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museksk8r
07-26-2011, 11:29 PM
Mao skated two incredible programs at 4cc but she still had mistakes and therefor didn't deliever her best, had she made just one or two less mistakes she would have won that competition.
the same could be said about Kim if she didn't make those mistakes at worlds she would have won. but since neither asada nor kim where in there best condition last season so ando winning with two totally clean performance doesn't indicate anything.

Ando wasn't totally clean at Worlds. She reduced a planned 2Axel+3toe to a 2Axel+2toe with a very noticeable turn-out. Plus, in a post-LP interview, she said that one of her spins wasn't good. 4CC was her best showing of the season without a doubt.

miki88
07-26-2011, 11:48 PM
Kim skating incredibly would crush Ando. The Russian youngsters will too if they pan out as good as expected. So if Asada skating incredibly (previous posters words, not mine) cant even beat Ando anymore then that only further indicates how much trouble she is in going forward.

Well, last season, Miki was skating better than she has probably ever had (at least in a while). I am not a fan of her skating but you gotta hand it to her when it came to her consistency. If "incredible" refers to Olympic or pre-Olympic level performances, then none of the other top skaters reached their previous levels this past season.

Ziggy
07-27-2011, 01:43 AM
Miki Ando is world champion, so I don't quite understand your thinking.

The level in Ladies was very weak. Ando's lackluster FS would never win otherwise.

Proustable
07-27-2011, 01:43 AM
I would say those scores are deceiving to a point. Do you really believe Flatt would beat Sotnikova with both skating their best for instance. Juniors scores tend to be lower.

Or, a more direct comparison would point out that despite Leonova having a higher international score Sotnikova, Sotnikova has beaten Leonova head to head (Russian Nationals), that personal bests are innacurate due to scoring changes season to season (and leaps certainly aren't that uncommon - to wit, Patrick Chan and Yu Na Kim).

I will very impressed with Nagasu if she makes the final. She tends to peak later in the season, two events back to back, lots of travelling (LA to Missisauga to (LA to) Shanghai. Making the final means she likely medalled at both events (and with CoC's current slate, that's impressive, imo). I'd be even more impressed if she won the GPF after that.

RumbleFish
07-27-2011, 03:44 AM
I have seen both Sot and Tuk live at the Jr Worlds last season and they were very impressive indeed.

If they skate to their capabilities, and the rest skate like they did at last year's GPF, Sot and Tuk will definitely be the top 2 skaters. I don't necessarily mean to say that they will end up with gold and silver, as I have doubts about judging in figure skating.

I also like Agnes Zawadzki this year. She has huge jumps and fine spins, and most of all, I felt that she skates with heart. I think this trait, with some improvements in overall flow of her skating, could take her a long way.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a duplicate of last year's jr Worlds podium in coming season's GPF.

pinky166
07-27-2011, 04:56 AM
I said Adelina. It could be Mao, Mirai, or Carolina though. Or anyone really. Wide open affair. I will say that I think Adelina will fair better on the circuit than Liza though, I would not be at all surprised if Adelina wins both her events and medals at/wins the final while Liza has middle of the pack finishes. Idk Liza is very talented but she seems prone to mistakes and her 3-3 was MIA a lot last season, so idk how far she can expect to get without it.

Maofan7
07-27-2011, 05:23 AM
I know there is no direct correlation of scores from one competition to another. Yet Mao has a combined international personal best of 205, Mirai at 190, Kostner at 184, Czisny and flatt at 182. Sotnikova has slightly under 179. We all know any of the top skaters can have a bad day, but I can't see Sotnikova jumping over all these veterans.

What you need to understand is that the scores for junior girls will always be lower than those of senior ladies because there are less required elements in the programs for junior girls compared to senior ladies. For example, in the free program there is 1 less element - junior girls do not have to do a spiral sequence. Furthermore, a junior free program only last 3 minutes 30 seconds whereas a senior ladies free program last 4 minutes. Accordingly, the top score for Mao, Mirai, and Kostner is bound to be higher than Sotnikova's and Tuktamysheva's as the juniors have less scoring opportunities than the seniors!!

The really impressive aspect about Sotnikova is that she had the top score (junior or senior) until well into last season (with Tuktamysheva having the second highest score) despite the fact that juniors have less scoring opportunities. Indeed, her score of 178.97 was the leading score right up until the 11th December 2010 when the senior ladies Grand Prix final took place where Alissa Czisny finally beat it with a score of 180.75. (but only by a margin of 1.78 despite the fact that as a senior, Czisny had far greater scoring opportunities than Sotnikova). Now that really is impressive! And it indicates that once Sotnikova is skating a full seniors program, she could potentially score well in excess of 200 points. Furthermore, Tuktamysheva's scores were not that far behind Sotnikova's during the 2010/11 season and she is also in with an excellent chance of winning the Grand Prix final and of scoring in excess of 200 points.

RockTheTassel
07-27-2011, 06:09 AM
I'm a little surprised that Mao and Mirai are getting so many votes, considering that Mao hasn't qualified during the last two seasons and Mirai only has one GP medal total.

