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oleada
12-30-2010, 05:17 AM
Err, I'm thinking I might be kicking myself for getting into the discussion, but pinky, don't you think that the skaters you mentioned might be getting higher scores because they are *skating* better? And because senior programs have more elements? It's also pretty ridiculous to argue that junior scores are low, since some of the highest scores of the season have been from the jgp...

I'm going to kick myself too, but as an example, I'm just going to point out that neither Kwak nor Makarova did not skate a clean SPs in either of their two JGP events last year.

burntBREAD
12-30-2010, 05:19 AM
True, but I still think there's something to be said about the differences between scores at junior and senior events. Ksenia last season was scoring in the high 40s to mid 50s for her SP and high 70s to low 90s for her FS on the JGP and then went on to score high 50s to low 60s for her SP and 110 ish for her FS at the Olympics and Worlds. Min-Jung Kwak was scoring in the high 30s and low 40s for her SP and high 60s to low 70s for her FS on the JGP and then went on to score mid 50s for her SP and 100+ for her FS at 4CC and the Olympics. Kanako last season never scored much above 100 for her FS on the JGP and this season she's been putting up numbers between 110 and 120!

Well, for Ksenia and Min-Jung, they were pretty much either bombing or making mistakes in their JGP outings, and skated relatively cleanly once making the senior level, so it's a bit different. Kanako also generally had at least one mistake in her LPs (or got downgrades), and this season she started with a low, low score but her PCS has been the thing that has caused her scores to increase. There's also more elements in a senior's program. Clearly, too, this season, the junior scores haven't exactly been low.

I have to say, though, I sometimes feel like judges at junior events are more inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, there are fishy calls but there always are and will be) as well as good scores. I mean, is a triple lutz-triple toe of the same quality more impressive when done by a 13 year old or by a 20 year old? There are some unwarranted extra points being given. Does anyone else think so?

edit: both oleada and triple_toe stated exactly what I wanted to say.

victoriaheidi
12-30-2010, 06:06 AM
I don't know about a couple of things:

1. Rachael's had some time to heal. And I hope there's some truth to that new SP rumor.
2. Alissa has always been inconsistent. This is the first time she's had this much consistency.
3. I always wonder what Ashley has brewing...she really could spoil everything. Mirai is great, but she's also not known for perfect consistency.
4. The ultimate spoilers, as I see it, are Lam and Zawadzki-not that they could claim the title this year, but that both have had some time to really work their programs and I'm kind of curious what they're going to be like at nats.
5. There are also the JGPF girls-Gao, Siraj and Gong-and Cesario, but I don't think any of them is going to be such a major player that we'll be looking at a repeat 2008 (sorry, Pinky!). I like them all and I think they all have huge potential, but I think the focus is on getting back to three spots at Worlds, and I don't think any of these girls is the safest bet (not that I can think of any truly safe bet).
6. There's also the peripheral crowd, like the Zhangs, Gilles, Mel B, etc...people we WANT to see do really well, but I'm just not sure.
7. Amanda Dobbs doesn't fit into anything I've said above.

My prediction, in terms of the warm-up groups (all in no particular order, divided into fives):
First group: Khazova, Bell, Traunero, Zhou, West
Second group: Forte, Musademba, Kawamura, F. Zhang, Kahle
Third group: Gong, Siraj, Gilles, Bulanhagui, Cesario
Fourth group: C. Zhang, Gao, Lam, Baga, Dobbs
Fifth group: Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Nagasu, Zawadzki

Again, those names aren't in any particular order, and the difference between the last in one group and the first in the next can be very tiny (as you all well know). And I can't imagine why they'd do 5 warm-up groups of 5. But whatever. I guess you can say I divided this into the fifths. But whatever. Just my 2.

icellist
12-30-2010, 09:50 AM
My prediction, in terms of the warm-up groups (all in no particular order, divided into fives):
First group: Khazova, Bell, Traunero, Zhou, West
Second group: Forte, Musademba, Kawamura, F. Zhang, Kahle
Third group: Gong, Siraj, Gilles, Bulanhagui, Cesario
Fourth group: C. Zhang, Gao, Lam, Baga, Dobbs
Fifth group: Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Nagasu, Zawadzki



I really like your list except I would change Lam and Baga with Gong and Siraj
Vanessa has tiny jumps (but great spins and speed)
Baga is coming off an injury and is lacking practice time

I didnt know Zhou and Kawamura made it!
Is that the complete roster for the senior ladies?

