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olympic
12-11-2010, 03:13 PM
I think the GPF has shaken up the order going into Nats:

Previously, I thought of Alissa as a wild card and dependable Rachael as a solid bet. Now, it's the exact opposite for me. So, the real fight will be among Alissa, Mirai, and Ashley which is actually fine as far as I'm concerned, but Rachael can still very much spoil. It will depend upon her recovery and commitment over the next 6 weeks.

But, let's not forget Ashley of everyone at the top, she has the most attack and of all the top US ladies she shows the least amount of fear. She's improved her consistency in the SP this season and hasn't she beaten Mirai in the LP at Nats the last 3 years? That's a threat. What may help Mirai, though, is FC in her corner which keeps her nerves in check most effectively. I'm still trying to assess the Priscilla Hill - Ashley relationship and if it's just as effective - Ashley still lets programs get away from her but perhaps not as much as in the past.

I'm a little LOL at the fact that a US lady won the GPF, the US qualified 2 ladies, and no US men qualified. It's a total flip from last year. Has balance been restored to the Universe? No, wait, the US still has good Ice Dance teams.

Squibble
12-11-2010, 03:46 PM
Do you know what this would do to my nerves? :scream:

Forewarned is forearmed. Schedule your doctor's appointment now. You can always cancel. ;)

victoriaheidi
12-11-2010, 04:59 PM
So, the real fight will be among Alissa, Mirai, and Ashley which is actually fine as far as I'm concerned, but Rachael can still very much spoil. It will depend upon her recovery and commitment over the next 6 weeks.


We're practically 7 weeks from Nats. At this point, I leave it at Alissa vs. Mirai vs. Ashley vs. Rachael and call it a day.

chipso1
12-11-2010, 08:02 PM
I voted for Nagasu/Flatt, but I think it will be Nagasu/Czisny. Alissa really showed her mental toughness at the GPF, and I think this will give her more confidence in her abilities. She hasn't had a FS score under 100 this season. :respec:

pinky166
12-11-2010, 08:06 PM
I hope to God that in another couple years we still aren't talking about the same skaters that we are now. Skaters like Rachael, Caroline and Ashley. If the younger skaters haven't passed them up in the next couple years Sochi is going to be an ugly time for ladies skating here in the USA. I figure that Alissa will have retired by then even with her resurgence. Rachael has peaked i believe and Caroline just is blah even with fixing her jumps the rest of her skating is average at best. Ashley always seems on the verge but doesn't come through when it counts. Of all the skaters that have come along in the last 3 years only Mirai has a chance to continue on and improve before Sochi.

I bet in a couple years Mirai will be the only one of the "veteran" ladies that's still a factor internationally, or maybe even still skating. Christina and Agnes are very strong in the jumping department already and in another year or so their overall packaging should be improved and they should be a force on the international stage. Then we'll probably have a new crop of skaters who are competing internationally and can mix things up, like Yasmin, Vanessa, Kiri, and maybe Samantha or Amanda, but are regarded as usually being below the likes of Mirai, Christina, and Agnes. That's what I see.

pinky166
12-11-2010, 08:08 PM
Oh and I still say Alissa can't tank at nats and make the World team. She probably doesn't have the be brilliant, but if she skates poorly and 2 other girls bring their A game I can totally see Alissa end up getting sent to 4CC instead while the 2 girls who skate well go to Worlds.

Sylvia
12-11-2010, 08:09 PM
Anyone remember how many votes Alissa had BEFORE the GP Final? ;)

As of now...

177 Mirai Nagasu 86.76%
134 Rachael Flatt 65.69%
76 Alissa Czisny 37.25%
37 Ashley Wagner 18.14%
11 Christina Gao 5.39%
8 Agnes Zawadzki 3.92%
3 Vanessa Lam 1.47%
3 Samantha Cesario 1.47%
3 Other (includes C. Zhang) 1.47%
2 Amanda Dobbs 0.98%

ks777
12-11-2010, 08:29 PM
It seems like switching coach to Yuka and Jason was a great move for Alissa. Her speed has gotten so much better since the switch.

smarts1
12-11-2010, 09:19 PM
I bet in a couple years Mirai will be the only one of the "veteran" ladies that's still a factor internationally, or maybe even still skating. Christina and Agnes are very strong in the jumping department already and in another year or so their overall packaging should be improved and they should be a force on the international stage. Then we'll probably have a new crop of skaters who are competing internationally and can mix things up, like Yasmin, Vanessa, Kiri, and maybe Samantha or Amanda, but are regarded as usually being below the likes of Mirai, Christina, and Agnes. That's what I see.

