View Full Version : Are the 4Cs Ladies Results 1 Step Back or 2 Steps Forward heading to Moscow?
03-28-2011, 03:07 AM
It already seems like a long time ago that Taiwan played host to this year's 4Continents. For some - they stepped up like the champion Ando for others like Canada's Phaneuf and American Czisny - they faltered.
How will the results from 4Cs impact your choice of "favourites" going into Worlds Ladies competition?
If you are willing to be quoted on the CBC broadcast - please end your response with an OK - if you just want to share your thoughts - that's great too :) Thanks for your support! Cheers :) Pj
03-28-2011, 03:14 AM
Normally, I think 4CC's is a pretty good indication of how a skater will do at worlds -of course there are always exceptions - but I think this year, they're too far apart to really say. A few weeks vs. over two months could make a huge difference, either for bad or for good, for the way certain skaters will perform at worlds. It will certainly be interesting to see who will benefited from the extra time and who won't.
03-28-2011, 03:20 AM
Miki Ando's win makes me think she has a greater chance of beating Mao Asada and Yu-Na Kim for the world title. In the fall, I didn't think she had much of a chance against them but now I've changed my mind. Cynthia's result doesn't worry me though because I know she is sometimes inconsistent and can bounce back.
03-28-2011, 04:04 AM
The way I see it, 4CCs sent this message:
Miki is a forced to be reckoned with and seems poised to medal if not win at Worlds.
Mao and Rachael are on the upswing and I expect both will skate well at the Worlds and not bomb like they did earlier in the season. That being said, I'm not sure if either will bring her A game at Worlds.
Alissa and Cynthia are hot and cold skaters and their results this season, including 4CC, further prove this point. I doubt either will bomb at Worlds, but I could see one and/or both doing very well (maybe medaling) at Worlds, or having another "cold" competition. I would not be surprised either way.
03-28-2011, 04:22 AM
4CCs was too close to US and Canadian Nationals so it's no surprise that the North American skaters who were paced to peak at their Nationals (and then later at Worlds) didn't do so well there. Nagasu's medal vindicated my point earlier that USFS should have had a skate off for the second spot at 4CCs between Nagasu and Flatt.
To me Ando skated her absolute best there. Asada and Czisny still had room for improvement with their performances and could definitely still beat Ando at Worlds.
03-28-2011, 05:08 AM
Not at all. How many watched 2002 US nationals and thought "Gosh, Hughes is going to kick Kwan's butt in SLC!", or watched Torino Olys and thought "Oh, Kimmie Meisner will definitely win 2006 worlds!"? The 2006 OGM didn't even make the GPF a month earlier. Every competition is a clean slate, and it's anybody's game.
03-28-2011, 05:15 AM
I think there's little correlation, if any, between the two, since the two competitions are so far apart, time-wise. I think everyone's tweaking their training plans and trying to figure it out right now.
03-28-2011, 05:34 AM
I don't think results of this year's 4CC ladies event will serve as indication of placements at the Worlds. Firstly, schedule was too close to respective national championships for North American skaters for them to prepare properly and show their top form. Secondly, judging at the ladies' event was one of the worst I've ever seen. Some skaters didn't get deducted for two-footed and underrotated jumps, and some were given +2 and even +3 GOEs for mediocre elements.
At Worlds, all these things will be different. All competitors will be on the same starting point in terms of conditioning, and try to bring their best condition. And hopefully, judging will be under more scrutiny and hence lead to more reasonable results.
03-28-2011, 06:29 AM
I don't see results of 4CC indicating anything as far as worlds go. Typically skaters going to worlds don't even compete at 4CC. This year Mao & Miki were both in it. Still, without Yu na and the Europeans, we can't really draw conclusions about worlds, just like we cannot do that based on the Europeans.
03-28-2011, 07:32 AM
I don't think the results of any competition have any bearing on what will happen in future competitions even a week apart.
