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Cheylana
12-29-2010, 06:23 PM
Thanks for the clip. Not much jumping going on, but I'm totally :eek: at how much softness her skating has acquired. Never imagined her movement could be like this back when she won Worlds.


Yes, quite the 180, no?


I agree, I wouldn't have even guessed that was Kimmie. I gotta say it is a huge improvement for me.
Next time the haters say Rachael can't possibly improve, maybe I'll point to this video :)

mgobluegirl
12-29-2010, 06:41 PM
I would be shocked if Cesario made the final warm-up for the FS. Even if she skates well and rotates her jumps, I just don't think she's in that top tier yet, and it's pretty crowded at the top.

pinky166
12-29-2010, 06:47 PM
Who should worry is "flutzy Gao." :)

If she bombs another SP she will probably get buried and then get edge calls in her LP and be lucky to make the top ten.

Too bad she doesn't skate for a smaller federation.

Well, Gao does not attempt a 3lz in the SP and only attempts one in her FS, and she doesn't even always get edge calls on it, so it's really a non-issue. An edge call on ONE jump between her 2 programs is not going to make or break her. Besides, it's not like the other ladies are immune to edge calls either, Ashley and Mirai often get them on their lutzes and Alissa and Agnes on their flips.

Also, she hasn't really bombed her SP that badly yet. Her marks in the JGPF were out of line because her 3lo was clearly rotated and her second 3t looked fine too. In Germany she fell on her 3f and because it was a junior competition she couldn't add a combo to her 3lo and so she lost out on a couple of easy points. Also she has been very consistent in the FS this season and has managed to score over 100 for all of them, despite making a mistake or two in each of them. I think if Christina is clean at nationals she's looking at 60-65 for the SP and around 120 for the FS, which should be enough to get her on the podium.

icellist
12-29-2010, 06:54 PM
By the long list of skaters, I think USFS will really want their three spots back for Worlds and give "padding" to skaters.
After GPF, the padding will be given to Mirai and Alissa. Mirai because she has what it takes, and Alissa because her high scores for lackluster performances.
The alternates will probably be Ashley or Rachael.

I'm predicting
1/2 Mirai
1/2 Alissa
3/5 Rachael (Her new SP makes my prediction iffy)
3/4 Ashley
5 Zawadzki
6 Yasmin
7 Christina
8 Caroline Z
9 Lam/Cesario/Baga

Then 4CC will have Ashley/Rachael, Zawadzki, Caroline (for her history of doing well at the event) and alternate is Christina

Yasmin, Lam, Cesario, Baga, <gold juniors skater> can duke it out for junior worlds

pinky166
12-29-2010, 07:09 PM
I would be shocked if Cesario made the final warm-up for the FS. Even if she skates well and rotates her jumps, I just don't think she's in that top tier yet, and it's pretty crowded at the top.

I mean she might not get really high PCS but I don't see any reason she can't make the top 6 if she skates clean, because realistically not all the favorites will be clean in the SP, it just never works that way.

pinky166
12-29-2010, 07:16 PM
By the long list of skaters, I think USFS will really want their three spots back for Worlds and give "padding" to skaters.
After GPF, the padding will be given to Mirai and Alissa. Mirai because she has what it takes, and Alissa because her high scores for lackluster performances.
The alternates will probably be Ashley or Rachael.

I'm predicting
1/2 Mirai
1/2 Alissa
3/5 Rachael (Her new SP makes my prediction iffy)
3/4 Ashley
5 Zawadzki
6 Yasmin
7 Christina
8 Caroline Z
9 Lam/Cesario/Baga

Then 4CC will have Ashley/Rachael, Zawadzki, Caroline (for her history of doing well at the event) and alternate is Christina

Yasmin, Lam, Cesario, Baga, <gold juniors skater> can duke it out for junior worlds

I think there's a strong possibility Zawadzki and Gao get sent to junior worlds if they aren't assigned to Worlds and/or 4CC, or even if they are assigned to 4CC, they might go to JW as well. They can probably place higher there than Baga, Cesario, and Yasmin can.

Also, if we are talking about laying eggs, Yasmin layed an even bigger egg at the JGPF than Christina. Her 3lutz and 3lo are pretty inconsistent and she only has 5 triples planned in her FS so I'd be surprised if she placed ahead of Christina at nationals.

I think the results will look something like:

1.) Mirai
2.) Ashley
3.) Christina
4.) Alissa
5.) Rachael
6.) Agnes
7.) Vanessa
8.) Yasmin
9.) Samantha
10.) Caroline
11.) Kiri
12.) Melissa

This is assuming they skate as usual - meaning Alissa makes enough mistakes to wind up below a well skating Mirai, Ashley, and Christina, Rachael doesn't do a 3-3 in the SP and downgrades in the FS keep her off the podium, Alexe bombs and is out of the top 12, Agnes skates like she did on the GP, Yasmin has her usual jump issues but skates pretty well overall, Caroline is solid in the SP but falters in the FS, Kiri is not her best because of her injuries, and Samantha and Melissa skate well but PCS keeps them from finishing higher (also maybe some downgrades for Cesario).

RD
12-29-2010, 07:23 PM
Anyone on that list is capable of laying an egg. Some *cough*Czisny,Zawadki*cough* are more prone than others, however.