I ended up voting for Carolina. I just have a feeling that she'll have a good year. But like last season, it's pretty much anyone's to take. If we'd had a prediction thread last year, I'm sure next to no one would have said Alissa even had a shot at qualifying.

icellist
07-27-2011, 07:43 AM
While i do think that Adelina is the technical goddess of figure skating right now, her skating continues to look junior-ish to me compared to Mao and Yuna the years they were juniors. Adelina is great with jumps but some of her spins are ugly and step sequences are not as strong as current seniors. I still think it's too early to judge the Adelina and Elizaveta. Artistically, they are still very behind and hence I don't want to predicate them when the final. Adelina looks bored when she's skating, probably focusing too much on jumps and Elizaveta reminds me too much of Johnny Weir. I would actually judge them closer than everyones perception of Adelina>Elizaveta. For me Adelina has the technical advantage but Elizaveta edges her out in PCS, but her skating is still junior-ish to me.

Mao has not started the season strong in a long time so I'm not predicting her to make the final but most likely medal strongly at 4CC. I'm giving Mao another pass ticket this season because the ultimate goal is Sochi and I'm only looking for improvement this year, not a bunch of medals this season. I wonder if Mao has considered stop skating so many shows during the off season, it must really take away from her training. She really doesn't need the money...

My personal favorite is Mirai. I think people are voting for her because she does have the potential and are hoping very very much that she can bring it. She has great flow in step sequences and out of jumps. She really listens to music. Her jumps always look clean to me. Beautiful spins and strong lines. Sounds like Mao but Mirai looks more effortless. I still can't understand why Mirai's short was so underscored last year... Her skating has matured for me while keeping joy in her skating. The only thing that Mirai lacks is consistency on her triple triple.

Alissa Czisny is a beautiful skater, one of the best artistically. Her spins are beautiful, even though I don't like her arm positions in some of them... Alissa will go for as a pro-skater, but I don't think she can maintain competitive much longer. Her step sequences dont always look effortless. Her jump content isn't up to par as some other top skaters, and that includes wrong edges on some jumps. The lack of triple triple is also a factor. Alissa came out strong last year, when the women's field was very very weak.

Carolina Kostner is the PCS goddess. I'd wish she up her technical content, but I'd be scared because she skates so fast and falling at her speed is like a zamboni on rocket fuel. I would give Kostner the highest PCS in any competition if she's "on". I wish she would change her programs though, theyre getting a bit boring. The only other skater that comes close to PCS would be Laura Lepisto.

Considering how most skaters peak later in the season, I would be betting that consistency can prevail at the GPF. There are so many outcomes for first or silver, but Akiko Suzuki will probably get third or fourth, but it really just depends on who makes it to the final anyway. I really think we should vote "Who will win ladies [enter GP event]?" before the GPF because since entrance to the final is still totally wide open. I am almost sure that Caroline Kostner will make the final because of her 3 entries and Adelina, beccause of her technical consistency and since so many of you are fans of her...

Can we make a new multiple choice poll voting for who will MAKE the GPF instead? It's still too early and too wide open to vote on this situation yet.

babayaga
07-27-2011, 11:43 AM
I'm a little surprised that Mao and Mirai are getting so many votes, considering that Mao hasn't qualified during the last two seasons and Mirai only has one GP medal total.

I ended up voting for Carolina. I just have a feeling that she'll have a good year. But like last season, it's pretty much anyone's to take. If we'd had a prediction thread last year, I'm sure next to no one would have said Alissa even had a shot at qualifying.

I voted for Mao but I admit it was more of what I wish will happen rather than a prediction. As for Mirai, I am pretty sure she will make the final this year. She is mad at herself for doing poorly last season and is determined to do well. She had plenty of time to train and her season starts early this year. I think Mirai can win Skate Canada and medal at Cup of China easily and then do pretty well at the final despite of how she skated in the past.

miki88
07-27-2011, 12:16 PM
For me Adelina has the technical advantage but Elizaveta edges her out in PCS, but her skating is still junior-ish to me.

Really? I think it's the other way around. Liza has wonderful technique on almost all of her jumps. Her jumps are really beautiful, but the same can't be said of her choreography. I feel Adelina is the more elegant one at this point.


I wonder if Mao has considered stop skating so many shows during the off season, it must really take away from her training. She really doesn't need the money...

The only show she is doing this off season is The Ice. She isn't even listed for Japan Open.

kwanatic
07-27-2011, 02:51 PM
I agree with icellist. It's always pointless to start predicting the GPF winner when the series hasn't even started yet. Skating is so unpredictable and people change from season to season. At this point, all we have to go off of is what happened last season. For that reason, I'll just give my hopes for next season's GP.

