PDA

View Full Version : Which men have best chances at Silver and Bronze at Worlds this year



Pages : 1 2 3 4 [5]

professordeb
11-30-2011, 11:51 PM
It seems that everyone on here has forgotten about Plushenko, who still intends to skate at Europeans and Worlds this season. Or have you all really counted him out, no matter whether he skates there, or not? I think, if he's going to participate, he will fight for the gold, or at least for silver. With how things currently are, he most likely doesn't have a chance against Chan, if Chan skates cleanly. But if he doesn't - then everything is possible, knowing what a fighter Plushenko is. In any case, I don't believe that he will be off the podium if he skates. From the information that we had about his work I understood that he is adding more transitions and so on to his programs. Of course, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to combine it all with his former great jumps. And whether his health will allow him to skate at all.

I would venture to say that Plush will be hard pressed to be on the podium IF
1) other skaters go decently clean and get the PCS they have been getting all along this season
2) Plush gets PCS based upon his actual skating performance and not on his reputation.

Should others falter badly (more than one mistake from anyone other than Chan) and IF Plush can land multiple quads (he's going to need it in the short and multiple ones in combination for the free just to stay with Chan), he's got as good shot on the podium as many others. I would venture to say that unless Chan implodes, the gold is his for the taking. However, I think it would be cool to see Plushy on the podium in say the bronze postition standing next to Chan and Takahashi. Yeah, I could handle that podium.

aftershocks
12-01-2011, 12:01 AM
What do people think about Brezina? After Worlds last year, I thought he had a good shot at scaring Patrick, ...

Patrick "scared"? I don't think there's anyone but the judges that Patrick need be "scared of." He's received some pretty "scary" high marks when not performing well, and he knows it as well as everyone else. Not his fault, though.

In any case, the only guys PC might be looking over his shoulder at during GPF are mainly Dai, and perhaps Hanyu and maybe Jeremy if they all skate lights out. Fernandez surely has a podium chance as well.

Worlds is a different story because so many others will be in the mix. If the judges would judge fairly and Patrick makes many mistakes, while others are great, then gold is up for grabs too (or it should be ;)).

judgejudy27
12-01-2011, 12:19 AM
If Plushenko somehow is at Worlds Chan does not have to skate anywhere near clean to beat him. Chan doesnt have to skate clean to beat skaters who are stronger than a 29 year old Plushenko on a beat up old body would be, so why would he Plushenko. If Plushenko is at his Vancouver level the 5 fall cushion Chan currently has (other than maybe on a clean Takahashi) would definitely not be changed one iota by Plushenko's presence. The reality is Plushenko would probably even be below his Vancouver level at this point.

If I had known anything about Plushenko possibly coming back to skate this year yes I would have included him in the silver and bronze poll. I dont think he will medal if he is at Worlds but he is still a better option than some I currently have on the poll.

icenut84
12-01-2011, 12:09 PM
Yep, sounds about right to me :lol: I'm sure the Chan haterz will be out in full force :D

To be frank, while there are some people who don't like Chan because of his perceived arrogance or don't enjoy his skating, some just simply don't like the scoring he gets and the fact he beats excellent skaters even when he falls multiple times. Nobody wants to watch a competition that is a foregone conclusion - don't you remember the days when the annointed champions in ice dance could skate like crap and still win, even if the 2nd or 3rd place teams were great? It often didn't really matter how they skated, the results stayed the same. Grishuk & Platov could fall and still stay in first; Drobiazko & Vanagas were kept behind TWO teams that fell in the 2002 Olympics. Not just in dance either - back in the days of 6.0, a top skater could have a complete disaster and would still not drop more than a placement or two, staying ahead of people who skated much better.

COP changed that, in a lot of ways. Now, if a top skater tanks, they drop like a stone in the rankings (see Joubert and Verner at the 2010 Olympics and Kim at 2010 Worlds SP). And if someone comes from nowhere and skates great, they are rewarded for it. The main exception to this rule appears to be Chan, who is still held up even when he tanks. And to be honest, his PCS marks should NOT be THAT much further ahead. I find the idea that he should have a 2-3 fall cushion over someone like a clean Takahashi to be laughable. And there are quite a few of the top skaters these days who have amazing skating skills, good transitions, good choreography and performance quality.

In a lot of ways, the judges are doing Chan a disservice because despite the medals thrown at him, they're making a lot of people hope he doesn't win.

Vash01
12-01-2011, 04:14 PM
To be frank, while there are some people who don't like Chan because of his perceived arrogance or don't enjoy his skating, some just simply don't like the scoring he gets and the fact he beats excellent skaters even when he falls multiple times. Nobody wants to watch a competition that is a foregone conclusion - don't you remember the days when the annointed champions in ice dance could skate like crap and still win, even if the 2nd or 3rd place teams were great? It often didn't really matter how they skated, the results stayed the same. Grishuk & Platov could fall and still stay in first; Drobiazko & Vanagas were kept behind TWO teams that fell in the 2002 Olympics. Not just in dance either - back in the days of 6.0, a top skater could have a complete disaster and would still not drop more than a placement or two, staying ahead of people who skated much better.

