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Proustable
02-24-2012, 04:22 AM
Ehh, I think Phaneuf and Mt/M will be stronger skaters as a result of missing this chance in the end, to be honest. And since neither of them really earned it, I have a hard time falling behind giving it to either of them.

NorthernDancers
02-24-2012, 04:48 AM
Ehh, I think Phaneuf and Mt/M will be stronger skaters as a result of missing this chance in the end, to be honest. And since neither of them really earned it, I have a hard time falling behind giving it to either of them.

Definitely agree that they'll come out stronger. MT/M have only been together 2 seasons, I believe, and I'm sure they will come ready to fight for a spot. Above it was noted they are working on a quad twist and new lifts. Should be interesting. And I hope they can keep working on the in between choreography. That was such a nice improvement this year.

As for Cynthia, I agree she did not earn the spot to world's at Canadians, or over the season. I hope she can find her groove back with Orser.

yfbg722
02-24-2012, 05:00 AM
MT/M have only been together 2 seasons, I believe, and I'm sure they will come ready to fight for a spot. Above it was noted they are working on a quad twist and new lifts.


MT/M have been together 3 years. This was their third nationals. They placed 5th their first year together, 1st last year, 4th this year.

I believe the quad MT mentioned working this year on in an interview was a throw, not the twist.

Thanks to Sui/Han, maybe they'll need both lol :P

NorthernDancers
02-24-2012, 07:52 PM
MT/M have been together 3 years. This was their third nationals. They placed 5th their first year together, 1st last year, 4th this year.

I believe the quad MT mentioned working this year on in an interview was a throw, not the twist.

Thanks to Sui/Han, maybe they'll need both lol :P

Wow....time does fly. I had to google to find pictures from that first season. I didn't even remember what they did then.

I love stats. So here is my analysis of international results since January last year to now, and why I think Skate Canada needs to give their heads a shake if they want even the possibility of 3 teams in London next year.

D/R:
4CC in 2011: 181.79
Worlds in 2011: 173.03

1st GP this year: 174.84 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
2nd GP this year: 176.62
GPF this year: 170.43
4CC this year: 171.76

The 4CC results seem to be an anomoly for them. If we remove that, D/R have not improved significantly season over season, based on these results. It's all within a 3 points of last year's Worlds results. If we leave in the top score, it only makes matters worse.


MT/M:
4CC in 2011: 166.22
Words in 2011: 163.17

1st GP this year: 177.43 (in US)
2nd GP this year: 172.04 (just barely missing the GPF)

Based on these results, on average, MT/M have raised the game by around 10 points, which is real improvement in my mind. I have to think these results would improve further had they gone to 4CC or Worlds. Their assignments were early in the season. They are very evenly matched with D/R.


D/W:
1st GP this year: 158.44 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
2nd GP this year: 150.68
4CC this year: 154.79

Based on these results, and compared to the other two, regardless of the results at Nationals, I am very hard pressed to buy any argument that places this team above MT/M or D/R, or sees them as some kind of even match. Over the course of the season this year, they are about 20 points on average lower than the other teams internationally. I'm sure they will improve. But right now, this is where they are at.


L/S:
4CC last year: 171.73

GP this year: 153.96
4CC this year: 158.44

This team has always struggled with consistency. I really like their programs this year, and I find them the most innovative of the Canadian teams, and not to mention a ton of fun, but internationally they have a habit of struggling. They had a good skate at 4CC last year. But since then they are back to some rough patches. Furthermore, it was reported she had a concussion. Yikes! Right now, I think D/W and L/S are evenly matched, but significantly behind the other 2 teams.

flowerpower
02-24-2012, 10:58 PM
^
So seemingly you are arguing that we can disregard Nationals results, and choose the Worlds team (in each discipline?) based on past international scores. Which competitions would we include, and how far back would we go?

If that's the case, then the fact that Amelie edged out Cynthia at Nationals is irrelevant, and people should be happy that Cynthia was given the opportunity for a skate-off , since if we go back and compare their international histories over the years, we'd conclude that Cynthia has greater potential, based on past successes.

lavenderblue
02-24-2012, 11:13 PM
This season, M-T/M won bronze in two GP events, and lost the tiebreaker with D/R for that GPF berth by a matter of points. D/W finished 5th and 6th in their GP events. M-T/M had an abnormally disastrous outing of two difficult programs at Nationals. D/W had mostly clean outings of two less-difficult programs at Nationals, thereby benefiting from the implosion of the others. We're not comparing apples with apples here simply on a current-season basis, regardless of progress or otherwise from the previous year.

I'm not predicting what will be or what would have been, nor am I putting forward an argument for or against the skate-off notion, but it strikes me as inaccurate to characterize the results at this particularly sloppy Nationals (for teams in addition to M-T/M -- it was brutal out there) as reflecting what would likely happen the other 95% of the time.

julieann
02-24-2012, 11:18 PM
Stats are fun, however.......you can't compare scores from teams, different judges, competitions and seasons (of all things) and expect to base them in any reality.


So seemingly you are arguing that we can disregard Nationals results, and choose the Worlds team (in each discipline?) based on past international scores. Which competitions would we include, and how far back would we go?

If that's the case, then the fact that Amelie edged out Cynthia at Nationals is irrelevant, and people should be happy that Cynthia was given the opportunity for a skate-off , since if we go back and compare their international histories over the years, we'd conclude that Cynthia has greater potential, based on past successes.

Maybe we should put it to a vote on FSU, we can make it a poll :rofl:

NorthernDancers
02-25-2012, 02:02 AM
Normally Nationals should be the decider, especially when teams or skaters marks are in close, reasonable range over the course of the season. That's why I didn't understand the skate-off for ladies. Amelie has come ahead all season, and the marks have been close for awhile. There is very little impact internationally with one vs the other going to world's. Amelie won Nationals and should go to world's.

