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NMURA
12-16-2010, 09:20 AM
In a recent article, (http://sankei.jp.msn.com/sports/other/101207/oth1012071945011-n1.htm) JSF president has clearly stated that Mao needs to make the podium in order to get a ticket to Worlds. JSF was asked if they will consider her past accomplishments but they said that this season's results was most important. Mao has also said Nationals will be her "last chance".

Her message to Asada is obvious - don't take the competition (competitors) lightly. Some of the JSF officials must be irritated by Asada's low energy and neglecting attitudes toward competitions.

NMURA
12-16-2010, 09:29 AM
I love Mao but I hope they don't hold her up so she makes the team. The other 3 girls deserve to go.

Deserving or undeserving are not the main criteria for the world team.

(1) Who has the best chance to win (medal) at worlds.
(2) Who has the better chance to secure three spots.
(3) Who has the better chance to be the contender at Sochi.
(4) Who can contribute more for the sponsors and viewership rates.

Obviously, Suzuki has the lowest priority on the list.

miki88
12-16-2010, 01:23 PM
didn't she change her layout one year ago? I think she tried to do only one 3A in FS at nationals, unfortunately I'm not sure because I can't find her program from this competition on youtube

Oh you're right. I meant that Mao would probably never do a layout omitting all of the hard jumps a la Kostner, even though it might be a smart strategy to minimize risks for now. It worked for Carolina. :D

ponta1
12-16-2010, 04:29 PM
Her message to Asada is obvious - don't take the competition (competitors) lightly. Some of the JSF officials must be irritated by Asada's low energy and neglecting attitudes toward competitions.

What exactly do you mean by "neglecting attitudes toward competitions"?

NMURA
12-16-2010, 04:52 PM
What exactly do you mean by "neglecting attitudes toward competitions"?

Don't you have that impression? To her, jumping practices are more important than placements and scores. She was attempting jumps barely successful even in practices, like the 3A in the latter half of FS. She doesn't have any injury or physical problems. Everything comes from her lack of competitive motivations. Any healthy reigning world champion won't place the 8th at GPS with justifiable reasons. One of her sponsors has warned ending of the endorsement.

AxelAnnie
12-16-2010, 05:06 PM
I think the Japanese Federation will send whomever they want to Worlds, and will make sure that the results at Nationals support their decision.

Tricky business with Mao. If selection to the World Team were the result of your body of work....no problem. Send her.

However, her skating has been sub par...really....for two years. Yu-Na gifted that world title to Mao. And, other than Japanese Nats, IIRC, Mao skated with spotty results (bronze, 4th, 5th) until Nationals. I don't know how you measure her, and how you know that she has turned a corner. Especially in Japan where the field is so very deep, and you have so many women who have done so well, and could use the experience.

Having said all that, absent an injured Mao, I am sure we will see her at Worlds. I can't imagine that the Japanese Federation would leave her off the team.

BigB08822
12-16-2010, 05:23 PM
Deserving or undeserving are not the main criteria for the world team.

(1) Who has the best chance to win (medal) at worlds.
(2) Who has the better chance to secure three spots.
(3) Who has the better chance to be the contender at Sochi.
(4) Who can contribute more for the sponsors and viewership rates.

Obviously, Suzuki has the lowest priority on the list.

I disagree.

1) The way things are going this year, Mao is well below Suzuki on the list of potential medalists. I have also seen many times when the new thing does well all season on the GP but gets an adjustment to her PCS come Worlds, so I expect Suzuki to be Japanese #2 at least at Worlds if Murakami goes.

2) Mao has the best chance to finish out of the top 10 with the way the top Japanese ladies have been skating all season.

3) Using this logic, leave Ando, Suzuki and Mao at home since they don't need the experience because they all competed in Vancouver and at previous Worlds. They can do well in Sochi with or without this Worlds under their belt.

4) I know this plays a part but it should be the very last factor.

ponta1
12-16-2010, 05:39 PM
Don't you have that impression? To her, jumping practices are more important than placements and scores. She was attempting jumps barely successful even in practices, like the 3A in the latter half of FS. She doesn't have any injury or physical problems. Everything comes from her lack of competitive motivations. Any healthy reigning world champion won't place the 8th at GPS with justifiable reasons. One of her sponsors has warned ending of the endorsement.

Uh, no

NMURA
12-16-2010, 05:44 PM
1) The way things are going this year, Mao is well below Suzuki on the list of potential medalists. I have also seen many times when the new thing does well all season on the GP but gets an adjustment to her PCS come Worlds, so I expect Suzuki to be Japanese #2 at least at Worlds if Murakami goes.

2) Mao has the best chance to finish out of the top 10 with the way the top Japanese ladies have been skating all season.

Suzuki is already the #4 in national orders. She has zero chance to win (medal) at worlds. Because she can never make the final flight of FS. The judges have no reason to give special favors to #3 skater even at home. Asada's chance is surely "positive", as long as she's prepared and motivated enough. Ando (more consistent) and Murakami (higher scoring potentials) can secure three spots without much problems. Therefore, this consideration is not so important when selecting the third skater.


3) Using this logic, leave Ando, Suzuki and Mao at home since they don't need the experience because they all competed in Vancouver and at previous Worlds. They can do well in Sochi with or without this Worlds under their belt.

Obviously, Suzuki has the lowest chance in this respect. Ando and Asada have the priority.

miki88
12-16-2010, 06:03 PM
I think the Japanese Federation will send whomever they want to Worlds, and will make sure that the results at Nationals support their decision.

Tricky business with Mao. If selection to the World Team were the result of your body of work....no problem. Send her.