I'm not sure Yasmin, Vanessa, Kiri, and Samantha will survive the puberty monsters. Yasmin's technique isn't that strong and her jumps are already pretty small. Vanessa will probably lose her jumps as she gets virtually no height on any of her triples. Kiri also does not have the best technique on her jumps. Samantha is already a chronic under-rotator on her jumps. Amanda probably will not be able to add more difficult jumps to her reportoire. We'll have to see what Christina and Agnes do in the coming seasons. I see Flatt leaving competitive skating (a-la Emily Hughes). It's going to be too hard for her to balance skating and academics in college. So that leaves Wagner, Nagasu, Zhang (we'll see with her), and Czisny.

judgejudy27
12-11-2010, 09:28 PM
Zhang will probably get frusterated and quit in another year or two. And if she does continue she will likely become even more obsolete than she already now is. I agree on Flatt probably leaving competitive skating to be a full time student. I think Nagasu, Wagner, and possibly Czisny will stay in to try for 2014. How many of those, if any, make the next Olympic team is anyones guess.

olympic
12-11-2010, 10:22 PM
Zhang will probably get frusterated and quit in another year or two. And if she does continue she will likely become even more obsolete than she already now is. I agree on Flatt probably leaving competitive skating to be a full time student. I think Nagasu, Wagner, and possibly Czisny will stay in to try for 2014. How many of those, if any, make the next Olympic team is anyones guess.

Mirai was saying last season that 2010 was not her year, 2014 was. So, I definitely see her staying around.

As of now, Wagner and Czisny could hang around too. I don't see a bunch of US Juniors rising up to knock them out as top contenders. We're not Russia;)

chipso1
12-11-2010, 11:45 PM
I don't see a bunch of US Juniors rising up to knock them out as top contenders. We're not Russia;)

Perhaps not, but the U.S. is full of promising juniors, too. ;) At Nationals we'll see Hicks, Dinh, Marley, Kulgeyko, Daniels and many more, and then there's skaters like Wang and Gold that didn't even qualify. Obviously not all these girls will survive puberty, but I think we're in pretty good shape for the future. :) Heck, even this season our current seniors have done better than they've done in years.

personwhoishere
12-11-2010, 11:48 PM
I think Alissa may have finally turned a corner this season, and I would LOVE to see her and Wagner on the team. I think a Czisny/Nagasu team is more likely, however, and probably the US's best bet for getting 3 spots back.

olympic
12-11-2010, 11:53 PM
Perhaps not, but the U.S. is full of promising juniors, too. ;) At Nationals we'll see Hicks, Dinh, Marley, Kulgeyko, Daniels and many more, and then there's skaters like Wang and Gold that didn't even qualify. Obviously not all these girls will survive puberty, but I think we're in pretty good shape for the future. :) Heck, even this season our current seniors have done better than they've done in years.

Chipso1, my new philosophy is talking down US chances to not disappoint myself and get the skate Gods off my back :P. I secretly hope and believe there will be a few juniors who kick butt, there always are.

But I decided to watch some vids today of Sotnikova and was like :eek:

pinky166
12-12-2010, 01:11 AM
Mirai was saying last season that 2010 was not her year, 2014 was. So, I definitely see her staying around.

As of now, Wagner and Czisny could hang around too. I don't see a bunch of US Juniors rising up to knock them out as top contenders. We're not Russia;)

Wagner reminds unproven in the eyes of the international judges, on the international stage, she is nothing too special, so I tend to think some of these young girls can knock her out of being a top contender. As for Alissa, she is skating well this season but I think a lot will depend on 1.) if she can finally become consistent and 2.) how her body holds up over the next three and a half years. We see a lot of skaters in their mid twenties get injured and Alissa is very fragile looking to begin with. Also keep in mind that in a season or two the international judges may be giving her the nod to move on like they have done with Suguri and now Joubert and Ando.

Zhang will probably stay around for a few more seasons but if she can't step it up and it gets to the point where she's not getting 2 GP assignments or even international assignments at all, I think she'll quit and go to college. Education is very important in her family so I don't see her taking a few community college classes on the side while she is still skating, and I doubt she'll want to put off college 3 whole years because that would alter the normal college experience a lot for her.

If Dobbs can get more triples, she will be a force. Everything else about her skating is just so strong. I don't think you can count her out yet. She is very reminiscent of the Finnish ladies who the international judges love. Keep in mind Lepisto really didn't emerge as a top skater at all until she was about 19 or 20. Amanda only just turned 17, so she certainly still has time.

I think puberty will take some of the young skaters victim, but there are so many of them that I think some will survive and emerge as strong competitors and/or strong jumpers and/or lovely artistic skaters in another season or two.

I also think jumping and 3-3s will become more important in the next quadrennial, which would hurt Alissa and maybe even Mirai's chances and help those of Gao and Zawadzki.