With pairs, as the stats show, there is an average 20 point spread here. Nationals was a fluke. And there is a lot on the line for Canada numbers next year at a home world's. There are no guarantees, but your chances are much higher with MT/M. Why would you not send your best teams? I'd call this an exception to the rule for the good of future opportunities for more teams.

Proustable
02-25-2012, 02:42 AM
Lets use Mt/M's scores for the entire of the 2010/2011 season.

Skate Canada: 170.92
Skate America: 175.48
GPF: 169.57
4CC: 166.22
Worlds: 163.17

AVERAGE SCORE: 169.07

This paints a far different picture. Firstly, their much vaunted improvement is closer to five points, not ten.

Secondly, they peak early and go downhill - which contradicts your conclusion that at 4CC and Worlds the scores would increase. Last season, they decreased. If their performance at Nationals was anything to go by, one might be hardpressed to demonstrate how they'd improve. Moreover, this season, using the scores you posted (and even throwing in their Nationals result, which has Nationals Inflation, as usual), we see the same downhill slide.

So, is the gamble worth it? Depends. Do you think sending Dornbush to 4CC over Armin was the right decision?

Jenifer
02-25-2012, 08:47 AM
I think the situation would have been different if MT-M had finished third instead of fourth. If they had been third, it would have been justifiable to have them skate off with DW for the second worlds spot at 4CC. As fourth place finishers, MT/M did not earn the right to even compete at 4CC. To assign them there they would have had to keep L/S (who finished on the podium at 4CC last season, ahead of MT-M) at home. D/R were quite adamant about wanting to skate at 4CC. The only way to help MT-M here would be to very plainly screw over DR or LS. MT/M are a decent team, but 8th in the world/7th in GP standings isn't good/promising enough, IMO, to justify screwing over other teams with legitimate, if lesser, competition histories.

geoskate
02-25-2012, 04:55 PM
I understand Northern Dancer's point. I think that at this point M-T/M are normally a significantly better team than D/W, and certainly the international judges think so. Furthermore, it is a strange situation to see a team that just missed the Grand Prix final not competing at Worlds.

However, perhaps the premise that a combination of D/R and M-T/M could get three spots for next year is questionable. It's possible, but IMO not very likely. If that is true (my assumption), then the rationale for sending M-T/M rather D/W is not very pressing. On the other hand, barring disaster a team of D/R and D/W is just as likely to earn two spots as a team of D/R and M-T/M.

Therefore I don't see why Skate Canada should have ignored their normal protocol in this case. M-T/M should be fine in terms of assignments for next year, since they should finish in the top twelve in terms of season's best and ranking. For D/W, the assignment to Worlds could help them in that regard.

For M-T/M it could even be a positive thing if they handle it correctly. For one thing, it gives them more time to prepare for next season. Also, it gives them the experience of having a disastrous competition in a situation where the cost is not as great as (say) at a Grand Prix competition or at Worlds. If they can figure out what happened and learn how to prevent it in the future, it could end up being a very positive thing for them in the long term.

pani
02-25-2012, 04:59 PM
I think M-T/M should go at WCh. Can understand, why SC send D-W. Especially afer D-W perfomance at 4CC.

blue_idealist
02-25-2012, 05:44 PM
Isn't it too late to change the world team now?

Subway
02-25-2012, 05:55 PM
I think M-T/M should go at WCh. Can understand, why SC send D-W. Especially afer D-W perfomance at 4CC. I agree. While D/W surprised me by getting a pretty good 3 twist, Skate Canada's own logic with Phaneuf versus Lacoste was pretty much that nationals was an anomoly and Phaneuf is the stronger skater with a better chance of a top ten finish at Worlds. Her best probably is better than Lacoste's best, but Phaneuf hasn't shown that she's capable of delivering her best this season. They should have sent Lacoste outright. D/W and MTM - pairs is a favorite discipline of mine and historically Jessica Dube has delivered her best performances at Canadians. Historically there have been a bunch of Canadian skaters who were the same way.

MTMs best is capable of a top ten finish at Worlds and D/W's isn't even if the team skated better than at Canadians. And let's face it, that's unlikely to happen because Dube tends to peak at Canadians. D/W doesn't have the content for a top ten finish at Worlds, even clean. If MTM had had as little content as D/W they might have faired better at Canadians.

It could be said Phaneuf versus Lacoste was the real blunder and respecting the podium finish at Canadians is how Skate Canada ought to have determined its World team across all disciplines. They ended up really insulting Lacoste as the message was they wanted to send anyone but her. Caetlyn Osmond they'd have sent. Phaneuf they'd have sent. But please, give us one more chance not to send Amelie! I find SC's desire to have a top ten finish in ladies sort of funny because their women's picture is so miserable what difference does it make. It's not like the great Canadian ladies will lose opportunity. Pairs is in better shape and could benefit from qualifying 3 teams at Worlds. That's something MTM is in position to help achieve, but not D/W, not even a clean D/W.

flowerpower
02-25-2012, 05:57 PM
I think the problem is that if you repeatedly override Nationals standing to select the Worlds team, you open up an increasingly large can of worms.

Pretty soon skaters would become cynical about what Nationals means, and assume that World team selection is being decided behind closed doors, rather than by what is put on the ice at the national championships. The documented selection criteria do allow SC to take other competitions/considerations into account, but every time you exercise that option, you create perceptions of unfairness that can damage commitment to the sport, domestically.

With four pairs teams (and maybe even more, next year) fighting it out for limited international spots, SC has to be careful about transparency, IMO. It might be different for feds elsewhere which pay skaters' expenses, but SC only pays a fraction of the cost, so fairness is expected by the skaters.