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icellist
11-24-2010, 01:27 AM
Phaneuf, Korpi and Nagasu placed fourth at their first GP event and can all still qualify if they when gold. If Czisny places higher than fifth and wins the tie breaker, she earns her spot at the finals. If Asada wins gold, she ruins everyone elses chances for the finals and Czisny will probably go.

What do you think will happen??????

So far: Phaneauf has a great SP but boring LP, Korpi has great SP and Lp but consistency is lacking, Nagasu will probably win the short but her injury may hold her back for the long, Czisny also lacks consistency, and Asada is world champion but a disaster this year.

I'm very interested at what you guys think. And for all you Czisny lovers, please take consideration about her consistency.

smarts1
11-24-2010, 01:41 AM
It's between Czisny or Nagasu. Phaneuf might shake things up a little, but I doubt she will. Mao is reworking her technique so I doubt she'll pull out anything good here. Korpi should be lucky to land on the podium here.

AliasJohnDoe
11-24-2010, 01:43 AM
Another strange scenario:

If Czisny(15pts) is 6th(5pts) and Imai(7pts) is first(15pts), Imai makes the GPF with 22pts. Even if Phaneuf, Korpi or Nagasu (9pts) placed 2nd(13pts). Imai would have the higher placement in a tie for points.

AliasJohnDoe
11-24-2010, 01:55 AM
Ladies GPF possibilities: Czisny, Phaneuf, Korpi, Nagasu and Imai

Ando - 15-15-30pts 346.68
Kostner - 15-11-26pts 319.48
Murakami - 11-15 -26pts 315.09
Suzuki - 13-13-26pts 335.60
Flatt - 13-13-26pts 323.90
Wagner - 7-11-18pts 310.75

TEB Ladies:
Czisny - 15pts 172.37
Phaneuf - 9pts 156.24
Korpi - 9pts 148.44
Nagasu - 9pts 146.23
Imai - 7pts 154.54
Asada - 3pts 133.40

geod2
11-24-2010, 02:00 AM
Impossible to say with much confidence who will go, although it's fun to speculate I guess.
Too many moving parts in the equation and too many factors with the skaters themselves (e.g. consistency, injuries) whose outcomes are unknowable in advance.

luCN
11-24-2010, 06:07 AM
It's a pitty mao can't come to GPF:(

I really like Korpi's program,hope she can make it.

Fallcolor
11-24-2010, 06:16 AM
Woah. 3 japanese ladies advance to the GPF and not one of them is Mao?!

TwizzlerS
11-24-2010, 06:31 AM
I'd place my money on Czisny making the GPF. She has 3 chances (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) to qualify and in all cases it doesn't matter how anyone else does. She also has a chance if she places 4th but that depends on a tiebreak. Phaneuf, Nagasu, and Korpi can only go if they win and Czisny places 5th or below or they beat her in a tie break if she places 4th. It just seems that the odds are in Czisny's favor in spite of the odds of her skating clean programs.

wonderlen
11-24-2010, 03:50 PM
I think Cizney will be the last qualifier. As bad as her tendency to bomb badly, she doesn have a big cushion. And given what the mark that are posted so far, with only two skaters cracking the 170+ mark (Ando and Suzuki), she should have no problem landing on the podium. Pauneff is a Canadian version of Cizney, but without the nicer spins and spiral.
Mao will prob make a mistake in both SP and LP, but might land on podium if the others flaters too. Given all the history of the ladies, that will happen for sure.

olympic
11-24-2010, 04:08 PM
The problem is - Czisny, Korpi and Phaneuf all are capable of really bombing badly. It really depends on which skater shows up. And I'm totally uncertain of Nagasu's condition at this point. Asada is the best of the bunch but the last 2 seasons she's performed badly in the Fall. I think it will come down to the skater who exhibits the least amount of nerves

ETA - Would Ando withdraw due to her back injury? She really looked like she was in pain at CoR. The only other possible withdrawals would be Kostner and Flatt but I think they are healing nicely?

pinky166
11-24-2010, 11:35 PM
I'll say Czisny not because I think she will skate well here (she might but it's so hard to tell with her), but because she probably doesn't have to skate that well here to qualify. Unless Mao, Mirai, Cynthia, and Kiira all skate lights out here, which seems unlikely, Alissa should be able to finish 3rd or 4th just by skating decently.

ks777
11-25-2010, 02:04 AM
Alissa will qualify.

Vash01
11-25-2010, 07:08 AM
Czisny has the lead. I think she will qualify even with a 3rd place finish.

Too bad Mao is out of GPF. May be she needs that time to improve.

olympic
11-25-2010, 02:26 PM
Czisny has the lead. I think she will qualify even with a 3rd place finish.

Too bad Mao is out of GPF. May be she needs that time to improve.

Czisny goes definitely if she's 1-3. I think she'd get to the GPF even with a 4th place finish -IF - Mao or Haruki win OR any one of Mirai, Cynthia or Kiira win and she manages to beat them on point totals.

wonderlen
11-25-2010, 03:29 PM
The problem is - Czisny, Korpi and Phaneuf all are capable of really bombing badly. It really depends on which skater shows up. And I'm totally uncertain of Nagasu's condition at this point. Asada is the best of the bunch but the last 2 seasons she's performed badly in the Fall. I think it will come down to the skater who exhibits the least amount of nerves

ETA - Would Ando withdraw due to her back injury? She really looked like she was in pain at CoR. The only other possible withdrawals would be Kostner and Flatt but I think they are healing nicely?

I hope Ando do not withdraw. This is her big chance to get the GPF title, she is capable of and long over due for her with out Mao or Yuna. She does have 3 weeks between COR and final so hope she has a good rest. I think only Suzuki and Flatt will stand in her way, and both are easily beatable if she skates like in COR again.