03-28-2011, 08:40 AM
I thought that some of the skaters who went to the GPF looked a little tired and off their game. Alissa Czisny is a case in point. She did two Grand Prix events in Canada and Paris, and the GPF in Beijing in the space of three months. This was followed by Nationals in the US in January and then Taipei for 4CC, in February. That's a brutal schedule. If she didn't skate well at 4CC, I'm prepared to cut her some slack based on her travel itinerary.
Miki Ando skated Cup of China and Cup of Russia as well as doing the GPF in Beijing. She hasn't had those 20 hour flights and the resultant jet lag to contend with. Japanese Nationals are in late December so she also had a longer break between Nationals and 4CC to rest and prepare than the North American skaters.
Rachael Flatt, who is generally "Miss Consistency" had a rough outing at the GPF, due to ill health. 4CC was her third trip to Asia this season, since she competed at NHK and the GPF but she rebounded from her disappointing skates at the GPF to skate well at both Nationals and 4CC.
For those skaters who have really racked up the frequent flyer miles this season, the long break between 4CC/Europeans and Worlds may give them time to recover from all of the travel, spend some quality time in the practice rink, and perhaps arrive at Worlds in better shape than they would have been had the competition gone off as originally scheduled.
03-28-2011, 12:09 PM
In terms of the notion of past performance being the best indicator of future performance, I'm hestitant to give 4CC too much weight for reasons other people have mentioned, and also that giving one competition too much weight (such as "what have you done for me lately? okay, I'll assume you'll be doing that next") can lead to some really false expectations (the fluke factor, etc). So I'm not going to assume skaters are the favorites/not the favorites based on their performance at 4CC, but my expectations for, example, Asada are higher than they were (ie, I don't feel so much of a fool for assuming she'll medal), and my expectations of Czisny are getting the usual cold water of "don't get your hopes up" because, while she's been on a streak, she's still Czisny and there's a history there.
So I think 4CC does weigh into my expectatons, but not heavily weighed enough to tip the scales of favorites to win, because it's just another data point, and not the only thing/the most important factor taken into account. OTOH, my predictions are always so very, very wrong. ;)
03-28-2011, 12:47 PM
Yu-na , even with all her ability, faces the most hurdles of any of the top skaters who will be competing: no competitions prior to the event and the effects of the delay of Worlds. I suspect many of the skaters have become quite rattled by all that has happened. The situation bodes well for a skater like Rachael Flatt, who has competitive nerves of steel similar to Kween Kwan and regroups quickly. Ando has had a calmness about her this season and great solidity too. But the events in Japan could effect her skating for good or bad. She is the only one I feel confident about being on the podium. I will be surprised if there aren't quite a few surprises in the outcome. All that being said and re 4CC, with one single competition I take the same position I do with stocks----past performance is not a good predictor of future performance.
This year it's a bit different because of the amount of time that would have passed between 4CC and Worlds. Let's forget about Yuna for a sec- one can clearly see that the Japanese ladies Ando and Asada are on the upswing, and Ando in particular may have hit her peak. I'd have them as the favorites. Nagasu did well for herself but she's not going to be a factor, so let's skip to Flatt and Czisny. I like that Flatt was able to fully recover from her dismal showing at the GPF and put in two strong performances at 4CC. Still, that said, I think her FS will hold her back from really contending for a podium spot UNLESS one or more of the Japanese ladies (or Yuna Kim) falter big-time. As for Czisny, well- we've said it before. Hot-and-cold, inconsistent. However, she did not melt down and that can be seen as a positive. I want to see her peak towards the end of the season for once, rather than at the beginning.
Due to the amount of time that will have passed, though, I think the results of 4CC may be more insignificant than usual.
03-29-2011, 05:03 PM
In a nutshell, the results from 4cc wouldn't affect my favorites in the world podium. Like others said, north american ladies couldn't get through the competition well mostly because the schedule of their nationals was somewhat conflicted with the 4cc. The japanese ladies were great, showed their potentials at the event and also are likely to deliver at the worlds but with Yuna coming up, and if american ladies go feisty, I guess the results of four continents wouldn't be a mirror factoring the favorites.
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