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View Full Version : Can Ashley actually score well at Worlds?



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orbitz
01-30-2012, 01:41 AM
I thought Ashley's Black Swan was supposed to be "edgy". Didn't she say that about her LP earlier in the season? I don't find the current program to be memorable at all. And of course Ashley did the dreaded circling-in-one-place-on-the-toepicks move that every Swan Lake program has.

smarts1
01-30-2012, 01:47 AM
Well, she better than Leonova in my book, so if she beats Leonova, I'm going to be perfectly happy. :)

IceAlisa
01-30-2012, 01:54 AM
I think that if she takes care of the 2-footing issue and skates clean, I see no reason why she wouldn't make top 5. With some help from the big guns she could medal.

Polymer Bob
01-30-2012, 01:57 AM
:huh: Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."

This is an excellent point that we need to understand. The penalty for a fall is one point? Nonsense. If Jeremy had fallen 3 times, would his score be just 3 points lower? No. Well landed jumps have a psychological effect on the judges that we don't fully comprehend. When a skater lands clean, hard jumps, the spirals look prettier, the spins look faster, all other elements just look nicer.

Trust me, it's not just 1.8 points.

sequins
01-30-2012, 02:05 AM
I like Ashley, she seems like a a sweetheart and was happy for her this weekend. I think with the women anything can happen. If she skates well I don't see why she wouldn't place well and if she skates well that's really all that matters and I think she'd be happy with that regardless of the judges. On a shallow note I always like her outfits, she'd had some real pretty dresses over the years.

chipso1
01-30-2012, 02:06 AM
I'm not sure if she can medal, but I think top 6 is certainly within her grasp. She's armed with two great programs this season, and I think being the U.S. champion will help boost her confidence even more.

modern_muslimah
01-30-2012, 02:07 AM
I think she can easily make the top ten if she skates well. Top five won't easy for her. She doesn't have the same rep with judges that Alissa has and Mao, Carolina, Kiira, Akiko, even Alena will all go into the WC with a better rep than Ashley. Still, none of those skaters is the model of consistency so if Ashley skates cleanly (gets rid of the two foot landings, rotates all her jumps), then I think she has a good chance of getting into the top five. I don't think all of those skaters will skate well in Nice, which may open the door for Ashley. Still, Ashley has to be able to handle the pressure too.

smarts1
01-30-2012, 02:12 AM
This is an excellent point that we need to understand. The penalty for a fall is one point? Nonsense. If Jeremy had fallen 3 times, would his score be just 3 points lower? No. Well landed jumps have a psychological effect on the judges that we don't fully comprehend. When a skater lands clean, hard jumps, the spirals look prettier, the spins look faster, all other elements just look nicer.

Trust me, it's not just 1.8 points.

Not for skaters like Carolina or Patrick...

Marco
01-30-2012, 02:21 AM
:huh: Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."

She will be buried in PCS and most likely GOEs too. Unless you have won some sort of World / Euro / 4CC / GPF medal, you won't be taken seriously with just a 3/2 in the short. This is as much reputational judging as it is the fact that she just isn't in the same league as Asada, Suzuki or Czisny (or Nagasu) who do 3/2s in the short.

Plus, her main competition for placement will come from the B list contenders (Russians, Korpi, Murakami etc) and they mostly do 3/3s in the short and have already had some sort of Euro / GPF medal. Wagner will either need to medal or skate really well at 4CCs or do a 3/3 in the short to even level with them.

Polymer Bob
01-30-2012, 02:36 AM
I have mixed feelings about sending Ashley to 4CC. Alissa was U.S. champ in 2009. She went to 4CC and got beat by 2 other Americans. Then she accomplished the exact same feat last year. If Ashley gets beat by one or both U.S. ladies, that could diminish her in the eyes of ISU judges.

Both of Ashley's team mates have short program triple-triples. Agnes would be deadly if she skates clean, and Caroline has a mysterious ability to do better in ISU events than national events.

skfan
01-30-2012, 02:54 AM
I have mixed feelings about sending Ashley to 4CC. Alissa was U.S. champ in 2009. She went to 4CC and got beat by 2 other Americans. Then she accomplished the exact same feat last year. If Ashley gets beat by one or both U.S. ladies, that could diminish her in the eyes of ISU judges.

Both of Ashley's team mates have short program triple-triples. Agnes would be deadly if she skates clean, and Caroline has a mysterious ability to do better in ISU events than national events.


has caroline really scored better at internationals than at home recently? i thought she hasn't been scored well in either places until this year's nationals.

as for 4CC, i am happy with the ladies team (dance is another story), because if you are the USFS you want to do your best to support a big-jumper like agnes--you want her to have a chance for redemption as early as possible. ok, *i* want her to, because she looked so devastated on tv.

i doubt very much that ashley will finish behind both caroline and agnes at 4CC.

Polymer Bob
01-30-2012, 03:11 AM
i doubt very much that ashley will finish behind both caroline and agnes at 4CC.

Maybe not both, but even one could reduce her stature in the eyes of the ISU judges. The flip side of course is that if Ashley does very well, that could raise her stature.

judgejudy27
01-30-2012, 03:21 AM
I would be surprised if Ashley isnt the top American at 4CCs. She hasnt had a bad skate all year, Agnes hasnt had a good long program all year (heck her only good short was at Nationals), and Caroline is a ways away from beating her at this point still. It is not like the international judges think a whole lot of her thus far anyway. Things can only get better if she does another event and skates well again, espcecialy coming off her U.S title.

Louis
01-30-2012, 03:26 AM
As Terry Gannon would say, she won't control her own destiny.

Kostner, the 3 Russians, the 3 Japanese, Gedevanishvili, whichever of Phaneuf or Lacoste goes, Korpi, Czisny, and possibly others all have the potential to score above Wagner with a good skate. They all have equal to (much) better basic skating technique.

Let's say HALF of the above hit. That still leaves her in seventh place with a clean or close-to-clean skate. If she two-foots like she did at Nationals, much lower.

Wagner played her cards right at Nationals, but Worlds will require a bigger effort. IMO, she has to try for 3F+3T in the short and 3F+3T and 2A+3T in the free skate if she has any chance of top five. The math won't work any other way.

IceAlisa
01-30-2012, 04:15 AM
Saw a blip on Ashley interviewed about her win and plans for Worlds. She said she knows she needs a 3/3 for the SP, lose the edge call and the 2 footed landings. She knows. Hopefully, she can improve.