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haribobo
12-29-2010, 12:48 AM
Just curious to see how everyones predictions have changed now that Nationals are complete (sans Germany)....

Multiple choice allowed. Who will medal?

Err. 2011 Euros. Sorry.

pinky166
12-29-2010, 12:58 AM
Gold I think will be between Joubert and Verner, and Amodio will probably be on the podium in 2nd or 3rd. Contesti and Preaubert could spoil and sneak up there. Right now injuries seem to have taken a toll on Fernandez, Brezina, Gatchinski, and Voronov - all of who would be medal contenders if healthy.

haribobo
12-29-2010, 01:03 AM
Gachinski IMO is still a medal contendor if his injury isn't too severe. He's quite amazing.

Roxanne
12-29-2010, 05:14 AM
I think it's between Verner and Joubert for gold and Amodio, Preaubert and Contesti for bronze. Though if Fernandez, Gachinski and Brezina are doing better by Euros they could be medal contenders too. And I guess we can't rule out out Van der Perren. I just hope he doesn't medal.

caseyedwards
12-29-2010, 07:48 AM
Joubert, Amodio and Verner are all solid bets. Hardly anyone is voting for anyone else. Verner is not sick like last season so it is doubtful that he'll come in any where near 10th again! If Brezina is at full power he could beat them all! But he lost lots of time training so maybe 2012. Contesti, van der Perren, Preaubert all have tons of experience.

I wanted to see that last time Russia sent men who had never been there before and it was just in 2008 and Voronov almost medaled. Gachinksi nearly pulled out of Russian nationals and Menshov just did his first GP event in little over a month ago! He did three quads at Russian nationals-bizarrely the only man to do any - so if he could bring that to Euros that could be something.

briancoogaert
12-29-2010, 10:00 AM
For 2010, I know ;)
For 2011, I think Verner, Amodio and Joubert can do it.

Extranjera
12-29-2010, 11:58 AM
I see most of us have similar types ;) I also think Brian, Tomas & Florent will medal at Euros, I'm curious who will win the gold. I hope to see a big come back of JouBi ;)

kia_4EverOnIce
12-29-2010, 01:51 PM
Tomas, Brian, Florent (I hope in this order!)

pinky166
12-30-2010, 08:47 PM
I really hope Tomas and Brian are both on the podium! I would love for Tomas to win as a nice comeback victory after her disappointing season last year :).

blue_idealist
12-31-2010, 11:49 PM
I voted for Verner, Joubert, and Van der Perren. I think Verner will surely win. Earlier in the season, I would have said Amodio, but he didn't do so great at the GP Final. He did beat Joubert in the FS though at French nationals.. so who knows.. I'd like Preaubert or the Swedes to medal, but I don't think they will. Brezina and Fernandez have been struggling with injury. I'm not that impressed with the Russian guys. Contesti is really a wild card, 'cause he's inconsistent.. he could very well end up on the podium. I'm not that confident in predicting a bronze for Van der Perren, or even the silver for Joubert.

pinky166
01-01-2011, 03:35 AM
I voted for Verner, Joubert, and Van der Perren. I think Verner will surely win. Earlier in the season, I would have said Amodio, but he didn't do so great at the GP Final. He did beat Joubert in the FS though at French nationals.. so who knows.. I'd like Preaubert or the Swedes to medal, but I don't think they will. Brezina and Fernandez have been struggling with injury. I'm not that impressed with the Russian guys. Contesti is really a wild card, 'cause he's inconsistent.. he could very well end up on the podium. I'm not that confident in predicting a bronze for Van der Perren, or even the silver for Joubert.

I'm not so sure Verner will win....I HOPE he does and think he will be on the podium, I'm just not sure what color medal he will get. Probably gold or silver, but maybe bronze.

I feel like a clean Joubert would probably get huge PCS and be able to win, especially because he does a quad in the SP. But Joubert is prone to mistakes, and even when he is clean, he often doesn't max out his jumping passes, something which could potentially make the difference between gold and bronze. So we'll see.

Amodio could win but he'd probably need Verner and Joubert to make mistakes, on top of him skating really well, for that to happen. But it is Joubert and Verner we are talking about, so it isn't out of the question. Most likely I think he will be 2nd or 3rd though.

Contesti is usually consistent in the LP, but skaters like Verner, Joubert, and even Amodio generally have a significant PCS cushion over him. It seems like when Contesti lands all his jumps cleanly he scores around 140-145, maybe 150 if he's really "on", which Verner and Joubert can manage with solid but flawed skates (like Verner at the GPF - tripled his quad, only 2 combos, no 3 jump combo, and a turn out of one jump, but still scored 148, and that was with his PCS being a bit lower than usual). Contesti needs to be clean in the SP though to have a realistic chance, and in his two GPs he had major issues in the SP, although he was clean in the SP at Italian nationals so maybe he's turned over a new leaf.

