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Frau Muller
02-21-2011, 11:26 PM
There's a very good chance that the 'worst scenario' will see Rachael and Alissa in 5th and 6th place. So 5 + 6 = 11. Eleven pts regains us the 3 spots, no?

If any of the Japanese ladies or Yu-Na falter -- and anything can happen -- then we could have even a lower number (less than 11).

Remember, Mirai isn't exactly Mlle Consistency.

smarts1
02-21-2011, 11:58 PM
^ Neither is Alissa. I'm not too certain of how Alissa will fair in Tokyo. It looks like she's peaked for the season.

Jammers
02-22-2011, 12:01 AM
I still don't have faith in Alissa to pull it all together. And Rachael well she could skate clean and still finish in 9th place and that won't get it done either.

attyfan
02-22-2011, 12:13 AM
^ Neither is Alissa. I'm not too certain of how Alissa will fair in Tokyo. It looks like she's peaked for the season.

Maybe, it will be good for Alissa that Jeremy won't be at Worlds. So far, the two seem to be "taking turns" ... where one medals, the other does not.

RD
02-22-2011, 01:20 AM
Surprisingly, I'm actually not TOO worried about Czisny- look how she did at 4CCs and still placed 5th. (in 2009 4CCs she was 9th!)

Doesn't mean I won't be a nervous wreck watching her, but it does mean that I don't think she will have a complete meltdown. I think she will fight for it even after making mistakes.

neptune
02-22-2011, 04:06 AM
I wish the USFSA would use other criteria besides Nats to select the team. Perhaps a combo of Nats and 4CCs:


I agree with this in theory, but how would you quantify it? Suppose Skater A beats Skater B by 15 points at Nationals, and then Skater B beats Skater A by 1 point at 4CCs. What to do then exactly?

Of course, to make things easier, USFS could always just factor in horoscopes and the number of fan sites each skater has. ;)

stjeaskategym
02-22-2011, 04:07 AM
I still do not understand why so many people think that Mirai is one big inconsistent figure skater..I think she has been doing pretty good despite her injuries and constantly dealing with UR calls. During the GP events, she could easily have gone the "Euro" way with a less ambitious" 3-4triples LP but no, she is one of the few skaters constantly going for a 6 triples program and rarely pop any jumps. I agree this years programs were not as good as many had expected but is it not partially up to the choreographer to work with a skaters strenghts and musicality?
Mirai seems like a rather sensitive young girl dealing with confidence issues. I mean, not everyone can handle pressure and success like Michelle Kwan..It seems like some of her own words are not really coming from the heart, more like things she has read about herself etc..I hope Frank will be patient and I am sure another year will do good.
I will certainly not forget her face after finishing her LP in Taipei, that was worth gold for me :swoon:

I agree. Since Mirai's surprising 4th place Olympic finish, some people expect her to have Kwan-like consistency. The IJS is too complex and results in too many inconsistent performances to expect another Kwan-like dominance in US skating. While Mirai's Nationals performance obviously wasn't her best, let's keep things in perspective here- 3rd in the country is still very solid. Even if she trained poorly, lost focus, and made stupid mistakes, she's only human and will learn from this. If skaters fulfilled their potential (or came close to doing so) each time they competed, there would be no need to compete!

I wish we could send Mirai to Worlds, as she has better scoring potential than Flatt, but Flatt pretty much earned the spot by doing somewhat better on the GP, beating her at Nationals, and staying close enough to her at 4cc (while beating the US Champion). Of course, it would be nice if USFS actually did consider the International season in selecting their teams, but that's a whole other story.


She just needs confidence and Frank can't really do anything to help that. It's all up to Mirai to become a better competitor.

I agree, and I hope she does not read this board. It must be hard to gain confidence when people dissect your mental state after each performance. And if she does read here, I hope she realizes it's just normal message board behavior to over-analyze everything the skaters do. :lol:


^ Neither is Alissa. I'm not too certain of how Alissa will fair in Tokyo. It looks like she's peaked for the season.

It will be hard for Alissa to match her great performance from Nationals, but certainly not impossible. She'll have more time to prepare for Worlds than she did for 4cc. There wasn't much time to "come down" from the Nationals high.

Seerek
02-22-2011, 04:31 AM
The problem is, the kind of errors that Alissa tends to make in a program result in full downgrades (such as at 4 continents) rather than less penalized error types like under-rotated or fully rotated but with negative GOE.

skateboy
02-22-2011, 04:44 AM
I'm sorry Mirai didn't make the world team, but it's just the "first worlds year" in this Olympic quadrennial. Some Olympic champions and medalists haven't even skated at worlds during the "first" year.

neptune
02-22-2011, 04:52 AM
And Rachael well she could skate clean and still finish in 9th place and that won't get it done either.

She needs to land 7 triples. Why has she stopped doing that?

Domshabfan
02-22-2011, 05:14 AM
Alissa fell after the SP and still ended up scoring almost the same score as Makarova and Meier at Europeans. Makarova even landed a 3t+3t as well. The scoring at europeans was very generous, however at 4cc scoring even more generous especially with the GOE.

I do think Alissa would have been far behind after the short program if they all skated in one competition and Meier, Korpi and Makarova would have finished higher than alissa and Rachel after the sp. Final result would have been very interesting.

at the world i think, the placement will be

1-3) Miki, Mao, Yuna
4-7) Korpi, Kostner, Murakami, Alissa
8-11) Leonova, Flatt, Phaneuf, Makarova.

So my feeling is that Japan might be the only team to have 3 spots for next year, with US having a very remote chance to get three spot. however, not that high as some of you are predicting here.

jjane45
02-22-2011, 05:22 AM
:watch: :argue:

Oh boy, this thread started so light-hearted... :lol:

Japanfan
02-22-2011, 07:09 AM
It's great for a country to qualify three skaters for Worlds, but really, not the end of the world if it doesn't happen. Life and skating will go on, I promise.

judgejudy27
02-22-2011, 07:31 AM
What is your basis for that. Asada and Ando both easily beat her at 4CCs and Asada didnt even skate anywhere near her very best still. Yu Na Kim is going to be at Worlds and obviously is favored to win. Kostner and Korpi on a good day could beat Nagasu right now even if the skates well, and Czisny also.

The U.S has about as equally good a shot at 3 spots with any combination of Nagasu, Flatt, and Czisny, and equally as mild a chance at a medal with any combination as well.

judgejudy27
02-22-2011, 07:35 AM
I don't think we can say it's a given Mirai would win bronze at worlds even if she skated perfectly. In fact, if they were all to go clean, I would expect Yuna, Mao, and Miki to all finish ahead of her and further, a totally clean Carolina or Alissa could potentially beat her too. I love Mirai, but this thread is very presumptive.

If everyone skated cleanly at Worlds the final results would be something like:

1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Ando
4. Kostner or Czisny
6. Korpi or Nagasu

Nagasu wouldnt even be close to winning a medal in that scenario. And she is more inconsistent than the first 3 and just as inconsistent as Kostner, Czisny, and Korpi really.