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View Full Version : Phil Hersh - there still is time to enroll at Stanford for the winter quarter



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Frau Muller
01-31-2011, 08:00 PM
In this latest article, Hersch gives a hint at who he thinks might be the US ladies at the Sochi Olys:

Might that be Agnes Zawadzki, 16, who finished fourth last night in her senior debut; Christina Gao, 16, fifth for the second straight year; or Courtney Hicks, 15, who was dazzling in winning the junior title?

Or all three?

Hersch certainly has a point. He wasn't even thinking of other possibilities among young ladies who didn't even compate here due to injuries, such as Cesario and Baga. Or the amazing Angela Maxwell, who has taken some time off but may be back. Or the rapidly-improving Vanessa Lam or Yasmin Siraj, who DID compete in Sr nats this year. Anybody who bets the farm on Czisny/Flatt/Nagasu being in Sochi will likely lose his shirt.

Iceman
01-31-2011, 08:50 PM
I won't be surprised if Orser has turned Gao into another "Yu-na" by Socho. I was amazed when I looked at the jump content of some of the juniors (as cf to the current ladies). If Rachael, Mirai, and Alissa plan on sticking around till then, they are going to have a fight on their hands or should I say, skates lol. Only one of them will probably be lucky enough to be on the podium used to determine the Olympic team. They are gonna be left behind in the dust. Wagner and Zhang probably have already been, no matter how well they are able to solve their problems. Neither imo is likely to give us an Alissa moment, a rarity.

IceAlisa
01-31-2011, 08:51 PM
Why doesn't he think that Nagasu will be a factor in Sochi? She is only 17. And Czisny is 23. Arakawa was 25 when she won the OGM and Czisny would be 26, although of course I realize that it's unlikely she will be there, more so than Nagasu.

Frau Muller
01-31-2011, 09:00 PM
Why doesn't he think that Nagasu will be a factor in Sochi? She is only 17......

Mental weakness and lack of discipline. He's cited these at various times, not necessarily in the above article.

Polymer Bob
01-31-2011, 09:36 PM
I think what we have to remember is that usually, USUALLY, who goes to the Olympics, and who wins the Olympics is a matter of who is skating well at that moment. It's not usually who is the best or greatest. Was Shizuka the greatest? No, she was just skating the best at that time. Was Sarah the greatest? No, she was just skating the best at that time.

Braulio
01-31-2011, 09:41 PM
I think what we have to remember is that usually, USUALLY, who goes to the Olympics, and who wins the Olympics is a matter of who is skating well at that moment. It's not usually who is the best or greatest. Was Shizuka the greatest? No, she was just skating the best at that time. Was Sarah the greatest? No, she was just skating the best at that time.

Spot on!

Nekatiivi
01-31-2011, 09:45 PM
And didn't people say the same things about Nagasu. Zhang, Flatt and maybe even Wagner when they were still juniors?

There are always lots of talented junior ladies but most of them will never make it big. I think most of new talented US ladies will be done by 2014 due injuries, changed body type, lack of interest... I think Nagasu, Flatt and Czisny have fairly good chances to still by around 2014.

B.Cooper
01-31-2011, 10:50 PM
I wish Phil would check his facts....and actually not just include only what he chooses to see/remember to support his theories....
Flatt has hardly been in a downward spiral this year. 2nd at both her SGP events, (prior to injury), winning the LP at each of those events Not what I would call "downward".

Oly cycles: I suspect that there will be a rotation of some new faces in this next cycle. With the content that the skaters now carry into their programs and the wear and tear on their bodies due to the demands of the new judging system, I don't think many of these skaters want to go through more than one or two cycles. Dominance, as back in the era of the 6.0, is a thing of the past IMO.

I think the bigger question here is....why do people read Hersch? I would much rather read an article from a sports journalist who describes the events and results in an exciting factual manner that makes the reader wish they had been part of the event. Hersch could have also written an article about the men's LP at US Nationals....the young guns in the last two flights skating lights out, SO after SO after SO, Ryan Bradley's interpretation of Amadeus Mozart (and yes, maybe the technical wasn't what it could have been)...but for those who saw him skate, it was way too much fun! Lets focus on the postive, Phil!

Jammers
01-31-2011, 11:03 PM
And didn't people say the same things about Nagasu. Zhang, Flatt and maybe even Wagner when they were still juniors?

There are always lots of talented junior ladies but most of them will never make it big. I think most of new talented US ladies will be done by 2014 due injuries, changed body type, lack of interest... I think Nagasu, Flatt and Czisny have fairly good chances to still by around 2014.

That may be true but when people were raving about Caroline back in 2007, 2008 they totally ignored her lack of speed and awful jumps. It should have been clear she was going to have to improve a ton to be a decent skater in the future.I don't think Rachael ever dazzled people when she was a Junior skater either. Out of the four Mirai seemed to have the most potential. But none of them had even had their growth spurts yet. It's always a crapshoot with girls this young.

luenatic
01-31-2011, 11:12 PM
That may be true but when people were raving about Caroline back in 2007, 2008 ...

Really? People were raving about Caroline? She was talked about in various FS forums even when she was a novice skater. It was all about her under rotated jumps, flawed techniques, etc.

If you think 'mule kick' is terms of endearment, I guess people were raving about Caroline...

Jammers
01-31-2011, 11:17 PM
I was talking more about how the media was talking about her. Listening to NBC in 2008 they were acting like she was the favorite at Nationals.

Nomad
01-31-2011, 11:19 PM
Really? People were raving about Caroline? She was talked about in various FS forums even when she was a novice skater. It was all about her under rotated jumps, flawed techniques, etc.

If you think 'mule kick' is terms of endearment, I guess people were raving about Caroline...

There was a Caroline Zhang gush thread on GS for quite a while. I don't know if it's still there - GS is a rather dull place to lurk.

pinky166
01-31-2011, 11:45 PM
Let's not forget that a few years back people thought Kimmie and Caroline were near locks for the 2010 Olympic team....funny how that worked out.

It's hard to tell what will happen. Injuries, body changes, changing interests, unfortunate financial circumstances, are all unpredictable and could result in any given skaters' career ending or taking a detour. Alissa has been skating for 21 years, how long can her body hold up? Flatt has bulging disks and surely does not want to put off her college for 3 more years, can she handle Stanford and skating and remain competitive? Ashley's physical condition is a question mark as well. Mirai has the talent but will she get frustrated and give up, or will we see her emerge as dominant. Will some of the youngsters plateau while others surprise and forge ahead.

Don't forget that in 05-06, Mao beat all three of the ladies who went on to medal at the Olympics and was considered the best in the Worlds. By 2010 Yuna had surpassed Mao and came into the Olympics as the overwhelming favorite for gold. So many people had also written off Carolina, Miki, Alissa, Cynthia in the past few years and now they have all made convincing comebacks. In 06-07, Laura Lepisto wasn't even a blip on the radar screen, and then she went on to win Euros in 2009 and medal at Worlds in 2010.

Basically, a LOT of things can happen between now and 2014, so predicting who will be there is pretty much pointless at this point.

Jammers
02-01-2011, 12:31 AM
For all we know some 13,14 year old wunderkind who's name we don't even know will be on the next US Olympic team. I mean in 1999 whoever heard of Sasha Cohen? Or in 1996 Tara Lipinski?

Nomad
02-01-2011, 12:38 AM
For all we know some 13,14 year old wunderkind who's name we don't even know will be on the next US Olympic team. I mean in 1999 whoever heard of Sasha Cohen? Or in 1996 Tara Lipinski?

I knew who Tara Lipinski was in 1996. She won the bronze at Sr. Nats. that year. :P