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pinky166
12-29-2010, 05:12 AM
I'd even argue that if Zawadki skates like she did in the GP, she won't be in the top 6/7.

Agreed. And don't forget Alissa, she could win the whole thing or bomb badly and be out of the top 6, her track record at nationals is not great. Baga has been injured most of the season so I don't really expect her to be top 6 - she and Zhang I think will likely be in the lower top 10. There's no reason why Sam can't be in the top 6, she has improved tremendously recently.

Jenna
12-29-2010, 05:32 AM
Yeah, I have a good feeling about her actually. I hope she gets some more Senior Bs/JGPs. A SGP would be amazing, but unrealistic, unless she is in fact in the top 6.

smarts1
12-29-2010, 02:20 PM
Well we'll need to see what happens at Nationals... Hoping for the best from everyone!

olympic
12-29-2010, 03:29 PM
Question about Yasmin Siraj - will she also skate in Sr. Nats.? She does have the potential to be in the final group heading into the LP if she is clean, and any of Flatt, Gao, or Czisny bomb

pinky166
12-29-2010, 03:52 PM
Question about Yasmin Siraj - will she also skate in Sr. Nats.? She does have the potential to be in the final group heading into the LP if she is clean, and any of Flatt, Gao, or Czisny bomb

Yeah she is competing at senior nationals this season, but isn't old enough for senior ISU championships until the 2012-2013 season because her birthday is in July. If she skates her SP like she did at the JGP in Sheffield, I think she could very easily be in the top 6 going into the FS, it's a fantastic program and when she skates well she usually gets high PCS.

Also, according to Cesario's icenetwork profile, her goal for this season is to be the US champion. So even more ambitious, but I like her skating and determination and that she isn't trying to hide behind this "I just want to skate my best" excuse so many skaters give these days. http://web.icenetwork.com/skaters/detail.jsp?id=100850&mode=I

pinky166
12-29-2010, 04:02 PM
Even with her poor GP free skate showings, Agnes is still a top 6 U.S. senior lady, IMO. She has the 3rd highest SP score (behind Czisny and Nagasu), and has been hovering around the high 90s for very poor free skates. With the inconsistency of the other U.S. ladies, I think her huge 3T+3T and positive GOEs will keep her among the top 5/6.

I think she will definitely be in the top 6 after the SP, but if she continues to melt down in the FS like she did in both her GP events, then I think she could easily fall out of the top 6 in the FS, and probably overall too, depending on how others skate. There are lots of strong ladies this year.

Nagasu
Czisny
Flatt
Wagner
Gao
Zawadzki
Siraj
Lam
Dobbs
Cesario

I expect will make up the top 10, but you can't count out skaters like Zhang (Caroline and Felicia), Gilles, Bulanhagui, Baga, and probably some others too, so that's intense competition to make even the top 10, let alone the top 6.

luvsasha2
12-29-2010, 04:02 PM
Agreed. And don't forget Alissa, she could win the whole thing or bomb badly and be out of the top 6, her track record at nationals is not great. Baga has been injured most of the season so I don't really expect her to be top 6 - she and Zhang I think will likely be in the lower top 10. There's no reason why Sam can't be in the top 6, she has improved tremendously recently.

Actually, if Alissa follows her previous pattern, she will do well at Nationals.
Previous track record:
07-3rd
08-9th
09-1st
10-10th
So, she does poorly on the even years, and well on the odd years. well, next year's an odd year, so here's hoping she does well. I love her skating so much! :)

pinky166
12-29-2010, 04:04 PM
Actually, if Alissa follows her previous pattern, she will do well at Nationals.
Previous track record:
07-3rd
08-9th
09-1st
10-10th
So, she does poorly on the even years, and well on the odd years. well, next years an odd year, so here's hoping she does well. I love her skating so much! :)

Well you have a point but your data also just proves how all over the place her nationals results have been. But her 104 FS score for that mess of a program in Paris is encouraging that even if she bombs, she will likely be in the top 6.

