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View Full Version : Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?



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FarFarAway
08-22-2011, 10:40 PM
I have to disagree with this. Other than Chan, I don't see a man skating at a really high level right now. We don't know if Kozuka will develop, if Takahashi will be around (and still skating well), if Oda will ever learn to follow the COP rules. By the time 2014 rolls around, we may see a strong field but right now I don't.

Completely agree. But, I think we can't even be very much sure about Chan at the moment - there are 2.5 seasons before the Olympics.


I think Plushy came back because he missed competing, and also because he believed that he could beat these guys.

I don't think this was the primary reason for his return in 09-10 season.

judgejudy27
08-22-2011, 11:15 PM
I have to disagree with this. Other than Chan, I don't see a man skating at a really high level right now.

Chan already is enough to make the sufficient difference on his own. To put it bluntly neither Lysacek and Plushenko have a hope in hell to compete with Chan at his current level, and I dont even like Chan (and actually do like Plushenko). Chan skating as he did now would have won the Olympics in Vancouver by about 40 points.


We don't know if Kozuka will develop

No we dont how he will develop, but we do know he already posted a 180 LP at Worlds, much higher than the career PB of either Plushenko or Lysacek, both whom never even reached a 170 and didnt in Vancouver either. In just one year the scoring isnt that advanced, in fact in the ladies, pairs, and for most of the men the scores were much lower than last year. I would my money on Kozuka over an aging champion returning anyday at this point, although I think he has a long way to go to challenge Chan.


if Takahashi will be around (and still skating well)

I dont think he will either. He falls into the same group as Plushenko and Lysacek, old veterans with lots of wear on their bodies who will be swept away as non contenders by 2014 if he is even skating. He wasnt even much a contender this season.


if Oda will ever learn to follow the COP rules.

I dont see him as being a big factor in the coming years either. It will be Chan, Kozuka, and some of the current younger skaters who still have alot of improvement until 2014.


By the time 2014 rolls around, we may see a strong field but right now I don't.

It is already strong enough Evan or Evgeny at their Vancouver level definitely could not win. That is the point. It will only get stronger from here.


Evan won the 2009 worlds because Joubert made a tactical error during his LP. IMO both Joubert and Takahashi were contenders for the OGM, at least on paper. Also Abbott was skating very well. I think Plushy came back because he missed competing, and also because he believed that he could beat these guys. He almost did, but partly because Joubert had his Olympic meltdown, Takahashi fell on the quad while Lysacek wisely eliminated the quad from his programs, and IMO Oda was never as strong artistically as these skaters. Abbott skated poorly too, but on paper the field was pretty strong.

Joubert was past his prime by that point. 2009 Worlds was high last real shot of a big title. I never saw him as a threat for the 2010 OGM. At Worlds soon after the Games he had a pretty good competition and won the bronze in a field with 4 of the top 6 out, well behind a quadless/3 major error Chan. Takahashi was out with injury in 2009, and fighting to come back from it along with the major consistency issues he had his whole career in 2010. Abbott is a huge headcase who has never proven anything in major events.

Zokko!
08-22-2011, 11:36 PM
Of course! Two, Ice Dance and Pairs for sure! :cheer2:

misskarne
08-23-2011, 01:06 AM
Kulik was doing spread eagles (not Ina Bauer) into triple axel, as eligible.

I too loved the 3A-0.5loop-3f combination. I don't think he can do the 4t-3t-3R combination now, but if he does the 4-3-2 even that will be amazing.

Oh? :confused: Oops. I could have sworn he did the Ina Bauer. Oh well. Not my fault Ilia did so many fantastic jumps ;)

Proustable
08-23-2011, 01:50 AM
Falling on a 2A is tactical error?

Vash01
08-23-2011, 04:03 AM
Falling on a 2A is tactical error?

I was referring to the jump he skipped toward the end, thinking he had done enough to win. That was a tactical error.

Proustable
08-23-2011, 04:28 AM
I know he did that in 2008 with Buttle, doing a 2A+1t instead of.... anything else. Which jump did he skip in 2009?

aliceanne
08-25-2011, 08:57 PM
The 2010 Olympics were a disaster for Russia compared to previous Olympics. They came away with just one silver and 1 bronze. From 1976 - 2006 (as the Soviet Union, the Unified Team, and Russia) they won at least 2 gold medals in each Olympics except 1984 when they won 1. From 1964 - 1972, they won 1 gold in each Olympics in an era when there were just 3 events with no Ice Dance. Hence, 2010 was there worst Olympics since 1960 when they came away with absolutely nothing (1960 was the Squaw Valley Olympics which were a triumph for the United States - winning 2 Gold and 2 bronze - at the height of its supremacy just before the tragedy of the Sabena Flight 548 air disaster in 1961). In essence, ever since the Sabena Flight 548 air disaster in 1961, Russia has dominated figure skating for the most part right up to 2006. At the 2010 Olympics, however, Asia and North America shared the spoils with 2 Gold Medals apiece (the United States and China topping the medal table with a Gold and a Silver each)

Accordingly, with the Olympics coming up in Sochi in 2014, will Russia bounce back to take at least 1 Gold Medal?