Mao, Kanako, Akiko: I want to Mao continue to improve. If I really had my way, Mao would skip the GP altogether and show up for nationals, 4CC, and worlds. I really think she needs an extended break to get herself together. But, if she's going to be competing, I want to see her really work on her technique and her attack. Kanako has hit a growth spurt and looks so much more mature and womanly. I'm hoping there won't be a repeat of Jumping Jack this year. Though it was my favorite SP from last season (so much fun!) that was a one-time deal. She needs to show a more mature side. Good thing for Kanako is that she's very versatile when it comes to music. I love her musicality and personality and I'm hoping to see a different side of her this season. As for Akiko, I love her. No matter what happens in the standings, you know she's going to go out there and perform two fabulously done programs with a ton of energy and personality...that's why I love her. I don't know if the judges will ever give her her due, but I always enjoy watching her skate.

Adelina, Liza T and Alena: Well, I'm excited to see how the newbies adjust to competing at a higher level. Adelina is the more polished skater. Her movements have maturity and finish to them which is something you don't see in skaters her age. She has great control, stroking, speed and she jumps to the ceiling! I'm in awe of her. As gorgeous as her lines are, all of that changes when she spins. IMO, none of the Russian girls are strong spinners. Their positions are rather weak, angular and unappealing. Adelina needs to work on her layback in particular. Liza T is a very charismatic skater. She has the technical goods but she's very tiny compared to Adelina and other senior skaters. Hopefully she'll hit her growth spurt this summer and weather it, which shouldn't be a problem because she's got excellent technique on her jumps. Liza T's not as powerful as Adelina but she packs a similar punch. Her 3-3 isn't as consistent as Adelina's but she's a very charismatic skater and in terms of fire and excitement, she takes the cake. If she wants to establish herself as a serious threat, she should look to work that 3A into her layout this season. Nothing says "I'm Here!" like a 3A and hers is lovely. As for Alena, I think it'll be more of the same: weird costumes, choreography and hair. I don't see her beating Adelina though...or Liza T on a good day either...

Mirai, Alissa and Rachael: Mirai is my favorite US lady. My hope is that her brain finally clicked into place at 4CC and that she'll begin skating like that more often. Hopefully she's gained some focus this summer and will bring that to competition next season. She's incredible and it's time she starts skating like it. I'd like to see a more mature Mirai this season. That's going to be what sets her apart from the newer girls and that's what she needs to sell. My fingers are crossed for her... Alissa had a great year last season and I hope to see her continue. I don't know how her nerves will hold up under the added pressure of tougher competition, but she's got nothing to lose at this point. Unfortunately, her lack of speed, soft nature and lack of difficulty will hurt her against more explosive and energetic skaters (Mirai, Adelina, Liza T, Kanako, etc.). As for Rachael, my hope is that she doesn't get lost in the shuffle. She lacks fire, appeal, etc. that other skaters have and if she doesn't come with some better programs this year, she could find herself getting the brush-off from the judges. It remains to be seen if any of the judges will hold her worlds performances against her.

Carolina had a wonderful year last season but I really would like to see her re-insert the difficulty back into her routines. Point is, whenever she skates, she scores big b/c she flies around out there at top speed, has lovely well-done programs and she has some of the best edges in skating. Still, I don't want to see her getting by with 3Ts, 3Lps, and 3Ss all next season...

Who would I like to see in the final?: Mao, Kanako, Carolina, Mirai, Adelina and Liza T...

Podium I would love to see?: Mirai, Mao, Adelina...

Of course, this is based on preference and nothing more...we'll have to wait to see what actually happens:rollin:

Ziggy
07-28-2011, 01:36 AM
Both Adelina and Liza are clearly lacking in the PCS aspect but at list Tuk is skating to the music, which seems totally beyond Sot at this point. :P

With Sot, it seems like they are trying to give her this elegant, classical, balletic look but I don't feel her basics are strong enough to carry it at this point.

Tuk's programs suit her much better.

I don't know how much they are going to improve during the off-season, but if I was judging their last season's programs, their PCS would be clearly behind all the top Senior Ladies (no idea what the judges are going to do, though).

However, even with PCS far behind, if they land their jumps, they'll probably blow everyone else out of the water considering how inconsistent all the Senior Ladies tend to be.

This season's GP series is going to be extremely exciting to watch.

How are Tuk and Sot are going to be judged against senior ladies?

How is Lepisto's skating going to look after a whole season off with injury?

Will Mao come back strong with improved basics and technique?

Will Alissa be able to continue improving her consistency?

Will we see the flip and lutz solo and in combination back in Kostner's routines?

etc.

shine
07-28-2011, 02:23 AM
I voted for Sotnikova because she seems to be on a roll and the judgse are absolutely enamoured with her. I see Kim/Asada kind of adoration from the judges in her senior debut season. However, I often see posters talk about her elegance but beyond straight extended leg line I actually don't see that much natural elegance in her skating. I do agree she has fabulous basics and power though. For me Tuktamysheva has a slight aritsitc advantage at this point. Her programs are more interestnig and like some have mentioend, she actually skates to the music. As for the GPF, I'd love to see Kostner, Asada and Suzuki there.

champs
07-28-2011, 04:20 PM
No one seems to talk about Ksenia or Ashley so I will root for them to make it to the final and hope them to win medals no matter how slim the chances are.