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chipso1
12-29-2010, 11:35 PM
I think this is another competition that is going to be decided in the SP. Which skaters can set themselves enough of a buffer in case they slip up in the Free.

I agree. Perhaps more than ever in recent years, the SP could be the deciding factor for who lands on the podium and who doesn't.

chipso1
12-29-2010, 11:37 PM
Also, she hasn't really bombed her SP that badly yet.

Umm, OK. Two sub-50 scores out of three attempts? :shuffle:

smarts1
12-29-2010, 11:53 PM
Her FS at 2009 nationals wasn't a meltdown by Alissa standards, it was just a typical Czisny FS. Her FS at TEB this season was almost a meltdown, but not quite, IMO. I will say that if she skates like that at nationals though, there is a good chance she won't make the world team, sort of ala Suzuki. You have to bring your A game when the field is this deep. I think a lot will also depend on the strictness of the technical caller, because Alissa's jumps are almost always borderline rotated, and whether she gets full credit for them or not really makes a difference in her marks. Last year I remember the tech caller at nationals was strict, downgrading 3 of Mirai's triples and most of Alissa's and Samantha's, so it's hard to say what will happen. At the GPF in the replay I thought for sure 2 of her jumps would have been marked < but none of them were.

What do you expect? Lisa Ervin is a sucky caller, who suggested that Ashley Wagner and Sasha Cohen don't flutz and that Caroline lips. Either way, if Lisa Ervin is the caller, then expect weird and harsh calls.

jjane45
12-30-2010, 02:12 AM
The dates and locations of 2011 Four Continents (Feb. 15-20 in Taiwan) and 2011 Junior Worlds (Feb. 28-March 6 in Korea) are not favorable for the same skaters to be assigned to both, IMO.
If someone is assigned to both, why not stay in Asia to train in the meanwhile? Would it be too costly or something?

chipso1
12-30-2010, 02:19 AM
If someone is assigned to both, why not stay in Asia to train in the meanwhile? Would it be too costly or something?

A skater assigned to both would also have to continue training both junior and senior programs (different requirements). That's also a really long time to be away from home, their regular training environments, etc.

oleada
12-30-2010, 02:28 AM
Well, Gao does not attempt a 3lz in the SP and only attempts one in her FS, and she doesn't even always get edge calls on it, so it's really a non-issue.

The only time Gao has not gotten an edge call internationally was the LP in JGP Germany. Every other lutz she has done has gotten an edge call.

That said, the calling at US Nats is sooo suspect, it might not matter.

jjane45
12-30-2010, 02:30 AM
A skater assigned to both would also have to continue training both junior and senior programs (different requirements). That's also a really long time to be away from home, their regular training environments, etc.

Thank you chipso1!

pinky166
12-30-2010, 02:52 AM
The only time Gao has not gotten an edge call internationally was the LP in JGP Germany. Every other lutz she has done has gotten an edge call.

That said, the calling at US Nats is sooo suspect, it might not matter.

She didn't get an edge call on her lutz at Thornhill this summer, either. But anyways, it's pretty much a non-issue because she does the jump ONCE between her 2 programs, so with the new GOE factoring it means she'll lose a point, a point and a half at most, on that jump. It's more concerning for the likes of Nagasu, Wagner, and Czisny because they all do their wrong edge jumps in the SP.

pinky166
12-30-2010, 03:00 AM
Umm, OK. Two sub-50 scores out of three attempts? :shuffle:

Junior events the scores are always way lower. I mean look at Russian nationals for example. Adelina, Liza, and Polina all skated similarly to how they did at the JGPF and their scores were much, much higher - Polina by about 12 points, Liza by about 20 points, Adelina by more than 25 points. Christina's SP score won't be sub 50 at senior nationals if she makes similar mistakes to those she made in Dresden and at the JGPF.

RD
12-30-2010, 03:04 AM
Junior events the scores are always way lower. I mean look at Russian nationals for example. Adelina, Liza, and Polina all skated similarly to how they did at the JGPF and their scores were much, much higher - Polina by about 12 points, Liza by about 20 points, Adelina by more than 25 points. Christina's SP score won't be sub 50 at senior nationals if she makes similar mistakes to those she made in Dresden and at the JGPF.

I think you have it backwards...scores at Russian nationals are always insanely high.

pinky166
12-30-2010, 03:18 AM
I think you have it backwards...scores at Russian nationals are always insanely high.

And scores at US nationals aren't? Rachael Flatt breaking the 200 point mark last season....enough said.

RD
12-30-2010, 03:50 AM
And scores at US nationals aren't? Rachael Flatt breaking the 200 point mark last season....enough said.

Well, of course.

chipso1
12-30-2010, 03:57 AM
And scores at US nationals aren't? Rachael Flatt breaking the 200 point mark last season....enough said.

RD's point was that scoring at all Nationals is always inflated. Obviously Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva aren't getting 60's internationally for flawed SPs, just like Flatt isn't breaking 200 internationally.

pinky166
12-30-2010, 04:29 AM
RD's point was that scoring at all Nationals is always inflated. Obviously Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva aren't getting 60's internationally for flawed SPs, just like Flatt isn't breaking 200 internationally.

True, but I still think there's something to be said about the differences between scores at junior and senior events. Ksenia last season was scoring in the high 40s to mid 50s for her SP and high 70s to low 90s for her FS on the JGP and then went on to score high 50s to low 60s for her SP and 110 ish for her FS at the Olympics and Worlds. Min-Jung Kwak was scoring in the high 30s and low 40s for her SP and high 60s to low 70s for her FS on the JGP and then went on to score mid 50s for her SP and 100+ for her FS at 4CC and the Olympics. Kanako last season never scored much above 100 for her FS on the JGP and this season she's been putting up numbers between 110 and 120!

triple_toe
12-30-2010, 05:14 AM
Err, I'm thinking I might be kicking myself for getting into the discussion, but pinky, don't you think that the skaters you mentioned might be getting higher scores because they are *skating* better? And because senior programs have more elements? It's also pretty ridiculous to argue that junior scores are low, since some of the highest scores of the season have been from the jgp...