PDA

View Full Version : The 2011 World Ladies' Bronze medallist...



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Coco
02-22-2011, 12:19 PM
"totally clean Carolina or Alissa"

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

olympic
02-22-2011, 12:48 PM
Maybe, it will be good for Alissa that Jeremy won't be at Worlds. So far, the two seem to be "taking turns" ... where one medals, the other does not.

This may have something to do with the amount of attention Alissa gets from Yuka and Jason when both she and Jeremy compete at the same competition?


I still don't have faith in Alissa to pull it all together. And Rachael well she could skate clean and still finish in 9th place and that won't get it done either.


Alissa fell after the SP and still ended up scoring almost the same score as Makarova and Meier at Europeans. Makarova even landed a 3t+3t as well. The scoring at europeans was very generous, however at 4cc scoring even more generous especially with the GOE.

I do think Alissa would have been far behind after the short program if they all skated in one competition and Meier, Korpi and Makarova would have finished higher than alissa and Rachel after the sp. Final result would have been very interesting.

at the world i think, the placement will be

1-3) Miki, Mao, Yuna
4-7) Korpi, Kostner, Murakami, Alissa
8-11) Leonova, Flatt, Phaneuf, Makarova.

So my feeling is that Japan might be the only team to have 3 spots for next year, with US having a very remote chance to get three spot. however, not that high as some of you are predicting here.


If everyone skated cleanly at Worlds the final results would be something like:

1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Ando
4. Kostner or Czisny
6. Korpi or Nagasu

Nagasu wouldnt even be close to winning a medal in that scenario. And she is more inconsistent than the first 3 and just as inconsistent as Kostner, Czisny, and Korpi really.

I'm downright amazed at the no. of people who seem to believe that Rachael who scored 180 pts at 4CCs, and is pretty reliable, and has the 4th highest score this season is going to finish behind jump-limited, headcase Kostner and splatarific Korpi whose best score is double digits behind Flatt. IT seems you are all counting on Korpi to skate lights out without taking into account her season. Murakami is the no. 3 JPN lady and I don't think she'll be given generous PCS at worlds either. The only person I'd bet money on to skate easily ahead is Kim.

I also am willing to give Alissa another chance. She looked exhausted at 4CCs - more so than others. The trip to Worlds will probably be a little less stressful than to Taipei and she'll have a little more downtime leading up to it.

SkateSkates
02-22-2011, 01:00 PM
I don't see why Alissa couldn't finish 5th, and Rachael couldn't finish 8th. That leaves room for Kim, Ando, Asada, and Murukami/Kostner finishing 1st-4th, and Murukami/Kostner finishing 6th and Korpi finishing 7th. This is a very possible situation, as Leonova and Makarova have been very inconsistent this season.

CaptCrunch
02-22-2011, 01:11 PM
The US has an excellent chance to qualify 3 ladies for 2012. Face it, the ladies in Europe suck. None of them can jump with any consistency at all. On paper the top 3 should be Kim, Ando, and Asada but I like Czisny's chances after that. She's due to have a good worlds. Kostner doesn't have a lutz or a flip, true her PCS marks will be outrageously high for what she does, technically she's really not in the ballgame. If Czisny skates well she'll beat her just like she did at GPF. Technically none of the other ladies can keep up with Flatt. Korpi can't get thru a LP and Makarova and Leonova are no match for Flatt's consistency. I'm also expecting Murakami to be in the 6-8 range at this her first worlds. She won't be a medal contender.

Flatt's new and improved SP should score her around 61-62 pts (if clean) and that should be good enough to put her in the top 6 and the last group for the LP. Once there she has enough difficulty to keep herself there with her great head for competition.....even if the international judges don't like her.

Pecking order for ladies at worlds:
1) Kim
2) Ando
3) Asada
4) Czisny
5) Kostner (with jr level difficulty in her programs and even then not clean)
6) Flatt
7) Murakami
8) Korpi or maybe Phaneuf

I see 3 USA ladies for 2012. :)

jiggs
02-22-2011, 01:25 PM
Kostner doesn't have a lutz or a flip, true her PCS marks will be outrageously high for what she does, technically she's really not in the ballgame.

Carolina has already included a 3Flip and 2axel-3toe back into her program at Euros. I have also seen her do perfect 3lutzes in practice. Her knee is still not 100% ok but she can do those jumps again. She will definitely not keep the same layout as at the GPF.

Marroncream
02-22-2011, 01:40 PM
It's great for a country to qualify three skaters for Worlds, but really, not the end of the world if it doesn't happen. Life and skating will go on, I promise.
:respec: Agree.

