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Rochelle
01-31-2012, 07:11 PM
Zaitsev/Stevens might not move up to Junior level for the next season -- no one will know until early summer.

They were first year Novice's this year, and a bit young compared to the other medalists (12 and he just turned 18 a couple weeks ago). They had some easier throws and SBS jumps compared to the other Novice medalists. They could gain the more difficult jumps needed in junior by summer, or may need an extra season. Since they're coached by S. Zaitsev, I would expect them to follow a similar path that Andrews/Anderson followed (2 years at Novice -- finishing in the middle of the pack the first year, and won their second year), before moving on to Juniors. Give "Divette & Utah" some time, if they need it. :)

mineko
03-05-2012, 10:22 AM
I know this is an old thread, but both US jr nationals and JWC have just concluded. We now know the number of JGP slots the US receive, so I figured that this might be a good time to revive this thread. ;)

Incidentally, if my math is correct, US will receive the maximum slots allowed to each discipline, and the highest number of JGP slots because of the outstanding results our young representatives produced (Yes, we get more than Russia, Japan & China!) Well done, guys! :respec:

First the number of available JGP slots for the US jr skaters based on the JWC results (Men - silver & bronze; Ladies - silver; Ice Dance - bronze; Pairs - 4th):

Men: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
Ladies: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
Ice Dance: 15 slots (2 couples per event and 3 couples for the host country event);
Pairs: 12 slots* (3 pairs per event) - Pairs are contested only among four out of seven JGP events.

* I am assuming the maximum pair slots we can get is 12, rather than 13 pairs, since the ISU rules for the host country is 3 slots even if the US sponsor a pair event.

Since I follow ice dancing the closest, I will start with that particular discipline, and perhaps posters interested in other disciplines can fill out singles and pairs slots. ;)

Ice Dance:

1. Loraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter,
2. the Parsons siblings,
3. Madeline Heritage/Nathaniel Fast, and
4. Kaitlin Hawayek/Michael Bramante (3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th at nationals)
are very likely to receive at least one assignment each. They are also all finishing up the first season as juniors. The highest finish at this season's JGP among this group were the 4th (H/B), and 5th (H/F), so they all have room for improving their international standings.

Banacorsi/Mager, and Gamelins are aged out as it was stated previously. Aldridge/Eason, though technically they are eligible to be in junior one more year, I am not certain if they wish, given that they pracitically achieved all off their season's goals (medalling both JGP events, skating at JGPF; us champions, and medalling at JWR).

5. The Novice national champtions, Holly Moore (16)/Daniel Klaber (18) are very likely to move up to junior and will receive a JGP assignment.
6. The Novice silver medalists, Whitney Miller (13) /Kyle McMillan (14) are an interesting case. They are still quite young, and the USFSA in general is disinclined to send very young stakers for oversea competitions. However, in spite of their age, M/M finished only 1.4 point behind the champions (109.53 vs. 108.13). Therefore, if M/M choose to move up to jr, they have a very good chance to receive an assignment.

I am also hoping that the US sends more ice dance teams to JGP competitions for the upcoming season than the current season. That is, although USFSA in 2011-2012 season was allowed to send the maximum of 14 teams, USFSA used up only 10 slots (a total of 7 teams with the top three finishing teams, Aldridge/Eaton, Banacorsi/Mager, and Hawayek/Bramante being assigned twice.)

I understand the rational for sending only those teams that have chance to earn the JGPF entry to be sent twice, presumably due to economic considerations. Given the depth and breadth of US ice dancing field, I would really like to see more teams with international exposure, especially since we are hosting one event this year with lesser cost for travelling.

P.S.: The number of slots the US receive depends on the assumption that ISU does not change rules over the summer, which, as we know, is no certain matter. :rolleyes:

Sylvia
03-05-2012, 03:58 PM
Men: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
Ladies: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
Ice Dance: 15 slots (2 couples per event and 3 couples for the host country event);
Pairs: 12 slots* (3 pairs per event) - Pairs are contested only among four out of seven JGP events.

* I am assuming the maximum pair slots we can get is 12, rather than 13 pairs, since the ISU rules for the host country is 3 slots even if the US sponsor a pair event.
The current rule (published in the 2010-11 JGP Announcement) says that "Concerning the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pair’s event." However, I assume USFS' budget for the Lake Placid JGP as well as the number of pairs they feel are "JGP worthy" will determine if more than 3 pairs are sent.


