE, Ashley can and will score very high at Worlds. Ashley will be the first US lady to make podium at Worlds since 2006.

KingaG
01-30-2012, 03:11 PM
She will be buried in PCS and most likely GOEs too. Unless you have won some sort of World / Euro / 4CC / GPF medal, you won't be taken seriously with just a 3/2 in the short. This is as much reputational judging as it is the fact that she just isn't in the same league as Asada, Suzuki or Czisny (or Nagasu) who do 3/2s in the short.

Plus, her main competition for placement will come from the B list contenders (Russians, Korpi, Murakami etc) and they mostly do 3/3s in the short and have already had some sort of Euro / GPF medal. Wagner will either need to medal or skate really well at 4CCs or do a 3/3 in the short to even level with them.

I disagree with you. Is Ashley not in the same league as Nagasu?? Im sorry, but Nagasu has very blant programs this season and does not perform well. How is Ashley out of her league? Do Nationals tell you something?

When it comes to not being in the same league with others - I think it is a stretch (except of Mao and Carolina, maybe). All ladies have strenghts and weaknesses. Ashley has a beautiful layback, she is fast (although her basic are not great), energetic and has interesting programs this season. She also shows great attitude. And 3/3 that other ladies have?? Well, how many of them perform them clean when it really matters?? I sense that she has potential to bring the house down, if she skates clean. Antyhing can happen in ladies skating, nothing is written in the stone.
Also, if Korpi and Czisny get the 'pretty bonus' I don't see the reason why Ashley shouldn't :). She is very beautiful.



On a shallow note I always like her outfits, she'd had some real pretty dresses over the years.

I agree. She has the best outfits out there.

modern_muslimah
01-30-2012, 03:37 PM
I disagree with you. Is Ashley not in the same league as Nagasu?? Im sorry, but Nagasu has very blant programs this season and does not perform well. How is Ashley out of her league? Do Nationals tell you something?

When it comes to not being in the same league with others - I think it is a stretch (except of Mao and Carolina, maybe). All ladies have strenghts and weaknesses. Ashley has a beautiful layback, she is fast (although her basic are not great), energetic and has interesting programs this season. She also shows great attitude. And 3/3 that other ladies have?? Well, how many of them perform them clean when it really matters?? I sense that she has potential to bring the house down, if she skates clean. Antyhing can happen in ladies skating, nothing is written in the stone.
Also, if Korpi and Czisny get the 'pretty bonus' I don't see the reason why Ashley shouldn't :). She is very beautiful.

The thing with Ashley is that she is a bit like Tonia Kwiakowski. They're both very good skaters who can easily get into the top ten but they're not extraordinary skaters who can easily make it into top five on their own. Ashley will need help from other more talented skaters to make it into the top five. Nothing about Ashley's skating (besides her attack) really stands out at the moment. Alissa has great spins, Kiira has really nice basics, Leonova has just as much attack as Ashley along with a consistent 3-3, Suzuki also has very good basics, speed and a 3-3. Even Nagasu has more speed, better spins and jumps. Now, if any of these skaters don't skate up to their best, then Wagner can beat them. I think that was the lesson learned from Nationals. Ashley was able to win because she was mostly clean in both segments while Alissa made too many mistakes. I won't even get into Nagasu's skating. I don't think the less was that Wagner is equal or better than either.

wonderlen
01-30-2012, 03:46 PM
She has to skate like this again and hopefully win silver or bronze at 4CC and rep up her reputation score. She needs to score over 115+ at 4CC and go from there.

At world who knows. Neither Mao, Suzuki or Koster are hardly running away with the grand slam score. And she needs to land all ther 7 triples and clean, and if a few of the other ladies flater, she might be lucky enough for bronze. She def have to make up the 5-7 points PCS disavantage form both SP+LP some how.

NinjaTurtles
01-30-2012, 03:52 PM
Yes, I too think it's a lot to accomplish in a short time but at least she is headed in the right direction and is aware of the work to be done.

Yes, I saw that brief interview as well and noted her very quick and straight response. She is certainly cognizant of her current deficiencies / what she needs to have to contend internationally.

FunnyBut
01-30-2012, 03:56 PM
I'll go against the grain and say she should go conservative. Do what she can do clean, don't even try a 3-3, it's inviting downgrades and two-footing.

Asada and Kostner will beat her with even subpar skates. Suzuki is consistently better than her. Korpi, Leonova, Olyesia 1 and Olyesia 2 will like like beat her with half-decent skates, it's a combination of higher quality and more judges' respect. (though probably 2 of these will implode herself out of contention). Someone else like Gede or Murakami also has a decent shot at finishing ahead of her. So I think a medal is highly unlikely. She should instead aim for a clean 5-7th place finish, and hope Oleysia1 brings her least fragile self so the two of them can cobble together 3-spots qualification.

Ozzisk8tr
01-30-2012, 03:56 PM
I thought Ashley's Black Swan was supposed to be "edgy". Didn't she say that about her LP earlier in the season? I don't find the current program to be memorable at all. And of course Ashley did the dreaded circling-in-one-place-on-the-toepicks move that every Swan Lake program has.

I'm still waiting for someone to do the Running Man and Roger Rabbits in a Swan Lake program, or at least a few can-can kicks. I wont hold my breath waiting though. ;)

olympic
01-30-2012, 04:18 PM
Ashley's checklist -

1- UR: Good John Nicks has tightened her jumps. This has helped her rotate her jumps and avoid the UR for the most part.

2- 2-footing: Fair The tightening has limited the 2-footing, but hasn't eliminated it. Though IMO, the 3 jumps she 2-footed at Nats in the LP were mostly due to the pressure she (and others) put on herself to finally deliver and finish in the top 2. Also, it was her first 2x-3t this season, so additionally there was probably some uncertainty on that particular element.

3- Pops: Not an issue The pop on the 3sal was a blip in her LP at nats. She attacks and doesn't really ever pull back IMO, won't be an issue going forward.

4- Flutz: poor She won't fix it and probably never will. She and Mr. Nicks should just keep it the way it is and expect the negative GOE. A flutz is still worth a little more than another clean 2x though, right?

I'm very happy she FINALLY got rid of the 3z in the SP. Good strategy!

Now, the elements she might want to tinker with are -

1- SP: 3f-3t in the SP, along with the 3l and 2x. Just go for it! This will boost her SP, where she lags the big ladies by a significant (but not overwhelming)point gap. She was attempting it with worse technique under Priscilla Hill.

2- LP: She already has 7 triples and a 2x, repeating the 3f and 3l. She doesn't need anything additional. She might want to think about moving the 3 jump combo to the 2d half of the program. Additionally, she might want to play with FW and her spins to achieve LV4.

Good, high PCS will only come from international judges if she skates lights-out, forcing them to give it to her

taf2002
01-30-2012, 04:30 PM
I'll go against the grain and say she should go conservative. Do what she can do clean, don't even try a 3-3, it's inviting downgrades and two-footing.

Asada and Kostner will beat her with even subpar skates. Suzuki is consistently better than her. Korpi, Leonova, Olyesia 1 and Olyesia 2 will like like beat her with half-decent skates, it's a combination of higher quality and more judges' respect. (though probably 2 of these will implode herself out of contention). Someone else like Gede or Murakami also has a decent shot at finishing ahead of her. So I think a medal is highly unlikely. She should instead aim for a clean 5-7th place finish, and hope Oleysia1 brings her least fragile self so the two of them can cobble together 3-spots qualification.

I agree. She should shoot for top 10 & hope Alissa can make the top 3. Thinking she's in medal contention is asking for trouble. She's not. (I would like to be able to eat my words.)