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allezfred
02-22-2011, 08:26 PM
If Kostner tries to add content to her LP I predict she'll be in big trouble. She can't even skate clean doing toe loops and salchows. If she tries to add the lutz and flip I bet she turns into a mess. Because the Europeans have no one else Kostner is always getting ridiculous overmarked. Worlds will be the same but without the big jumps I don't see her as a threat to the podium.

You make it sound like Kostner has never landed a triple flip or triple lutz in her career. You've been told before that she left them out during the Grand Prix because of an injury. Are you so thick that you can't understand that?

As for your obsession with the Euro bloc, the idea that non-Italian judges are someone boosting her because there is no other European contender is :rofl:

Jenna
02-22-2011, 08:41 PM
So you essentialy agree with exactly what I said, that Murakami is easily competitive with Flatt in both TES and PCS.

LOL scoring at Four Continents was MORE inflated than the Olympics easily. Mao Asada skated a worse LP than at the Olympics as far as scoring merit but scored several points higher. And Yu Na Kim skating her best would beat Miki Ando without even a triple-triple attempt by even more than 15 points in the LP. Not to mention when you consider the skaters are doing one less element now.

Mao did not skate a worse LP than the Olympics. Remember in Vancouver, she did a single toe loop and a heavily cheated triple flip. Also, she didn't score "several points" higher. She only beat her free skate from the Olympics by one point, and that is only because the PCS at the Games were through the roof across the board.

Mao's base value at the 2010 Olympics: 55.86
Mao's base value at the 2011 Four Continents: 62.79

b-man
02-22-2011, 08:50 PM
For number's fun sake :

Average International total score from top contenders:

1 ANDO, Miki JPN 180.29
2 CZISNY, Alissa USA 170.43
3 MURAKAMI, Kanako JPN 167.68
4 KOSTNER, Carolina ITA 166.66
5 KORPI, Kiira FIN 162.30
6 ASADA, Mao JPN 159.24
7 FLATT, Rachael USA 157.95
8 MAKAROVA, Ksenia RUS 152.40
9 LEONOVA, Alena RUS 149.69

Median International total score from top contenders:

1 ANDO, Miki JPN 173.81
2 MURAKAMI, Kanako JPN 170.99
3 CZISNY, Alissa USA 170.59
4 KOSTNER, Carolina ITA 166.58
5 KORPI, Kiira FIN 164.02
6 FLATT, Rachael USA 161.95
7 MAKAROVA, Ksenia RUS 156.25
8 LEONOVA, Alena RUS 148.61
9 ASADA, Mao JPN 148.02

Seasons International Scores Standard Deviation:

1 KORPI, Kiira FIN 8.18
2 CZISNY, Alissa USA 8.68
3 KOSTNER, Carolina ITA 9.82
4 LEONOVA, Alena RUS 11.90
5 MURAKAMI, Kanako JPN 13.18
6 ANDO, Miki JPN 14.06
7 MAKAROVA, Ksenia RUS 14.90
8 FLATT, Rachael USA 22.03
9 ASADA, Mao JPN 32.92

LOL, who woul've thought Czisny, Korpi and Kostner will be the most consistent skaters of the year..
The numbers for Asada and Flatt are tricky thanks to her bombings at TEB and GPF respectively.
If they go relatively clean (cause we know for sure a full clean event in Ladiezz does not exist :D) and we add Yu-Na to the equation, I see Czisny with Top 5 potential and Rachael with top 8 potential. Safe enough for the 3 spots..

You should add Nagasu's scores to the list, so everyone knows what they will be missing!

smarts1
02-22-2011, 08:53 PM
So you essentialy agree with exactly what I said, that Murakami is easily competitive with Flatt in both TES and PCS.

LOL scoring at Four Continents was MORE inflated than the Olympics easily. Mao Asada skated a worse LP than at the Olympics as far as scoring merit but scored several points higher. And Yu Na Kim skating her best would beat Miki Ando without even a triple-triple attempt by even more than 15 points in the LP. Not to mention when you consider the skaters are doing one less element now.

That must be a joke. Miki can almost match Yuna on GOE on jumps when she's on, and even more for her edge jumps (something Yuna lacks). Both do lack polish (toe pointing, etc), even if Yuna is a better spinner. Besides that, the only thing that sets Miki and Yuna apart is the Yuna's attention to detail and artistry and speed (but then again, quite honestly Yuna does 5 million crossovers into everything, especially the lutz).

krenseby
02-22-2011, 09:20 PM
It's great for a country to qualify three skaters for Worlds, but really, not the end of the world if it doesn't happen. Life and skating will go on, I promise.

I don't agree.

With her 4CC skate, Mirai has proved that she is mentally and physically fit enough to finish 4th or 5th at Worlds.

This could be a tremendous accomplishment. But Mirai won't have the chance to achieve it.

But of course, other ladies will benefit from Mirai's absence. They will have one less strong competitor to contend with. Mirai is good enough to be at the very top of the field, but apparently not good enough to participate in the competition.

genevieve
02-22-2011, 09:25 PM
I don't agree.

