View Full Version : Who will win Ladies title at the US nationals (senior)?

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11-30-2011, 06:34 AM
I just had to create this poll, even though there are only a few options (just 3, IMO, but I wanted to add two more, unrealistic though they may appear).

11-30-2011, 07:07 AM
Czisny's to lose. I would even go as far to say if she makes a few mistakes and the next best (eg- Nagasu) skates their best, she would still win. She has proven to the USFSA she is their strongest and most reliable contender now. Until she falters and someone else steps up with a series of stronger performances she will enter Nationals in the drivers seat.

Nagasu and Wagner are the only other two real contenders this year. Agnes could sneak in for maybe a bronze if she gets herself together by Nationals and someone falters. I see Flatt and Gao both having disaesterous showings at Nationals this year, probably outside the top 5.

11-30-2011, 07:17 AM
I think this is Mirai's year to repeat as winner. :) I think Czisny will be 2nd, Ashley 3rd.

I also think Caroline has a good shot at making the final flight again, which would be a great accomplishment for her (she's only made the final flight at sr Nats after the SP once right?). It would be really nice to see all of the ladies show up and throw it down like 2008 Nationals, I remember being so shocked at how on everybody was at that competition.

11-30-2011, 07:20 AM
To me, Czisny is the only one on the list who fits the "champion" label.

Sure, she could falter and someone like Mirai could skate well and grab the title, but Alissa is in another league from these other girls in terms of maturity, presence and style--her spins are the best in the world--and when she's on, her jumps hold up with the best of them.

11-30-2011, 07:27 AM
Ashley Wagner will win Nationals.

Polymer Bob
11-30-2011, 08:37 AM
I also think Caroline has a good shot at making the final flight again, which would be a great accomplishment for her (she's only made the final flight at sr Nats after the SP once right?). It would be really nice to see all of the ladies show up and throw it down like 2008 Nationals, I remember being so shocked at how on everybody was at that competition.

In 2008, Caroline should have made the final group, but a judging error during the short kept her out. They tried to fix their mistake by giving her points back after the short had concluded. Then somebody decided they can't do that after the fact, so they took her points away. Her score went up, then down again. We had no idea what was going on. :confused:

11-30-2011, 09:10 AM
I didn't realize it worked out that way, I didn't follow the SP that year live because I was working (didn't she step out of the 2axel?), amazing how she skated her LP that year still with 7 triples. I remember thinking wow Caroline might be the 1st skater to ever win US Nationals without being in the last group, but then all of the other ladies decided to lay down 7 triple skates too! :kickass:

Where the heck did that competitive fire go? I mean geez! The top 4 at the last Olympics didn't even each nail 7 triple long programs (much much better skaters and programs I know), that kind of stuff wasn't even happening back when Tara/Michelle were competing at Nationals. It was like 2008 Nationals had some kind of weird equinox where all of the stars and planets aligned just right to get our hopes up majorly (and we've had no 3 spots at Worlds since that year :lol:), then bam next year we have Czisny winning with a 3 triple freeskate. It was like M.C. Hammer's career, or Fedor Andreev's. :saint:

11-30-2011, 10:57 AM
I think it will go Alissa, Mirai and Ashley, in that ordered. Alissa can probably still falter slightly and win.

11-30-2011, 12:25 PM
This is the 1st year since '06 - '07 that there is an actual pecking order in US ladies, as opposed to the clusterf-ck we've seen the last few years: 1) Czisny; 2) Nagasu; 3) Wagner. The mini-drama will come between Nagasu and Wagner for that 2d spot. Nagasu has an edge but if Wagner puts a 3-3 in the SP and 2x-3t in the LP, she could nab it.

11-30-2011, 04:31 PM
I don't know why almost everyone is assuming Alissa is unbeatable. She has not been known as a consistent skater. A few years ago she won a couple of GPs and then fell apart (IIRC at the nationals). It may not be that bad this time, but her jumps are marginal. A good skate by Mirai can beat her, unless the judges want to hold up Alissa, no matter what actually happens on the ice. Ashley seems like a different skater too this year and you don't know how they will perform at the nationals. I understand the odds being in favor of Alissa, based on their performances this season, but I don't see it as a certainty that she will perform well at the nationals. She is going to face more pressure than she ever has in her career. May the best performance win.

Polymer Bob
11-30-2011, 04:49 PM
Alissa can probably still falter slightly and win.

When the USFSA decides ahead of time who will win, which they don't always do, that person has considerable leeway to make mistakes. The 2007 ladies event was so tight between Kimmie, Alissa and Emily, that any one of them could have won. The prevalent theory at the time was that the USFSA wanted Kimmie to defend her World title as National champion.

May the best performance win.

That is what will happen, unless decisions have been made ahead of time.

11-30-2011, 04:53 PM
Alissa is likely to buckle under the pressure of being the favorite. I think we should all make a pact to stop tempting the skate gods, and hereby proclaim someone else as the favorite and Alissa as the underdog.

That being said, Mirai has a history as well of crumbling when she was in the lead. So let's not proclaim her the favorite either. :lol:

11-30-2011, 04:59 PM
Based ONLY on recent GP results, I picked Czisny- BUT I think it could be any 3 of Czisny, Nagasu, Wagner.

There is something else to consider, too- the defending national champ has buckled under the pressure since at least 2008. Seems to be a "curse" of being the defending champion recently. If Czisny falters (either SP, FS or both) and Nagasu skates like we all know she can, the latter should win. Yet, there is something else telling me that it could be Wagner's year. I'd still say Wagner is the least likely of the 3 and would probably be considered somewhat of an upset if she did win.

11-30-2011, 05:20 PM
I would agree that Alissa is likely to win, based on the GP season. The international judges have loved her empty programs this season, so I'm sure the USFS judges will too. :saint:

Mirai and Ashley will have to battle for the other Worlds spot.

There are a lot of amazing young skaters who I could see vying for the bronze or pewter should Mirai or Ashley bomb, be sick or get injured though, like Siraj, Keiser, Cesario.... I don't see them on the World team at this time, but I didn't expect the men's team of Bradley, Dornbush and Miner last season either. :lol:

11-30-2011, 06:03 PM
I think it will be Alissa, Mirai or Ashley, and I don't see any of them as having a huge leg up in this competition. Alissa will be favored, of course, because of her GP performance, but I really don't see her as a lock at all because I think Mirai and Ashley both have the ability to beat her without Alissa having a total meltdown.

The fight for the second spot on the podium will be a lot more interesting!