Sylvia
12-30-2010, 02:32 PM
Is that the complete roster for the senior ladies?
Yes, it's 25 Senior ladies total (13 byes and 12 qualifying via Sectionals).

* = 1st year Senior at Nationals (9 total)

Byes through Mids: Flatt, Gao, Gilles, Zawadzki*, Baga*
M1 Alissa Czisny
M2 Morgan Bell*
M3 Katy Jo West*
M4 Tatyana Khazova

Byes through Easterns: Wagner, Musademba, Siraj*, F. Zhang*
E1 Samantha Cesario
E2 Melissa Bulanhagui
E3 Kelsey Traunero*
E4 Joelle Forte

Byes through Pacific Coasts: Nagasu, Dobbs, C. Zhang, Gong
P1 Vanessa Lam*
P2 Danielle Kahle
P3 Keli Zhou*
P4 Ellie Kawamura

Bell, Traunero, and West are making their first-ever trip to Nationals (they never previously qualified for Nationals at the Novice or Junior levels). Keli Zhou made one previous trip to Nationals as a junior in 2009. Kahle's last Nationals appearance was in 2008.

Sylvia
12-30-2010, 03:26 PM
Lansing (MI) State Journal article on Hannah Miller (Mids Novice gold medalist, age 14) that includes video: http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20101227/NEWS01/12270314/1001/NEWS
(Her father, Kevin, was a pro hockey player who was on Team USA at the 1988 Calgary Olympics.)
The Lansing State Journal's video is now on youtube and I think it's a very well-done segment, with interview clips of Hannah, coach Kirsten Miller-Zisholz, and Hannah's dad, Kevin, that accurately depicts what it's like for a young skater who's about to make their Novice National debut: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aZBPBcDW2A

B.Cooper
12-30-2010, 03:47 PM
I don't know about a couple of things:

1. Rachael's had some time to heal. And I hope there's some truth to that new SP rumor.
.

;) Yup....Flatt went to Toronto following the SGPFinal to work with Nichol (according to her FB page)....and the word is she has a terrific new SP!

pinky166
12-30-2010, 03:51 PM
My prediction, in terms of the warm-up groups (all in no particular order, divided into fives):
First group: Khazova, Bell, Traunero, Zhou, West
Second group: Forte, Musademba, Kawamura, F. Zhang, Kahle
Third group: Gong, Siraj, Gilles, Bulanhagui, Cesario
Fourth group: C. Zhang, Gao, Lam, Baga, Dobbs
Fifth group: Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Nagasu, Zawadzki



Usually the final warmup group will always have 6 skaters, so that means one of the earlier ones will likely have 4. My predictions:

1st group: Khazova, Bell, Traunero, West
2nd group: Zhou, Forte, Kawamura, Kahle, Musademba
3rd group: Gilles, Bulanhagui, F. Zhang, C. Zhang, Gong
4th group: Baga, Siraj, Lam, Dobbs, Cesario
5th group: Zawadzki, Gao, Czisny, Flatt, Wagner, Nagasu

Except I'm not even sure about Flatt. Her PCS will probably be high because it's nationals, but if she doesn't do a 3-3 that her score won't be that great. That being said, none of the girls I placed in the 4th group are planning a 3-3 as their combo, except for maybe Dobbs, who I think is the most likely to replace Flatt in the final group if she hits her 3t-3t and lands her 3f and Flatt doesn't do a 3-3.

apollo13
12-30-2010, 04:47 PM
My usual reaction to athletes who are way over-hyped before they actually do something great, is to root against them. And I think, I'm not the only one...

Sylvia
12-30-2010, 04:56 PM
My usual reaction to athletes who are way over-hyped before they actually do something great, is to root against them. And I think, I'm not the only one...
I understand this sentiment, but the SKATER, who's not doing the over-hyping, shouldn't be blamed for it. I don't like seeing skater(s) being rooted against just because of over-hyping by fans. Media over-hyping is a separate issue.

victoriaheidi
12-30-2010, 05:46 PM
1st group: Khazova, Bell, Traunero, West
2nd group: Zhou, Forte, Kawamura, Kahle, Musademba
3rd group: Gilles, Bulanhagui, F. Zhang, C. Zhang, Gong
4th group: Baga, Siraj, Lam, Dobbs, Cesario
5th group: Zawadzki, Gao, Czisny, Flatt, Wagner, Nagasu

Except I'm not even sure about Flatt. Her PCS will probably be high because it's nationals, but if she doesn't do a 3-3 that her score won't be that great. That being said, none of the girls I placed in the 4th group are planning a 3-3 as their combo, except for maybe Dobbs, who I think is the most likely to replace Flatt in the final group if she hits her 3t-3t and lands her 3f and Flatt doesn't do a 3-3.