I think this is another competition that is going to be decided in the SP. Which skaters can set themselves enough of a buffer in case they slip up in the Free.

icellist
12-29-2010, 07:23 PM
oh dear we seem to have forgotten about Dobbs

Sylvia
12-29-2010, 07:24 PM
The dates and locations of 2011 Four Continents (Feb. 15-20 in Taiwan) and 2011 Junior Worlds (Feb. 28-March 6 in Korea) are not favorable for the same skaters to be assigned to both, IMO.

pinky166
12-29-2010, 08:06 PM
oh dear we seem to have forgotten about Dobbs

Love her! I think a lot will depend on if she does the 3t-3t in the SP and if she can land the 3f in competition. If she does the 3-3 and lands her flips, then she should easily make the top 10, maybe even the top 6.

smarts1
12-29-2010, 09:48 PM
By the long list of skaters, I think USFS will really want their three spots back for Worlds and give "padding" to skaters.
After GPF, the padding will be given to Mirai and Alissa. Mirai because she has what it takes, and Alissa because her high scores for lackluster performances.
The alternates will probably be Ashley or Rachael.

I'm predicting
1/2 Mirai
1/2 Alissa
3/5 Rachael (Her new SP makes my prediction iffy)
3/4 Ashley
5 Zawadzki
6 Yasmin
7 Christina
8 Caroline Z
9 Lam/Cesario/Baga

Then 4CC will have Ashley/Rachael, Zawadzki, Caroline (for her history of doing well at the event) and alternate is Christina

Yasmin, Lam, Cesario, Baga, <gold juniors skater> can duke it out for junior worlds

3-4-5 only go to 4CC if there's another competition that conflicts with 4CC (or is too close to another major competition) (like the Olympics)... So 1-2-3 will go to 4CC this year.

I'm not going to completely put my money on Alissa yet. She has more severe under-rotation issues than she did in the past (even if she is finally rotating and landing her jumps now). And even if Alissa has had good showings on her GPs this season, headcases will always be headcases.

olympic
12-29-2010, 10:34 PM
3-4-5 only go to 4CC if there's another competition that conflicts with 4CC (or is too close to another major competition) (like the Olympics)... So 1-2-3 will go to 4CC this year.

I'm not going to completely put my money on Alissa yet. She has more severe under-rotation issues than she did in the past (even if she is finally rotating and landing her jumps now). And even if Alissa has had good showings on her GPs this season, headcases will always be headcases.

AFAIK, one good thing about Alissa this season is her performance at GPF. She skated 5th out of 6 in the SP and last in the LP, mostly delivering her LP after all of Ando, Suzuki, Murakami and Kostner layed down great LPs. She has never made it this far into the season to a pressure packed intl. event without a royal meltdown. The one season I can recall where everyone really sat up and took notice of her was '05 - '06 and she bombed that GPF, so at least she's made it this far. I don't count her '09 nats performance of 3 triples and one splat

pinky166
12-29-2010, 10:42 PM
AFAIK, one good thing about Alissa this season is her performance at GPF. She skated 5th out of 6 in the SP and last in the LP, mostly delivering her LP after all of Ando, Suzuki, Murakami and Kostner layed down great LPs. She has never made it this far into the season to a pressure packed intl. event without a royal meltdown. The one season I can recall where everyone really sat up and took notice of her was '05 - '06 and she bombed that GPF, so at least she's made it this far. I don't count her '09 nats performance of 3 triples and one splat

Her FS at 2009 nationals wasn't a meltdown by Alissa standards, it was just a typical Czisny FS. Her FS at TEB this season was almost a meltdown, but not quite, IMO. I will say that if she skates like that at nationals though, there is a good chance she won't make the world team, sort of ala Suzuki. You have to bring your A game when the field is this deep. I think a lot will also depend on the strictness of the technical caller, because Alissa's jumps are almost always borderline rotated, and whether she gets full credit for them or not really makes a difference in her marks. Last year I remember the tech caller at nationals was strict, downgrading 3 of Mirai's triples and most of Alissa's and Samantha's, so it's hard to say what will happen. At the GPF in the replay I thought for sure 2 of her jumps would have been marked < but none of them were.

luvsasha2
12-29-2010, 11:12 PM
Well you have a point but your data also just proves how all over the place her nationals results have been. But her 104 FS score for that mess of a program in Paris is encouraging that even if she bombs, she will likely be in the top 6.

Oh, of course it does. but it also shows how she is kind of consistently inconsistent.
I'm not trying to prove one way or another, just supplying some interesting info.

chipso1
12-29-2010, 11:33 PM
I think she will definitely be in the top 6 after the SP, but if she continues to melt down in the FS like she did in both her GP events, then I think she could easily fall out of the top 6 in the FS, and probably overall too, depending on how others skate. There are lots of strong ladies this year.

Nagasu
Czisny
Flatt
Wagner
Gao
Zawadzki
Siraj
Lam
Dobbs
Cesario

I expect will make up the top 10, but you can't count out skaters like Zhang (Caroline and Felicia), Gilles, Bulanhagui, Baga, and probably some others too, so that's intense competition to make even the top 10, let alone the top 6.

Except all those ladies are prone to meltdowns in the FS too. A 4-triple Agnes will beat both the Zhangs, Gilles, Bulanhagui, Baga, Dobbs, and probably all three of Cesario/Lam/Siraj. The GOE she received on her jumps and spins during the GP series were huge, and I expect them to be even a bit higher in Greensboro due to Nationals inflation.