Van Der Perren is in the same kind of situation as Contesti, his PCS are usually lower than Contesti's though but his odds increase if he reels off one of his sick 3a-3t-3t or 4t-3t-3t combos. We'll see if that happens though.

Brezina and Fernandez could spoil, and if healthy they'd probably be favorites to podium, but their injuries seem to have taken a toll on them. Neither one put up a great score at nationals so the outlook isn't great for now, although there is still time for that to change. Gatchinski I'd probably also group with these two for now due to his concussion.

I can't think of any other men who have a realistic shot at medaling, except Preaubert, who may suffer from the 3rd skater syndrome. I'd say his odds of medaling are probably similar to Contesti's, maybe a little better, but not as good as Amodio's.

caseyedwards
01-01-2011, 04:22 PM
It's not clear how Joubert and Verner will skate if they land quads in their free skate. For French nationals Joubert did a triple toe to be clean and Verner fell. Amodio is the only one who did the free skate they plan to do at europeans at their nationals of the major big three contenders for the gold.

pinky166
01-01-2011, 06:43 PM
It's not clear how Joubert and Verner will skate in they land quads in their free skate. For French nationals Joubert did a triple toe to be clean and Verner fell. Amodio is the only one who did the free skate they plan to do at europeans at their nationals of the major big three contenders for the gold.

It might depend on the results of the SP. Joubert seems to make more mistakes when he attempts the quad, and Verner it doesn't seem to take much of a toll on the rest of his FS anymore, but he also has yet to land the quad cleanly in his FS. Amodio probably won't attempt a quad at all unless he's way back after the SP and really needs it to have a shot to medal. Verner scored 156+ for his almost clean, quad-free performance at COR, so if he was totally clean but didn't do the quad, he could probably score around 160. That's a big number, but if he went for the quad and landed it, well then his score could probably be even higher, or he could afford a few minor mistakes and still get a good score. It does seem like Verner usually rotates his quads, so even if he does fall, as long as it was rotated, he wouldn't be out of it.

Joubert skated well at French nats, but not so well at his GPs, while Verner and Amodio skated pretty well at all their competitions thus far, but can still do even better. I think it will be a very exciting competition!

caseyedwards
01-01-2011, 10:59 PM
It might depend on the results of the SP. Joubert seems to make more mistakes when he attempts the quad, and Verner it doesn't seem to take much of a toll on the rest of his FS anymore, but he also has yet to land the quad cleanly in his FS. Amodio probably won't attempt a quad at all unless he's way back after the SP and really needs it to have a shot to medal. Verner scored 156+ for his almost clean, quad-free performance at COR, so if he was totally clean but didn't do the quad, he could probably score around 160. That's a big number, but if he went for the quad and landed it, well then his score could probably be even higher, or he could afford a few minor mistakes and still get a good score. It does seem like Verner usually rotates his quads, so even if he does fall, as long as it was rotated, he wouldn't be out of it.

Joubert skated well at French nats, but not so well at his GPs, while Verner and Amodio skated pretty well at all their competitions thus far, but can still do even better. I think it will be a very exciting competition!

I just noticed my typo and if Joubert and Verner did do quads how would that affect the rest of their performance in the FS. It will all probably depend on the SP as Joubert did do one in the SP at French nationals and then just didn't do one in the free as Amodio also made mistakes in his SP. Then if Joubert and Amodio are 1st and 2nd and Verner is 3rd what does he do? It does depend on the SP which I did not really think of- I was just thinking of Free skates! It should be exciting if all do well in the SP. Then the LP should be drama packed.

pinky166
01-02-2011, 12:34 AM
I just noticed my typo and if Joubert and Verner did do quads how would that affect the rest of their performance in the FS. It will all probably depend on the SP as Joubert did do one in the SP at French nationals and then just didn't do one in the free as Amodio also made mistakes in his SP. Then if Joubert and Amodio are 1st and 2nd and Verner is 3rd what does he do? It does depend on the SP which I did not really think of- I was just thinking of Free skates! It should be exciting if all do well in the SP. Then the LP should be drama packed.

If all 3 men are clean in the SP, Joubert would likely be 1st because of the quad, Verner 2nd and Amodio 3rd because they are attempting the same jumps but Verner's PCS are generally higher. And then in the FS, order probably matters. If Joubert really makes a lot of mistakes, Verner could go for a clean performance and open with 3lz-3t, but if he is behind the leader after the SP by a significant margin and those around him are skating well in the FS, he will probably attempt the quad in hopes to gain a higher score. And then if Verner is in 1st after the SP by a good margin, he might just go for the quad anyway knowing that he can afford to make a mistake. The same can be said for the others, although I tend to think Joubert will attempt a quad in the SP and FS regardless because he always does.