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haribobo
10-30-2011, 01:21 AM
OK just pairs and dance today- too many contendors in singles right now to make a sensible poll with all contendors.

DinDonShamu
10-30-2011, 01:25 AM
hoops how come I only voted for 5 ... boooo :lol:

Carmen Ovsiannikov
10-30-2011, 03:06 AM
I only voted for 5 as well but I did that on purpose. I think either Shibutani's or I&K could be the sixth couple depending on their programs and how well they are skated.

I chose V&M, D&W, P&B, B&S and W&P as the five. Of course W&P haven't skated their FD yet. Also it bears watching how quickly Fabian recovers; I'm hoping P&B don't have to miss Bompard as well.

Really
10-30-2011, 05:09 AM
I picked 4 because I don't know enough about the others...

mineko
10-30-2011, 06:27 AM
My predictions are the followings:

1. D/W 30 points (1st at SA = 15 points; 1st at CoR = 15 points);
1. V/M 30 points (1st at SC = 15 points; 1st at TEB = 15 points);
3. the Shibs 28 points (1st at CoR = 15 points; 2nd at NHK = 13 points);
3. W/P 28 points (2nd at SC = 13 points; 1st at NHK = 15 points);
5. P/B 26 points (2nd at SA = 13 points; 2nd at TEB = 13 points);
6. Any of the 3 Russian teams - see my rationale below.

I chose V/M, D/W, P/B, S/S, W/P, and R/T. To me the only question is which Russian team among three, that occupies the sixth and the last spot. Another possibility for the last spot is C/L of Italy, based on how well they skated at SC. After SD programs at SA, they are sitting on the 3rd place. However, they tend to lose ground to other teams after FD due primarily to lack of stamina in the early season. So I am not surpirsed that R/T wins the bronze medal at SC especially since their FD is superb. So R/T get 11 points.

V/M and D/W are givens. Those two teams are in the league of their own. The only challenge comes from each others' team. So V/M will medal both at SC and TEB. D/W medal at SA and CoR. That's total of 30 points each.

The Shibs are seaded at CoC and NHK Trophy - those are where predictions get fun.

Based on programs I saw, only BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV could potentially threaten the Shibs' first place finish at CoC. However, B/S' programs I saw at Russian testing sessions in September were uninspiring. Their SD in particular did not provide the Latin feel at all; I would not be surprised that they were advised to change their SD, which would mean less time for them to prepare. The Shibs already debuted their programs at Finlandia where they placed the second after V/M. The following week the Shibs went to Harvard and skated for Evening with champions. Hence, preparation advantage also goes to the Shibs over B/S. It means B/S likely to earn 13 points.

At NHK trophy, teams that potentially challenge the Shibs are W/P and I/K. I rank technical proficiency among three teams as:
1. the Shibs;
2. W/P;
3. I/K.
The shibs are the youngest, but watching SA and SC ice dance competitions helped me appreciate just how technically superior the Shibs are.

However, the Shibs' young age and even younger appearance are the inevitable disadvantage for presentation. Hece the rankings as:
1. W/P;
2. I/K;
3. the Shibs.

Barring disaster, e.g., wardrobe malfunction, fall, I predict that the placement to be:
1. W/P;
2. the Shibs;
3. I/K (11 points)

It means the Shibs have the total of 28 points, and W/P, assuming that they placed the second at SC, also earn 28 points.

The fifth slot is P/B, who had already placed second at SA; they are likely to place second again at TEB, after V/M. It means P/B will have 26 points.

The last slot: After the first events, three Russian teams earn:
R/T (11 points);
B/S (13 points);
I/K (11 points).

I/K is due to skate at TEB where she will likely to place the 3rd again, after V/M & P/B, meaning I/K earn the total of 22 points.

Both R/T & B/S are scheduled to skate at the last event at their home country in which probably D/W is the winner and P/W to be the silver medalists. Hence, if B/S skate better than R/T, B/S will be the last slot recipients. However, if R/T wins over B/S, the math turns out to be:

R/T 22 points (3rd=11 points at SC and 3rd=11 points at CoR);
B/S 22 points (2nd=13 points at CoC and 4th=9 points);
I/K 22 points (3rd=11 points at CoC and 3rd=11 points at TEB. :eek::eek:

In the above scenario, the tie braker will be the highest total points among the couples.

Tak
10-30-2011, 07:26 AM
Wow - a lot of effort went into that post :cool: - and I can see your point. I'd love to see a 3 way tie.

My picks were totally gut-instinct w/o a lot of serious thought - but I picked

V/M, D/W, P/B, S/S - who I thought were all more or less a lock [barring some disaster]. Of the others I thought W/P and B/S probably had the best chance of making it - due to their placements at Worlds.

mineko
10-30-2011, 07:32 AM
Wow - a lot of effort went into that post :cool: - and I can see your point. I'd love to see a 3 way tie.

My picks were totally gut-instinct w/o a lot of serious thought - but I picked

V/M, D/W, P/B, S/S - who I thought were all more or less a lock [barring some disaster]. Of the others I thought W/P and B/S probably had the best chance of making it - due to their placements at Worlds.