Aldridge/Eason, though technically they are eligible to be in junior one more year, I am not certain if they wish, given that they pracitically achieved all off their season's goals (medalling both JGP events, skating at JGPF; us champions, and medalling at JWR).
My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

ETA: Two more age-eligible teams in Junior from 2012 Nationals are Pogrebinsky/Gudis (J8) who were included in the ISP this season, and Mancini/Brooks (J9) who had 1 JGP. The male partners in the Junior teams of Bertsch/Kaplun (J7) and Howe/Jahnke (J10) have turned 21 so have aged out.

Tammi
03-05-2012, 04:10 PM
My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.Definitely wise to wait and see what changes (if any) there will be to GP selections this upcoming season. I didn't have time to look before responding here, but I'm fairly certain that JW and JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed a GP spot. With the ISU dropping the number of dance teams at GP's, they would probably need to rely on being a host pick for SA or getting a Senior B. Might be risky giving the depth of senior dance right now for the US. I can definitely see them being strong enough to compete junior internationally and senior at nationals.

mineko
03-05-2012, 04:12 PM
The current rule (published in the 2010-11 JGP Announcement) says that "Concerning the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pairís event." However, I assume USFS' budget for the Lake Placid JGP as well as the number of pairs they feel are "JGP worthy" will determine if more than 3 pairs are sent.

Thank you for clarifying the tricky part of ISU rules. I wondered about this part as you see from the "*" I had placed.


My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

That's interesting. For sure we'll know soon.

mineko
03-05-2012, 08:17 PM
My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.


Definitely wise to wait and see what changes (if any) there will be to GP selections this upcoming season. I didn't have time to look before responding here, but I'm fairly certain that JW and JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed a GP spot. With the ISU dropping the number of dance teams at GP's, they would probably need to rely on being a host pick for SA or getting a Senior B. Might be risky giving the depth of senior dance right now for the US. I can definitely see them being strong enough to compete junior internationally and senior at nationals.

I always learn so much from FSU. Initially I was not certain just how valuable ISU World ranking points were. Now I have much better ides. After the GP eligibility change that occurred during the current season, Tammi, you are absolutely right. JW & JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed of a GP spot. According to "GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(c):

"Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfill the requirements of the minimum score."

In other words, the rules dictate that the only skaters/couples guaranteed for two GP slots are the skaters/couples whose world rankings are from 1 - 12. That's it.

One GP slot is guaranteed for those skaters:

"...with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 will be guaranteed one (1) event..." (GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(b))

Aldridge/Eaton's current World Standing is 33, and their seasonal best scores is the 15th. Their rankings surely will slide downward once the 2012 Senior WC scores are tallied. Given A/E's current standings, it certainly makes better sense to at least wait their decision whether to move up to senior cercuit.

P.S: Thanks, I've corrected Eaton's spelling.

victoriaheidi
03-05-2012, 08:21 PM
For the record, because I've seen it spelled a bunch of different ways in this thread, the team is Alexandra Aldridge and Daniel Eaton.

Sylvia
03-05-2012, 08:21 PM
In other words, the rules dictate that the only skaters/couples guaranteed for two GP slots are the skaters/couples whose world rankings are from 1 - 12. That's it.
No, it's the skaters/teams placing 1-12 at Worlds (according to the 2011-12 GP Announcement).

mineko
03-05-2012, 08:32 PM
No, it's the skaters/teams placing 1-12 at Worlds (according to the 2011-12 GP Announcement).

Ok, you are right. :D

rhumba
03-05-2012, 11:05 PM
delete

euterpe
03-05-2012, 11:56 PM
There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.

barbk
03-06-2012, 12:02 AM
It doesn't look like that hurt the Shibutanis at all. (Though I tend to think that their results were directly affected by the glaring height disproportion much more than their ice dance skills.)

mineko
03-06-2012, 12:43 AM
There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.

Yes, there's always that kind of risk. On the other hand, Lichtman/Copley, the last year's Jr. US champions and JWC bronze medalists, just like A/E are this year, had a rather unremarkable senior debut season (7th finish at COC GP assignment, and the 10th finish at nationals).

You never know. I guess the only thing A/E can control is to focus on improving their skills regardless of which circuit they skate. They also have a world-class choreographer (Camerlengo) and excellent coaching team headed by Angelica Krylova at their corner. ;)

Go Aldridge/Eaton!! :cheer:

Stephanie
03-06-2012, 02:11 AM
Another factor in the decision is that if they want to stay on the JGP they'd also have to stay juniors for nationals since the SDs are now different, unless they prepare two completely different SDs.

My personal opinion is that if they want any shot at the 2014 Olympics they'll have to skate senior at next year's nationals, which would mean skating senior internationally.

euterpe
03-06-2012, 06:28 AM
Do A/E have any real chance at getting a berth to the 2014 Olympics? There are a great many senior teams ahead of them who aren't about to quit before 2014.

2018 would be a more realistic goal for them.