I don't know if you are just talking about skating, but overall I would say yes. Their government is putting a lot of money and effort behind their athletes. That is half the battle for amateur sports. They fired the sports minister after Vancouver, so I think they will leave no stone unturned.

Given all of the economic turmoil in the U.S, the fact that the olympics are not being held in the U.S., and that winter olympic sports are not that popular with the public, I don't think there will be much government support here.

pani
08-25-2011, 09:13 PM
Hope V-T will win competition in pair skating.
Cant see how some os russin teams could compete against D-W and Shibs. But i think they have very good chance to take bronz medal. (after two teams from USA).
But we have long way to go. Maybe Sotnikova or Tuktamisheva will show there best at home OG?

FarFarAway
08-26-2011, 05:17 AM
I don't know if you are just talking about skating, but overall I would say yes. Their government is putting a lot of money and effort behind their athletes. That is half the battle for amateur sports. They fired the sports minister after Vancouver, so I think they will leave no stone unturned.


That is all very disputable. Despite all seemingly hard efforts the competition results in most of the winter sports still leave much to be desired. The situation with the figure skating improved, yes, but I guess, this is not only due to the reason of financing. If you take the biathlon results of the last season, you will see that almost nothing has changed.

Domshabfan
08-26-2011, 07:40 AM
Hope V-T will win competition in pair skating.
Cant see how some os russin teams could compete against D-W and Shibs. But i think they have very good chance to take bronz medal. (after two teams from USA).
But we have long way to go. Maybe Sotnikova or Tuktamisheva will show there best at home OG?

With Shibus, you have to remember a year before they won bronze at world they were out of medal at world juniors. Things change very quickly in ice dance, it is also possible non of the name you mentioned would medal.

aftershocks
08-27-2011, 04:37 PM
I found these quads by Artur Gachinski in practice (flip, loop, lutz)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=Lle_MKUW9ac

If he is able to land two of these in an LP in competition, it will be historic. Of course he will need to work on other aspects of this skating too, but I find it exciting when new jumps are added to the sport.

Gachinski has a grungy, youthful, Russian flair, but still he's very stiff and unpolished (rough around the edges). Perhaps his youth and Russian jump technique will aid his body in holding up under the grueling quad training practice. Gachinsky's music in the lp at Worlds really helped his performance. As far as "new" jumps being added to the sport, IMO, the only "new" or "historic" aspect is the extra revolution added to jumps that were invented circa late nineteenth, early twentieth-century. The lauded, taxing and difficult extra revolutions don't ring my bell, but c'est la vie in figure skating.

What would excite me tremendously is seeing Jason Brown master his triple axel, and eventually add the over-rated but necessary quad to his repertoire. Ding-a-ling -- a-ling!!! Same goes for seeing Dornbush continue to improve in all aspects. Not to mention seeing Adam and Jeremy triumph. Quads to me are not exciting (especially when landed like a ton of bricks) ... it's the whole of a program that matters, regardless of the judges' scoring.

Vash01
08-27-2011, 05:11 PM
Sorry, I have to disagree. If a Quad is "just an extra revolution", same should be said of the triples (extra revolution added to a double) and of a double (extra revolution to a single jump). I find it exciting when athletes push themselves to test their limits. If a quad was that easy, a lot more skaters would be doing it. After the retirements of Yagudin and Plushenko no skater took the challenge of landing the quad seriously. If you find it exciting to watch a skater that cannot even land a 3 axel- something that was not only routine but a almost a requirement (not by rules) to be on the podium, you must be watching a different sport (or a non-sport) from me.

aftershocks
08-27-2011, 06:23 PM
The same is true of double and trip jumps, Vash01. They are just extra revolutions added to jumps that were invented and performed first as single jumps about a century ago.

You miss my point re Jason Brown. His overall skating skills are so outstanding that it will indeed be exciting to me to see him master and land a well-executed triple axel -- definitely a routine requirement for the sport. Obviously, he must master the 3axel, and indeed add a quad to his repertoire in order to become a strong contender on the National and World scene. Absolutely I agree the quad is extremely challenging and complicated to master, but to me pointless if not performed well within the whole of a well put together program.

If you don't find Brown's 2011 U.S. Nats lp exciting to watch ... oh well. To each his own excitement.

You might be interested in this GSD discussion:

http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=79854&page=19


And in this article about quad and triple jumps in figure skating:

http://iceskatingresources.org/Triple&QuadJumps.html

Vash01
08-27-2011, 06:47 PM
Sorry, I don't go to GSD anymore. Their opinions are extremely biased in favor of NA skaters. I prefer the international crowd here. I get to hear different view points from different cultures.

If you don't like more revolutions to jumps, you should just watch ice dance. Why even bother calling this a sport? There were many skaters that had other skills but they could not land the jumps consistently, that's why they never made it at the world level. IMO that's the way it should be for a SPORT.