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judgejudy27
10-30-2011, 02:31 PM
Now that Pechalat & Bourzat are out of it I predict the 3 World medalists, the top 2 Russian teams, and Weaver & Poje.

MikiAndoFan#1
10-30-2011, 02:34 PM
Now that Pechalat & Bourzat are out of it I predict the 3 World medalists, the top 2 Russian teams, and Weaver & Poje.

:confused: Péchalat & Bourzat still have to compete at TEB.

Elkmaria
10-30-2011, 03:45 PM
I only voted for 5 as well but I did that on purpose. I think either Shibutani's or I&K could be the sixth couple depending on their programs and how well they are skated.

I chose V&M, D&W, P&B, B&S and W&P as the five. Of course W&P haven't skated their FD yet. Also it bears watching how quickly Fabian recovers; I'm hoping P&B don't have to miss Bompard as well.

I thought and voted exactly the same way, and it was before reading your post, I swear :)
I think that the Shibutanis may have the edge over I/K, since they are Worlds bronze medalists and may therefore get more 'reputation' points. But if I/K are strong enough, they have a good chance of beating S/S.

Proustable
10-30-2011, 04:08 PM
That was what I meant, but I didn't say so particularly well. :slinkaway

Sorry - I read points as skating points (ie, total scores) not ranking points.

Last season, at NHK, I/K got hammered on levels, w/ five level two elements in their FD. Even the top teams struggle earning the levels on their first competition - V/M at Finlandia had three level twos across their two programs. I get the strategy of chosing a later event for their debut (more time to improve; knowledge that the first two events are going to the gold and silver medalists who are a cut above, as opposed to the Shibs who are beatable) but a tought technical caller could destroy I/K's chances.

The FD in SC will be interesting for W/P - they usually fall behind there, but so do C/L, and the fact that W/P can spoil in their third event as well.

blue_idealist
10-30-2011, 04:35 PM
Well, I only picked four.. Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Pechalat/Bourzat, and Weaver/Poje. I'm on the fence about the others, especially since I haven't even seen the Shibutanis skate yet this season. I'm expecting they will make it based on last season, but who knows. Cappellini/Lanotte, Bobrova/Soloviev, and Ilinykh/Katsalapov, who I also haven't seen, are distinct possibilities. I'm also watching Tobias/Stagniunas after their surprise medal at Skate America. I'm pretty sure Pushkash/Guerreiro and Zhiganshina/Gaszi are out of the running, and I don't expect to see Riazanova/Tkachenko make it either.

judgejudy27
10-30-2011, 04:47 PM
:confused: Péchalat & Bourzat still have to compete at TEB.

Sorry I forgot this was the year they were going back to 3 assignments for some skaters. The Shibutanis have incredibly easy assignments. They have a good shot to win both, but at worst they would be 2nd in both which would easily make it. It would take something catastrophic to not.

mineko
10-31-2011, 01:47 AM
Ok, time to eat my own words...:P

I initially predicted:
1. D/W 30 points (1st at SA = 15 points; 1st at CoR = 15 points);
1. V/M 30 points (1st at SC = 15 points; 1st at TEB = 15 points);
3. the Shibs 28 points (1st at CoR = 15 points; 2nd at NHK = 13 points);
3. W/P 28 points (2nd at SC = 13 points; 1st at NHK = 15 points);
5. P/B 26 points (2nd at SA = 13 points; 2nd at TEB = 13 points);
6. Any of the 3 Russian teams.

My predictions for the first 5 teams still stand, but I now need to make two adjustments:

1. My 6th slot prediction among 3 Russians teams was based on the premise that R/T wins the bronze medal at SC thereby earning 13 points there. It didn't happen. They did not even maintain the 4th place coming out of SD comp; they lost ground and ended up at the 5th place, thereby earning only 7 points.

Unfortunately I was struck by just how slowly they skated compared to the top teams. They also had two point music deductions, which was disheartening, as their program was out there for a while. I really wish that they make a strong comeback. As for now, though, their prospect for making to the GPF is considerably dimmed, if not impossible.

Decrease in R/T's fortune means the increase in B/S's fortune as Doris described in the previous page. B/S has a considerably easier path to the GPF; they may battle out the last slot with C/P.

My second adjustment does not affect who would go to GPF; it has to do with the placement between W/P and the Shibs at NHK Trophy.

My initial prediction at NHK was:
1. W/P;
2. the Shibs.

I am no longer certain about the placement after watching W/P's performance at SD. The Shibs could win gold at NHK, though I still think it is a close call. The reason being that I have almost forgotten just how "accident prone" W/P were. I had to hold my breath a couple of times during W/P's FD performance.

True, W/P are a smoking hot couple, but their striking good looks do not save themselves from stepped out twizzle sequence, and/or wobbly lift (at least they shouldn't :lol: but one never knows). If not for an outright deduction, they would certainly be punished for reduced GOEs. On the other hand, the Shibs are known for racking up positive GOEs. (Side note: ISU judging panels used the Shibs' skating video as a model for earning bonus/positive GOE points. This young couple's skating skills are considered that good.)