With her 4CC skate, Mirai has proved that she is mentally and physically fit enough to finish 4th or 5th at Worlds.

This could be a tremendous accomplishment. But Mirai won't have the chance to achieve it.

...Mirai is good enough to be at the very top of the field, but apparently not good enough to participate in the competition.
Well, she definitely wasn't good enough to get silver or higher at Nationals, which she knew was what she needed to do to go to Worlds. Honestly, it's not like she was amazing at Nats and someone took her Worlds spot away from her.

RD
02-22-2011, 09:26 PM
Boo hoo...Nagasu made her own bed by bombing the FS last year. And despite that, she could have gone to worlds again this year...but of all things, messed up a SPIN...she only has herself to blame, really. Sorry if I sound down on her, but it's the reality- it's nice that she was able to do so well at 4CCs, but that was a non-pressure event for her since it was her last event of the season.

olympic
02-22-2011, 09:50 PM
Boo hoo...Nagasu made her own bed by bombing the FS last year. And despite that, she could have gone to worlds again this year...but of all things, messed up a SPIN...she only has herself to blame, really. Sorry if I sound down on her, but it's the reality- it's nice that she was able to do so well at 4CCs, but that was a non-pressure event for her since it was her last event of the season.

How many points did she lose on the spin? Was it enough to catch Rachael's 121 pts.?

Also to consider is that Mirai would be going to Worlds, but for her bombing the LP at '10 Worlds. She didn't even need an Olympic caliber performance there. Hell, if she would've stood up on the final 2x in that LP, she may have snagged the Bronze and along w/ Rachael's 9th place, that would have been 12 pts. and all of Alissa, Rachael and Mirai would be going to Tokyo. Thinking about it makes me :wall:

rfisher
02-22-2011, 10:03 PM
Why isnt' this thread in the Trash Can where it belongs? :saint:

My sentiment exactly.


I don't care who wins, but I will LMAO if Flatt stands on the podium. As for those who suggested USFSA should use 4CCs as the criteria for Worlds, I notice you didn't mention the GP series. Good thing since Mirai tanked her LP both times. Oops.

RD
02-22-2011, 10:07 PM
Also to consider is that Mirai would be going to Worlds, but for her bombing the LP at '10 Worlds. She didn't even need an Olympic caliber performance there. Hell, if she would've stood up on the final 2x in that LP, she may have snagged the Bronze and along w/ Rachael's 9th place, that would have been 12 pts. and all of Alissa, Rachael and Mirai would be going to Tokyo. Thinking about it makes me :wall:
only one word describes it: Unbelievable.

b-man
02-22-2011, 10:16 PM
Well, she definitely wasn't good enough to get silver or higher at Nationals, which she knew was what she needed to do to go to Worlds. Honestly, it's not like she was amazing at Nats and someone took her Worlds spot away from her.

Well, if you like a "World Championships" without a skater with the 3rd highest international score of the year, that is your privilege. However, it appears to be a dimished championship when the best skaters aren't present.
It is not Nagasu's fault that 3 of the top 5 international scores are in the US this year. So on a bad day she scored 177, which is within a point of Kostner's or Murakami's best international score this year.

RD
02-22-2011, 10:58 PM
Well, if you like a "World Championships" without a skater with the 3rd highest international score of the year, that is your privilege. However, it appears to be a dimished championship when the best skaters aren't present.
It is not Nagasu's fault that 3 of the top 5 international scores are in the US this year. So on a bad day she scored 177, which is within a point of Kostner's or Murakami's best international score this year.

Still, it was on her after doing so well at the Olympics...as another poster pointed out, if she ONLY stood up on the 2A (and performed everything else the same) she would likely have hung onto bronze, and thus 3 spots this year.. I really have a tough time feeling sorry for her due to that situation.

We just have to hope that Czisny and Flatt can get it done this time. We really could use that third spot, particularly with the talent coming up the ranks.

os168
02-22-2011, 11:10 PM
Besides that, the only thing that sets Miki and Yuna apart is the attention to detail and artistry.

You are kidding right?

Were you playing Yuna at half speed with ear muffs on?

os168
02-22-2011, 11:22 PM
It is regrettable Mirai won't be going to the worlds, to me, she's still US's best female skater who might have had mental block on occasion, but these things can be overcome with more maturity and experience. Things like that unfortunately takes time, careful management and a little bit of luck.

She can do it, just like at 4CCs.

Even though she may not be consistent, she has proved at her best condition, she is US's best chance of medal. She is currently ranked on the ISU Ranking for

8th Best ISU FS ever (Rachel is 15th)
5th Best ISU SP ever (Rachel is 11th)
8th Best Total best ISU score ever (Rachel is 12th)

I prefer excitement, thrills and passion over mediocrity done consistently.

This is figure skating, a live spectator event. We need stars to cheer for, rather than participants that take part because they 'might' not do as badly.

Squibble
02-22-2011, 11:36 PM
There's a part of me that wants to see a Worlds podium of Kostner, Ando, and Flatt, in that order, just so that I can :watch: all the :argue: at FSU.

:EVILLE: