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Fallcolor
02-24-2011, 07:01 PM
If everyone skated cleanly Kim would easily win (anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly delusional, regardless of Worlds being in Japan), and Asada would be 2nd ahead of Ando.
I'm thinking now that Kim will probably need to be close to 100% in order to win.

And I dont know on what planet Asada has the PCS edge over Kim, she hasnt gotten higher PCS than Kim in years, and even Ando is beating her on PCS in many recent competitions.
Which is why Ando finishing ahead of Asada is so very likely at worlds...

Looking at Asada's and Ando's PCS and GOEs this season and last, it is clear who JSF was and is banking on these two seasons.
A wise strategy- considering the scenario that Asada will receive downgrades on several of her jumps and this being Kim's season debut, it is very likely that neither will skate clean. Basically, Ando's scores indicate that she is the only skater capable of matching Kim's tech base value and/or better Asada's PCS, both of which will probably guarantee her of a win. In '07 worlds Ando won, but there was still quite a gap in her PCS with Asada and Kim. Fast forward 2 years the gap has closed. At '09 GPF LP, the judges virtually tied Ando/Kim's PCS, something they can very well do again.

Amy03
02-24-2011, 07:14 PM
Since when does Mao have a 3-3 this season? :confused: I haven't seen it. The 3a is sort of back and she's added a 3s into her arsenal and started doing the 3lz again, but she still flutzes it. And I think Mao's weakness compared to Miki and Yuna is that she won't get the same GOE on the jumps as they do. She's reworking her technique this season and it seems to have made her jumps temporarily weaker. Her 2a-3t is not reliable, she had issues getting that combo ratified in her jumping prime, while Yuna and Miki OTOH can do that combination very well.

And people are making it seem like the results at nationals and 4CC were closer than they were, Miki didn't "barely" beat Mao, sure she didn't win by a landslide, but she had a nice margin of victory over Mao at both competitions.

Further, I don't know if we can expect Mao to skate better at Worlds than she did at nats and 4CC because this is Mao we are talking about and she really didn't make big mistakes at either competition. Mao was clean enough at both events that if it was really obvious she was better than Miki, she would have won anyways, just like Yuna often won over a well skating Mao or Miki or Rachael, etc even with mistakes. Clearly, the judges don't see Mao as being far superior to Miki, so I expect the results between the two will be close at Worlds if they both skate well. Obviously it can go either way, but I don't think Mao is heavy edge to Miki this season considering she's going through a regrouping year and Miki's huge jumps are back and is on a bit of a roll recently.

let me start with mao has been practicing a 3lo-3lo as well as 3f-3lo and she said that she would like to include at worlds.. and because it's mao we are talking about I really think she is going to deliever, since she has also said that she would like to show her best at worlds, and well if you look at maos past records it looks pretty promising:

2005 junior worlds: gold
2006 junior worlds: silver

2007 senior worlds: silver
2008 senior worlds: gold
2009 senior worlds: 4th
2010 senior worlds: gold

(she has gotten two gold and one silver out of the four seinor world championships she has been in)

and just looking at this season she improved so much from each competition she entered even with her reworking her jumps and not beeing ready, the progress she has made is very visible.. and no matter what it's going to be exciting to watch worlds and see how things will go...

NMURA
02-24-2011, 07:41 PM
I say, Kim needs 100% to even have the chance to win (depending on Asada's mistakes). Based on the new rules, Kim's TES of past performances would be ...

Kim 2009 worlds 94.6
Kim 2009 TEB 99.2
Kim Olympics 107.7

Ando 2011 4CC 108.7
Asada 2011 4CC 103.4

Yes, 4CC (esp. Ando's) scores were as generous as Vancouver. It could happen at worlds too. I think Asada mostly regained the confidence of the judges. She will receive the higher PCS at worlds.

Fallcolor
02-24-2011, 07:42 PM
Mao will not be doing the 3f+3lo at worlds.

RD
02-24-2011, 07:44 PM
Is Asada PLANNING on doing a 3-3 in the LP, though? she's made it clear that she intends on doing a 3A in both programs.

Fallcolor
02-24-2011, 07:47 PM
^I seriously doubt it...she hasn't been including it in her programs all this season. The last time (IIRC) that she ever mentioned it was over the summer, but that was also when she talked about doing two 3x's in the free...

miki88
02-24-2011, 08:32 PM
^I seriously doubt it...she hasn't been including it in her programs all this season. The last time (IIRC) that she ever mentioned it was over the summer, but that was also when she talked about doing two 3x's in the free...