And somebody better tell Kaitlyn to fix her "spaghetti strong" dress, which was kept coming down from one side of her shoulder during their FD. That was a "wardrobe malfunction waiting to happen." At their elite level of skating, no details should be unattended.

That's it for now, though I have a strong suspicion that I have to come back again & again to eat my words...:rolleyes: oh, well...

Pratfall
11-01-2011, 01:52 AM
:lol:

Kaitlyn actually has a flesh coloured strap on that shoulder and the red 'strap' is extra and is sewn on to hang off the shoulder.

And don't forget they've opted for best 2 out of 3.

mineko
11-01-2011, 02:30 AM
:lol:

Kaitlyn actually has a flesh coloured strap on that shoulder and the red 'strap' is extra and is sewn on to hang off the shoulder.

And don't forget they've opted for best 2 out of 3.

The strap - it maybe, but don't you think it may still be hazardous for accidentally being ripped off or something? :shuffle:

As for skating three events, the GP rule dictates that you have to submit ahead of time the 2 out of 3 events that should be counted as official scores.

W/P attend SC, NHK, and TEB. If I hazard a guess, W/P asked ISU to account SC and NHK as their official scores. Why? Their practice mates and the closest rivals, P/B also signed up for two overlapping events:
SA, SC, & TEB.

It is the coaching teams' responsibility to strategize and map out the best possible path for their team to the GPF. So, if I were W/P & P/B's mutual coaches (Krylova & Camerlenge), I would make two official scoring events of each team as:

P/B = SA & TEB;
W/P =SC & NHK.

That way, each team get to maximize their own home court advantage. The fact that P/B withdrew from S/C (i know Fabian got afflicted with bronchitis, but still, they incurred monetary penality) also suggest that their remaining offcial score event is TEB.

Sylvia
11-01-2011, 02:34 AM
From the ISU Grand Prix Announcement:

Only the best two placements, out of the 3 events, will count for the qualification to the Final.

mineko
11-01-2011, 02:39 AM
Sylvia - thank you for correcting my misconception.

Still, if those high ranking skater are allowed to pick the best two out of three, don't you think that that would give these players unfair advantage?

For instance, I'm sure Paul/Islam would love to have an additional event to "re-do" their disastrous SD at SA. :confused:

julieann
11-01-2011, 02:47 AM
Still, if those high ranking skater are allowed to pick the best two out of three, don't you think that that would give these players unfair advantage?

For instance, I'm sure Paul/Islam would love to have an additional event to "re-do" their disastrous SD at SA. :confused:

They need to be in the top 6 at worlds and they will get that chance next season.

Those skaters get that additional event because they are the upper echelon of skaters; not many took advantage of it.

mineko
11-01-2011, 03:11 AM
They need to be in the top 6 at worlds and they will get that chance next season.

Those skaters get that additional event because they are the upper echelon of skaters; not many took advantage of it.

Yes, I understand these are the criteria for skating for three events and not many took advantage of it.

I understand that the ISU went for enticing the "upper echelon" skaters with the hope of drawing larger audiences.

Guess when monetary motive is stronger, it tramps the fairness, then. :rolleyes:

julieann
11-01-2011, 03:34 AM
Yes, I understand these are the criteria for skating for three events and not many took advantage of it.

I understand that the ISU went for enticing the "upper echelon" skaters with the hope of drawing larger audiences.

Guess when monetary motive is stronger, it tramps the fairness, then. :rolleyes:

It's not all about money for some teams; it's about getting to do as many competitions as they can. Some of the teams depending on their schedule of competitions (and other things I'm sure) can't go to Nebelhorn, Ondrej Nepela Memorial, Finlandia or Cup of Nice etc......

So by the time some of the skaters meet up; some are competing for the first time and others have a few competitions under their belts already.

Why should the top 6 who chose three events be punished because some skaters need a do-over? I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem if Paul/Islam a medal.

mineko
11-01-2011, 05:27 AM
^ Perhaps I might not have made it clear. When I wrote about money, I referred to the monetary motives of ISU/GP organizers. Like higher ranking players presumably could attract larger audiences, thereby fattening the ISU bottomline.

I am not sure what you mean by "Why should the top 6 who chose three events be punished because some skaters need a do-over? I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem if Paul/Islam a medal."

How would teams who choose to skate 3 events be punished?

When I mentioned that P/I wishing an additional event for a do-over, I was fully aware that they did not have that opportunity due to their lower world ranking.

But that is precisely my point: To me the fairness factor comes in if three events options are available to all GP invitees.

Another unfair factor is monetary concern. Top 6 teams, by virtue of being higher raking, mean that have more opportunities to earn prize money. It means less opportunities for lower ranking teams to earn prize money.

Likewise, P/B, by having an option to skate at three events, and by having to sign up to three events, they are still potentially eligible to qualify for GPF even after withdrawing from their second event (SC); they have TEB to skate. This option is not available to lesser seaded and/or non-seaded skaters who are invited to two events. For them, if for whatever reason, they withdraw from one event, they are no longer eligible to earn enough points to qualify for GPF.

Please understand that I am not begrudging that P/B could still skate one additional event. I am happy that they have one more fighting chance. I am, however, merely pointing out the option that they have but not others.