SamuraiK
02-22-2011, 01:55 PM
For number's fun sake :

Average International total score from top contenders:

1 ANDO, Miki JPN 180.29
2 CZISNY, Alissa USA 170.43
3 MURAKAMI, Kanako JPN 167.68
4 KOSTNER, Carolina ITA 166.66
5 KORPI, Kiira FIN 162.30
6 ASADA, Mao JPN 159.24
7 FLATT, Rachael USA 157.95
8 MAKAROVA, Ksenia RUS 152.40
9 LEONOVA, Alena RUS 149.69

Median International total score from top contenders:

1 ANDO, Miki JPN 173.81
2 MURAKAMI, Kanako JPN 170.99
3 CZISNY, Alissa USA 170.59
4 KOSTNER, Carolina ITA 166.58
5 KORPI, Kiira FIN 164.02
6 FLATT, Rachael USA 161.95
7 MAKAROVA, Ksenia RUS 156.25
8 LEONOVA, Alena RUS 148.61
9 ASADA, Mao JPN 148.02

Seasons International Scores Standard Deviation:

1 KORPI, Kiira FIN 8.18
2 CZISNY, Alissa USA 8.68
3 KOSTNER, Carolina ITA 9.82
4 LEONOVA, Alena RUS 11.90
5 MURAKAMI, Kanako JPN 13.18
6 ANDO, Miki JPN 14.06
7 MAKAROVA, Ksenia RUS 14.90
8 FLATT, Rachael USA 22.03
9 ASADA, Mao JPN 32.92

LOL, who woul've thought Czisny, Korpi and Kostner will be the most consistent skaters of the year..
The numbers for Asada and Flatt are tricky thanks to her bombings at TEB and GPF respectively.
If they go relatively clean (cause we know for sure a full clean event in Ladiezz does not exist :D) and we add Yu-Na to the equation, I see Czisny with Top 5 potential and Rachael with top 8 potential. Safe enough for the 3 spots..

judgejudy27
02-22-2011, 02:09 PM
I'm downright amazed at the no. of people who seem to believe that Rachael who scored 180 pts at 4CCs, and is pretty reliable, and has the 4th highest score this season is going to finish behind jump-limited, headcase Kostner and splatarific Korpi whose best score is double digits behind Flatt. IT seems you are all counting on Korpi to skate lights out without taking into account her season. Murakami is the no. 3 JPN lady and I don't think she'll be given generous PCS at worlds either. The only person I'd bet money on to skate easily ahead is Kim.

I also am willing to give Alissa another chance. She looked exhausted at 4CCs - more so than others. The trip to Worlds will probably be a little less stressful than to Taipei and she'll have a little more downtime leading up to it.

First of all I was speaking of a hypothetical of all going clean (which we know wont happen) mostly in reference to how Nagasu would hypothetically do even in that scenario (irrelevant anyhow other than this hypothetical topic as she wont be at Worlds). Of course an all clean event is disaesterous for Flatt, but we will almost never see this so it is moot. Nagasu wouldnt really benefit from the likely mistakes most likely as she is just as likely to make them herself. Flatt with her consistently is more likely to benefit from it, and finish higher than my projected all clean rankings.

However I am not sure she will for sure end up above those people you mention either. Kostner didnt skate well at all at NHK and still beat Flatt. She usually beats Flatt as well. Flatt has improved since then but so has Kostner. Kostner can have less content and make more mistakes than Flatt and still beat her.

Murakami beat Flatt at Skate America and she didnt skate great there either. Flatt will probably skate better at Worlds but so will Murakami. Her country wont campaign for her much I agree, but she still can easily compete with Flatt both in PCS and jumping overall.

The scoring at Four Continents this year was highly inflated. What other event could Miki Ando score over 200 points without a triple-triple combination, LOL!

antmanb
02-22-2011, 02:44 PM
Since we're doing hypotheticals, in my hypothetical Kwan would come back and win. All of the factors required to make that happen would happen in my hypothetical :D

olympic
02-22-2011, 03:45 PM
First of all I was speaking of a hypothetical of all going clean (which we know wont happen) mostly in reference to how Nagasu would hypothetically do even in that scenario (irrelevant anyhow other than this hypothetical topic as she wont be at Worlds). Of course an all clean event is disaesterous for Flatt, but we will almost never see this so it is moot. Nagasu wouldnt really benefit from the likely mistakes most likely as she is just as likely to make them herself. Flatt with her consistently is more likely to benefit from it, and finish higher than my projected all clean rankings.

However I am not sure she will for sure end up above those people you mention either. Kostner didnt skate well at all at NHK and still beat Flatt. She usually beats Flatt as well. Flatt has improved since then but so has Kostner. Kostner can have less content and make more mistakes than Flatt and still beat her.

Murakami beat Flatt at Skate America and she didnt skate great there either. Flatt will probably skate better at Worlds but so will Murakami. Her country wont campaign for her much I agree, but she still can easily compete with Flatt both in PCS and jumping overall.

The scoring at Four Continents this year was highly inflated. What other event could Miki Ando score over 200 points without a triple-triple combination, LOL!