However, her skating has been sub par...really....for two years. Yu-Na gifted that world title to Mao. And, other than Japanese Nats, IIRC, Mao skated with spotty results (bronze, 4th, 5th) until Nationals. I don't know how you measure her, and how you know that she has turned a corner. Especially in Japan where the field is so very deep, and you have so many women who have done so well, and could use the experience.

Having said all that, absent an injured Mao, I am sure we will see her at Worlds. I can't imagine that the Japanese Federation would leave her off the team.

Mao has been inconsistent for the past two years, but her high points has still been much more than what Akiko and Miki probably will ever achieve in their career. I'm excluding Kanako because she's young and just starting. Yes, she did beat a subpar Yuna at Worlds but then no one else really step up at that competition.

AxelAnnie
12-16-2010, 06:10 PM
Miki - all correct. I am intrigued by the thought that she is not motivated. Fascinating. I had never thought of that. It is a bit like someone blew the flame out. I hope she rallies, cause the longer she is in the slump, the more difficult it is to turn the ship around.

Question: Is Mao the skater who, if they messed up would pout and display her disappointment with tears in the Kiss 'n Cry? I can't remember who that was.

miki88
12-16-2010, 06:20 PM
Miki - all correct. I am intrigued by the thought that she is not motivated. Fascinating. I had never thought of that. It is a bit like someone blew the flame out. I hope she rallies, cause the longer she is in the slump, the more difficult it is to turn the ship around.

Question: Is Mao the skater who, if they messed up would pout and display her disappointment with tears in the Kiss 'n Cry? I can't remember who that was.

I thought Caroline Z was the one who pouts. Mao used to cry when she messed up. I remember she cried once and she was in 1st after the SP! Recently, her reactions are very subdued.
I'm not sure about the motivation factor because I'always felt she was very motivated. She's relearning most of her jumps. It must be very hard to relearn even one jump, so even if she were motivated, the technique may just not be ready. Of course, I am not discouting the mental aspect of the whole thing. I think it's probably a combination of technical and mental issues.

wonderlen
12-16-2010, 06:28 PM
At this point in term of TES potentail assuming they all land clean with no downgrade:

1) Suzuki (3F+2T, 2A+3T, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3Lo+2T, 3F, 3S+2T+2Lo) 43.6~
2) Kanako (3T+3T, 3F+2T, 3Lz, 2A, 3F, 3Lo, 3S+2T+2Lo) 41.5~
3) Ando (3Lz+2Lo, 3Lo, 2A+3T, 3S, 3Lz, 3T, 2A+2Lo+2Lo) 40.5~

Suzuki has potential to score the highest in base value, but she doesn't usually get high +GOE and problem with edge call that will hurt her.
Kanako has pretty competitive TES score and one edge call on her Lutz, but she usually get huge +GOE for her 3+3.
Miki has solid TES value, but her problem is low level in non jump elements which hurt her when you compare her with skaters like Alissa and Marai who can milk out tons of +GOE points.

So if I were JSF, Kanako is a lock for the team, because she can potentially have the highest TES score (aside from Kim) and decent and consistent levels on all her non jump elements and I'm sure her PCS mark will be boost up alot by world and out score both Ando and Suzuki. Ando still have trouble with her Flip jump, which been < all season and her spins and spiral. Suzuki still making silly mistake like poping and doubling jumps.

At this point Mao is a big question mark. Her program just too ambitious for someone who is relearning her jumps, and if she plan her program like Calrolina, mainly Loop, 2Axel, Flips and Toe Loop, she can score even higher than Kostner. Her LP just simply divine it will be a shame to not show case at world.

miki88
12-16-2010, 06:48 PM
So if I were JSF, Kanako is a lock for the team, because she can potentially have the highest TES score (aside from Kim) and decent and consistent levels on all her non jump elements and I'm sure her PCS mark will be boost up alot by world and out score both Ando and Suzuki. Ando still have trouble with her Flip jump, which been < all season and her spins and spiral. Suzuki still making silly mistake like poping and doubling jumps.

Yes, I think she's a lock barring any disaster at Nationals (which I don't think will happen). If she has any problems, it'll be her LP, which is not as appealing as her SP, but she's being getting better. I wouldn't be surprised if she outscores both Ando and Suzuki at Worlds, if that's the team they choose to send.



At this point Mao is a big question mark. Her program just too ambitious for someone who is relearning her jumps, and if she plan her program like Calrolina, mainly Loop, 2Axel, Flips and Toe Loop, she can score even higher than Kostner. Her LP just simply divine it will be a shame to not show case at world.

I agree. I think it would be good if the simplify her layouts. It would be a shame not to see her skate her LP fairly clean this season. If that happens, I hope she keeps the program but make it into a SP. Leisbestraum tend to become a bit repetitive so I think SP might be a better for this music. I don't like the Tango but then I never really liked TAT programs for her. I really hope Mao goes to different choreographers in the future.

haribobo
12-17-2010, 02:56 AM
Suzuki is already the #4 in national orders. She has zero chance to win (medal) at worlds. Because she can never make the final flight of FS.

Maybe in the past, but she could do it this year. I know 2 Americans, Kostner, Yuna, and Murakami could beat her in a SP... Mao or Miki could get back in form or Makarova or Korpi could hit. Lepisto? It's so hard to say. Akiko is still a medal contendor though IMO, moreso than last year.

I think what this all boils down to is that Mao and Miki have been the starts but lately are serious question marks...Miki with her injury and Mao with her popped jumps. Kanako and Akiko have been more impressive lately. Nationals should be something to see. It's terrible that 4 can't go.