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Jenna
08-14-2011, 07:17 AM
Plushenko again:rolleyes:
We actually still don't know if he is going to have any starts this season and you still firmly believe he is one of the candidates for gold?

For winning gold in Sochi he will need to have a lot of work to be done. The skating changed and changed greatly since he last skated. If he returns with the programs of the same type, he will surely secure himself a place in the top 15, but definitely not in the top 3.

This thread is about predictions, NOT certainties. If Plushenko is skating in 2014 and he skates like he did in Vancouver, yes, I do believe he has a shot at the gold. I don't "firmly" believe anything, though. It's two and a half years out. That's just you putting words in my mouth.

RumbleFish
08-14-2011, 11:20 AM
Then which lady skater has the cleanest technique in the World right now if not Liza?

You would have to define cleanest technique first. Do you mean take-off edges? speed in and out of her jumps? or abilities to begin and finish rotations in the air?

I saw Tuk skate at the Jr Worlds and was somewhat disappointed at her jumps. She seems to have correct take-off edges but her jumps were smaller than I had expected, and didn't have great flow on landings.

It might have been her off day, but I certainly didn't see signs of THE cleanest technique. If you had said ONE OF cleanest techniques, I wouldn't have challenged your statement though.

justAfsfan
08-14-2011, 11:26 AM
I'm fine with any Russia's win except men or silver (if gold is locked for Chan!!!).

As I cannot stand the fact that Artur Gachinski might get on podium just because he land all jumps regardless of how his program will be.

FarFarAway
08-14-2011, 11:27 AM
If Plushenko is skating in 2014 and he skates like he did in Vancouver, yes, I do believe he has a shot at the gold.

If he skates in Sochi like he did in Vancouver he has a shot at the bronze at the maximum under the best possible circumstances. I would give the gold to Chan in this case definitely.

Plushenko's jumps are great, but since not long ago skating is not only about jumps;)

Autumn_girl
08-14-2011, 11:53 AM
You would have to define cleanest technique first. Do you mean take-off edges? speed in and out of her jumps? or abilities to begin and finish rotations in the air?

I saw Tuk skate at the Jr Worlds and was somewhat disappointed at her jumps. She seems to have correct take-off edges but her jumps were smaller than I had expected, and didn't have great flow on landings.

It might have been her off day, but I certainly didn't see signs of THE cleanest technique. If you had said ONE OF cleanest techniques, I wouldn't have challenged your statement though.

All of these actually. Liza has it all. She was nervious in the LP at JW and it was visible, her landings were a bit shaky, but when she's on her jumps are gorgeous. Look at her jumps in SP for example, great flow and speed, fully rotated, beautiful 3Lz-3T combo, tano 2A, and I especially liked her 3Lo landing. And she jumps really high considering how tiny she is.
I really don't know which nowdays lady skater has cleaner technique. Kim? Her toe jumps are great, but edge jumps - not so much, and she didn't do 3Lo for a while now. Other ladies have problems with edges and/or rotation of their jumps

babayaga
08-14-2011, 12:04 PM
What an interesting discussion, but somewhat rather suprising, actually.:rolleyes:



What I really cannot still understand is why people think that Liza and Adelina will surely have a claim for gold by 2014. If someone explains me this idea, I will be just very much obliged. They are both very young, they will start on Euros and Worlds only the NEXT season due to age reasons and in this season they are able to participate only at the GP cups. So no one actually have seen them performing at the serious senior competitions so far, but everyone is sure the gold in Sochi is almost theirs. But they will be right in the middle of the growing up process by that time:rolleyes:No one knows yet how it will influence the jumps and all the other things in their skating.



Of course I wasn't trying to say that "the gold in Sochi is almost hers" and I agree with the rest of what you say. Let me rephrase my statement a bit more carefully: given what I see from her today I think she could be a contender for gold in 2014 if everything goes well. She is not there yet but she has what it takes.

RumbleFish
08-14-2011, 01:00 PM
All of these actually. Liza has it all. She was nervious in the LP at JW and it was visible, her landings were a bit shaky, but when she's on her jumps are gorgeous. Look at her jumps in SP for example, great flow and speed, fully rotated, beautiful 3Lz-3T combo, tano 2A, and I especially liked her 3Lo landing. And she jumps really high considering how tiny she is.
I really don't know which nowdays lady skater has cleaner technique. Kim? Her toe jumps are great, but edge jumps - not so much, and she didn't do 3Lo for a while now. Other ladies have problems with edges and/or rotation of their jumps

Please don't get me wrong. I love Tuk's jumps, and I have repeatedly said on this board that either her or Sot has great chance of winning the GPF.

My problem is crowning her with title of having The Cleanest Technique. Don't you think it is a little premature since she has shown so little?

As for which skater has the best technique, I can only determine by looking at who did the best in a given day.

miki88
08-14-2011, 02:16 PM
Because I like Adelina's skating, I will not predict her to get the gold in Sochi, since we all know what tends to happen when we start crowning people four years in advance. But I'm unsure if Adelina really has the advantage over Liz in terms of jumps. Liz's jumps aren't as big but she does have better technique. I wonder if the judges will start scrutinizing Adelina's lutz more after she becomes a senior. It's borderline at least to me. Adelina has advantage over Liz in consistency and presentation at this point, but these things can change in the future.

Autumn_girl
08-14-2011, 02:27 PM
Please don't get me wrong. I love Tuk's jumps, and I have repeatedly said on this board that either her or Sot has great chance of winning the GPF.

My problem is crowning her with title of having The Cleanest Technique. Don't you think it is a little premature since she has shown so little?

As for which skater has the best technique, I can only determine by looking at who did the best in a given day.