Re Flatt, the comps you mention also included pretty dismal performances by an injured Flatt w/ a real stinker of an SP.

You have to forget about Flatt's performance at the GPF. I think that was a one-off.

Even so, Flatt still beat Murakami and Kostner in the LP portion at SA. I would have to look back, but didn't she also beat Kostner in the LP at NHK?

Also, Flatt has taken care of what was weighing her down - changing the SP [which she seems to get standing o's nowadays]. She is scoring 10 pts. higher in the SP alone than what she was scoring in the GP series. It also looks like she's recovered from injury and she got 180 pts. at 4CCs w/o a 3-3 in any portion of the comp [she was practicing runthroughs w/ 3-3s at Nats]. Her Flip generally looks a lot better, too - higher, more secure.

Again Murakami is OK, but she has her own inconsistencies and weak spots. She's also a newcomer without much rep, and an injured Flatt was still very even with her in the Fall with all the above described problems.

I agree w/ the other poster that Kostner is more lethal to the top now. But, I think she still takes the crown even from Czisny as biggest headcase of the ladies event. I will find it remarkable if she withstands the pressure at Worlds while adding new and better jumping passes for the first time this season.

wonderlen
02-22-2011, 03:49 PM
:rolleyes:
Murakami beat Flatt at Skate America and she didnt skate great there either. Flatt will probably skate better at Worlds but so will Murakami. Her country wont campaign for her much I agree, but she still can easily compete with Flatt both in PCS and jumping overall.

The scoring at Four Continents this year was highly inflated. What other event could Miki Ando score over 200 points without a triple-triple combination, LOL!

I think both Kanako and Rachael are equal in terms of getting same score, and both will be attempting 7 triples. Even if one of their triple got underrotated, they are still going away with 6 clean tirples that alone is above 60+ in TES. I assume their PCS will be around 57-59 range, and Kanako has potential to score higher PCS, maybe 1 or 2 points.

I think the scoring at the Four Continents is fair. Maybe a little inflated, but its no where near the inflation we had seem at the OLYMPICS :rolleyes:
Under COP, we have to look the skater in terms of total TES score, as doing a triple-triple or seperate jumps will still get you the same base score.

barbk
02-22-2011, 04:20 PM
I suspect Kostner may do much better than expected. Sometimes headcases who have something else to focus on (like an injury) take elements one at a time, and that would be all kinds of good for Carolina. I'm really hoping to see her skate her LP with the full panoply of jumps; it is a gorgeous program.

I'm not picking Yu Na for the win in Tokyo -- very hard to come 100% back after a year away, as Kwan showed back in '99. And it is in Japan, which should give a boost to at least some of the Japanese skaters. I think Murakami could easily come in top 6, maybe even slide into bronze with most of the attention diverted to Mao and Miki, at least one of whom is likely to falter.

judgejudy27
02-22-2011, 05:21 PM
:rolleyes:

I think both Kanako and Rachael are equal in terms of getting same score, and both will be attempting 7 triples. Even if one of their triple got underrotated, they are still going away with 6 clean tirples that alone is above 60+ in TES. I assume their PCS will be around 57-59 range, and Kanako has potential to score higher PCS, maybe 1 or 2 points.

I think the scoring at the Four Continents is fair. Maybe a little inflated, but its no where near the inflation we had seem at the OLYMPICS :rolleyes:
Under COP, we have to look the skater in terms of total TES score, as doing a triple-triple or seperate jumps will still get you the same base score.

So you essentialy agree with exactly what I said, that Murakami is easily competitive with Flatt in both TES and PCS.

LOL scoring at Four Continents was MORE inflated than the Olympics easily. Mao Asada skated a worse LP than at the Olympics as far as scoring merit but scored several points higher. And Yu Na Kim skating her best would beat Miki Ando without even a triple-triple attempt by even more than 15 points in the LP. Not to mention when you consider the skaters are doing one less element now.

CaptCrunch
02-22-2011, 05:43 PM
If Kostner tries to add content to her LP I predict she'll be in big trouble. She can't even skate clean doing toe loops and salchows. If she tries to add the lutz and flip I bet she turns into a mess. Because the Europeans have no one else Kostner is always getting ridiculous overmarked. Worlds will be the same but without the big jumps I don't see her as a threat to the podium.

museksk8r
02-22-2011, 08:21 PM
Carolina has already included a 3Flip and 2axel-3toe back into her program at Euros. I have also seen her do perfect 3lutzes in practice. Her knee is still not 100% ok but she can do those jumps again. She will definitely not keep the same layout as at the GPF.

Per usual, it seems so many are down on Carolina, and it's always been this way with her. It drives me :wall:. I really hope she proves all her nay-sayers wrong at Worlds. She or Alissa are my dream winners! :swoon::encore: