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burntBREAD
12-17-2010, 03:28 AM
At this point in term of TES potentail assuming they all land clean with no downgrade:

1) Suzuki (3F+2T, 2A+3T, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3Lo+2T, 3F, 3S+2T+2Lo) 43.6~
2) Kanako (3T+3T, 3F+2T, 3Lz, 2A, 3F, 3Lo, 3S+2T+2Lo) 41.5~
3) Ando (3Lz+2Lo, 3Lo, 2A+3T, 3S, 3Lz, 3T, 2A+2Lo+2Lo) 40.5~

Suzuki has potential to score the highest in base value, but she doesn't usually get high +GOE and problem with edge call that will hurt her.


Akiko's jump layout is wrong, unless she recently changed it...
It should go 3Lz, 2A-3T, 3Lo, (halfway) 3Lz or F-2T-2Lo, 3F, 3Lo~2A (or 2T), 3S. That's an even higher base layout.

Marco
12-17-2010, 07:09 AM
The layout is also wrong because wonderlen had Suzuki got 4 combos.

I think the skate order at Nationals may play a huge part. If Suzuki skates before Asada and delivers, the relevant personnel can perhaps at most plant a bomb and downgrade 1 or 2 close triples / give some "e"s but give her no lower than low 7s in PCS. With that, it is still possible that Asada pops or falls on enough jumps that it becomes mathematically impossible or embarrassing for her to surprass Suzuki.

If Suzuki skates after Asada, the judges can then downgrade as many of Suzuki's jumps as they want to allow Asada to surpass her.

(this is ofcourse assuming Asada skates a mediocre performance)

MikiAndoFan#1
12-17-2010, 08:35 AM
It's terrible that 4 can't go.

This. :respec:

justAfsfan
12-17-2010, 01:35 PM
I disagree.

1) The way things are going this year, Mao is well below Suzuki on the list of potential medalists. I have also seen many times when the new thing does well all season on the GP but gets an adjustment to her PCS come Worlds, so I expect Suzuki to be Japanese #2 at least at Worlds if Murakami goes.

2) Mao has the best chance to finish out of the top 10 with the way the top Japanese ladies have been skating all season.

3) Using this logic, leave Ando, Suzuki and Mao at home since they don't need the experience because they all competed in Vancouver and at previous Worlds. They can do well in Sochi with or without this Worlds under their belt.

4) I know this plays a part but it should be the very last factor.

Totally agree, I love Mao but if she still skate like in gran prix at national I don't think she deserve the place on world team.

NMURA
12-17-2010, 05:43 PM
Totally agree, I love Mao but if she still skate like in gran prix at national I don't think she deserve the place on world team.

If Asada "practices" for self-satisfaction at nationals again, we must consider she doesn't want the worlds spot anyway. She can't skip nationals only because her sponsors never allow that. As long as she's motivated enough, she won't miss the podium. I believe the JSF doesn't send a skater lacking motivations to worlds. That is a big insult to other ladies.

Extranjera
12-17-2010, 06:17 PM
That is a big insult to other ladies.

That WOULD be a big insult, let's wait untill the end of the nationals. We haven't seen Mao's programs & scores yet so we shouldn't judge them.

galaxy
12-18-2010, 02:54 PM
If Asada "practices" for self-satisfaction at nationals again, we must consider she doesn't want the worlds spot anyway. She can't skip nationals only because her sponsors never allow that. As long as she's motivated enough, she won't miss the podium. I believe the JSF doesn't send a skater lacking motivations to worlds. That is a big insult to other ladies.


Why do you persistently keep saying that Mao skates just for self-satisfaction, or just for money or she is skating without motivations? and persistently saying that she is doing disgraces and insults to fs and other skaters?
In another thread you said that the (JSF) officials know well Asada has no physical problems. It is quite well known that she is a skater who doesn't talk about her physical problems and issues, so nobody knows what's actually going on in her body. How do you know that the JSF officials know Asada has no physical problems?:confused:

ponta1
12-18-2010, 05:39 PM
Why do you persistently keep saying that Mao skates just for self-satisfaction, or just for money or she is skating without motivations? and persistently saying that she is doing disgraces and insults to fs and other skaters?
In another thread you said that the (JSF) officials know well Asada has no physical problems. It is quite well known that she is a skater who doesn't talk about her physical problems and issues, so nobody knows what's actually going on in her body. How do you know that the JSF officials know Asada has no physical problems?:confused:

I agree with everything you say here, Galaxy. It seems Nmura just keeps harping away about how Mao skates only for "self-satisfaction", has no motivation, has a "neglecting attitude", etc etc etc.