COP changed that, in a lot of ways. Now, if a top skater tanks, they drop like a stone in the rankings (see Joubert and Verner at the 2010 Olympics and Kim at 2010 Worlds SP). And if someone comes from nowhere and skates great, they are rewarded for it. The main exception to this rule appears to be Chan, who is still held up even when he tanks. And to be honest, his PCS marks should NOT be THAT much further ahead. I find the idea that he should have a 2-3 fall cushion over someone like a clean Takahashi to be laughable. And there are quite a few of the top skaters these days who have amazing skating skills, good transitions, good choreography and performance quality.

In a lot of ways, the judges are doing Chan a disservice because despite the medals thrown at him, they're making a lot of people hope he doesn't win.

ITA on most. There are even posters that think he has a 5-fall cushion. Now THAT is a foregone conclusion- it's even worse than ice dancing. I love his skating- it's fluid, the attention to details is top notch, the positions and transitions are wonderful. Still, if he does not deliver in the actual performance, he should be marked down.

I remember the days when B&S who were head and shoulders above any other pair, were not given that benefit of doubt by the fsu posters. Just one fall in an otherwise gorgeous LP, and they felt a clean S&Z who had nothing at that time but wow throws and no artistry should have won at the 1999 worlds. That is much stricter than the 5-fall cushion Chan is getting. He is the best skater, but when he has a subpar performance and another high level skater (e.g. Takahashi who is artistic as well) has a great performance, Chan should not be just given the win.

I don't care what he says in public- lately I have not heard anything from him, so may he has grown out of it- I think he is the best skater right now, and he is beautiful to watch, but he needs to be marked appropriately.

BTW COP is not as great as you described. I have seen Yu na get higher LP score with a fall over a clean Mao with 3A at the 2010 worlds. The only reason Yu na did not win was she messed up the SP badly and had too much ground to make up. However, if she was Chan, the win would have been hers.

One reason the 6.0 system appeared to be unfair was that anyone in the top 3 could win the competition with a win in the LP. So a top pair that makes a major mistake in the SP often placed 3rd and was in a position to win by skating well in the LP. What I like about the COP is that the mistake makers have to make up some ground in the LP; they can't automatically win with a win in the LP.

Jaana
12-01-2011, 06:06 PM
I see Chan as far from perfect, ie. his stumbles on footwork sequences.. and of course jumps.. but the judges seem to see him as 'perfect' and reward him even when he has a bad skate, because of his skating skills or whatever. Elvis didn't get that same love. If he didn't nail his quads, he lost; you wouldn't see him winning a competition with three or four falls.

Do you see similarities in the skating of Chan and Stojko? Chan is not getting his high PCS because of "while skating as a Canadian".

love_skate2011
12-01-2011, 10:39 PM
Fernandez and Hanyu :)

Vash01
12-02-2011, 12:02 AM
Fernandez and Hanyu :)

IMO both have a bright future, but right now they may not be ready for a podium finish- Fernandez may be for a bronze, but not silver, unless Takahashi, Abbott and Kozuka bomb.

BigB08822
12-02-2011, 01:22 AM
I picked Abbott, Takahashi, Brezina, and Fernandez.

My exact picks as well. Song would need too many meltdowns and even then it probably wouldn't be enough. Kozuka seems like a logical choice but he seems to be in a rebuilding year.

icenut84
12-02-2011, 11:55 AM
BTW COP is not as great as you described. I have seen Yu na get higher LP score with a fall over a clean Mao with 3A at the 2010 worlds. The only reason Yu na did not win was she messed up the SP badly and had too much ground to make up. However, if she was Chan, the win would have been hers.

Don't get me wrong, COP has flaws and things need tweaking. I thought Asada should have easily won the LP at 2010 Worlds too. I'm glad they've lessened the penalty for underrotations because it was getting ridiculous. There's still a way to go, but IMO COP is still much better at ranking people in the right place based on actual performance (for the most part......)

olympic
12-02-2011, 06:04 PM
My head tells me - Takahashi and Fernandez in that order. While I think Chan will win again, I believe that Takahashi will be closer than most people would assume. Fernandez is a jumping dream, but despite the 4s and 4t, I think he'll finish behind Dai w/o a Quad because his non jump elements are still a tad wanting. I think a 2d man from Japan - either Kozuka or Hanyu - will finish ahead of Brezina but miss a medal and place behind Fernandez. I don't know what to think of Gachinski. I don't like his style at all and he's been bombing this season, yet it's obvious he'll get grotesquely high marks if he stays on his feet [even if I think it's not merited]

My heart wants Jeremy to snag a medal. Alas, while that's possible it's a long shot. My head tells me that Jeremy will probably get the 3x's by Worlds and he could slot amongst the top men somewhere, but the best he can do is help get 3 spots back for the US

Vash01
12-02-2011, 07:28 PM
My gut feeling is this is Jeremy's year to win a world medal.