Of course there are many ways to come to a right prediction ;)

caseyedwards
10-30-2011, 08:10 AM
I should have waited until I saw B/S because I voted for C/L because I just saw them and they looked good. But V/M, D/W, are the locks. Then you have S/S and W/P. I would have thought P/B but now his health seems to be in question - they would be in between V/M D/W and S/S and W/P. I voted 6th in C/L - They have been there in the GPF before. Maybe B/S can get there.

casken
10-30-2011, 08:58 AM
R/T 22 points (3rd=11 points at SC

R&T will have to make up 7 points on C&L in the FD which will only happen if C&L have a meltdown on a major element.


Based on programs I saw, only BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV could potentially threaten the Shibs' first place finish at CoC. However, B/S' programs I saw at Russian testing sessions in September were uninspiring. Their SD in particular did not provide the Latin feel at all; I would not be surprised that they were advised to change their SD, which would mean less time for them to prepare.

Eh, same could be said for the Shibs.

But they are Shpilband, so I concur that they are the favorites at CoC.

And holy crap is the bronze wide open at CoC. :eek:

DORISPULASKI
10-30-2011, 10:45 AM
And holy crap is the bronze wide open at CoC. :eek:

Absolutely! But B&S look like a lock for the silver there to me, and Shibs for gold


CoC


1 Xintong HUANG / Xun ZHENG CHN
2 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN
3 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA
4 Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND GBR
5 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS
6 Charlotte LICHTMAN / Dean COPELY USA
7 Emily SAMUELSON / Todd GILLES USA
8 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA

At NHK, Shib & W&P for gold and silver in either order. I&K for 3rd.

NHK


1 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN
2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN
3 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER
4 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI ITA
5 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN
6 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS
7 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT USA
8 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 6

V&M gold, P&B for their 2nd silver. C&L and I&K fight it out for bronze.

TEB

1 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 1
2 Xintong HUANG / Xun ZHENG CHN 2
3 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA
4 Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Alexis MIART FRA
5 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA
6 Kristina GORSHKOVA / Vitali BUTIKOV RUS
7 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS
8 Sara HURTADO / Adria DIAZ

CoR is tricky, but R&T are looking no better than 4th at SC. At best that gives them 3&4 B&S have a 2nd I think at Coc, and no worse than 4th here. W&P for 2nd, D&W for 1st.



COR

Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES
Cathy REED / Chris REED
Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS
Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV
Ekaterina PUSHKASH / Jonathan GUERREIRO
Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO
Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE


And that leaves B&S for the 6th spot with 2 & 4 or 2 &3. I&k and C&L have no better than 3&3 and the 2nd spot is the tie breaker.

casken
10-30-2011, 11:07 AM
At NHK, Shib & W&P for gold and silver in either order. I&K for 3rd.

I&K could do better than 3rd. They are the big question mark for me right now.

I think like at worlds, the PCS between Shibs, W&P, B&S, and I&K this season will be close enough that it will come down to the levels and GOE, which admittedly the Shibs usually have the upper hand on. But if I&K can actually get the tech stuff done and their FD is decent I could see them taking silver or gold at NHK.

DORISPULASKI
10-30-2011, 01:33 PM
Not unless they improved a whole heck of a lot since Russian tests--which is possible.

Just looking at the competition at their events, B&S have a significantly easier path than I&K.


Furthermore, Shibs get to debut their stuff at CoC where the only competition is Bobrova & Soloviev-they have time to adjust levels before NHK. I&K have to debut at NHK, where there are not only Shibs & W&P, but also Z&G (whom I hope will have revamped their FD) and K/G-S who are pretty good, as are P&I provided they don't bomb as at SA. Under worst case, I&K could end up fourth.

Certainly, a problem in the SD could be disastrous for them, as they could easily end up in the 2nd group, as did Hubbell&Donahue at SA (leading to them not medalling).

zotza
10-30-2011, 01:56 PM
I wouldn't be sure about anyone except for D/W and V/M at this point.
R/T with all that early domestic PR couldn't score more than 5 points ahead from junior P/G?Their SD marks were exactly 3 points than at Russian Cup,and I'm waiting to see what happens with their FD tonight.because if it's 3 points down again it's going to be really low.
I wouldn't consider Shibs clear favourite for either CoC and NHK.Ok,they are the bronze medalists but how better are they going to score from Finlandia? V/M did 3 points more in their SD so that puts them around 62?No one can really know and it's not that the Shibs won that medal with the others being clean.Again,both Shibs and B/S won't have the home advantage W/P have in Canada.
I/K are a question mark.If they show up like they were at the test skates it's not going to be good.And it seems that Morosov didn't want them to do Russian Cup before the GP because he wouldn't like to risk a bad performance there.Quite clever if you ask me.
I expect C/L to reach the GPF,and medal at Europeans,but again,they will have to finish 3rd twice and wait to see if one of the teams with a difficult field falls behind in one of their events.
At this point I'd have D/W ,V/M (the latter I love to pieces but it seems like they're losing their spark,hope I'm wrong),S/S,B/S,W/P and I'd dare say I/K.
To me Shibs have the easiest assignments.Worst case scenario for them is two silvers.

Proustable
10-30-2011, 01:57 PM
Doris, slight correction - the tiebreaker in your scenario would be who had the highest placemenet - which would be B/S at CoC with silver.

DORISPULASKI
10-30-2011, 02:16 PM
That was what I meant, but I didn't say so particularly well. :slinkaway