You talk about an execution of the jumps on one given day or competition and I mean an overall quality of the jumps. Everything about Liza's jumps is just fine: entrances, air positions and landings. Maybe Yuna has better 3Lz-3T and Adelina has better 2A-3T combo, etc., but when it comes to the full set of triples Liza has an advantage because of her great basics, and I don't think it's premature to say she has the cleanest technique.
Of course, having good technique itself doesn't guarantee her anything, there are still nerves, pressure, puberty... But she already has solid basics and don't have to worry about fixing her take-off edges or anything and other girls have to.

blue_idealist
08-14-2011, 03:04 PM
I really don't know about ladies, because anything could happen with the 'wonderbabies.'

For the men, Gachinski could be a contender, but it's too early to say. I guess Plushenko would still have a chance if he comes back too, depending on how well he's skating. Something tells me Plushenko nor Gachinski will actually win the GOLD in Sochi, though.

Volosozhar and Trankov are a strong possibility for gold in Sochi. I think it'll be them up against Savchenko and Szolkowy, although other teams could become a factor and Pang and Tong will probably be in the mix if they stick around.

In ice dance it's hard to say. Ilinykh and Katsalapov are pretty good, but it's hard to picture them becoming a #1 team by 2014, especially if Davis and White are still competing.

RumbleFish
08-14-2011, 04:17 PM
You talk about an execution of the jumps on one given day or competition and I mean an overall quality of the jumps. Everything about Liza's jumps is just fine: entrances, air positions and landings. Maybe Yuna has better 3Lz-3T and Adelina has better 2A-3T combo, etc., but when it comes to the full set of triples Liza has an advantage because of her great basics, and I don't think it's premature to say she has the cleanest technique.
Of course, having good technique itself doesn't guarantee her anything, there are still nerves, pressure, puberty... But she already has solid basics and don't have to worry about fixing her take-off edges or anything and other girls have to.

I really don't want to discuss something that hasn't even happened yet. Sure, Tuk and Sot has done some nice jumps at the junior ranks, but we all know that little girls can spin like a top in the air and stuff done as jr ladies doesn't necessarily transfer to senior ranks.

BTW, Kim was capable of superb triple loops when she was a junior. She was doing magnificent triple loops during 07-08 season until she injured her hips. According to your logic, her jumps were THE cleanest in the world back then but not so clean during the Olys season. Does that really make sense to you? ;)

Sometimes shits like injuries and growth spurts do happen and may take away physical abilities or psychological forte to do certain jumps. I like Tuk a lot, but she will have to display strong jumps consistently for considerable amount of time for me to be acknowledge her jumps as THE cleanest in the World.

Jenna
08-14-2011, 04:31 PM
If he skates in Sochi like he did in Vancouver he has a shot at the bronze at the maximum under the best possible circumstances. I would give the gold to Chan in this case definitely.

Plushenko's jumps are great, but since not long ago skating is not only about jumps;)

Oh, I agree with you. I dislike Plushenko's skating. But nobody can deny his jumping abilities. I think Chan is the favorite right now, too. But a lot can happen in 2.5 years...injury, decline, etc. So I think it's too early to be too sure about anyone.

Maofan7
08-14-2011, 05:16 PM
I think Russia has a great chance of taking Gold in each of the 4 events with just under 3 years still to go. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva both have an excellent chance in the ladies. In the mens, Gachinski had a superb debut season finishing 3rd at the 2011 Worlds. He only turned 18 yesterday (belated happy birthday wishes!!) and he will improve a lot over the next 3 years. Plushenko may also come back. In the pairs, Volosozhar and Trankov had a fantastic debut season as a pairing winning Silver at the 2011 Worlds - just 6.12 behind S & S. They will improve a lot. In Ice Dance (probably Russia's weakest event at present), I think Ilinykh and Katsalapov will also improve a lot on their debut season in seniors, especially now that they are being coached by Nikolai Morozov. The juries still out on whether they will improve sufficiently to take Gold, but I think they certainly have a chance of making the podium at the very least.

mia joy
08-14-2011, 05:43 PM
^ while it's probably possible, I think it's quite unlikely, unless all Russian skaters are at their best in Sochi and all the rest are not. For now I don't see anyone capable of defeating an in-form Chan and even if, it's not gonna be Gachinski.

In dance the young Russians will have to go against top North American teams, likely including D/W, maybe even V/M and of course the Shibs and none of the teams is gonna go down without a fight. Of course I'm not saying they don't have a shot at gold, just saying it's not gonna be easy.

I'd say V/T will be the favourites next to S/S and the form of a day is gonna decide who takes the gold.

Russian wonderbabies may take the lead in the ladies event, but they may as well be attacked by the puberty monster inbetween and you never know what happens. If Mao doesn't put herself together i don't see a strong rival for them, but 3 years is a lot of time in the case of such young girls.

I do believe Russia will win at least one gold, though. Seems they're getting back on track with all the new/young skaters/teams they support so strongly.

Proustable
08-14-2011, 06:38 PM
Because you cannot predict whether a skater/pair will stop growing or not. I am not even a S&S fan, but I am not going to say they will not get better. Anyone that continues to skate has a chance to.

I would not crown either of these two pairs yet as Olympic champs because Sochi is more than 2 years away. Other pairs have the time to develop and challenge them.

Ah, so it just seems you're being wise and avoiding meaningless speculation. Which is totally fair and correct.

I do think Russia's well place to get at least one gold medal in Sochi. They're particularly well placed in pairs and ladies. Pairs because they've clearly got one of the top teams and the gap between the top and the rest is huge, whereas ladies just seems to be all over the place. They have a ways to go in mens and dance.