I think Mao works very hard, and if the results aren't what she wants, it isn't because of motivation, or her "neglecting attitude". It's because everything has not come together yet.

SkateSkates
12-18-2010, 05:57 PM
NMURA, I don't know if you are a figure skater or not, but I am, and I can tell you from past experience that changing technique is a long and difficult process, and can take a couple of seasons to correct. You may be able to do it in practice, but once you get to the competition, you start doubting yourself and old habits start to creep back. Your timing can get thrown off, causing you to pop jumps - they don't happen on purpose. If you watch most skater's popped jumps, they are very out of position, and most likely not even high enough to complete the jump anyway. They could injure themselves if they just threw themselves into the air without the proper technique and alignment.

Once this happens, it stays in the back of your mind for the next few competitions, but you slowly get better. Finally, there will be a good performance, and your confidence will be back to where it was (or almost back).

I would have to disagree with you and say that Asada has the MOST motivation. It takes SO much motivation to change your technique, and changing it on one jumps will also affect your other jumps. She is very brave to put it all out there, which is something I was not able to do when fixing my technique.

BigB08822
12-18-2010, 09:00 PM
If Asada "practices" for self-satisfaction at nationals again, we must consider she doesn't want the worlds spot anyway. She can't skip nationals only because her sponsors never allow that. As long as she's motivated enough, she won't miss the podium. I believe the JSF doesn't send a skater lacking motivations to worlds. That is a big insult to other ladies.

I hate to inform you but motivation is just ONE of Mao's issues. That is even questionable because I think she is still motivated, otherwise she wouldn't continue to rework her jump technique after 2 world titles and an Olympic silver medal. You seem to think if she is motivated that she will automatically begin skating well. Maybe she is motivated and still isn't skating well. Perhaps she needs time and more training, along with motivation. There isn't one simple answer for Mao.

Jeschke
12-24-2010, 12:15 PM
oh, mens and pairs short program is over.

takahashi/tran only pair.

men: kozuka dominant in front of hanyu and oda. takahashi just ame in fourth. that could be a tough battle for the world tickets.
worlds in tokyo without takahashi, unbelievable :D

tkaug
12-26-2010, 01:53 PM
Japanese National Championship is over.
Here's the link for the results.

http://www.skatingjapan.jp/

Top 3 men/ladies will make the team for the worlds.

aaron
12-26-2010, 02:14 PM
Kanako was amazing :)
Great comeback performance for Mao :respec:
Miki :swoon::swoon: Perfect SP/FS. Just stunning.

Yet, my heart is breaking for Akiko :(

I really want to see 4 of them at Tokyo World...

midori
12-26-2010, 03:04 PM
Posted in another thread:



Universiade: Nobu Oda, Daisuke Murakami, Shoko Ishikawa, Shion Kokubun, Emi Hirai/Taiyo Mizutani

Asian Games: Takahito Mura, Tatsuki Machida, Kanako Murakami, Haruka Imai, Reed/Reed

4cc: Takahiko Kozuka, Daisuke Takahashi, Yuzuru Hanyu, Miki Ando, Mao Asada, Akiko Suzuki, Takahashi/Tran, Reed/Reed

Junior Worlds: Kento Nakamura, Keiji Tanaka, Ryuichi Kihara, Risa Shoji, Yuki Nishino, Miyabi Ohba, Takahashi/Tran, Komatsubara/Mizutani


Worlds:
Takahashi/Tran
Reed/Reed
Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Daisuke Takahashi
Miki Ando, Mao Asada, Kanako Murakami

No surprise.

ainouta
12-26-2010, 05:28 PM
Wowwwwww T/T are going to be SUPER busy late-season!