RD
12-29-2010, 04:27 PM
DON'T BE SHOCKED, people, if she is given some padding, especially if she does really well in the SP and has a TEB-type FS. I don't think a score approaching 70 is out of the question for an ABSOLUTELY clean Czisny SP performance.

pinky166
12-29-2010, 04:35 PM
DON'T BE SHOCKED, people, if she is given some padding, especially if she does really well in the SP and has a TEB-type FS. I don't think a score approaching 70 is out of the question for an ABSOLUTELY clean Czisny SP performance.

Oh of course not, considering Rachael Flatt and flutzy Sasha both nearly hit the 70 mark last season for their SPs, and Mirai broke 70 when she was like, 14. Alissa just can't totally bomb her SP like she did last season, because then she could very well end up skating in the penultimate group for the FS and will be less likely to receive PCS padding. If she has a step out or one fall in the SP, she should be fine, but she can't fall on her first jump, double her second, and not do a combination like she did last season and expect to skate in the final warmup for the FS. Her FS can be a mess and she should still get a decent score, even if she has a lot of downgrades, she usually cracks 100 even internationally for 2 fall, 3 triple performances.

MrLucky
12-29-2010, 04:52 PM
Oh of course not, considering Rachael Flatt and flutzy Sasha both nearly hit the 70 mark last season for their SPs, and Mirai broke 70 when she was like, 14. Alissa just can't totally bomb her SP like she did last season, because then she could very well end up skating in the penultimate group for the FS and will be less likely to receive PCS padding. If she has a step out or one fall in the SP, she should be fine, but she can't fall on her first jump, double her second, and not do a combination like she did last season and expect to skate in the final warmup for the FS. Her FS can be a mess and she should still get a decent score, even if she has a lot of downgrades, she usually cracks 100 even internationally for 2 fall, 3 triple performances.

Who should worry is "flutzy Gao." :)

If she bombs another SP she will probably get buried and then get edge calls in her LP and be lucky to make the top ten.

Too bad she doesn't skate for a smaller federation.

olympic
12-29-2010, 05:42 PM
Who should worry is "flutzy Gao." :)



I'd be careful. You're probably about to get served :watch:

Anyway, I've given it some thought and expect to see the ladies standings after the SP to be something like this -

1. Alissa - 70 pts. if clean. I actually have more confidence in her right now. Her worst mistakes in the SP have been step-outs
2. Mirai - 67 pts. if clean and with a 3-2; around a clean Alissa if Mirai attempts a 3-3
3. Ashley - 65 pts. if she lands a 3-3. Her SPs are better this year.
4. Christina - 65 pts. if she goes for and lands a 3f-3t; but behind Agnes if only a 3t-3t. She's capable to bomb, though, in which case out of the top 6.
5. Agnes - 64 pts. if she just goes out and hits it like always. Christina will only be in front of her with a clean SP and a 3f-3t.
6. Rachael or Yasmin - 62 pts. Between the injury and her SPs this year, I don't think Rachael will be among the leaders unfortunately. But, she'll be close enough to mount a comeback. Yasmin has the ability to sneak into 6th if Rachael is flawed, or perhaps someone like Christina really bombs, Alissa has a nightmarish SP [despite it all, you just never know with her].

----------------

The rest - Caroline could flirt with 60 pts. if she holds it together, but won't be in the final group unless there are a few catastrophes above. Vanessa could also be around 60 pts. if clean.

Sylvia
12-29-2010, 05:48 PM
There was a hearsay report posted before Christmas that Lori Nichol may have choreographed a new SP for Rachael: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=2993033&postcount=416
ETA: Will be interesting to see what impact it may have...

olympic
12-29-2010, 05:50 PM
There was a hearsay report posted before Christmas that Lori Nichol may have choreographed a new SP for Rachael: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=2993033&postcount=416
Will be interesting to see...

Oooh. Interesting. If true, Tom Z, Lori and Rachael probably realized something wasn't working. Still, I think she'll need a 3-3 in the SP by Nats to defend her crown

danafan
12-29-2010, 06:22 PM
I know you can't compare scores from competition to competition blah blah blah - but Alissa Czisny is currently #1 on the ISU season's best list for 2010/2011 with her GPF total:

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2010-11/sbtslto.htm