She mentioned it again in interviews recently. There was also a clip where she tried a few. She tried one in the 6-minute warmup before the LP at 4CC. According to articles, Mao wants to include it at Worlds, but Sato seems to feel she may not be ready yet.

RD
02-24-2011, 08:35 PM
^ Do you know which articles?

wonderlen
02-24-2011, 08:49 PM
Is Asada PLANNING on doing a 3-3 in the LP, though? she's made it clear that she intends on doing a 3A in both programs.

I don't think she will thou or capable this year based on her 3F reworking. Based on the jumps layout at 4CC, she already had 7 triples and if she add the 3Lo to back end of her 3F, she will hit the 8 triples program. Her Flip just starting to get a little more consistent now, but it still kindda iffy and thats why it hasn't been getting decent +GOE. All she can hope is go through both SP+LP in Tokyo without any major mistake like fall or step outs.

kittyjake5
02-24-2011, 08:53 PM
I thought this thread was about Mirai. But it's turning out into the usual debate....:scream:

I know, pretty soon there will be a debate on Michelle vs. Sasha or Sasha vs. Michelle. lol

pinky166
02-24-2011, 10:09 PM
let me start with mao has been practicing a 3lo-3lo as well as 3f-3lo and she said that she would like to include at worlds.. and because it's mao we are talking about I really think she is going to deliever, since she has also said that she would like to show her best at worlds, and well if you look at maos past records it looks pretty promising:

2005 junior worlds: gold
2006 junior worlds: silver

2007 senior worlds: silver
2008 senior worlds: gold
2009 senior worlds: 4th
2010 senior worlds: gold

(she has gotten two gold and one silver out of the four seinor world championships she has been in)

and just looking at this season she improved so much from each competition she entered even with her reworking her jumps and not beeing ready, the progress she has made is very visible.. and no matter what it's going to be exciting to watch worlds and see how things will go...

Everyone practices 3-3s, but Mao hasn't done one in 2 years so I doubt she will at Worlds. And I'm not saying Yuna and Miki beating her at Worlds is a done deal, I'm just saying the odds that they will are looking pretty high. If Miki bombs the SP, that will hurt her dearly, but otherwise, I think she's a frontrunner for gold and maybe even more of one than Mao this season. I don't know what will happen, but I wouldn't count Mao or Miki out, especially Miki and especially considering the whole Yuna situation.

neptune
02-25-2011, 02:06 AM
I know, pretty soon there will be a debate on Michelle vs. Sasha or Sasha vs. Michelle. lol

But it won't end there. After that, we'll discuss whether figures should have ever been eliminated, then how much money Peggy Fleming's winery is pulling in, and finally the 30-day weather forecast for Tokyo, Japan. Upon which will arise sharp debate about the theory of global warming. :lol:

bardtoob
02-25-2011, 04:52 AM
I know, pretty soon there will be a debate on Michelle vs. Sasha or Sasha vs. Michelle. lol

More like Michelle vs Irina . . . guess who is the Michelle and who is the Irina :hat1:

Marco
02-25-2011, 05:38 AM
I don't think she will thou or capable this year based on her 3F reworking. Based on the jumps layout at 4CC, she already had 7 triples and if she add the 3Lo to back end of her 3F, she will hit the 8 triples program. Her Flip just starting to get a little more consistent now, but it still kindda iffy and thats why it hasn't been getting decent +GOE. All she can hope is go through both SP+LP in Tokyo without any major mistake like fall or step outs.


No lady has been legitimately attempting 8 triples on the senior international scene and at least close to rotating the jumps since Yoshie Onda did many years ago.

Would love to see Mao go for it and be the first to actually be properly credited for 8 triples. It's much harder now already because of the limit on jumping pass...

Triple Butz
02-25-2011, 09:07 AM
No lady has been legitimately attempting 8 triples on the senior international scene and at least close to rotating the jumps since Yoshie Onda did many years ago.

Would love to see Mao go for it and be the first to actually be properly credited for 8 triples. It's much harder now already because of the limit on jumping pass...

The only other lady I can think of that made a shot at 8 was Kimmie Meissner, though her 3a and 3t were a bit questionable. Didn't she almost land 8 at a JPG event, only having a 2-foot on the 3a?