I KNOW Rachael was bad at the GPF, but that was ONE competition. I have a hard time believing that someone whose nickname is "Rachael the Rock" would fall out of the top five at her own Nationals.

Also, the swap I see as more likely is Dobbs for Zawadzki, but that's one I'm not sure about.

query5
12-30-2010, 05:59 PM
i agree with the last group of 6
czisny, flatt, nagasu, wagner, gao, zawadzki.
why alissa pc's scores are going to be hughed.why when she made gthe gpf final the first time , she won nationals her international pc's scores was moderate of 52=55 and maybe a 56.
now she got a 61 in gpf and a 60 in sc with a fall. so i expect alissa pc's scores to be up there even with mistakes.
the rest i see c zhang in the first group.

PUNKPRINCESS
12-30-2010, 06:17 PM
Is the girl doing the layback in that photo Mirai? That is a gorgeous pic.


Nope, it's Alissa. :)

I took it last year at Nationals (it's from the short program). One of my faves as well...I have a large version of it framed. :)
You are a great photographer.


My usual reaction to athletes who are way over-hyped before they actually do something great, is to root against them. And I think, I'm not the only one...
Why, were you not hugged and encouraged enough as a child? :(

Sylvia
12-30-2010, 06:18 PM
Top International Short Program scores so far this season of the 17 Senior Ladies who competed internationally this fall and have qualified for 2011 US Nationals (updated following GPF/JGPF):
63.76 Czisny (GPF)
58.76 Nagasu (Cup of China)
58.07 Gao (JGP Austria)
56.84 Zawadzki (Cup of Russia)
56.17 Wagner (Cup of Russia)
55.66 Siraj (JGP Great Britain)
53.69 Flatt (NHK Trophy)
53.05 Lam (JGP Czech)
51.20 Bulanhagui (Nebelhorn)
50.70 C. Zhang (NHK Trophy)
50.09 Baga (JGP Japan)
47.08 Gong (JGP Romania)
46.53 Dobbs (Cup of China)
45.95 F. Zhang (JGP Germany)
44.86 Gilles (Skate America)
43.01 Cesario (JGP Romania)
40.80 Musademba (Cup of China)

Top 10 Senior SP scores at US Regionals or Sectionals:
60.48 Zawadzki (Southwestern Regional)
56.98 Czisny (Midwestern Sectional)
53.64 Lam (Pacific Coast Sectional)
52.13 Cesario (Eastern Sectional)
48.28 Forte (Eastern Sectional)
46.91 Traunero (Eastern Sectional)
46.85 Khazova (Southwestern Regional)
46.53 Kahle (Southwest Pacific Regional)
44.94 Bell (Midwestern Sectional)
44.52 Musademba (South Atlantic Regional)

The averaged SP scores of the 12 ladies that had at least 2 internationals this fall:
58.74 Nagasu (2 events)
58.40 Czisny (3 events)
56.57 Zawadzki (2)
54.55 Wagner (2)
50.68 C. Zhang (2)
50.00 Flatt (3)
49.92 Baga (2)
49.90 Gao (3)
46.80 Gong (3)
46.18 Dobbs (2)
45.49 Siraj (3)
42.94 Gilles (2)

Posted in this thread on Dec. 4th:

The averaged SP scores [before the GPF/JGPF]:
58.74 Nagasu
56.57 Zawadzki
55.73 Czisny
54.55 Wagner
52.87 Gao
52.36 Flatt
50.68 C. Zhang
49.92 Baga
49.19 Siraj
46.58 Gong
46.18 Dobbs

RD
12-30-2010, 07:27 PM
My usual reaction to athletes who are way over-hyped before they actually do something great, is to root against them. And I think, I'm not the only one...

The hype is one thing (I can take a certain amount of it), but the over-the-top, never-ending gushing and refusing to accept any sort of criticism is what slowly turns me against a skater.